Phillies Nation

Six weeks from Friday, the trade deadline will pass. If the Phillies hope to make another run in the postseason they will almost certainly need to make at least one or two moves to pick up additional pieces – starters, relievers, bench bats.

Yesterday we ran through just about every one of the starting pitchers that could potentially be dealt by July 31, but what would it take to get them? The package the Phils would have to shell out depends on a number of things, including the team on the other end of the deal, the years left on his contract and most importantly, the quality of the pitcher. A deal for Brad Penny would look much different from one for Cliff Lee – and light years from what it would take to get Roy Halladay.

The depth the Phillies have developed on the farm allows them to be a major player at the deadline, assuming their targets are available in a trade. There are several top-flight minor leaguers that teams will ask for in return and be flatly denied – players that are too important to the Phillies future to be traded for a rental pitcher or a right-handed bat off the bench.

From prized to piece

Right-handed pitchers Kyle Drabek and Jason Knapp immediately come to mind as the two pitchers the team would most like to hold. Knapp is not yet 19 and already projects with a mid-90s fastball and three other pitches that are average or above-average, making him one of the few prospects who might be completely off limits. Drabek has only taken three turns at double-A Reading, but from all reports is continuing to grow and become the prized pitching prospect of the organization.

Outfielders Dominic Brown (Clearwater) and Michael Taylor (Reading) are the two bats most likely to be the centerpiece of a deal over the next six weeks. Both have the combination of power and speed in the outfield that leaves other teams salivating. The Phils would obviously like to keep them both in the system and they would probably be untouchable unless the return is a pitcher in the mold of Roy Oswalt, Lee or Halladay.

Perhaps the most intriguing name that might be involved in a deal is Carlos Carrasco, the Venezuelan hurler that appears to have stalled at the top level of the minor leagues in Lehigh Valley. Carrasco, still considered the top pitcher in the system, was bumped by Brown from his perch as the No. 1 Phils prospect (according to Baseball America) this season. His 5.57 ERA with the Iron Pigs this year gives reason to doubt whether he will become the top-end starter most had expected. But he could very well turn out to be the pitching centerpiece of a deal, giving a team hope of gaining an ace down the road.

Shortstop Jason Donald and catcher Lou Marson have been underwhelming this year at Lehigh Valley, but either could work well as a secondary piece in a deal. Unfortunately, both were placed on the disabled list a week ago, which could severely hurt their value as trade chips.

There are a few more prospects who could factor as either No. 2 or 3 options in a trade, including catcher Travis D’Arnaud, right-handed pitcher Vance Worley and left-handed pitcher Joe Savery. None of them would command top billing in a deal, unless it was for a small piece in return.

Three players from the Phils major league roster will also be at the forefront in trade discussions as the deadline approaches, giving the team another dimension in trade talks. left-handed pitchers JA Happ and Antonio Bastardo have both shown they are – at least on some level – prepared to pitch in the majors. And John Mayberry, Jr. is about to get a long, extended look in the outfield, giving the team a chance to bump his value up a couple of notches, as well.

Putting it together

So what would it take to get a starter?

For one of the elite talents (injured or not) – Halladay, Oswalt, Lee, Jake Peavy, Erik Bedard – it would probably take one of the big bats (Taylor, Brown), as well as one of the top pitchers (Carrasco, Happ, Bastardo) and someone like Marson or Donald. For example, when the White Sox had a deal in place to get Jake Peavy, they were offering Aaron Poreda (No. 63 by Baseball America), Clayton Richard (on the ChiSox) and two more prospects. The Phillies equivalent would be Carrasco, Happ and a few mid-level prospects. The package needed for any of the elite pitchers would be somewhere right around there.

Someone like Brad Penny, who is right now blocking John Smoltz and Clay Buchholz from joining the Red Sox rotation, could come as cheap as Donald if he comes back healthy before the deadline. Jarrod Washburn wouldn’t be far off, maybe taking Bastardo and a lower prospect.

The Phillies have six weeks to make the necessary moves, and there is plenty of time for trade values to rise and fall before then, but if they are going to go all in and strengthen the major league club, the farm system could take a significant hit this summer.