Cliff Lee vs. Roy Halladay
Posted by Pat Gallen, Tue, July 21, 2009 12:44 PM | Comments: 39
Analysis, News, Posts, Rumors
Ten days from now, phones will be ringing off the hook as the MLB trade deadline hits its final hours. The Philadelphia Phillies will almost certainly be included in much of the discussion in some way or another.
As the faithful fans continue to clamor for Roy Halladay, but at the same time voice their exceptions to such a deal, the Phillies front office continues to scout all avenues. One such road is Cliff Lee.
Lee won the Cy Young award in the American League a year ago by posting a 22-3 record with a 2.54 ERA. The Cleveland Indians have slide into the abyss, now trailing the first place Tigers by 13 ½ games. A lost season for the Tribe means their big guns are up for sale, including Lee. The problem is, they will be looking for a king’s ransom as well.
Ken Rosenthal of Foxsports.com (whom everyone is so fond of) wrote that the Phillies are exploring other options besides Roy Halladay. They aren’t throwing all of their eggs into one basket, which is a perfect way to go at this time of the year. Still, is Lee even near the same level Halladay and would he produce the same kind of optimism and trust that the current Blue Jay does? Here are some factors surrounding each player:
Cliff Lee:
- Is having an underrated season on a bad team, so the numbers don’t say a lot
- Being the reigning Cy Young winner is good for something, right?
- Doesn’t have much of a track record: spent part of 2007 in the minors
- To be fair, he did average 15 wins per season from 2004-2006.
- Would playing for a contender rejuvenate him back to his Cy Young ways?
- Is owed only $11.5 million through next year, cheaper than Doc
- Who would the Indians want in return?
Roy Halladay:
- Could also be having an underrated season because of playing in Toronto
- Could have won the Cy Young last year after going 20-11 with a sub-three ERA
- Is the leader in the clubhouse for the Cy this year
- Seems to get better with age: at 32, could be having his best year
- Will he stay long term or is he a rental? That could play into the decision
- Toronto wants a metric ton for him: they will hold on to him if necessary
If you have dedicated countless hours to the Roy Halladay situation, this just further cements the fact that you cannot get any better than the Doc. There appear to be too many questions surrounding Lee, as he does not have the same track record Halladay has. Added to that mix are the indications sent forth by Cleveland that they too want a lot in return. How much remains a mystery, but the bounty will surely cost the Phils a top prospect or two, at the least.
So is Cliff Lee worth it? Fans are drawing up the signs as we speak: “Halladay or Bust.”
Posts: 0 MLB Baseball Odds
While Cliff Lee did have a remarkable 2008 season he hasn’t exactly followed up his Cy Young year. Halladay is a better pitcher that has produced year in and out as opposed to Lee. As far as the Phils are concerned I think it would be better to get a right handed ace in Halladay rather than another left handed pitcher in Lee. Now if the Halladay deal just doesn’t come together Lee is certainly a viable canidate to give pitching support at the top of the rotation.
Posted: 12:52 PM on July 21, 2009
Posts: 0 4daysrest.com
It’s absolutely a no-brainer at this point. It’s gotta be Halladay.
We depicted a possible playoff scenario and the probable outcome at the site, should we land Roy.
Posted: 01:04 PM on July 21, 2009
Posts: 0 Don M
From cnnsi.com
“The latest word from a source familiar with Philadelphia’s thinking is that the front-running Phillies have decided they will not include top pitching prospect Kyle Drabek in a four-player package for superstar pitcher Roy Halladay, perhaps raising the chances that Halladay will be dealt elsewhere or maybe even stay with the Jays.”
Posted: 01:12 PM on July 21, 2009
Posts: 0 Joe A.
There is a process in the making i am thinking…. kyle kendrick was scratched from his start today and marson is also not playing! Whats the deal?
Posted: 01:12 PM on July 21, 2009
Posts: 0 Havoc
From what i’ve read today it sounds like the Phils are doing exactly what I said they should play hardball with the Jays look for other pitching solutions and put the pressure where it belongs the team that is in 4th place, with payroll issues instead of on the contender with the deep farm system.
It also sounds like Rosenthall agrees with me that a deal can get done without Drabek… should I be concerned that Rosenthall agrees with me?
Anyway I still think a deal is coming for Halladay as it becomes more and more obvious that the Phils are the only team in on this. The Jays will have to decide if an offer of Brown, Taylor, Carrassco & Donald is less than they’ll get in the offseason. All I know is I’ve got a good feeling. Fingers crossed but we might be able to have a rotation of Triple H’s, Halladay, Hamels & Happ. With Drabek looming for 2010.
Posted: 01:15 PM on July 21, 2009
Posts: 0 Frank
Does anyone know if the Lee trade would be a more realistic or easier thing to get done instead of Halladay or it would be cheaper in the sense of top ranked prospects because I think that, with Lee’s numbers, he can help our rotation alot. Lee, Hamels, Blanton, Happ, Pedro/Moyer. I agree its not as nice without Doc but i still think it has a major upside in the playoffs
Posted: 01:20 PM on July 21, 2009
Posts: 0 Michael N.
YES no deal should involve Drabek or Happ. Part with some other prospects. I expect a trade is looming.
Posted: 01:22 PM on July 21, 2009
Posts: 0 phil
it would be insane to give up taylor and brown…id try to make this deal. marson donald carrasco or carpenter savery or bastardo and another lesser prospect or 2
Posted: 01:23 PM on July 21, 2009
Posts: 0 Steve-o
I’m actually OK with dealing Drabek if need be. I’d rather deal Knapp than Drabek, and I’d rather deal Taylor than Brown. Personally, I’d attempt to offer Toronto Knapp, Taylor, Donald, and Carrasco. I think keeping Brown is more important than Taylor, only because we currently have an All-Star outfield, and Taylor, although he’s farther along than Brown, is going to be blocked. By the time Brown is ready, however, Victorino and Werth will be FA’s and we could conceivably let one of them walk. Most likely Werth. My reasoning for dealing Knapp over Drabek is similar. We have a short window, and it would be fantastic to add Drabek next year and in 2011. By the time Knapp is ready to come up, our offense may be past prime and our window may be closing.
Posted: 01:25 PM on July 21, 2009
Posts: 0 NJ
Just to chime in there wont be a deal that includes both Taylor and Brown, I think there’s more chance the later will headline a deal because of his rating and projection.
I like what Amaro’s doing, I think if there’s a deal to be done he’ll get it done but I don’t see Riccardi being a very willing player in this scenario.
Posted: 01:26 PM on July 21, 2009
Posts: 0 NJ
Have to say I think when it comes down to the wire if Taylor, Knapp, Carrasco and Donalds on the table Riccardi would take it.
Posted: 01:29 PM on July 21, 2009
Posts: 0 Maverick
The playoffs are where we NEED Halladay…. the phils can win the division with the squad they have right now but when your talking about a series with the Sox or Yanks….
Our Bats will be facing Beckett & Lester…
We need someone other than hamels that can “bring it” espicially since the Sox and Yanks are stacked with Professional hitters
Posted: 01:31 PM on July 21, 2009
Posts: 0 The Dipsy
PAT – Stop…..citing….Ken Rosenthal…as….a…source. I grew up with Ken Rosenthal and I made me a lot of money off of him when I was younger. My friends and I used to corner him at his locker every Friday afternoon of football season and give him the games for that week and tell him to pick a side on every game or we would beat his ass. He cried a lot. Suffice it to say, I paid my way through college by taking the opposite side of all his picks. $120,000 is a lotta of money for a 17 year old kid to have. After I loaned my dad 40k it was down a little bit but thats still a good return. I guess for that I due owe Ken a debt of gratitude.
The Dipsy
The Dipsy
Posted: 01:33 PM on July 21, 2009
Posts: 0 Michael N.
how about a Carrasco Kendrick Brown Donald Marson Bastardo and a low tier class-a prospect.
Posted: 01:33 PM on July 21, 2009
Posts: 0 Bob
Riccardi would be an idiot not to do a deal of Knapp, Carrasco, Donald and Taylor if it comes down to the wire. If Amaro pulls that off (meaning we keep Drabek AND Happ and Brown) I think most Phils fans would like to buy him dinner and then some…
Posted: 01:36 PM on July 21, 2009
Posts: 0 Woodman
Cliff Lee is a consolation prize. Halladay is a stud #1. No brainer.
Posted: 01:36 PM on July 21, 2009
Posts: 1376 Pat Gallen
Dipsy:
Not so much citing him as a source as I am giving you a basis as to where the correlation of the two is coming from. Believe me, I dont trust much of what Rosenthal says either.
And, after his blowup over the blogger who posted about Ibanez and steroids, I lost some respect for him.
I’m glad you made so much money off of him in your day. Why’d you stop?
Posted: 01:39 PM on July 21, 2009
Posts: 0 CZ
Joe A – I noticed this as well. I could be something or nothing. Kendrick has been pitching very well so it would seem odd that he developed an injury, though, he has thrown a lot of innings…maybe just a rest? Marson could easily be explained as a rest for a dat game following a night game. That is very common with catchers. Or maybe something is brewing…
Posted: 01:43 PM on July 21, 2009
Posts: 0 The Dipsy
Just messin with ya Pat.
The Dipsy
Posted: 01:46 PM on July 21, 2009
Posts: 0 Petey Pablo
No reason to trade the same prospects to get Lee that it would take to get Halladay. Like that Amaro is keeping options open, though. It can only help in the long run, whether by ratcheting up the pressure on Ricciardi or by letting us snag Lee if the Jays’ price stays too high.
Posted: 01:49 PM on July 21, 2009
Posts: 0 psujoe
I do think Rosenthal makes sense about trading a higher number of top end long term prospects. Would Toronto entertain the following.
Knapp. 18 year old stud.
Gose. Excellent defensive CF and batting .320 in June/July single A.
Carrasco. a lot of potential for a 21 year old.
Marson. Quality catching prospect
Donald. Quality infielder
Carpenter. Could be a #5 day 1.
Posted: 01:49 PM on July 21, 2009
Posts: 0 Manny
I agree with most people on here. A deal of Knapp, Carrasco, Donald and Taylor-or-Brown is fair for both sides. No Drabek, no Happ.
Posted: 01:52 PM on July 21, 2009
Posts: 1376 Pat Gallen
Dipsy,
I know you joking. But, in reality, its hard to cite reliable sources anymore. There is a lot of junk out there.
Posted: 01:54 PM on July 21, 2009
Posts: 0 psujoe
Am I the only one that would rather part with Brown than Taylor?
Brown
Knapp
Carrasco
Marson
is a no brainer for the Phils, IMO. Heck throw in Donald.
Posted: 01:55 PM on July 21, 2009
Posts: 0 Manny
I’m talking about Halladay, not Lee.
Who knows what they’re asking for Lee, but if it’s Happ, Donald, and Carrasco, it isn’t worth it.
Posted: 01:57 PM on July 21, 2009
Posts: 1376 Pat Gallen
PSUjoe: I’d rather part with Brown, but thats only because I’ve never seen anything of him and I have Taylor.
But thats not really going on much. Taylor is closer to the majors, but is that actually a good thing? He’s blocked for the next several years by Werth/Vic/Ibanez. Brown has time to develop and while he isnt as far along, by the time he’s ready, one of those three will most likely have moved on.
Posted: 02:06 PM on July 21, 2009
Posts: 0 Manny
From what I’ve read, the Jays are more interested in Brown than in Taylor… Brown is, after all, one of our top 2 prospects (the other being Drabek)
Posted: 02:11 PM on July 21, 2009
Posts: 0 psujoe
Pat Good points. That kid Gose is a pretty decent prospect as well. he’s been hitting a lot better lately albeit in AAA. Amazing how Gillick turned this farm system around. Does he get the credit?
Posted: 02:15 PM on July 21, 2009
Posts: 0 psujoe
Pat Good points. That kid Gose is a pretty decent prospect as well. he’s been hitting a lot better lately albeit in A. Amazing how Gillick turned this farm system around. Does he get the credit?
Posted: 02:16 PM on July 21, 2009
Posts: 0 psujoe
Heyman from SI also says that Drabek is off the table.
Posted: 02:18 PM on July 21, 2009
Posts: 0 joedad
For some reason I don’t think the Jays are going to hold onto Halladay. I think they are in dire financial straits and need to deal him and others on the team or risk serious financial issues.
Posted: 02:19 PM on July 21, 2009
Posts: 0 Jeff
If you give Taylor who will not play for a long time with our outfield. Carrasco, Donald and Drabek that will be enough. Do it. This is once in a lifetime pitcher. Give them Drabek. He just had Tommy John at his age plus got racked against a AA team. He might not turn out to be anything. Remember Woods, and Prior. YEA. Hamels, Halliday, Happ, Moyer, Pedro. Dam good..
Posted: 03:06 PM on July 21, 2009
Posts: 0 Leo Sac
Wouldn’t Lee make the starting rotation harmfully lefty heavy?
Hamles, Lee, Happ, Moyer LH
Blanton, Pedro/Lopez RH
Posted: 03:24 PM on July 21, 2009
Posts: 0 4daysrest.com
Screw Lee, get Halladay at all costs.
Posted: 03:51 PM on July 21, 2009
Posts: 0 The Original Chuck P
Jays aren’t holding onto Halladay… they have to dump him now. We’re offering two top 50 prospects and they’re not going to get that anywhere else… two near locks. They could wait until the offseason but they’re not going to get that from anyone else. They might get one that’s up there and three guys with a lot of potential but the guys on the table right now are all near locks.
Taylor, Brown, Drabek, Carrasco, Donald, Marson… they’re all going to contribute in the big leagues sooner rather than later.
Knapp, Gose… a ton of potential.
Carpenter, Kendrick, Flande, Bastardo… serviceable.
Posted: 04:54 PM on July 21, 2009
Posts: 0 Jesse
I am very skeptical that the Phillies will get a trade done. If I was Amaro I would get a deal done very soon. Trade for Halladay because you are guareenteed to have him next year as well it’s not like a rental player like Sabathia was last year. Halladay,Hamels,Myers,Happ,Blanton as the starting rotation next year is a rotation that is a top 3 in baseball rotation. Let alone the guareentee of going to the world series out of the NL this year with Doc, we would almost be a lock to do the same next year. Get this F**kin deal done, WHY ARE WE PLAYING AROUND!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Posted: 06:32 PM on July 21, 2009
Posts: 0 Joe&Michael
Is anyone reluctant to part with Jason Donald. Everyone was raving about him in the spring. Also, I’d also rather part with Brown than Taylor. A talent like him, there has got to be room for him somewhere in the Phillies future plans. Any comments?
Posted: 04:35 PM on July 24, 2009
Posts: 0 Brian from Toronto
As a Toronto fan I would say that even if you guys give up Drabek you still win this deal. Doc’s arguably the best pitcher in baseball, and will have a very positive influence on your clubhouse, especially any of your young pitching staff.
I’d also say the team that gets him will have a very good chance of re-signing him if they are competitive, he is a loyal guy and clearly wants a shot at winning.
Even if you guys gave us your best three prospects, I would still be disappointed just from the thought of losing Roy. He’s probably my all time favourite Toronto athlete and is a total class act.
Basically all I’m saying is don’t underestimate the player you’re getting.
Posted: 02:35 AM on July 25, 2009
Posts: 0 Marco
Rueben,
The seats are full, money is not a problem as in the past. Keep em full, Halladay is the way…Repeat for 3 or 4 more years! Rumors of Myers returning in August? He will want back in the mix, you can rely on him to work hard to pitch good,he was a champion last year. He wants to taste that champagne again too! If his recovery is 90-100% …he is a gamer. If Happ has to go..so be it. How many wins does Drabek have in the bigs? So young with the surgery? A future Horse? Don’t bet on it!
Go Phils!
Posted: 10:52 PM on July 25, 2009