A Look Ahead: The Dog Days
Posted by Jason Bintliff, Tue, August 04, 2009 08:00 AM | Comments: 35
Posts
August is here and the Phillies are sitting comfortably in first place in the N.L. East.
The Phillies come back home to the friendly bounds of Citizens Bank Park after embarking on a seven game road trip that saw the pinstripes win only three. Despite the 3-4 record, the Phillies still maintain a commanding lead in the division, up five games over the Marlins.
A day off Monday and it’s back to business.
Tuesday, the Colorado Rockies come back to Philly, leaders in the race for the Wild Card over the Giants by a half a game. The Rockies have been streaking as of late, winning their last four games. They are 6-4 in their last ten and are making the rest of the league take notice.
The series kicks off with Jamie Moyer taking the hill against Rockies right-hander, Jason Hammel. Hammel is 5-6 overall and sports a 4.66 ERA. He is coming off his worst start of the season, a five running shellacking against the Mets. He failed to finish the second inning.
Moyer on the other hand is coming off a hot July, going 4-1 for the month with a 3.30 ERA. The old veteran looks to spin some of his magic against the Rockies, an upstart team that Moyer tends to feast on.
Wednesday night Rookie of the Year candidate, J.A. Happ gets the nod against Rockie lefty, Jorge De La Rosa. Happ has lost his last two starts, but now that the trade deadline has passed, the Phils hope he can focus again on pitching and not moving to Canada. Uncertainty still looms for Happ as he may find himself back in the bullpen when newly acquired Pedro Martinez is back to fighting shape.
De La Rosa is 9-7 overall with a 4.68 ERA. The Phillies will probably have a tough time with De La Rosa as he has been tough to hit in his last few games and pitches lefties extremely well. He is also much better on the road than in Denver.
The series wraps up on Thursday and Cliff Lee make his first appearance in Philadelphia as a good guy. Lee gets the ball coming off a spectacular debut for the Phil’s, pitching a one run complete game. Lee isn’t quite as sharp in the day as he is at night but has posted a 2.11 ERA in the last month.
Aaron Cook toes the rubber for Colorado in the finale. Cook is 10-3 with a 3.88 ERA. He is a ground ball pitcher which will be a good strategy at Citizens Bank.
The weekend series will showcase a showdown between the N.L. Easts two top teams as the Marlins come to town for a weekend thriller.
The Marlins are making noise, having gone 7-3 in their last ten. Despite being five games back on the Phillies, they haven’t given up the fight and still have both the wild card and the division in their sight. A good weekend against Philadelphia and they could start to make things interesting again. A good series or possibly a sweep for the Phillies and the Marlins could be buried.
Joe Blanton starts for the Phils on Friday and will face the Marlins Ricky Nolasco. Blanton has been the most consistent starter for the Phillies and brings a very respectable 4.02 ERA to the match.
Nolasco is one of Florida’s hottest pitchers. Don’t let his 5.00 ERA fool you, he has been real good as of late, retiring the last 14 batters he faced against Chicago. In his last three starts he has only surrendered three earned but has only gotten one decision, a win over San Diego.
Cole Hamels and Jamie Moyer finish the series, with Moyer having great success against the Fish, who can never seem to figure him out.
The Phillies have been decent at the plate, but as stated earlier, have lacked timely hitting. The long ball was absent but should return for role call once the Phils get back home.
This week a little bit of run support will go a long way. The Phillies could very well put another amazing streak together and win five of six. They play the Marlins really well and the Rockies, although good, just don’t match up well against the Phillies.
A good week and the Phillies faithful may start to practice counting down from 50, which is where the Phillies magic number should stand.
A bad week and the divisional noose will start to tighten and the Marlins will inch ever so closer to over taking the front-runners.

















Posts: 0 bull
please no mention of magic numbers
Posted: 08:26 AM on August 4, 2009
Posts: 0 cas
I’ve been counting down the magic number since it went below 100.
Posted: 08:56 AM on August 4, 2009
Posts: 0 Mike N
It wouldn’t hurt if Second Half Ryan Howard showed up any day now.
Posted: 09:32 AM on August 4, 2009
Posts: 0 JoeFan
I’ve not heard anyone address the question of which pitchers the Phillies will keep when everyone is healthy and ready to play.
Since the beginning of the season the Phillies have added 3 additional pitchers: Lee, Martinez, and Lopez. So when everyone is healthy and ready to play we have 3 pitchers too many. Assuming Happ/Moyer is moved to the pen when Martinez is activated and assuming everyone gets healthy we’d have 10 pitchers vying for 7 bullpen spots:
Lidge
Madson
Romero
Eyre
Park
Coundrey
Durbin
Myers
Lopez
Happ/Moyer
So who stays and who goes? I assume Lopez is gone, but which two others? It sounds like Coundrey might not be ready for awhile, so that might delay the decision. Any thoughts?
Posted: 09:43 AM on August 4, 2009
Posts: 0 Keystone
JoeFan, rosters expand to 40 in 4 weeks so I don’t think the Phils think it is a huge concern.
Posted: 10:22 AM on August 4, 2009
Posts: 0 Chuck
Jason says, “The Phillies are sitting comfortably in first place” and then remarks that “they still maintain a commanding lead in the division.”….
Let’s see…During the road trip the Phillies lost 2 games off their lead, an almost 30% slide and they looked pretty awful in Frisco in doing so. Cliff Lee and Joe Blanton were bright spots, for sure, but Mr. MVP, Cole Hamels is downright puzzling right now and Ryan Howard needs to show up and get hot.
I really don’t see this, 5 games, as a commanding lead, with the Phillies scuffling and the Marlins breathing down their backs and Colorado on a tear of late. This week will tell a lot. If the Phillies can exit the weekend series still with a 5 game lead then the homestand will be a success in my opinion. Anything short of that will be trouble.
Posted: 10:24 AM on August 4, 2009
Posts: 0 christopher
joe my thoughts are you have to make way too many assumptions to get to the point you’re talking about. while i’d like to see pedro do well, i have no faith at this point he’ll ever make a start for the phils. the issues regarding health, like you said with condrey, are vague at best. let’s just let things play out and see where the chips fall, the speculation at this point is futile.
Posted: 10:32 AM on August 4, 2009
Posts: 0 Groty
What would moving Happ back to the pen do to his R.O.Y. contention?
Posted: 10:39 AM on August 4, 2009
Posts: 0 NJ
Moving Happ to the pen would flat-line his ROY candidacy.
I can’t help but feel the Phillies need to take some more bad losses in the coming weeks, to me there’s a worry complacency will be an issue especially going into the short play-off series which looks like it’ll be against either the Cards, Giants or Rockies. This team is so used to making up ground to get into the play-offs and haven’t been in a position where they’ve had to prepare themselves mentally going into the last couple of weeks of the regular season, this is going to be new ground. We’ve just got to hope that lynchpins of this team like Ryan Howard and Cole Hamels start to find the peak of their game when it matters, as much as I’d love to see MVP contention and glossy numbers the only thing we have to worry about is whether this team can get themselves ready to be a play-off team and that won’t show up in the win loss column or the individual stats.
Posted: 10:53 AM on August 4, 2009
Posts: 0 JoeFan
Keystone/Christopher,
Both very good points. Thank you.
One other observation. Starting on August 18, the Phillies play 27 games in 26 days. They play 26 straight days without a day off, ending with a double header on Sep 13 against the Mets. I’m guessing that Charlie could use 6 starters for part of that stretch (although the way Lee and Blanton are pitching they should pitch every 5th day).
Posted: 10:55 AM on August 4, 2009
Posts: 0 The Original Chuck P
Chuck – a 5 game lead in August is huge. If I would have offered you a 5 game lead in August at the beginning of the season, you would have taken it. As hot as the Marlins have been, we have a 5 game lead… the Marlins are putting pressure on themselves, proclaiming that the division is within reach. That’s bulletin board material… shouldn’t they be focusing on the wild card first? I think that we take 4 of six from the Rox/Fish…
Posted: 11:08 AM on August 4, 2009
Posts: 0 The Original Chuck P
Jason Hammel/Moyer… I like Moyer here (we should tag Hammel)
Happ/De La Rosa… DLR is due for a bad outing and Happ is due for a win
Cook/Lee is a tough match-up and could go either way (does Lee let the adrenaline get to him?). In the Marlins series:
Nolasco/Blanton… Nolasco has been tough over his last three… three starts at home and within the friendly confines of Petco. Let’s see how he does at CBP. Toss up…
TBA – Hamels… gotta think Hamels gets back on track against the minor league call-up.
Johnson/Moyer… Sunday’s game is the most interesting matchup: Buzz-Saw, Josh Johnson, against the Engimatic Marlin Slayer, Jamie Moyer.
The Fish are a tough team… no doubt about it (they were my preseason pick for the WC) and newly acquired 1B/3B, Nick Johnson, is a Phillie killer. Their pitching has devastating potential but injuries have hit them pretty hard. Badenhop and Sanchez are on the DL which means that they might have to start Sean West on Saturday their most talented minor league arm. He started 10 games with the big league club with very little success… his major flaw: he has yet to develop a major league breaking ball. In the end, their youth might be their downfall… my prediction: looking ahead, the Marlins lose 2 out of 3 to the Nats before coming to CBP, suddenly finding themselves 7 games back (and the glass half empty).
Posted: 11:09 AM on August 4, 2009
Posts: 0 psujoe
I liked our 7 game lead much better. Huge 6 game home stand with the fish playing the Nats. I agree that I’ll be happy up 5 with 2 in hand after this week.
We end the season with 10 of 13 on the road. This lead is far from commanding, IMO. Other than Ibanez none of our top guys have been able to take games off(Ok, Rollins was benched for 4). The lack of rest concerns me down the stretch.
Posted: 11:13 AM on August 4, 2009
Posts: 0 NJ
Remember it’s only as little as a 5 game lead over the Fish if the Phils loose both games in hand.
Posted: 11:18 AM on August 4, 2009
Posts: 0 Chuck
Original Chuck P…..we’ll see. Next Monday I could be saying to you that things look very bleak or…..eating my words. Honestly, I will be happy with a split of these 6 games. 4 of 6 would be awesome.
Posted: 11:24 AM on August 4, 2009
Posts: 0 Georgie
I’m going to Reading tomorrow night, Pedro is starting according to R-Phils website, so that should be interesting.
I really don’t see the Phils sending Happ to the bullpen, I think chances are it will be Pedro if he even makes it to the big team.
Posted: 11:58 AM on August 4, 2009
Posts: 0 The Original Chuck P
Our 32 road wins is more than any other team in baseball… 32-19 on the road is remarkable. That tells me that a.) we’re not playing as well as we should at home and b.) we are probaly going to drop some of those road series’ down the stretch. Law of averages… hopefully, this 6 game homestand is a good one.
4 out of 6 is expected…
Gotta take it one series and one game at a time and tonight we have to get the bats going against Jason Hammel. It looks like it’s going to be a great night for baseball (high 70′s to low 80′s with less humidity) so cheers to all!
Posted: 12:00 PM on August 4, 2009
Posts: 0 Evan
FYI, it is “Jamie” not “Jaime” …. Jaime is spanish for James….
Posted: 12:10 PM on August 4, 2009
Posts: 0 Manny
Can we please stop sending Happ to the pen and Pedro to the rotation? Two things need to happen BEFORE that takes place:
1) Pedro needs to be very good in the minors. So far, not so good.
2) Happ needs to start blowing up. So far, he’s still our best pitcher.
Why are we taking these two things for granted, especially the first one (Pedro looked like Carrasco (09 version) in his last outing)??
Posted: 12:14 PM on August 4, 2009
Posts: 0 Geoff A.
psujoe, the phillies end with 7 straight home games. You forgot about October. They have 4 more home games before playoffs begin. Late end due to WBC. So they do have a 10 game road trip but get to come home for 7 straight to close it out in front of the home faithful. I might just be at all 7 games. I held my season tickets back for all of them just in case they are meaningful games.
Posted: 12:24 PM on August 4, 2009
Posts: 0 paul garrett
Cole’s last start wasn’t that bad. If Howard makes that ten foot toss we still have the 3-1 lead. Don’t underestimate those Giants either.
Let’s all enjoy this critical part of the season–we are on the cusp of greatness.
Posted: 12:34 PM on August 4, 2009
Posts: 0 ChaseUtleyMVP
when did you write this? or did you even look at the standings?
the rockies aren’t 2 games up on the giants.
they are a half game up
Posted: 01:22 PM on August 4, 2009
Posts: 0 Bruce
paul garrett says~ “Cole’s last start wasn’t that bad.” Huh? You must be looking through rose-colored glasses. (chuckles)
When Howard attempted a foolish toss to Hamels, the game was already tied at 3 apiece. Before that error, F. Sanchez had doubled off Hamels to center, B. Zito and E. Velez scored. As noted in my post for another thread, it was Hamel’s ineffectiveness that the Giants took advantage for 10 hits and 7 runs in 5+ innings. When he couldn’t get an out with first four batters in the 6th inning, Manuel had enough and yanked him out of the game. Simply put, Hamels stunk and has become a growing concern as his ERA rose to 4.68. All eyes on Hamels for his next start.
Posted: 01:23 PM on August 4, 2009
Posts: 0 The Original Chuck P
Bruce… two batters earlier, a 2 out broken-bat single by the pitcher extended that inning… if Zito’s bat doesn’t break, that inning is probably over with the score 3-1 and Howard never gets a chance to botch that play.
Posted: 02:14 PM on August 4, 2009
Posts: 0 Philly Texan
Bruce,
Sorry, man, but did you watch the game on Sunday or just read the box score?
Hamels didn’t stink.
He was straight dealing for 4.2 innings. He’d allowed one run on just three hits and no walks, was leading 3-1 and was cruising. He had retired 10 straight batters.
Pitchers who retire 10 straight batters aren’t getting lit up.
Then came the broken bat single by Zito (!), the bloop hit and the error. Next thing you know it’s 4-3. The Phils offense has a quick inning, and Hamels goes right back out there and fell apart in the sixth.
That fifth inning was a fluke. Cole made three really good pitches that should have gotten him out of the inning — one each to Zito, Velez and on the error.
Fluky innings happen in baseball and Cole should have responded better.
So if you want to jump on Hamels for getting too frustrated and losing his command or for not bearing down at a critical time, I’m right there with you.
But don’t tell me he stunk or got lit up because that’s just not true.
His stuff is still there. He’s showed prolonged stints of the 2008 Hamels in his last few starts. And there’s still a good chance he’ll pull it together for the stretch run.
Posted: 02:20 PM on August 4, 2009
Posts: 0 Manny
I’ll agree with that Philly Texan…well put
Posted: 02:30 PM on August 4, 2009
Posts: 0 Don M
Yea the problem with Hamels is that as soon as something doesn’t go the way he planned it… he loses his cool … and when you normally get by on being “Ultra-Cool Hollywood Hamels” .. you have to keep your head in the game
That is why I said earlier this season that I was more confident with Happ on the mound than I was with Hamels … outside of his Playoff run last year (which is historic, amazing, unreal.. and whatever other great words we can think of)
Has Hamels lived up his his “ACE” billing?
Giving up 10 hits (bloops, rockets, broken-bats or otherwise) isn’t good… Moyer gets ripped on here when he gives up 8 hits, and more often than not, they are bloops …
Hamels needs to get in gear and start pitching like he’s capable… his arm is probably SHOT from throwing 6,789 innings last year.. but if that’s the case, skip a start or two and get set for September and beyond
Posted: 02:46 PM on August 4, 2009
Posts: 0 The Original Chuck P
The good, the bad and the ugly…
The Good- Hamels stuff was there (velocity, bite, location)
The Bad- after the two bloopers, te allowed himself to get flustered and really lost focus. He was fidgety, he was calling off Ruiz and his composure was absolutely gone.
The Ugly- the score.
If he watches the tape of that game, I think that Cole will be fine… he’ll see everything that he needs to see to realize that he’s not that far off. He will turn it around…
Posted: 03:00 PM on August 4, 2009
Posts: 0 Manny
Cole since the All-star break:
He was good in that 5 inning -rain delayed game, good again in his 7inning, 3ER performance against SD, then really good in his next outing (8 innings, 9Ks 1ER), and was very good also in the first 4 innings of the last game…
To me, this shows that he’s already turning it around… he still needs to remember how to keep his cool when things go bad… but his pitching is coming back and most signs are that he’ll keep getting better.
–
The one player that really concerns me at this point is Lidge… Think about this hypothetical scenario: Cliff Lee goes 8 innings, and Lidge comes in for the 1-run save in an NLDS game… I’d rather not watch.
I remember watching him shut down the Mets beautifully in back-to-back games at CBP, not letting anyone get on base. If he could only regain the form he had for those two games… he looked flat-out dominant.
Posted: 03:17 PM on August 4, 2009
Posts: 0 The Original Chuck P
I thought that they would skip that last start… seemed like the perfect time to do it with Hamels coming off of a couple of long outings. If you sit Hamels against Zito you have set it up so that Lee/Hamels would be in order going back to back (would have been Hamels today and Lee tomorrow).
Posted: 03:34 PM on August 4, 2009
Posts: 0 shag beta sigma delta
I have to agree the Happ thing to the pen is outrageous, he has one kind of bad game in what 8 starts or 9. The guy can pitch, and he will remain in the rotation, Moyer is not going away either, which I feel is good, despite the haters in here. Pedro probably will not pitch on the phillies, unless he agrees to go to the pen to be called up. If they struggle during this weeks homestand I might worry a little. But the last week does not bother me they have not had a day off in a what two weeks. And were do to struggle on the road a little bit eventually.
And despite his average, which is down from last year even, Brutlett got on base a couple of times last year in the post season if I am not mistaking so cut the guy some slack, he is not on the team to hit. That is why the Lee trade was so awesome cause they also go a right handed bench bat that can play all three out field positions.
The lack of real work for the pen is what concerns me, did I miss something or has Mad Dog not pitched in like a week. But I have faith and think the pen will come around in Sept Oct. and Nov.
Posted: 03:38 PM on August 4, 2009
Posts: 0 The Original Chuck P
I agree with all of you… Happ should be in the rotation until he gives us reason to believe that he needs to be replaced and until Pedro Martinez proves that he’s the better alternative. Right now, neither has happened.
I am hoping that the layoff helps those guys in the pen… will it? I don’t know but it’s certainly better than being overworked (especially right now while guys like Romero, Durbin and Condrey are on the mend).
Lidge will be fine… it hasn’t been pretty or easy with Lidge but I think he’s almost there. I can say with almost 100% certainty that the extra off days will help Lidge… anyone else watch The Pen? If you did, you can vouch for me. While Lidge was on the DL, he was like a caged animal… very persistent about getting back with the team. He was absolutely rushing his trainers to get him back into the big leagues and I have no doubt that he wasn’t 100% healthy when he came back.
Posted: 04:10 PM on August 4, 2009
Posts: 0 Baseballbriefs.com
Baseballbriefs.com tracking back A Look Ahead: The Dog Days…
Baseballbriefs.com tracking back A Look Ahead: The Dog Days…
Posted: 04:20 PM on August 4, 2009
Posts: 50 Jason Bintliff
Chase Utley MVP…
I apologize, you are correct, the Rockies are only .5 game up. When I checked the standings last night, for some reason it told me that they were 2 games up. My apologies for the error. Bad reporting I guess.
Posted: 04:35 PM on August 4, 2009
Posts: 0 christopher
so we should ignore cole falling apart in the 6th because the 5th inning wasn’t entirely his fault? pretend the runs he was responsible for in the 6th inning didn’t happen because he was “straight dealing” a few innings previous? who cares? he stunk against a mediocre offense. people need to stop making excuses for him. he needs to get this season back on track and fast.
Posted: 06:10 PM on August 4, 2009