Phillies Nation

This will be a good pick up if they also get Halladay. If not then it’s pointless.

interesting move… i guess we will see how it plays out…

pedro go away
i want halladay

I would start thinking about people other than Halladay. This is a distraction. If the Blue Jays will trade him without demanding Michael Taylor, Knapp, Drabek or Happ (since the GENERAL MANAGER has said that those players will not be traded, period, end of discussion) then MAYBE a deal can be reached. Otherwise I dont see anyone getting him. I kind of think unless some team gets desperate and does something extreme that its either the Phillies or nobody. Boston and NY either dont need him (BOS), or dont have the prospects (NY). St Louis doesnt have the money. Texas doesnt have the money. Milwaukee probably doesnt have the money. The Mets dont have the prospects. The White Sox dont have the prospects because Gordon Beckham is not going to be traded.

I mean who else is a legitimate candidate to match? (crickets….)

So the Jays are backed into a corner. It would be smarter of them to hang onto him and try to trade other guys.

Pedro pitched for the Phillies in SIMULATED GAMES. Heck, even I could pitch well in a simulated game.

NJ and Geoff…you have hit the nail on the head with your points on this. As for Happ….I REALLY don’t want him to be traded right now. He has looked too good as of late and I can’t help but think he is poised for a HUGE second half. Right now, he and Blanton are our two most reliable starters (yes….Moyer has done ok….but I still hold my breath every time he takes the mound)

Pedro?????…….well, I guess he’s worth a shot IF his fastball does indeed hit 94 or so. Could be VERY interesting!!

Maverick…..how is it that NJ is projecting negativity?

If you map it out there is an odd man out here:

Hamels (locked up to 3 year deal)

# 2 starter yet to be traded for

JA Happ (young, cheap, under team control for yrs, not going anywhere)

Joe Blanton (under team control for two more years with arbitration, FA after 2010 I think, will be staying here until his contract is up)

Jamie Moyer (old, some good days some bad days, expensive contract ending after 2010)

Pedro Martinez (one year prorated contract)

Then behind them, assuming they arent traded (drabek, carrasco, savery, bastardo, lopez, etc)

Who is the odd man out? I am thinking that at least one of those guys in the minors will be in the rotation next year (Drabek). One will probably be traded for a starter.

I think Moyer is the odd man out. They could DFA him, trade him, cut him, exile him to the pen, whatever. I dont know that he will be in the playoff rotation.

I guess a 1.000 winning percentage is just pretty good.

Here’s the thing with Pedro…..he HAS to be a better option for us than a healthy Bastardo or Lopez (although Lopez DID look pretty good in his two starts). IF his fastball is what the scouts are saying it is then it makes sense to bring him here. For a one year 3 mil or so deal, it’s worth the gamble….especially if the ability to trade for another pitcher becomes too difficult.

Geoff…I like your breakdown of the odd man out…..the only thing I would like to add is that Moyer’s fate in the scenario you paint probably depends on how he starts the second half. If he absolutely impresses for his first five starts of the second half and goes into the playoff push absolutely on fire, then I think you have to rethink your analysis. And Moyer’s a smart guy who’s been around a long time….he probably is one step ahead of you and that alone may motivate him.

“Pedro pitched for the Phillies in SIMULATED GAMES. Heck, even I could pitch well in a simulated game.”

no you couldn’t.

i have no problem with adding pedro. i like what lopez has done, i still have high hopes for bastardo, and i’m still very excited about carrasco… but i have no problem with adding pedro.

Im tired of reading all these reports acting like JA Happ is going to get traded…enough already. They did the same thing with the Flyers and JVR.

I don’t mind the Pedro signing. He’s going to cost roughly $2 Mil, and he will allow us to put Bastardo back in the minors and continue to develop, while also allowing us to keep Carrasco down there. My only concern with Pedro is how deep he can go into games. Earlier this year we saw our bullpen get overworked from starters not being able to go far enough into the games. With Moyer AND Pedro in our rotation, I’d be nervous about that potentially happening again.

Guys, you can never have enough starters. Signing Pedro is smart, as long as you scouted him out well first, which we did. With the exception of Blanton and Happ, we have problems right now. Signing Pedro means we can probably upgrade on #5. Now, if we can get Halladay for any kind of reasonable price (By reasonable here, I’m willing to give a Michael Taylor with a Carrasco and one or two more prospects of the ilk of a Flande and Donald level), now we have bumped everyone down a spot, and Jamie is bound to be a spot starter the rest of the way. Such is life in baseball, and while we all love Jamie Moyer, we knew this day was coming. Odds are we will still have to deal with an injury of some kind anyway, and this will all work itself out.

Here is the BOTTOM line. If the Phillies do trade for Halliday then Happ will be in the deal. The Bluejays are going to get alot. Happ might mean Drabek stays and Taylor goes. I make the deal. This is a once in a lifetime trade. This player does not come along everyday. No national league team has won back to back since the 70s. Drabek if in the deal is a prospect. This is for the best pitcher in baseball. Makes us favorites. I also say yes to Pedro. Better then Bastardo and Lopez. If his fastball is moving, he is edgy and could give us a jolt. Who cares about the money, its not mine. They make plenty from us going to the games, Jerseys, Hot Dogs, beers, etc. They make plenty and can afford a low risk move. Hamels, Halliday, Blanton, Moyer, Pedro. I would take that in a heartbeat. Our fifth is a hall a famer and our second.

Rich….there’s NO WAY the Jays give up Halladay for Taylor, Carrasco, Flande and Donald. It’s just not enough incentive for them. Great deal for us, but it won’t happen. Happ OR Drabek will have to be in the deal and I just don’t see it happening.

My point is who cares if this is a once in a lifetime trade. So was the Eric Lindros trade. The Lindros trade destroyed the Flyers franchise allowing the Nordiques/Avalache to win 2 Stanley Cups and be a perennial contender during their run. The Flyers had Lindros, who was enough to get them to the finals once, but he didnt have the pieces around him to win because of that trade.

I really think its a horrible idea to give up ALL of that for one guy. I think a move like that is PRIME to backfire if you give up guys liek Happ or Drabek or Taylor. Say you give up all of that and Hallladay gets injured and misses the season. Then youre SCREWED. Then you pissed away your future for an injured guy whos over 30 and makes 15M a year. Maybe he doesnt become Type A because of that injury.

You have to think about those things. Giving up prospects WILL happen for a starter. Maybe even some good ones. But giving up a young pitcher under team control for YEARS along with your BEST prospects is COMPLETELY retarded. Any GM that does that should be fired.

Lets get this clear. The Phillies DO NOT NEED Roy Halladay. It would be nice to have him. They need another starting pitcher who logs innings. That DOESNT meant it has to be him. There are other people who can do that at a lower price if the price for him is too high. Now, this is exactly the kind of stupid trade a Philadelphia team would make in years past.

But this isnt years past. This is a championship team. If the price is too high, they wont cave in. They wont make this trade. They are NOT desperate. This is not a desperate team, not a desperate organization, not a desperate fan base by in large. So STOP acting desperate. The Blue Jays are desperate. THEY have to drump salary, not the Phillies. The Blue Jays are in salary dump mode, which means they cant get away with asking for too much in a trade because EVERY team knows they are trying to do that. Thats why I cant see him being moved for the price they are demanding. They will have to break down and lower expectations or else he wont be traded.

I saw Happ in Spring Training and I said then that putting him in the pen and making Chan Ho Park the 5th starter was a mistake. He looked GREAT in Florida. Oh well, I guess it worked itself out for both of them and now Happ’s no 5th starter…..he’s more like a #3 at this point. That’s why if I can’t see him being part of this trade. He’s really starting to establish himself, he’s young, and the Phils have control of him longer than they would with Halladay (unless they sign him to a 4yr/100 mil contract…which is NUTS!!)

Halladay = higher likelyhood of repeating as WFC’s this year and next.

Your Lindros comparison is flawed b/c Phils have the pieces around Halladay. Its not like we are trading Howard or Utley to get him.

Adding Halladay hardly guarantees a championship this year or next, if it did the Yankees and Mets would have taken the majority of titles this decade. By all means deal Carrasco, Donald, Marson to try and get the guy but Toronto seems to be laying the groundwork to deal him in the off-season or next deadline not now.

The players in the system should guarantee the Phils chance to win every year for the next decade unless we have that little faith in our system, coaching infrastructure and organisation as a whole.

If Halladay meant another title the Phils would have made the deal last week but unfortunately it doesn’t. Smart management wins championships.

There’s NO WAY the Phils sign Halladay to what would be about $100 mil over 4 years. And you know what??……….I would hope that they wouldn’t. It makes absolutely NO SENSE to the future overall success of this team. It would mean less money for other players like Howard, Utley, etc….players that play every day, not 1 in 5.

The more I think about it , signing Pedro make a whole lot of sense. Let’s face it….

1)Roy Halladay is NOT coming here.

2)Cole Hamels is NOT the same pitcher he was last year.

3)Brett Myers is done.

4) Jamie Moyer is on the serious downside of his career (Geoff seems to think he’s done before the season’s over….not sure I want to rush to that judgement but the point is it’s almost over for him).

5)Bastado and Lopez probably aren’t the answer.

So that leaves us with two very good starters right now….Happ and Blanton. Taking a 3 million dollar chance on Pedro Martinez is a smart gamble.

Chuck, A Pedro signing would be great. It’s going to cost the Phils next to nothing. If it doesn’t work out the Phils will lose less than a million. Much more upsiethan trading prospects for a guy like Meche who would eat up 11 million.

Honestly Chuck, I would just put him on the bench or try to lay him off on another team and eat part of his salary. Sounds so easy doesn’t it? He’s got a funky salary which calls for about 20m a year in 2011, 12, 13…I THINK. But for this year and next he is pretty cheap. You just know the Jays wanna dump that. Its a real pipe dream that any team would ever do that. Including us. But whaddaya do when Ricciardi calls you and says “Roy and Wells for Marson, Donald, and Flande?” :)

The Dipsy