Scouting Your Poor, Pressing Phillie Offense
Posted by Tim Malcolm, Thu, June 18, 2009 09:00 AM | Comments: 17
Analysis, Posts
If you can throw your breaking ball a lot, you too can beat the Phillies.
It’s pretty simple. Let’s look at the five worst starting pitching assignments against the Phillies this season:
Chris Young, April 17
Game score: 15
Young allowed nine hits in 3.2 innings, among them three doubles, a triple and a home run. He threw only six sliders — everything else was a fastball or changeup. The fastballs scored in the high-80s with very little horizontal movement. He was up and down, easy to strike, and very easy to guess. In a June 3 start he allowed three runs on five hits, throwing twice as many sliders and even more changeups, plotting them around the zone. He even mixed in a curveball.
Shairon Martis, April 27
Game score: 22
After a successful first start against the Phils, Martis allowed seven runs on eight hits, walking four in five innings. In the first start Martis threw 23 percent of his pitches as sliders. In the second start he threw just 16 percent sliders. The fastball tracked in around 88 with a changeup at near 80. And the slider, ranging from 75 to 85, had very little movement horizontally and vertically. In the first start his slider hit different spots throughout the zone, and he used a curveball. He didn’t use the curve when he got lit up.
Daniel Cabrera, May 16
Game score: 22
Cabrera has never been a great pitcher, so there’s one red flag. He had one excusable start against the Phils in April (one earned in five innings), then came back with this stinker: Seven runs on eight hits (two home runs, three doubles, a triple) in five innings. Of the 107 pitches Cabrera threw in this game, 27 were curveballs (25 percent). That’s not a bad ratio, but the curves never went too low, always remaining in the strike zone. He threw fewer changeups, but they came in close to the same height as the fastball. To be short, Cabrera his hittable any time.
Ross Detwiler, May 29
Game score: 23
This is odd. Detwiler allowed five runs on 10 hits (four doubles) in four innings. He threw just 68 pitches, and 18 were sliders (26 percent). Here’s the rub: He only threw two changeups. And because his slider and fastball hit such different spots at such different speeds and paths, it’s pretty easy to pick him up. In his best starts he threw many more fastballs and changeups.
Shairon Martis, May 30
Game score: 19
Martis again. Sense a real bad trend here? In this start he threw even fewer sliders — four of the 71 pitches he threw, or 5 percent. Here he had a fastball that remained high and at about 88. His changeup barely dipped below the heart of the plate. The result? Seven runs on seven hits (two homers, two doubles) in four innings.
Compare these five starts to the best starts against the Phillies — Johan Santana, Derek Lowe, Aaron Harang, Hiroki Kuroda and last night by Scott Richmond — and you’ll see a large amount of sliders or sinkers — breaking pitches that either break wildly horizontally or vertically. In short, you’ll see performances that keep the Phillies completely off balance.
Yes, it takes good pitching to beat the Phillies, but sometimes it simply takes the right ratio of fastballs to breaking pitches, plus the ability to attack the plate early. Most Phillie hitters are guessing hitters; they automatically like swinging at 3-1 counts. Look close at each game — Jayson Werth has two patterned swings, one very low, one reaching out; Ryan Howard seems to have two, as well; Raul Ibanez is easy to beat with high cheese.
The point is it’s very easy to scout against the Phillies. Maybe there’s a reason why the worst pitching performances against the Phillies have almost exclusively come from the Nationals. Just as there’s certainly a reason pitchers who aren’t afraid to change pitch types are likely to succeed against the Phillies. It’s becoming criminally elementary.
Posts: 0 beta sigma shag
isn’t that what a lot of people on here have been saying all year, plate discpline . Richmond last night did not throw a strike 3-1 or even 2-2, sliders in the dirt, it is not about not hitting breaking stuff, it is not able to balls pitched out of the strike zone. This has been the scouting report for three years on the Phillies and yet they still seem to win some games
Posted: 09:19 AM on June 18, 2009
Posts: 0 Doug D.
Tim, you are right on here. This team is a fastball-hitting team. I have my “no high cheese’ list, and now you’re adding Raul to it. As far as I’m concerned, nobody should be swinging at the high cheese. I like Gary Matthews’ mantra of “high curveballs and low fastballs, not the other way around.” I can’t tell you how many hanging curves the Phils either take for a strike or swing at and pull foul. And it all comes from looking fastball-only. I know that 2-0 and 3-1 are, in theory, “fastball counts” in the hitter’s mind, but the effective hurlers “pitch backwards” to the Phils…Another problem at home is the desire to homer in front of the home fans. This team gets a little “pull crazy” at home. And now it seems to have affected Raul. I guess they think we want to see homeruns all the time. Actually, as fans, we appreciate the rallies more. They keep the excitement level up for a longer time, and they force the opposition pitchers’ to use up bullets.
Posted: 09:23 AM on June 18, 2009
Posts: 0 Morris Buttermaker
When does Milt Thompson become accountable for this? The hitters just seem to make the same mistake over and over again. And nothing is done about it. Last night was really hard to watch.
Posted: 09:37 AM on June 18, 2009
Posts: 0 Philly Texan
“Yet they still seem to win some games”? You mean like nearly 60 percent of their games?
Let’s not go over board, folks. I agree last night was frustrating, especially since Richmond didn’t seem to have great stuff.
But let’s give them a break. They hadn’t seen this pitcher before and clearly were having trouble picking up that curve ball he was throwing. Let’s not blow it too out of proportion. Is it that the Phillies can’t hit sliders or is just that ptichers with really good breaking pitches are also usually really good pitchers…..let’s also remember that they pasted Johan last week with four homers and six earned runs.
This team can hit anyone. I agree they’re not always the most patient team, but they have been patient at times. They beat Boston on Sunday by being patient and working walks in that 7th inning rally.
And what are we blaming milt for? Phils are second in the NL in runs scored and first in homers and a host of offensive categories.
They blew a game they should have won on Tuesday. And last night was a just a bad loss. It happens.
Posted: 09:50 AM on June 18, 2009
Posts: 0 Maverick
Tim,
According to ESPN you are a blogger and thus have no journalistic standards and your integrity is questionable.
Therefore, I ask that you cite your sources according to the standards set forth by the MLA.
Where did you get this pitching data….thats a pretty detailed scouting report you have. If what you are saying is true this is going to be a problem for the Phils unless they make adjustments.
Posted: 09:57 AM on June 18, 2009
Posts: 0 Don M
“…Richmond didn’t seem to have great stuff” ?
I thought his stuff was pretty much FILTHY all night long
you win some, you lose some.. let hope they win today
Posted: 10:11 AM on June 18, 2009
Posts: 0 Justin
BREAKING NEWS!!!!
Raul Ibanez to the DL with strained groin, John Mayberry recalled and playing RF today batting 7th, J Werth in Left.
Posted: 10:20 AM on June 18, 2009
Posts: 0 Don M
That Ibanez DL trip is confirmed…
damn
Why Mayberry in RF .. its the tougher Defensive position.. and Werth is used to playing it
Posted: 10:23 AM on June 18, 2009
Posts: 0 Mark B
Philly Texan makes some good points, as these numbers indicate:
In 2006 Phillies scored 865 runs – 1st in the NL, even ahead of the Mets who finished about 10 games ahead of them in the standings.
In 2007 Phillies scored 892 runs – 1st in the NL, 2nd overall behind the Yankees.
In 2008 Philies scored 799 runs – tied with the Mets for 2nd in the NL, trailing only the Cubs.
In 2009 as of today – Phillies have scored 341 runs, 1st in the NL and 4th overall.
Posted: 10:27 AM on June 18, 2009
Posts: 0 pb
I guess it wasn’t his shoes then….
Don M I agee, I don’t get why he’s not in LF either
Posted: 10:35 AM on June 18, 2009
Posts: 0 Don M
Maybe Mayberry is used to RF, so they don’t want to change EVERYTHING.. with him already feeling the pressure of the Big Leagues?
Werth can play anywhere.. but RF is the more imporatant position, so it surprising..
BUT.. Mayberry played RF, Werth LF in the Yankees series..
today, going against a RHP .. why wouldn’t they start Stairs or Dobbs though? Unless they are starting Dobbs at 3b or something. .. anyone see the lineup posted anywhere?
I hope this doesn’t hurt Raul’s All-Star votes
Posted: 10:39 AM on June 18, 2009
Posts: 0 Justin
Feliz is starting at 3rd today.
Posted: 10:51 AM on June 18, 2009
Posts: 0 Don M
Yesterday it had the Jays throwing a RHP … today it says that its a LHP making his Major League debut..
Posted: 11:16 AM on June 18, 2009
Posts: 0 Bruce
Tim seems to overlook the fact that a pitcher like Chris Young has had success over the years against many clubs regardless of his game plan. The former Princeton University basketball and baseball star is very intelligent and uniquely talented. Most ML clubs will have problems with him.
Also I like to add that Toronto’s 29 year old rookie, Scott Richmond was impressive and should receive credit here for his effort. His curveball was outstanding last night and made even more effective by mixing in his low 90′s fastball. His control was good and made the Phillies’ hitters looked futile in their swings. There were countless times the hitters went chasing pitches in the dirt topped by the image of “Worthless” Werth down on one knee after trying to fish for pitch that bounced before homeplate. (chuckles)
The posters here are correct in commenting on the Phillies lack of discipline at the plate. Usually that is when a slump begins. And unfortunately we are seeing that with certain players and spreading throughout the lineup.
Posted: 11:38 AM on June 18, 2009
Posts: 0 Markos Fuson
Breaking news…. it is a medical fact that steriods excentuate the risks of tissue damage occuring during physical excercise. Raul Ibanez has just been placed on the 15 day disabled list with a groin pull/tear….His offensive production has skyrocketed has skyrocketed this year even though he should be diminishing in production due to his age….what could this coincidence and affiliated tissue damage to his groin be evidence of????
Posted: 01:15 PM on June 18, 2009
Posts: 0 Dave
It is also a medical fact that aging excentuates the risk of tissue damage during physical exercise.
Also, I’d like to see your data re: steriod use and tissue injuries, troll.
Posted: 02:23 PM on June 18, 2009
Posts: 0 Dan
3 of those 5 performances were Nationals pitchers and the same guy twice
Posted: 01:40 PM on June 26, 2009