Phillies Nation

Saturday afternoon’s frustrating loss in the Atlanta heat placed the Phillies in a precarious position. The division lead was shrinking, once again, and another opportunity to put a pesky rival away was lost. With Cy-Young candidate Javier Vazquez scheduled to toe the rubber in the series finale Sunday night, the Phillies found themselves poised to lose a fourth consecutive series to the Braves.

But what followed was yet another spectacular performance from J.A. Happ.

The rookie lefthander struggled with control for the second straight start, walking six and hitting a batter, but was able to minimize the damage by allowing only three hits over 7 2/3 innings. Allowing seven free passes is absolutely unacceptable, but the ten ground balls and two double plays Happ induced allowed him to work out of self-made trouble. None of those baserunners scored, with the lone Atlanta run coming on an opposite-field homer off the bat of notorious Phillie-killer Matt Diaz.

Happ picked up the much-needed win to improve his record to 9-2, and lowered his ERA to 2.66. The last NL rookie pitcher to finish the season with an ERA that low? Hideo Nomo, who went 13-6 with a 2.54 ERA in 1995 en route to a Rookie of the Year award, an honor that Happ is deserved of and would likely win if the season ended today.

In case Happ’s once surprising, now expected, dominance for a division-leader hasn’t sold you yet, let’s take a look at all of the NL candidates to see if the numbers tell a different story.

• J.A. Happ (PHI): 9-2, 2.66 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, .221 Opp. BA, .651 Opp. OPS. 128.2 IP, 102 H, 47 BB, 92 K, 13 HR*. 2 CG SHO’s

Happ ranks sixth in the league in ERA and tenth in WHIP. He is fifth in opponents batting average and eighth in opponents OPS, ahead of Matt Cain, Johan Santana, Carlos Zambrano, Roy Oswalt, Zach Duke, and Rich Harden.

• Randy Wells (CHC): 9-5, 3.01 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, .256 Opp. BA. 113.2 IP, 109 H, 27 BB, 71 SO.

As you can see, Wells has been worse than Happ in every category, and the fact that he plays for a fading team doesn’t help his case. He has averaged 6.3 IP per start, to Happ’s 6.7.

• Tommy Hanson (ATL): 8-2, 3.05 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, .244 Opp. BA. 79.2 IP, 73 H, 29 BB, 62 SO.

Hanson has the most upside of any NL rookie pitcher, but again, doesn’t have numbers superior to Happ. He has looked dominant in seven different outings, but has lasted more than six innings in only four of his 13 starts.

• Colby Rasmus (StL): .259/.315/.427 BA/OBP/SLG, for an OPS of .742, which is exactly league average. 12 HR, 40 RBI, 20 DBL.

Rasmus has been okay, nothing more, nothing less. He has a few game-winning hits, but none of his stats stand out. Despite Mitch Williams’ ridiculous, un-researched claim on the MLB Network several weeks ago, Rasmus CANNOT hit left-handed pitching, with a .156 BA in 77 AB, with only two extra-base hits. According to UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating), he has been by far the best defensive centerfielder in the league, but that stat lies, because his two outfield partners (Ryan Ludwick and Rick Ankiel) cover so little ground that Rasmus has been forced to cover more. If Shane Victorino were flanked by two Pat Burrell’s, he would have an astronomical UZR, also. The addition of Matt Holliday has helped matters because of his above average defense, but also remember that Rasmus is basically a platoon player, decreasing the sample size.

• Andrew McCutchen (PIT): .285/.352/.473 for an OPS of .825. 7 HR, 34 RBI, 17 DBL, 5 TRI, 12/13 SB, one 3-HR game.

McCutchen will be a very good leadoff batter for a very long time, and his numbers this season are above-average, but he is projected to play only 109 games. Unless he has an amazing September, his late callup will hurt his chances.

• Garrett Jones (PIT): .292/.351/.610 for an exceptional OPS of .962. 12 HR, 20 RBI, 11 DBL in 154 AB, 6/7 SB.

Jones opened all of our eyes by homering against the Phillies in all three of their meetings (all Pirates losses.) He has shown exceptional power this season and has found a home in the middle of the Bucs’ lineup. However, his numbers have decreased exponentially since his July debut, and he is projected to finish the season hitting .270 with 17 HR and 36 RBI, hardly ROY-type numbers.

• Dexter Fowler (COL): .270/.365/.413 for an OPS of .778. 4 HR, 30 RBI, 27 DBL, 6 TRI, 26/35 SB.

Fowler has been the catalyst for the wild-card leading Rockies and has had a scorching month of August. He has an above-average OBP and has tremendous speed, despite producing an “okay” SB%. As he gains more experience, he will steal with more success, and it appears he understands that you need to actually GET ON BASE to utilize your speed, unlike the Willy Taveras’ and Ryan Freel’s of the world. He should finish in the top 3 for ROY voting.

As you can see, Happ doesn’t have overwhelming competition for the award. He has outpitched Wells and Hanson and been more valuable to his team’s success than any of these players, with Fowler being the only one to come close.

Not only does Happ have great numbers, but he has gotten better as the season has gone on. Since becoming a starter, Happ has compiled monthly ERA’s of 2.29, 3.00, 2.93, and 1.19. Opponents hit .164 off of him in May when he first began starting, and are hitting .187 in August, when he has really hit stride. This month, Happ has allowed just 3 runs and 14 hits in 22.2 innings. He has pitched well at home and on the road, during the day and the night, against lefties and against righties.

Since 1989, only five of the twenty NL ROY’s have been pitchers (Nomo, Kerry Wood, Scott Williamson, Jason Jennings, Dontrelle Willis.) Based on what those pitchers have done in their respective careers, Happ might not want the award.

But there is no question that he’s the favorite to win it.