Comments on: Runners Left On Base Costs Phillies

By: Brian of CO

Brian of CO — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 00:15:28 +0000

I agree with Greg B. This loss was NOT on lidge. Look at the player who scored the run. He was on first, followed by a bunt which was PROBABLY going FOUL, he made it to THIRD because R Howard screwed up! Not to mention, 0-5 with runners in scoring position with LESS THAN 2 OUTS! Are you freaking kidding me. bases loases NO OUTS and you cant get a run in. COMPLETE FAILURE. This is the SAME junk that happened last year. We break out and score 20+ runs, followed by yet another losing streak.

By: j reed

j reed — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 18:39:02 +0000

Geoff-
the problem with your model is that I don’t think the Jays will be that impressed with Carrasco. And Romero has been less than stellar. They’ll need a proven viable arm to fill in their rotation for the rest of the season. I think Happ is likely to go in any scenario.

By: shag beta sigma delta

shag beta sigma delta — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 17:59:23 +0000

oh yea I forgot why I originally came on here, I just watched the game this morning on dvr, and I can not pin this loss on Lidge, for one, before that guy hit the double Lidge threw a slider for a strike, same as the first pitch he threw in that at bat. But like I said last night it is one loss as long as they win tonight, they take the series, you can not win them all, and last night was not that bad of a loss, Marlins lost and IMO that is the team to scoreboard watch right now, Mets are done until they get healthy, and the Brave even though they swept us, do not scare me

By: shag beta sigma delta

shag beta sigma delta — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 17:55:45 +0000

Geoff I like the way; your are thinking on this one, My point of re signing the guy is if you are not sure you can resign him, then Drabek, Happ are out of the deal, if you feel you can sign him then only Happ would be untouchable IMO. Because then you have 3-5 years to fill in the prospects you lost and get some of the other young pitchers to develop. that is why it would make a difference if you can re sign him or not. 1.5 years is not enough to give up the farm for

By: Geoff

Geoff — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 17:20:16 +0000

I had this whole big thing explaining it written out, but the site failed to load then I sent the post, so here goes again…

From MLBTR via SI.com’s Jon Heyman, he calls the Phililes the Early Frontrunners using the Dan Haren Trade (Carlos Gonzalez, Brett Anderson, & filler) & the Erik Bedard Trade (George Sherrill, Adam Jones, & filler) as the models.

If we use those models you can clearly see that the players headlining the deal are NOT the equivalent of the Phililes’ version of JA Happ, Michael Taylor, Dominic Brown or Kyle Drabek. The players in those deals are mostly MAJOR LEAGUE READY prospects and one roster player as a sweetener. THis means that the Phillies “untouchables” Drabek, Happ, Taylor are PROBABLY safe. So lets look at this type of framwork.

Major League Ready Starting Pitching: Carlos Carrasco (mostly ready)
Major League Ready Position Player: Jason Donald, John Mayberry, Jr.
Filler: Kyle Kendrick, Andrew Carpenter
Deal Sweeteners: JC Romero, Sergio Esalona, Jason Knapp.

These are my two predictions based on the Haren/Bedard Models.

Carlos Carrasco, Jason Donald, Kyle Kendrick, JC Romero & Jason Knapp for Roy Halladay & BJ Ryan. (Romero is a deal sweetener and compensation for BJ Ryan, who has a contract running out in 2010 also and would be salary relief).

Heres the simpler and more likely scenario than the first one:

Carlos Carrasco, Jason Donald, Kyle Kendrick, Sergio Escalona & Jason Knapp for Roy Halladay.

Thats fits the framework of the previous deals with adding a sweetener or two into the mix. Im sure there will be another filler guy or two that isnt central to the deal, those those are the key elements.

The second scenario isnt really that out of the realm of possibility. MAYBE Dominic Brown is in the deal instead of Knapp & Escalona. Maybe. But not Taylor, Happ, Drabek.

By: Steve-o

Steve-o — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 17:12:56 +0000

Bruce you make that trade. You give them Brown, Carrasco, Donald, and anyone else not named Happ/Drabek/Taylor. We are talking about arguably the best pitcher in baseball. Consider his stats, then consider he pitches in the AL Beast. Now throw him in the NL East, and we are talking CC 2008 dominance. We have a window right now in a wide open National League, we need to take advantage of it.

By: Papa Thompson

Papa Thompson — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 16:58:52 +0000

I think we’d all take the Mayberry-Bruntlett swap right now. From what I understood of the radio broadcast, Charlie sent Mayberry to the circle, then called him back and batted Bruntlett. I guess he was playing his gut and trying to dial something up, but the way he changed his mind about it seemed pretty weird. Hey, at least Mayberry pinch-running – and burning him before he could pinch-hit – worked to perfection.

There are a lot of good (and conflicting) points here on giving up good prospects and likely Happ for Halladay. I still think it’s best just to go for it. If they can’t win another championship with a rotation that includes Hamels and Halladay, they can’t win another with this team. And I like the idea of having a rock solid No. 1 even if Hamels were to go down. I hate the idea of giving away too much and setting yourself up for a miserable future. But the Phillies are a successful franchise right now — a much richer franchise than they were at the start of the Ed Wade era. They ought to be able to plug a lot of future holes with money. How many franchises have good farm systems anyway? And somebody wins every year.

By: Bruce

Bruce — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 16:43:55 +0000

Geoff, it does matter. Pronger wanted it done before the season started. Flyers knew for the heavy price they paid to aquire Pronger they need absolute certainty he will stay for many more years to make the cost bearable. I can see the Phillies fretting on the probable heavy cost of aquiring halladay.

Yahoo sports news item:

“Blue Jays general manager J.P. Ricciardi told reporters in St. Petersburg, Fla., on Tuesday night that he’s “willing to listen” to potential offers for former Cy Young Award winner Roy Halladay. But the Jays, who had a scout at Citizens Bank Park on Tuesday, likely would have to be blown away by a prospect-rich deal.

Odds are, the Phillies would have to include either top pitching prospect Kyle Drabek or outfield prospect Dominic Brown, in addition to other mid-level prospects and perhaps a player off the major league roster.

Halladay, who will make $15.75 million next season, also would have to waive his full no-trade clause. The Phillies’ 2009 payroll already has climbed to more than $130 million, and they already have committed $95.5 million to 11 players for 2010.”

I don’t see this happening. Not only the Phillies will have to pay the remaining $7 million on this year’s contract with Halladay but also another $16 million next year. A 1.5 year rental pitcher that will cost megabucks and a boatload of top prospects? Even for a Halladay who by the way just came back from a groin injury?

By: Geoff

Geoff — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 16:21:39 +0000

Doesnt matter right now if they can sign him. They have a year left on the deal afterwards. Liek Chris Pronger with the Flyers, they have an entire season to negotiate an extension. Pronger happened to re-sign quickly, but the Flyers had plenty of time.

By: Nesto

Nesto — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 15:25:14 +0000

I feel like Bruntlett and Mayberry should have swapped each other’s roles in last night’s game. Mayberry should have gotten those two AB’s with the game on the line, and Bruntlett should have been the pinch runner for Feliz. It really didn’t make sense to me.

By: beta sigma shag

beta sigma shag — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 15:24:36 +0000

As I see it obviously Halladay would be a great fit for the Phils. My first question before any trade is made, is can they re sign him. If the answer is no then you have to give up less if he is only going to be here for 1.5 years,
Say he will re sign for 3-5 years, then you can give up more top line prospects, I say no Happ, only untouchable guy, like I said before, even can’t miss prospects can miss, So if you have to give them Drabek, Marson, Carassco, and Donald then I am ok with that if he will re sign with the PHillies. Because that will give time for the younger pitchers to move up, and a Hamels-Halladay-Happ-Blanton would not be a bad 4 pitchers for the next 3 years

By: NJ

NJ — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 15:13:57 +0000

Nice quote- Torii Hunter says, “If they’re shopping Roy Halladay, everybody and their momma is going to be after him.”

By: Ben

Ben — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 15:06:58 +0000

When is Lidge going to start producing on a regular basis? Granted the team should have been up with him going into the game, but still you CAN NOT surrender the lead in that situation with your closer on the mound. It’s not like this was a one time thing. This is starting to become an every day occurance with Lidge. Is this guy every going to get into form this year?

By: NJ

NJ — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 15:05:34 +0000

The Phils have to be very careful right now, it was three years between Red Sox victories and that’s the only barometer we have. The other teams in the division and league will be getting better as the next couple of years progress and the Phils are going to have to reinforce the current major league roster with several viable prospects to be able to contend otherwise the door will slam shut, Howard will walk and we’ll be in the very situation with Hamels the Jays are with Halladay.

I’d LOVE for the Phils to acquire Halladay, I just hope the Phils have a strategy in mind to be able to reinvigorate the roster from within because opportunity disappears awfully fast in the majors when a team isn’t able to keep its roster with it’s future ahead.

By: Chuck P

Chuck P — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 14:50:40 +0000

The window to do something special is very small… 1.5 years of Halladay for a few prospects is not going to kill this team in the long run and it might help us solidify our place as the best of this decade. I think that it’s worth it… he’s as close to a sure thing as you’re gonna get.

By: Manny

Manny — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 14:48:15 +0000

I agree with what Geoff is saying. Plus, if our top 2 prospects (according to Baseball America) are not enough (Carrasco and Brown), then I think it’s not worth it.

You CANNOT trade Happ… the guy is giving us quality start after start… he’s STILL improving and will give you a chance to win nearly every time (almost the same as every “top-tier” pitcher)!

By: NJ

NJ — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 14:40:37 +0000

It’s going to be a really tough call for Amaro. There’s no doubt Donald and Carrasco will be part of a deal I just wonder what point will the cost be too much, will the cost implode at crunch time time like Santana or explode like Teixera (Rangers to Braves)… Going to be interesting to see which way the wind blows…

By: Chuck P

Chuck P — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 14:34:00 +0000

I agree NJ…. but I disagree, too… Toronto is initially going to be looking for a king’s ransom, however, there are few teams that can foot the bill for a Halladay and there are few teams that have the prospects to start the conversation… plus, Halladay has a no-trade clause. He said that he wants to play for a winner… I don’t think that he would waive his NT to play for anyone. There are even fewer legitimate contenders that actually need or want to invest in a starting pitcher for 1.5 years… so the potential suitors are not many. Realistically, the list can be narrowed down to five teams at most:

PHI – good fit…
NYY – always in discussions
BOS – has the money but doesn’t really need SP…
CHW – 2 gb DET… needs a starter to go up against Verlander
TEX – has prospects, in a dead heat for 1st place… Halladay seems like a Nolan Ryan guy… they have so many pitching prospects so this 1.5 year rental makes sense but would he go here?
MIL – good team that needs SP… not sure if they have the cash and I’m not sure if he would go there.

My $0.02.

By: Brian Michael

Brian Michael — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 14:33:11 +0000

Chuck, you’re right. I just didn’t know who else to give it to. Lidge and Madson are always easy targets.

NJ, I think Chase is locked in for another 4 years.

By: Geoff

Geoff — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 14:29:46 +0000

Toronto has a clogged outfield for years to come. WIth over 150M committed to Alex Rios and Vernon Wells, and a young Adam Lind in LF they have a set OF.

They have a need in shortstop/middle IF, so Donald will be in the deal. Carrasco will be in the deal. I would try and force Dominic Brown on them because I dont believe that Michael Taylor (rare power) or Kyle Drabek (you dont trade pitching prospects that good – for anybody) or JA Happ (young, cheap rotation guy for years to come) are really worth trading for any player right now.

Look at all these deals for Dan Haren, Johan Santana, CC Sabathia, etc. Each circumstance if unique, but the ONLY deal that included a teams “top” prospect was the LaPorta Sabathia deal.

The Mets and D-Backs gave up QUANTITY not quality for those guys. Sabathia they gave up one legitimate prospect and a bunch of slop for…