Are Pitch Count Totals Worrisome?
Posted by Pat Gallen, Wed, September 16, 2009 12:14 PM | Comments: 16
Analysis, News, Opinion, Posts
When a guy hasn’t thrown 130 pitches in over eight years – back when he was at the very peak of his Hall of Fame career – then proceeds to do it seemingly out of nowhere, it garners some attention. Pedro Martinez reached that now infamous plateau on Sunday against his former club, and had not done so since May 2001.
These days, pitch counts are examined with more precision than Dr. James Andrews with an elbow. The game has evolved into one with limitations (see: Joba Chamberlain) and precautions at every turn, mostly due to the exorbitant contracts handed out like candy. It wasn’t always this way. Just recently has the emphasis turned to a magic number, which presently is locked in at 100.
Charlie Manuel has done a fine job of breaching that high water mark with his pitchers on more than one occasion lately, and many have taken notice. Cliff Lee tossed a complete game shutout against the lowly Nationals on Tuesday, hurling 124 pitches in the process. Cole Hamels on Friday tossed 113 in just 6 2/3 innings. The now-injured J.A. Happ has thrown 114, 117, 118, and 127 pitches during his 19 starts in 2009.
This brand of thinking was born from the idea that the Phillies bullpen cannot get the job done, therefore it’s wise to let the starters go as long as they can. Manuel realizes the shortcomings of the relief corps, now electing to see just how much punishment he can inflict on the arms of the five starters.
If you delve deeper into the numbers, however, you’ll notice that Phillies pitchers have been given a fairly light workload over the course of the season. Only Cliff Lee (third overall) ranks in the top 45 in Major League Baseball for pitches thrown. In ’09, Lee is averaging 106.4 pitchers per start, with four of those reaching the 120 pitch mark. Joe Blanton and Cole Hamels just rank inside the top 50 in the category.
The focus should not be put squarely on the final tally, but on how that pitcher got there. In last night’s performance, Lee cruised through the first three innings, and struggled mightily in only the fourth, as he loaded the bases before retiring the side. Manuel was able to allow Lee to hang for 124 pitches because of the low pressure of the situation. Had Lee jammed the bases throughout the night and struggled with location, it’s ridiculous to think he would have been out there late in the game.
Same goes for Pedro on Sunday. Martinez struggled during the first two frames, but settled down in innings three through six, allowing Manuel to stretch him out a little more than usual.
In my opinion, the number 100 is being overused. If a pitcher is feeling it, while showing no signs of fatigue or wildness, then allow him to at least approach 120. An anxiety sets in once a pitcher hits 110, and that way of thinking is why bullpens are worked to the bone. Take the Dodgers for instance: Joe Torre has allowed his bullpen to throw over 500 innings so far this season, second most in the NL. Compare that with 423 by the Phillies, and just 391 by the St. Louis Cardinals, and it’s amazing the success L.A. has had. Torre rarely allows his pitchers to breathe before he yanks them.
It wasn’t that long ago that pitchers were given a much longer leash. At the turn of the century, it was the norm to let guys work well into the 120’s. In 2000, 160 starters tossed 125 or more pitches in a game. Fast-forward to ’07, and that number dipped dramatically to a laughable 14. Are their arms really so fragile? In no way am I preaching that guys should be out there all nine innings while nearing 140 or 150, or even Nolan Ryan-esque figures (he once threw 259 pitches in a 12-inning game – no, not like that). It just can’t be that difficult to allow guys to pitch through a little fatigue. They are pampered enough, let them stay on the mound and earn that paycheck.
Before we begin to freak at the sight of 115, 120, or even 125, think about the situation first. Will Charlie allow Pedro to throw 130 again next time out? It’s Unlikely. But remember that 100 is just a number, and one that means very little, especially when playing for a division crown. As the Phils draw nearer to wrapping up the East, perhaps it would be in Manuel’s best interests to limit the pitch count of some of his guys merely for the sake of being rested for the postseason. For now though, enjoy seeing the starters with staying power. Because the alternative is the battered bullpen.
Posts: 0 The Dipsy
I think a lot of the reason you don’t see a lot of pitchers throw that many pitches anymore is the annoying obsession with lefty/right, right/lefty matchups. Give me a break. For example, if Joel Piniero, generally a “middling” type pitcher as far as his career goes, has pitched into the seventh inning of a game, and pitched well. Lets say he gets two outs and walks a guy and a lefty is coming up (no matter that Piniero’s spot in the batting order isn’t due up for two more innings), LaRussa will walk out there and yank him. Its ridiculous. Charlie doesn’t do it and I like that. Its all so silly now.
The Dipsy
Posted: 12:53 PM on September 16, 2009
Posts: 0 John Fire
Agreed. I hate pitch counts. Love when a starter can go the distance. And if his velocity and location are consistent, why pull him just because he reached some arbitrary count? 100 pitches is stupid and not scientific at all – what is the true difference between 100 and 115? Is there really THAT much more damage done by throwing a ball a few more times? Geez.
Posted: 12:57 PM on September 16, 2009
Posts: 0 SpankyYankee
How about that little girl throwing the ball back in after Dad caught it…guess she knew it was a worthless home hit by the phillies…guess ebay will have one less ball ….that was funny….hey Dad leave her home next time dummie lol lol lol that was funny ya gotta hand it to the fans in CBP….somewhat like the ones in Chicago.
Posted: 01:11 PM on September 16, 2009
Posts: 1317 Pat Gallen
I dont have time or resources to find out whether or not 115 does more “damage” than 100. I’d probably think no, I feel like its all about how you are built up to that point.
If a guy throws 100 pitches 100 times in a row, odds are he’s not going to respond well near 120. Now if you have a guy you build up to 120 after throwin 100, 105, 110, 115, then I would think it makes a little easier to get more out of him. But clearly Im not a doctor, that is purely unscientific.
Posted: 01:43 PM on September 16, 2009
Posts: 0 Bonezy
I agree totally that 100 pitches is a really dumb number. I think that a pitcher should be built up to throw 130-140 pitches every outing no matter who it is. Just in case you do have a good game going that you down tire out by the end. If it isn’t going well and you only throw 100 pitches, it isn’t because you got tired. Good puitchers in this league can throw 140 with no problem. Mostly because they strike out a lot of batters, thus throwing more pitches. Just my opinion, but the managers do baby these guys because they are making so much money and are afraid to hurt them.
Posted: 02:03 PM on September 16, 2009
Posts: 0 SpankYourYankee
Spanky, Whatcha still doin here? Shouldn’t you be with your fat lady prostitute?
Posted: 02:05 PM on September 16, 2009
Posts: 0 Duffie_D
Firstly, I believe that little girl got the ball back after throwing it out. Not sure on that, though, so if anyone else heard the same thing I’d like to hear it.
As far as pitch counts go, it seems to me that it really is mostly about trying to protect organizational investments. If a guy like Rick Porcello or Joba Chamberlain break a sweat they’re pulled out because they are young and highly skilled. The way the pay structure breaks down in baseball, great young players are most valuable because you don’t have to pay them like great players. From a business side I can understand it, but as a fan it can be frustrating.
Honestly, I believe that a great deal of Cole Hamels’s struggles earlier in the year can be attributed to his drastic increase in workload from 2007 to 2008 (the “Verducci Effect,” if you will). So I think there is definitely some base to the argument that pitch counts should be looked after. The number 100 does seem a bit arbitrary though. Also, I’d be much more willing to give veterans more leeway when it comes to racking up higher pitch counts.
It is somewhat ironic that two of the biggest perpetrators of strangely handled pitching staffs, Tony LaRussa and Joe Torre, are two of the most successful managers of this era. I have always thought LaRussa has an overly quick hook when it comes to his starters. I rarely have a complaint about when Charlie chooses to remove his starter. Maybe it only reflects how much I know about baseball, but I think LaRussa is an over-manager and an overrated manager.
Pat made another important point, and I think that is about stressful innings. A pitcher should have few problems going for 120 pitches if only about 10%-20% of those are under stressful circumstances like with runners in scoring position.
Kind of a long, rambling post on my part. Sorry.
Posted: 02:06 PM on September 16, 2009
Posts: 0 shag beta sigma delta
I am not a huge fan of pitch counts myself. But I think sometimes you have to look at the bigger picture. People on here talk about the extra innings Cole pitched last year as a reason for his lackluster up and down year this year. I would think with a five run lead in the bottom of the 8th you could have had a pinch hitter get some reps, maybe The Beard, or Fanky. Just for the sole purpose of letting Lee rest one inning, Because if you pen can not get the Nationals out with giving up 5 or 6 runs, then we should not even be in the playoffs. I do not mind Pedro throwing 130 pitches he has not pitched in a year, and he is not coming back next year so you can use him up. But Lee, if we want to keep him for more than one more year wouldn’t every inning he does not pitch this year be helpfull. Look at CC last year in the playoffs, was that due to the fact that he threw 7 complete games in the last month and half of the season.
Posted: 02:12 PM on September 16, 2009
Posts: 0 Duffie_D
Shag,
Cole’s increased workload from one season to the next is only a factor when combined with his young age (at least according to the Verducci Effect metrics). Cliff Lee already has a track record of being able to pitch 200+ innings in a season, and he’s 30 years old. Hamels is 25, a pretty significant difference. I don’t think giving the ball to Lee in the ninth inning comes close to overworking him. Don’t forget that CC last year had a run of starts where he pitched on short rest also, which was probably more of a factor than anything else in his playoff demise. Add into the mix the fact that CC is not a good playoff pitcher (2-3 with a 7.92 postseason ERA in 4 postseason series) and I don’t think the comparison between overworking Lee and overworking CC is a good one.
Admittedly, we don’t know what kind of postseason pitcher Lee is yet, but it is fair to say he will not be expected to be the ace in the playoffs. Cole has already proven he can do that, and Cole should get the ball for Game 1. Also, Pedro has proven he can be a postseason ace, but I’d still go with Lee as my number 2 guy come playoff time.
Posted: 02:34 PM on September 16, 2009
Posts: 0 Ari
Given that the Phillies have all but locked up the NL east at this point, I’d really like to see the starters get some rest before they start playing the games that actually matter (that being the playoffs). I know pitch count is “just a number”, but especially with the likes of Hamels (who was clearly overused last year which led to his slump this year), I’d like the extra wear and tear to be given to all those extra AAA pitchers they called up at the end of the season. When up 5-0 against the worst team in the league, rest your pitchers and give the ball to some minor leaguers who would love to get a crack at some real action. No point in risking injury this close to the playoffs.
Posted: 02:55 PM on September 16, 2009
Posts: 0 karen
I can only say thatI am noticing the pitch count obsession over the last 2 years. Prior to that I remember many pitchers going further into the games. THere is also that over emphasis on lefty/righty.
Posted: 04:45 PM on September 16, 2009
Posts: 0 Morris Buttermaker
I just hope hockey coaches don’t watch too much baseball. I fear the day a goalie is taken out of the game because he has made too many saves.
Posted: 05:00 PM on September 16, 2009
Posts: 0 George
I think a pitcher’s personality has to be figured in, too. Some guys just want to get that final out, that final inning, and if they’ve proven able to handle the extra work, fine. Usually a guy knows his own physical capabilities, and won’t risk his career by allowing a manager to abuse him. I’m sure Lee and Martinez both felt they would be fine. I’m sure Ruiz would have noticed them losing a little, be it velocity or location.
Posted: 05:10 PM on September 16, 2009
Posts: 0 therookie300
Pitchers need to be evaluated individually. I read a good article on si.com about the necessity of the five man rotation. Why not take your pitchers and find out what they can really handle out there, there are research places that do this. What if results showed that Cliff Lee could pitch effectively on three days rest? Why not get more starts out of a better pitcher over the course of a season? And for example say Happ was found to pitch better on 5 or 6 days rest(remember I am just making up examples here). Why not challenge the idea of a traditional 5 man rotation if it is found that certain pitchers perform better on certain amounts of rest? And that statement is true because humans are all inherently different. Now this idea just needs to get sold to a GM.
This game evolves all the time. Something like this would just continue in the evolution of the game.
Posted: 07:31 PM on September 16, 2009
Posts: 0 PhreeholdDave
The pitch count can be silly. It’s different for each pitcher. I remember Schilling had several 130+ pitch games when he was with the Phillies. And before that, how many 130 pitch games did Carlton, Ruthven, Christensen or Bunning have? Or how many must someone like Seaver, Drysdale or Palmer have had?
Look how many relievers have gone on the D/L for the Phillies this year? Lidge, Condrey and Romero are 3 that come to mind.
Posted: 04:53 AM on September 17, 2009
Posts: 0 JFM3
I know……it’s so irritating……plus it’s extremely annoying to hear commentators saying throughout the game “he’s thrown 54 pitches” “he’s at 75 pitches” “he’s thrown 105 pitches,looks like this will be it for him”…..it’s like I DON’T CARE HOW MANY PITCHES HE’S THROWN!!! I’d like to turn the TV volume down, but nowadays they show the stupid pitch track on the TV screen.
Bring back the workhorse pitcher!!!! Sorry,but Halladay and Sabathia are NOT workhorses in my book…….rack up 20 complete games in a season…..then I’ll consider calling them “workhorses”…….I am not all that old fashioned……I just don’t want to be annoyed watching a MLB game…..but I guess that’s too much to ask!!
Cy Young awards are cheapened, saves aren’t much of an achievement anymore, mediocre relief pitchers are making 7 and sometimes 8 figures a year………why????
Pitch counts……..pitch counts are RUINING Major League Baseball!!!!
Posted: 03:41 PM on February 6, 2010