The Phils have a slightly heightened chance of winning another WS by adding a front-line pitcher but it’s hard from a guarantee. A rental like Jarrod Washburn or Jason Marquis having a really good year might be all the Phils need.

As much as its sexy to you can’t hang your hat on one guy.

“Besides, who says we CAN’T win without Halladay.”

I’ll say this much, we CAN’T win a WS championship without a #2 starter… won’t happen… and since the biggest concern right now is the ineffectiveness of Hamels, it’s even more important that we secure a top of the rotation pitcher. It doesn’t have to be Halladay but it has to be someone that’s going to provide top of the rotation help… not a filler.

If we get a TYPE B free-agent eligible pitcher, we will get one pick when/if this person leaves (highly likely). If we get a TYPE A (top 20% at a position) free-agent eligible pitcher, we will get four picks in return… if we get a Lee or Halladay, they’re Type A. Bedard/Marquis would be type B. Let’s say we trade three prospects for Bedard… we get Bedard (and his baggage) for a half-year rental and then we get one prospect as compensation. If we get Halladay for 4 prospects, we get him for 1 1/2 years and when he leaves we get 4 compensatory picks. If we get Lee (probably 4 prospects), we 1/2 year and 4 picks…

Amaro can say all he wants that Pedro’s signing is independent of any trade for Halladay but why else would he have signed him. He knows that Halladay probably won’t be coming here because he’s not going to trade Drabek so he is searching for other options. I’m not saing that Pedro’s the answer…..just another back-up option.

The Phils should go after Halladay hard but not tear up the farm for him. The veterans on this team aren’t so long in the tooth we can’t wait on the arrival of our prospects.

And if that’s the deal they say they want (Knapp, Marson, Brown and Drabek), I’m pretty sure they can be bargained down (and they know how hot the Phillies are on Drabek). You don’t go to the press with the absolute minimum that you’re willing to take. A top 25 prospect, a top 50 prospect and two solid B+ prospects isn’t a bad deal for them (and if it is, then they aren’t trading Halladay to anyone). It’s not like I’m suggesting Andy Tracy, Kyle Kendrick, Anthony Hewitt and Savery. Marson, Donald, Knapp and Brown is a good deal.

If Riccardi was serious about getting a deal done like Minnesota were serious bout moving Santana a deal will materialise, it’ll be expensive, but fair.

Carrasco > Clayton Richard
Knapp/Bastardo = Aaron Poreda (Poreda’s a reliever)
Donald/Marson > Dayan Viciedo
Taylor/Brown > Tyler Flowers

Viciedo is probably a better prospect than his numbers suggest but Jason Donald is definitely better and Marson fills a need.

The best two prospects on that list are Tyler Flowers and Aaron Poreda (a reliever…). Flowers is a solid player and a good prospect (not in BA’s top 50).

Carlos Carrasco > Clayton Richard
Jason Knapp/Antonion Bastardo Dayan Viciedo
Taylor/Brown > Tyler Flowers

Until we see/hear anything that leads us to believe that we need to give up Drabek, we don’t need to give up Drabek… ya dig?

My $0.02.