Phillies Nation

Carrasco was a top 25 last year…
Whatever happened to Josh Vitters??

I think that BA does a good job and has gotten better but it’s not an exact science. Their top 10 in 2007 was (in order), Daisuke (way to go out on a limb and pick the foreign player), Alex Gordon (an ok player), Delmon Young (below average), Phil Hughes (average), Homer Bailey (average), Cameron Maybin (so far, no good), Longoria (got this one), Brandon Wood (still in the minors), J-Upton (another good one) and Andrew Miller (average)… the book is still out, but I would say that three of those players, at best, will have solid careers.

I’m now with Geoff on this. werth makes 10 mil next year and Vic will get a huge bump Howard, Hamels et al are going to cost. Does anyone think we can afford top contracts on Howard, Halladay, Vic, werth, Ibanezor FA LF, Lidge… We’re going to need 2 of Brown, Drabek and Taylor in the bigs to offset some of these huge contracts. So part with 1 top prospect, but keep the other 2. or we could become the Mets.

Kyle Drabek is 21 years old, has had TJ surgery, and the highest level at which he has pitched (though he’s pitched very well) is half a year at AA. Dom Brown is in A ball.

Roy Halladay is arguably the best pitcher in baseball and, if he pitches for another 5 years or so at this level, a potential HOF-er. I cannot believe that most people agree we’d be stupid to trade both Drabek and Brown to get Doc.

Petey Pabolo knows what’s up.

There’s a reason Halladay’s available right now with 18 months left on his deal. Toronto want someone to overvalue him so much they throw a whole pile of prospects north of the border for him, that’s not to say he isn’t worth overpaying for but the economics of the game speak louder than anything.

You want to be strong now and stronger later. Prospects are untouchable because you can build the backbone of a championship calibre team if your smart while everyone else is paying for former all-stars. Not ever prospect is going to be Tim Lincecum, Jon Lester or BJ or Justin Upton earning a fraction of what Halladay makes but you have to think of the economics of the game. Boston are successful because they have an immensely successful system of developing talent that keeps the pay-roll flexible, Tampa have built a contender out of prospects and veterans earning next to nothing. The Yankees failed to win a championship after a decade of collection All-Stars and look at the Mets this year.

You may think you win a championship with All-Stars but you win by assembling the smaller pieces to make sure you’re not holding onto all these all-stars for nothing.

It’s right we go after Halladay hard but think of the peripheral pro’s and con’s, it’s not so black and white. All-Stars sell tickets and merchandise to a greater effect than they contribute to winning because it’s guys like Chan Ho Park and Scott Eyre that contribute to a championship, it takes guys like Eric Bruntlett and Clay Condrey to be able to pay Ryan Howard. More importantly it’s going to take guys like Kyle Drabek to make sure this era of the Phillies organisation goes down as the most successful in team history and that isn’t built overnight, 6 years after the Red Sox broke the curse is their window closing?

Would you rather a GM that resembles Theo Epstein or Omar Minaya? Smarts is what matters now not who you do or don’t trade for.

I agree with Mike, not Mike T. I don’t understand why the word untouchable is so humorous to you either. I know what would not be funny, though. That would be Drabek winning 20 games for the Jays in 5 years and Michael Taylor hitting 30 bombs a year alongside Vernon Wells. That would not be funny.

I think the real reason why they are so hesitant to get Doug Davis, Duke, or Washburn is because that would give us 4 lefties and if we would run into a lineup with too many power righties in a playoff series (Cubs, Cards, maybe) we would be in trouble.

Also @ Don M, Bastardo’s ERA before his last and most brutal outing against the Rays was 5.21 (that includes 4 ER in one inning against the Sox) and Lopez’s was 3.18 in 2 starts. Pedro’s ERA last year was 5.61 in 20 starts. There is a difference in sample size but the point is that you have no idea who is better than who. If we really thought he was our best option why didn’t we sign him a month ago when we were already throwing guys like Bastardo out there? I just think it sounds like a real stretch.

My opinion would be no Pedro or Halladay (unless as Geoff mentions we have a package like Brown, Donald, Carrasco)

I’d keep Happ. God help us if we sign Bedard, Don. A caller to WIP from Baltimore said that Bedard will complain if he’s been in for six innings and will try his best to get out of the game. That sort of guy would never fly here.

Pedro is a low-risk, high-reward signing. We’re not relying on him (I hope), just kicking the tires. It’s not like we’re giving up Carrasco or Carpenter or Lopez for him.

Werth is picking it up lately. Sorry for comparing you to Pat Burrell, Jayson.

I understand the concerns about Drabek not performing at a high level yet but you could have said the same thing about Cole at that point in his minor league career. He battled injuries, was inconsistent but seemed to be starting to dominate in A and AA. Then all of a sudden we shot him up to AAA and he dominated for a month and the rest is history.

This team is not a good team to use as an example if you want to defend the “sell the farm for a sure thing” approach. Just RIGHT NOW we have two former MVPs, an NLCS and WS MVP, and the best second baseman (and probably the best out of all the others I mentioned) that we drafted and brought all the way through our system. That worked out pretty damn good didn’t it? You throw in guys like Myers and Ruiz and the case for keeping your prospects becomes even more compelling.

Our farm system just won us a World Series so it is completely ridiculous to ignore the positives of holding onto high ceiling players in the minors.

Miles Miles Miles Miles… Miles Miles Miles. That’s awesome you can predict the future, I wish I had that power. How far into the future does Drabek throw his first major league pitch? Because he’s thrown 0 so far. How fast does he throw? Does he have an out pitch? A sick mustache like his father?

I’m not sure what’s funnier, you predicting Michael Taylor to hit 30 bombs in 2014, or you predicting Vernon Wells (the most over paid piece of trash) to hit 30 bombs in 2014. They’re both equally as hilarious as using the word untouchable to describe a minor leaguer.

Open your eyes a little – we’re talking about Roy Halladay. Think about that some more, and then get back to me.

Its more like, they can afford to spend on good draft picks and keep their good homegrown players..then the extra ones they can AFFORD to trade for star players.

I dont think the philleis have reached the point where they can dole out top prospect after top prospect and still expect to be good in 5 years. they need to exercise restraint and be patient. if you give up too much in a trade it almost always backfires on you at some point anyway.

Mike – I agree we should not sell the farm, and obviously the Phils are a prime example of the benefits of developing your own guys. The bottom line is we need a top-end starter. Jarrod Washburn is not a #2 pitcher. From 2006-08 he had ERA+s of 95, 100, and 90 and WHIPs of 1.35, 1.38, and 1.46(!). This year he is pitching out of his mind, but I’ll take the previous track record (he’s a careeer 109 ERA+ – slightly above average). Zach Duke is a career 101 ERA+ with a 1.45 WHIP. Doug Davis: 107 and 1.45. These are not #2 pitchers, and we would be buying high on all of them.

Also – what do you think we are giving up to get one of those three? Cause it won’t be a bag of baseballs and some pine tar. It will be at least one legit prospect (I’m thinking, at a minimum, it would resemble the Blanton deal, and it might cost more than that). So what you’re weighing here isn’t gutting the farm, it’s the choice between giving up two top prospects and one decent prospect to get the best pitcher in baseball, or giving up one top prospect and two throw-ins to get a mediocre pitcher who’s had a good first half of the year.

Sign Pedro
That fills the spot vacated by Happ when he, along with 2-3 prospects, are traded to Toronto for Halladay.
Starting rotation:
Halladay, Hamels, Blanton, Martinez, Moyer
You heard it here first

Petey… stole the words right outta my mouth. Beckett, Bay, Schilling, Lowell, Dice-K, Penny, Smoltz, Manny, Ortiz, Drew… they have a handful of good farm guys but they haven’t been afraid to spend money, either.

No one is saying give up the farm… if you give up Carrasco, Brown/Taylor, Donald and Marson for Halladay you would prospectively get 4 picks in return in two years.

Chuck P they are gonna want more than that. I would do your deal in a heartbeat but I think they are gonna want something more like what I posted. And that means we gotta draw the line.

Miles – No way. That’s absurd. There is a limit to what to trade for anyone, Doc included. Here’s the type of trades I make:

Halladay for Drabek/Donald/Brown and some kind of throw-in if need be (Carpenter, etc.)

Halladay for Happ/Donald/Brown

However, if Happ is included we HAVE to sign Pedro (or someone else) otherwise it just doesn’t work.

CZ – Buchholz is not their best prospect. And they were more than happy to trade Hanley Ramirez for Josh Beckett. Their payroll is significantly lower this year than it was (relative to the rest of the league) from 2004-08 ($143MM in 07 and $135MM in ’08, for example). Yes, Boston has home-grown talent, as every successful team must. No one, not even the Yankees, can just build an all-star team through FA and win (and the Yanks have plenty of farmhands on their roster, too).

Of course we have to find a mix. I don’t think that mix is totally upset by trading 2 top prospects for Roy Halladay who is, and I can’t stress this enough, probably the best pitcher in baseball. Honestly, what’s a good estimate for his ERA in the National League? 2.00? 1.50? The Phillies will not circle the drain after 2011 if we trade Drabek and Brown.

TomG – Carrasco != Savery and cannot be considered a throw-in. Carrasco is still a potential 2/3 starter if he gets his head right. Under no circumstances should BOTH Carrasco and Drabek be traded to the Jays.

Anyone who thinks Halladays numbers are going to be INCREDIBLE in the NL you better change your way of thinking fast because if we do deal for him you’ll be in for disappointment. He’ll likely get a slight bump but pitching’s still pitching. This isn’t a playstation game where things always go your way if you set the tables in your favour…

I think a drop will only be marginal, have a tough time seeing anyone’s ERA being arbitrarily hovering around or below 2. A pitchers going to get hit some nights no matter how good he is.

Clay Buchholz did happen to throw a NO-HITTER in the major leagues a few years ago. Sure he may have regressed a bit but he has a 2.11 ERA in AAA right now. Wouldn’t we be happier with our supposed stud young pitcher Carlos Carrasco if he were putting up numbers like that?

I think Boston knows full well that he will be a fixture in their rotation very soon. Daisuke is done, Wakefield can’t pitch forever, Smotlz and Penny are short term solutions. Clay is simply waiting in the wings and that is why he has not been traded.

how exactly have I lost my mind? What have I said that so grossly offends you?

CZ – I like Buchholz too but just because he threw a no-no doesn’t mean he’ll be great. Milton threw one, as did Tyler Green, Anibal Sanchez, and the list goes on. So while I think he’ll be good, he may not be great. I think lester will be better than him by the end of their careers.

let me clarify, I mean to say I think those that think he is going to eclipse his career numbers and routinely win over 20 games with an ERA under 2 at he drop of a penny will be left disappointed. I’d expect his numbers overall to be pretty comparable to where they are now even in the NL.

Section 113 – Happ’s ERA is 3.04 but his FIP this year is 4.65 and his BABIP against is .246. In other words, he is getting a bit lucky and benefiting from excellent fielding behind him. I wouldn’t want to lose him but it’s worth it for Halladay. I agree I’d rather protect Happ than Drabek or Carrasco, though.

6 for 1 is too much. I’d offer Drabek/Brown/Donald/Marson or something like that. If they really want Happ, then maybe Happ/Carrasco/Brown/Donald. That’s really the ceiling for me. If they want more than that, tell them to pound sand.

NJ – along these same lines, Halladay’s ERA and FIP are identical (2.85). I think it’s absurd to think his ERA won’t approach 2.00 in the NL and with our defense behind him. As far as someone’s ERA hovering around 2, remind me again what Zach Greinke’s ERA is this year…

CZ – Buchholz has a huge upside, no doubt. I just don’t think it’s fair to say the Sox haven’t traded him because he’s their top guy and somehow untouchable. The situation just hasn’t presented itself, and Neil Huntington is a moron. Amaro shouldn’t offer the moon to Ricciardi immediately, but he needs to be prepared to hand over at least one of the ‘untouchables’ to get Doc.

Petey- I think Halladay in the NL stands a chance to have improved numbers but his numbers are already pretty near what you’d wish for in every catagory.

The league leader in ERA in 2008 was Johan Santana with 2.53
2007 Jake Peavey with 2.54
2006 Johan Santana with 2.77
2005 Andy Pettitte with 2.39
2004 Jake Peavy with 2.27 (in 27 starts)

The only time a pitchers been below 2.22 (Pedro Martinez in 2003) in the last decade was in 1999 when Pedro turned in 1.74 in 27 starts.

Given all that above I think it’s a hell of a long-shot to think Halladay will drop his career best by 78pts. I’d fully expect him to cut into that number and pick up a couple of extra wins in the NL but not eclipse his career numbers and give the kind of numbers that haven’t been seen for a decade.