A Look at What the Phillies Gave Up
Posted by Ben Seal, Thu, July 30, 2009 11:46 AM | Comments: 97
Minor Leagues, Posts
The rumors began flying weeks ago. If the Phillies were going to pick up a frontline starter at the trade deadline it would ravage the farm system, picking off all the top prospects in one fell swoop and leaving the club’s future uncertain. While it did take a quartet of minor leaguers to bring Cliff Lee and Ben Francisco into the fold yesterday, it wasn’t exactly the four players that had the Delaware Valley split on whether a trade was necessary. Top pitching prospect Kyle Drabek will still be wearing red pinstripes in the near future. Top position prospect Dominic Brown can still look forward to a career in the Phillies outfield, as can the man with the monster stats, Michael Taylor. And J.A. Happ, the potential NL Rookie of the Year, still has a comfortable spot in the rotation – at least for now.
So what did the Phillies give up to acquire the reigning AL Cy Young winner? According to Baseball America, they sent their 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 10th-ranked prospects to the Midwest. The package they gave up is considerable, primarily because three of those players – Carlos Carrasco, Lou Marson and Jason Donald – were playing at triple-A Lehigh Valley, just a call-up away from joining the big club. But the actual impact on the Phils minor league system is not as big as it might seem. Here’s a look at what Philly is losing with each of these prospects.
Carlos Carrasco, RHP – At age 22, it is still far too early to say whether Carrasco is a disappointment, but it is fair to say that his progression through the ranks was not smooth. He boasted the best fastball and changeup in the system, two pitches that made Cole Hamels a World Series MVP. There was plenty to like about the stuff Carrasco brought onto the mound for each of his starts. But with that fantastic arm came a lack of composure, the one characteristic that almost always defines quality major league pitchers. He was infamous in the minors for letting one bad pitch snowball into a disastrous inning, allowing his great ability to get lost in the fray. Though he made three trips to the Futures Game before this year, Carrasco’s performance with the Iron Pigs was inconsistent. He left Lehigh Valley with a 6-9 record and a 5.18 ERA.
There is plenty of reason to believe that Carrasco will settle down, mature as a pitcher and harness his skills. If he can, he could very well be a solid No. 3 or No. 4 starter with a slightly higher ceiling. But after 5 years of ups and downs in the Phillies organization, he became expendable when a consistent ace came calling.
Lou Marson, C – There will always be high demand around baseball for a catcher that can hit the ball, and Marson was just that. Last season he hit .314 in a full season at double-A Reading and in his first taste of triple-A this year he was hitting .294 in 63 games. Marson even showed glimmers of his offensive prowess in brief call-ups to Philadelphia, hitting .286 in 21 AB. Defensively he was more than capable, earning praise from scouts and coaches alike for his ability behind the plate. It was very likely that he would be competing with Carlos Ruiz to be the starting catcher for the Phillies on Opening Day 2010. But while Marson was a prized prospect, rated No. 3 by Baseball America, projecting his talent to the major league level was not easy. In 1609 career AB in the minors he hit just 26 home runs and slugged just .388. He also did not have much doubles power, which often translates into home run power once a player reaches his physical peak.
It looked like Marson would be a light-hitting major league catcher with a decent average and little to no pop. He could have competed with Ruiz, but not necessarily stolen the job away from the Phils’ current catcher. The Phillies need not worry about losing their top catching prospect, as Travis d’Arnaud is rising through the system. At age 20 in single-A Lakewood he has already slugged 12 homers and 56 RBI with a .419 slugging percentage. Many scouts had him rated as the best catcher in the system even with Marson still involved. By the time d’Arnaud is ready, the Phillies might be glad they don’t have Marson blocking his path to the bigs.
Jason Donald, SS – For many reasons, Donald was the easiest of these four prospects to let slip away. There was no need for his services at shortstop in the immediate future, with mainstay Jimmy Rollins still dazzling with his glove even when his bat goes silent. Donald was a bit old for a prospect at 24, meaning he has likely gone through almost all of his development already. He is a smooth fielder at short, but had no experience shifting over to third base where the Phillies could have used him. This season has been a difficult one for Donald, after missing time due to injury and struggling with just a .236 average. Scouts have raved about his overall game, saying that he profiles as a starter for several years in the majors with good offensive potential.
That potential would never be reached in Philadelphia, where applicants for middle infield positions need not apply. He could very well be up with the Indians in the near future, but fans won’t miss his services. Much like 2B Adrian Cardenas, who was shipped to the Athletics last season for Joe Blanton, two All-Star roadblocks in the Phillies’ infield made Donald expendable.
Jason Knapp, RHP – A fireballer at age 18, Knapp is the type of high-ceiling prospect that the Indians were clamoring for, hoping to hit it big years down the road. They’ll have a good chance, but projecting any pitcher’s effectiveness in three or four years is a difficult process, especially such a young pitcher. A quick breeze through Knapp’s stats with Lakewood this season make it clear why Cleveland fancied him as the best pitching prospect the Phillies could offer, even above Kyle Drabek, according to some reports. In 85.1 innings he struck out 111 batters and allowed just 63 hits. For an inexperienced pitcher with such a power arm, his 39 walks were not high at all. Somehow he left Lakewood with an ERA of 4.01 and a 2-7 record despite such impressive peripheral numbers. He checked in at 6-foot-5, 235 pounds with some more growing to do, so the dominant arm is very real.
Knapp could turn out to be a frontline starter, as his 11.5 K/9 is already elite. Or he could be sidetracked by injury along the way, as he is right now and as Kyle Drabek was in 2007. Either way, he is far from his pro debut and likely won’t be ready until the Phillies current nucleus has already dissipated.
Final Thoughts – The four players going to Cleveland all have the potential to become solid major leaguers. There is always a hefty price tag on Cy Young winners. By holding onto J.A. Happ and Kyle Drabek, the Phillies managed to keep the homegrown talent for their rotation intact. And with Taylor and Brown – and Anthony Gose – still in the system, the future of the Phils’ outfield looks very bright. They lost plenty of talent in this deal, but they could afford to. The farm system takes a hit, but not one from which it can’t bounce back quickly.
Posts: 0 Manny
Bob, I completely agree… I wouldn’t bet against them, but talk about an overhyped team!!
I said it before the season started and I still think this is what will happen… Yankees-Phillies WS 2009. (J-roll predicted it too, so it MUST be true)
Posted: 03:15 PM on July 30, 2009
Posts: 0 Bob
MLB TR is trying to confirm that George Sherill has been traded to LA. Good move for their pen.
While I think the Phils are better, Id obviously rather them get Sherill than Halladay.
Does that pretty much only leave the Red Sox as JP’s possible trade partner for Halladay? He may get fired just for that!
Posted: 03:16 PM on July 30, 2009
Posts: 1372 Pat Gallen
Thanks Don M, wasnt sure about that 40 man rule. It probably puts time on their arb clock I would assume.
Posted: 03:18 PM on July 30, 2009
Posts: 0 NJ
The Dodgers are already flaming out and the Giants who have so much buzz around them may be over-estimated as a legitimate force to go deep into the playoffs.
Don M- looking back the Phils made moves prior to the cut off point last year to get Marson and Golson up. From the good old ‘fictionary’ wikipedia:
Each Major League Baseball team maintains both a 25-man roster and a 40-man roster of players. Players on the 25-man roster are eligible to play in official major league games throughout the season. The 40-man roster includes the players on the 25-man roster plus as many as 15 players who are either on the team’s 15-day disabled list (see below) or who are in the team’s minor league system. From September 1 through the end of the regular season, any player on the 40-man roster (also referred to as the “expanded roster”) is eligible to play in an official regular season game. Many young players make their Major League debuts in this way, as “September call-ups”. Players must be on a team’s 25-man roster as of August 31 to be eligible for post-season play. The only exception is that a player on the 60-day disabled list may be replaced by another player from the team’s 40-man roster (as of August 31) who plays the same position.
Posted: 03:21 PM on July 30, 2009
Posts: 0 Don M
So if we want to place Drabek, Taylor, Berry, etc… on the 40-man roster, to make them eligable for SEPT callups
we would have to remove players that are currently on that last.. and I imagine that when we remove those players, other teams get a chance to claim them?
I’m not sure how THIS, along with the RULE 5 draft all works..
Players on the 40-man include:
Joe Bisenius (who Arbuckle was a HUGE fan of)
Kyle Kendrick
Rodrigo Lopez
Steve Register
Jack Taschner
Tyler Walker
….
so it looks like there are a few names there that we wouldn’t exactly miss if we replaced them with Drabek, etc.
Posted: 03:29 PM on July 30, 2009
Posts: 0 Georgie
Last night at Reading their 1st baseman Brian Stavisky was 3 for 3 with 2 HRs, a double, and a walk. His career avg is .307, and he’s hitting .313 with 7 HRs and 30 RBI since June 1. Not bad at 1st either, maybe they should think about him as a call-up?
Also, Quintin Berry=FAST!
Posted: 03:32 PM on July 30, 2009
Posts: 0 NJ
I doubt Drabek will get a September call-up, I imagine he’ll be rested and sent to the AFL if the organisation wants to give him some work.
I think Berry has a good shot to be called-up, Taylor certainly does though I’d assume the Phils are going to keep as many emergency arms as they can on the 40-man roster.
Here’s the full page which has sections on waivers and minor league assignments. Tough to get your noodle around some of this…
Posted: 03:34 PM on July 30, 2009
Posts: 0 Jeff
Now I would trade Happ and Drabek for Halladay. Nice rotation. I pray they dont mess with happ in the rotation. Martinez days are gone. He has been horrible for the Mets. Happ is growing. Pitched great again last night. Leave him be and put Pedro in the bullpen. He will get lit up anyway.
Posted: 03:37 PM on July 30, 2009
Posts: 0 Geoff
Bisenius, Register, Kendrick have no business being on a major league 40-man roster.
Posted: 03:37 PM on July 30, 2009
Posts: 0 Geoff
Itd be really odd if they put Happ – the man they wanted to keep – in teh pen. very odd.
Posted: 03:38 PM on July 30, 2009
Posts: 0 Jeff
For all the people stating that Happ should automatically move to the pen, let me ask you this. If JA Happ has a sub-3 ERA and Jamie Moyer’s ERA is close to 6, you would rather have Moyer pitching just because he has more experience???? Moyer got absolutely shelled in the playoffs last year, with the exception of the Rays. The only time Jamie has success is when he faced an over-patient lineup. I love the guy, but lets face it. He’s been without a doubt the worst Phillies pitcher this year, and to be honest, he may be the worst NL starter this year. JA Happ would be your #4 guy in the playoffs, so he would pitch at a max, once per series. I don’t think you can pitch much worse than Jamie did last year in the playoffs. It just bothers me that JA Happ has done nothing short of of OUTSTANDING job, and people still say “well he’s still inexperienced” and “he hasn’t started that many games.” The guy has something like 14 starts and has a sub 3 ERA!! And, don’t tell me Jamie Moyer is “hot” right now. He had a good outing vs the Marlins and DBacks, a solid outing vs the Mets, and a few terrible outings vs the Cubs and Reds thrown in there. Trust me, i went to the Cubs and Reds games, and they were both recent. He pitched very poorly in those. I love Jamie Moyer. He’s a great guy, but he does not deserve to be in the rotation over JA Happ. Its only hurting the team.
Posted: 03:44 PM on July 30, 2009
Posts: 0 Don M
Georgie, were you the one I mentioned to check out Berry? Since Taylor got called up to AAA the day you were going to Reading?
And then some Mets fan started bashing Quintin Berry that he doesn’t hit for any power … which had nothing to do with anything I had ever said..
…but what I told him, and I still hope, is that Berry gets called-up and steals 5 bases in 3 games vs. the Mets the second weekend in sept
Posted: 03:45 PM on July 30, 2009
Posts: 0 Geoff
Agreed, why would Jamie Moyer still be in the rotation? even over Rodrigo Lopez who gives you quality outing after quality outing.
Posted: 03:46 PM on July 30, 2009
Posts: 0 NJ
Agree with you on Happ Jeff, I hear him described as a poor mans Andy Pettitte but he’s our poor mans Andy Pettitte that’ll turn in sub 4 ERA, 200 Inning starter for a long time to come.
I think if Pedro is really intent on making a comeback he’s in a perfect situation to go to the pen where he can resemble the Pedro of years past, this way he can let it all hang out in short focused aggressive spots using his two great pitches, instead of having to work so hard just to make ‘quality’ starts.
Posted: 03:46 PM on July 30, 2009
Posts: 0 NJ
That’s pretty harsh Geoff, Register and Kendrick would be snapped up off waivers and Bisenius has been hurt so much we don’t really know what we have there.
Expect Lopez to be moved, he cost virtually nothing and could easily be moved for a prospect with some upside, it’s tough to see how a roster spot can be spared for him.
Posted: 03:53 PM on July 30, 2009
Posts: 0 Geoff
Oh man, if those two guys would be snapped up on waivers lets do it…make some room for the younger pups.
Posted: 03:55 PM on July 30, 2009
Posts: 0 psujoe
Why does everyone keep saying the Phils wanted to keep Happ? It’s just the opposite. The Phils offerred up Happ and wouldn’t budge on Drabeck.
Dodgers gave up Josh Bell and Steve Johnson for Sherrill
Posted: 04:05 PM on July 30, 2009
Posts: 0 Manny
I agree with what you said about Happ, Jeff.
Posted: 04:09 PM on July 30, 2009
Posts: 0 Manny
Random thought: Oh Cliff Lee, you’re gonna love this defense!!!
Posted: 04:19 PM on July 30, 2009
Posts: 0 Havoc
Before we continue with the Happ discussion just saw what psujoe posted. With the dodgers getting Sherrill they won’t be trading for Halladay, now if he just ends up with the Angels or Toronto instead of the Red sox we won’t have to worry about him at all.
Posted: 04:21 PM on July 30, 2009
Posts: 1372 Pat Gallen
Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus just tweeted this:
“Ive talked to 2 FOTs this afternoon who think that Philly is going to be the last call Jays make on Halladay and that they could still do it”
Posted: 04:21 PM on July 30, 2009
Posts: 0 Terrence
Cubs and Pirates closing on a deal that would send John Grabow and Tom Gorzelanny to the Cubs.
The Steve Johnson and Josh Bell to Orioles for George Sherrill likely takes out the Dodgers out of the Halladay sweepstakes. So basically only two options left. Either Halladay stays put with the Jays or the Red Sox acquire. More likely that Halladay stays with Jays.
The Dodgers made a nice move to a depleted bullpen but you have to remember he can’t pitch 2 innings. He is a closer and with broxton there he’ll be the setup man. Still nice but dodgers still have holes after billingsley and kershaw and there bullpen is still depleted not to mention Joe Torre never uses his bullpen properly
Posted: 04:23 PM on July 30, 2009
Posts: 0 Havoc
I want to say you’re dreaming Pat, but… I don’t know do you think Amaro has it in him? I mean he’s already pulled off the greatest heist of the year… Could we see the rookie gm bamboozle two teams maybe snagging Halladay for a Happ, Taylor/Brown discount? If the Jays came back to me on the last day of the deadline you’ve got to grind them into dust.
Posted: 04:27 PM on July 30, 2009
Posts: 0 psujoe
LMAO if the Jays call the Phils. Any guesses on what the Phils would be willing to trade? I’m fine with our situation except closer and Bruntlett, but you’d have to think the Phils would be favored to win 2 WS with Halladay, Lee and Hamels.
We didnt’ do Happ, Drabek and Brown. What do you think we could give up?
Posted: 04:32 PM on July 30, 2009
Posts: 0 Georgie
Don, yeah, Taylor got called up the day I went to Reading, Berry that night had their only hit through several innings, and was called out stealing 2nd, although he appeared to be safe. Damn, I keep looking for instant replays when I’m there, you get really used to getting a 2nd, 3rd, 4th look at that stuff on the tube. Last night he beat out a bunt, we were at the first baseline, looked out to me, called safe though, big argument between 1st base ump and Portland manager.
Stutes started for the Phils, fastball up around 94-95 through 5 innings, gave up three runs though, but he seemed pretty poised, and they have a reliever, Chance Chapman, who has looked pretty good both times I’ve seen him.
Posted: 04:34 PM on July 30, 2009
Posts: 0 Richie Allen
Lee, Happ & Drabek for Halladay.
Posted: 04:35 PM on July 30, 2009
Posts: 0 Don M
I would still move Happ, Brown, ? for Halladay…
Toronto would be better off waiting until the offseason though, and maybe working a deal with the Yankees .. Chamberlain and –?– for Halladay
NYY wants a World Series title REAL BAD
Posted: 04:38 PM on July 30, 2009
Posts: 0 Manny
OUT OF YOUR MIND, Richie Allen. I hope that’s a joke.
Posted: 04:39 PM on July 30, 2009
Posts: 1372 Pat Gallen
Havoc: I’m just posting what I see. Unless Amaro can fleece the Jays like he sort of did with the Indians and hold on to most of the top prospects, then maybe. But thats probably a very, very long shot.
It’s obvious Ricciardi is completely delusional if thats the case. He must be so hard on Drabek it’s not even funny. Why else would that even be revisited.
Posted: 04:40 PM on July 30, 2009
Posts: 0 Terrence
Around the WEB:
- Red Sox in heavy pursuit of Indians catcher Victor Martinez
- John Mayberry Jr. and Steven Register have been demoted to make room for
Ben Francisco and Cliff Lee.
- Rich Dubee opened the possibility yesterday that J.A. Happ could be the odd-
man out, for the simple fact that he has recent experience as a reliever
- Royals acquired Josh Anderson from Tigers for cash
- Cubs acquire John Grabow and Tom Gorzelanny from Pirates
- Red Sox also hot in pursuit of Adrian Gonzalez although 15-25% chance of it happening
- Mariners likely to keep Jarrod Washburn or they want Phil Hughes or Joba Chamberlain from Yankees
- “If we get through today and we’re not anywhere, that would be a pretty good sign that it’s done,” Blue Jays general manager J.P. Ricciardi told FOXSports.com at 4 p.m. ET Thursday, 24 hours before the non-waiver trade deadline.
- Omar Minaya apologizes
Posted: 04:40 PM on July 30, 2009
Posts: 0 psujoe
Phils would have to be willing to increae the payroll from this year by about 10 or so million not counting Vic and Blanton’s increases. I don’t see it happening. We can dream.
Posted: 04:42 PM on July 30, 2009
Posts: 0 psujoe
Ok, so now Rich Dubee mentions Happ may go to the pen so people can take it seriously.
Posted: 04:45 PM on July 30, 2009
Posts: 0 Georgie
And I haven’t been to a big league game since the Vet and Camden Yard, but I swear I felt like the only person there who was actually watching the game. I understand little kids not being interested, but most adults weren’t even watching half the time. I don’t mind socializing, but when there’s a baseball game going on right in front of me, I don’t really want to have lengthy, non-baseball related discussions with the guys next to me, then have them asking what just happened. WATCH THE GAME! Sorry, it’s a bit of a pet peeve for me.
Posted: 04:51 PM on July 30, 2009
Posts: 0 Terrence
George Sherrill: 32 years old, 20/23 SV, 0-1, .240ERA, 39K, 13BB, 1.14WHIP
Sherrill will either be a setup guy for Dodgers or share closer duties with Broxton.
From MLBTR
Josh Bell is a well-regarded 22 year-old power prospect, though Baseball America is unsure whether he can stick at third base. BA projects Johnson as “a big league reliever or back-end starter.”
Lot of dodgers on their boards say nice move to solidify bullpen this year and next but doesn’t completey heal depleted bullpen and they gave up a good guy in bello and johnson.
Posted: 04:52 PM on July 30, 2009
Posts: 0 Don M
.. This is why I don’t understand the Happ to the bullpen thing..
Happ is clearly a better starting pitcher than Moyer right now (WIN TOTALS aside) … the job that Happ would get would be that of a long-reliever, which is only used when you are UP a whole ton of runs, DOWN a whole ton of runs, or when you go to extra innings..
We know that Moyer can often give 3 effective innings.. seems to me, he would be perfect for that type of limited, low-pressure job ???
Anyone know what the definite payroll for next year is?
taking away anyone not currently signed-or with an option
I know Feliz = $5 M optiom
Werth = $7 M … but I dont know the exact numbers for the others.. taking Eaton, Myers, Jenkins out of the picture clears something like $25 M…
OH BALLS..
Howard = $19 M
Utley = $15 M
Ibanez = $11.5
Rollins = $7.5 M
Lee = $8 M
Hamels = $6.65 M
Blanton = $5 + arb
Romero = $4 M
Madson = $4.5
Lidge = $11.5
that is heading for $100 M right there.. we owe another $1.75 total for the two buyouts of Jenkins and Eaton (you have to pay them for this year, and then buyout their options)
Posted: 04:55 PM on July 30, 2009
Posts: 0 Terrence
With Victorino hurt, Phils should put francisco in lineup which i think they will do. ben bats right and sanchez throws left so there is a split.
Francisco has faced sanchez before last year once when he was with indians.
He went 1 for 3 with a run scored, a strikeout and a walk
Posted: 04:59 PM on July 30, 2009
Posts: 0 psujoe
Don, Utley gets a 4 million raise, Werth +5, Madson, +2, Ibanez +3, Lee +8, … Then you save Eaton -8, Myers -12, Jenkins -6.75…
The when you add Halladay you blow past neutral to around app -10 depending on who replaces Park, Eyre…
Posted: 04:59 PM on July 30, 2009
Posts: 0 Georgie
Happ to the bullpen just doesn’t make sense to me. If that was their intention, why wouldn’t they just have traded him? That’s too much screwing around with him, imo, and I’ll believe it when I see it.
Posted: 05:00 PM on July 30, 2009
Posts: 0 Terrence
dubee says pedro and moyer have too much experience starting so he wouldn’t allow them to go to the bullpen.
Also from Todd Zolecki: To make room for Cliff Lee and Ben Francisco on the 25-man roster, the Phillies optioned John Mayberry Jr. and Steven Register to Triple-A.
I wish they sent down Kyle Kendrick. Who knows he might be a part of a trade in August. Also I hope the Phillies put Eric Bruntlett on waivers in August. The guy just stinks pure.
Posted: 05:07 PM on July 30, 2009
Posts: 0 The Little Guy
If they put Happ back in the bullpen, what is that going to do with his mind and psyche when he has out-pitched everyone in the rotation aside from maybe Blanton? Your basically saying, well since your younger and have some recent exp. in the bullpen (even though you were a starter in the minors and starter in the MLB) your going to go back their even though Moyer has an ERA around 6 and gets hit around like Ramon Henderson at the home-run derby against an exp. lineup.
Posted: 05:14 PM on July 30, 2009
Posts: 0 Terrence
Will Carroll says the Pirates aren’t done dealing. Is Zach Duke next?
man gotta feel for the pirates. they are having a garage sale like seriously.
Posted: 05:18 PM on July 30, 2009
Posts: 0 Terrence
The Reds are actually hoping to move some contracts, and will listen on Bronson Arroyo, David Weathers, Aaron Harang, and Arthur Rhodes.
DBacks unlikely to trade Chad Qualls.
Posted: 05:28 PM on July 30, 2009
Posts: 0 j reed
Red Sox for v-mart? Interesting, as a catcher? Or first basemen ? pinch hitter? Something going on with Varitek because that rotation when he went down few years ago, was having trouble without him? I known Lowell has post-op pain in his hip so maybee youllis to go to 3rd La Roche to 1st.
Posted: 06:30 PM on July 30, 2009
Posts: 0 The Little Guy
reed, i read that Martinez would play 1st and spell Varitek from time to time behind the plate.
Posted: 06:39 PM on July 30, 2009
Posts: 0 j reed
Little Guy – I known Charlie is loyal to his guys but supposing we play an AL East beast it would be cruel to send Moyer out there…I but i still think he’d do it. well I guess we have enough long men for him…Question, has Francona ever had Wakefield on a World Series roster, can’t say for sure but i think i’d remember something like that but i am drawing a blank?
Posted: 06:40 PM on July 30, 2009
Posts: 0 j reed
Little guy – thanks…Has anything else been heard about…you know who…I can’t even look…I’m not knocking the trade, can’t argue with the package…just not the Red Ryder BB gun i hoped for and i don’t want anyone else to get it
Posted: 06:52 PM on July 30, 2009
Posts: 0 j reed
Terrence- GMs in both leagues must get together an to stage an intervention with the Pirates upper management. Though i won’t feel bad about Pittsburg until I see Pronger use Crosby’s face as a Zamboni machine…and the Cup returned to us.
Posted: 07:18 PM on July 30, 2009