Phillies Nation

While the ink dries on Pedro Martinez’ one-year/$1M contract with the Phillies, the time has come to look at just how much value the Hall-of-Fame bound right-hander will have at this point in his career.

Opinions vary – some think Martinez is no better than the team’s other fifth starter candidates, some believe he is a vast improvement, while others are caught up in the big-name status he comes with. Personally, I’m a mixture of all three.

But since this is Philadelphia, let’s first look at the negatives.

Financial

Before the season started, Pedro was looking for a deal that paid him roughly $5M in 2009. Needless to say, none of the the thirty teams bit. The contract he has received from the Phillies is worth $1M, and, with incentives, could reach $1.5M. All in all, it’s a low-risk, high reward situation that is less expensive than many originally believed.

GM Ruben Amaro has stated that the addition of Pedro Martinez would not quell the team’s pursuit of Roy Halladay, but one would imagine that the spending has to stop somewhere. The Phillies are already paying more in player salary this season than they ever have, and if they were to trade for Halladay, they would have to pay a portion of his large 2009 salary.

Fans rarely, if ever, concern themselves with the pockets of their respective team’s ownership group, but let’s think logically about the Phillies financial situation for a second. They are already selling out nearly every night, and the stadium is poised to set new attendance records by seasons end. Adding Martinez and Halladay would not do much for attendance, because there is not much more to be done! Of course, the addition of these two pitchers would heighten the Phillies’ chances of a playoff berth, but in a weak, injury-riddled NL East, the postseason is already a large possibility. At what point does the player payroll shrink the team’s profit enough to make a move for Halladay…unessential?

I doubt that any of you want to hear about that. You, like me, want the Phillies to do what is necessary to bolster the starting rotation in order to increase the chances of winning a first round playoff series. Imagine that the Phillies end up playing the San Francisco Giants in the NLDS and are faced with the 1-2-3 of Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, and Jonathan Sanchez/Randy Johnson/Barry Zito. Being able to match that with Halladay-Hamels-Blanton/Happ would almost guarantee a series win against a weak offensive squad. But Hamels-Blanton-Happ? Tough to tell.

Quick aside: it is unrealistic to think the Blue Jays would accept a deal that does not include either Kyle Drabek or J.A. Happ, so no more time should be wasted on fantasies. It WILL take Drabek/Happ, Michael Taylor, Jason Donald, and an Andrew Carpenter-type to snag Halladay. We’re talking about a top-five pitcher in the game. While this may sound like a lot to give up, recognize that Taylor is blocked for at least two more years, Donald has been nothing special this year, and as good as J.A. Happ has been, his production will never come close to Halladay’s. He is cheaper and younger, but should not be “untouchable.” Drabek’s stock seems to rise every day, and it would be tough to see him go, but there are no guarantees that he will be a successful major league pitcher. This reminds me of the Yankees commitment to Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy in the Johan Santana trade talks. Do you think the Yankees wish they budged two years ago? I sure do. (Okay, back to Pedro.)

Velocity

My brother, Eric Seidman of Baseball Prospectus, wrote for BP and ESPN.com yesterday that “Pedro’s projection pegs him as virtually equivalent to what the Phillies could have expected from the likes of Rodrigo Lopez, Kyle Kendrick and a number of other internal options. However, if he is truly capable of hitting 91-93 mph with the heater as recent reports indicate, he carries much more upside than the revolving door of fifth starters currently employed by the defending champs.”

This is a HUGE ”if.” Reports have varied on the velocity of Pedro’s fastball. Earlier in the year when teams were scouting him, word came out that he was steadily throwing 85 mph. Now we hear 91-93.

Martinez’ average fastball has not hit 90 mph on the radar gun since 2003. Last year, it was 87. It should come to no surprise that the decrease in his fastball has led to the worst few seasons of his career.

2008 Was Dreadful to Pedro

In 2008, Martinez had the worst ERA, strikeout rate, HR rate, line drive rate, and opponent batting average of his career. His walk rate was the worst since 1993, his first full season in the majors. Batters made contact on a whopping 68% of his pitches out of the strike zone, BY FAR the worst percentage he has ever seen. His career number is 49%, and he had even lowered that in two of his three seasons with the Mets before 2008. An increase like that is astronomical, and is a direct result of less velocity and movement on the fastball.

Martinez has always relied heavily on movement and corner-painting, but a flat 87 mph fastball will not miss many bats, regardless of where it is placed. Once the velocity and movement go, it’s hard to find a different way to get guys out. Just ask Tom Glavine.

Why 2009 Will Be Better

If Pedro IS able to hit that 91-93 mph range, however, we will be looking at an inexpensive improvement to the starting rotation. Even if his fastball is in in the 89-91 range, he has the chance to be very effective, and I’ll tell you why.

From 2005-2007, Martinez was viewed as the ace of the New York Mets pitching staff. Unfortunately, he no longer had the “stuff” of an ace. The Red Sox recognized that and made the wise decision to let him become a free agent. Enormous pressure was placed on him to be the man he was in Boston, and he had relative success in his first season with the Mets. But the expectations of Pedro duplicating his success from 1997-2003, the best seven-year stretch of any pitcher in major league history, were absurd.

It wasn’t until Johan Santana arrived in New York that Pedro could be slotted into a more fitting role as a second or third starter. But he was not even THAT anymore, and he began trying to do too much. He couldn’t throw the fastball by guys anymore, no matter if it was on the black or not. And batters become more patient with Pedro, swinging at 10% fewer pitches in the strike zone than his career average. Simply put, New York was a bad place to be for Pedro Martinez.

But Philadelphia is the perfect fit. The Phillies are not expecting Martinez to be their savior, they are simply asking him to be a solid fourth or fifth starter. Little pressure is being placed upon him, and it is not hard at all to imagine him exceeding our expectations of being a six-inning, three-run, starter. I’m not saying he’ll go seven innings in his first start, but he has a good chance of being very productive at the back-end of the rotation.

There is also the unquantifiable aspect of…fun. Pedro is a very exciting, charismatic presence. Anyone who has watched baseball closely over the last ten years can attest to that. He always seems to develop a terrific rapport with young, especially those of Latin descent. With the Mets, it seemed like any time a player got a key hit while Pedro was pitching or made a nice defensive play, it carried the added bonus of “doing it for Pedro.” When things are going well, he is all smiles. The Phillies fit his personality to a tee, with a loose, friendly atmosphere and the presence of a true players manager in Charlie Manuel.

Who Does Pedro Replace?

Let’s fast forward to early August, after Pedro is signed, suited, and ready to go. He has just completed his final minor league start in preparation for the bigs, and he is called up to the Phillies. Who does he replace? In all honesty, if the Phillies are looking to be the best possible team they can be, the answer would be Jamie Moyer. Rodrigo Lopez has looked VERY good in his first two starts with the Phillies, and not just from a numbers standpoint. He has shown that he has tremendous movement on all of his pitches and uses the corners wisely. He is fully capable of inducing double plays, as he showed in his second start, and has worked well out of jams.

Moyer, on the other hand, has been very, very bad this season. Sure, he has the occasional solid outing, but the 8-6 record is completely a product of good run support. His 5.99 ERA is terrible, as is his 1.50 WHIP and .303 opponent batting average. In addition to the plethora of hits he is giving up, he has already given up more homers this year (21) than all of last year (20.) His ground ball/fly ball ratio is also getting worse. This is likely a result of Moyer inexplicably throwing so, so many more fastballs. In his time with the Phillies, he has thrown fastballs roughly 40% of the time. This season? Try 65%. That’s a 25% increase! For a guy whose fastball tops out at 82 mph. Hmm…

I’m sure I will draw the wrath of many fans, but these are all signs that it is time to call it a career. Moyer had a tremendous year in 2008, but he is showing his age in ’09 and it is no longer acceptable to justify his bad outings, especially if better options become available.