Comments on: Reports: Dodgers Acquire Thome, Garland

By: j reed

j reed — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 22:23:53 +0000

joedad – your assuming the events are independent and their not…therefore applying the Multiplication Law of the Laws of Chance is not possible. Take a player’s age. It is reasonable to assume that the risk of injury increases with age and playing time. This is a conditional probability and as such requires Bayesian analysis. Furthermore your analysis fails to differentiate between chronic use and accidential, contact injuries. Also using DL appearances as your numerator is problematic.: What if the player in question hasn’t been on the DL? Does that mean he has no risk of injury as 0 divided by any number is 0. By the mere fact that a player can at anytime during a game get hit by a hard projectile is enough to disprove this possiblity.

By: jt

jt — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 21:36:36 +0000

i don’t think mannywood will be the last stop for thome,i think he returns to cleveland as a DH and they keep him til he reaches 600 homers and then he’ll likely retire.

By: jt

jt — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 21:30:34 +0000

kruk says the only reason the dodgers got thome was to stop the giants from getting him and putting him at 1B and adding that power in their lineup…gotta agree with him it doesn’t make any sense maybe their looking for him to be what matt stairs was for the phils last year but thome is more valuable then a guy to be sitting on the bench and getting 1 AB a game if that.

By: joedad

joedad — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 20:01:38 +0000

To further beat the dead horse, Rollins is 30 and has been on the DL once…once. So if you take his 9 year career, multiply by 162 games and 9 innings per game. Now take that number and divide it into the 1 time he was on the DL and you get 0.008% which is only slightly higher than the 0.00007% I used as an exaggeration. The chances of So Taguchi hitting the same home run at the end of the playoff game last year are higher than that.

By: j reed

j reed — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 19:03:21 +0000

What are the chances of a bench player pinch hitting a game winning homerun in the late innings of a NLCS game in the grand canyon known as Dodger Stadium?
Considering Rollins age, the demands of SS, the way he plays 6 days a week, I’d say Repeat! isn’t that far of the mark relative to the probability of what Stairs did last year….

By: Repeat!

Repeat! — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 18:48:18 +0000

And Cholly is just smart enough to increase the likely hood of that happening to well over .000007%……..

By: Repeat!

Repeat! — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 18:44:49 +0000

Thank you? I’ll drop it …. but if it happens… I’ll be back to rub it in….

By: Chuck

Chuck — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 18:40:31 +0000

^^ Oh, and by the way the “collection of bench players” you mention isn’t exactly chopped liver, either..

By: Chuck

Chuck — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 18:38:33 +0000

THANK YOU!!!!, joedad. It constantly amazes me how some people “worry” and “ponder” about things that PROBABLY won’t happen anyway.

By: Repeat!

Repeat! — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 18:38:15 +0000

I should not have said that about the goat…..Although I hear it’s not a bad fill in during a dry spell…..If Stairs ain’t hitting, then what’s his value? Zero obviously. And any chance greater than 0 is the same as a 100% chance come October… We won the WS last year, but this still Philadelphia…..

By: joedad

joedad — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 18:29:52 +0000

I was kidding about Bourne. Phils have Bruntlett and Dobbs in the infield, Francisco and Stairs in the outfield and Bako as catcher. Not the greatest collection of bench players but there is a reason certain players are not everyday players.

You don’t change substitution patterns in the playoffs just to play it safe in case someone might get hurt later in the game. That’s just silly. Let’s say we are in the 7th inning and Bako gets a single with 2 outs and we are down by a run. You pinch run with Bruntlett there and you don’t concern yourself with the 0.00007% chance that Rollins pulls a hammy the next inning. You play to win the game.

By: j reed

j reed — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 18:27:35 +0000

Word is Garland is a back-up in case Kuroda suffers any latent side effects from that horrific head shot he took.

Not suring up the bull pen or the bench because there’s no more money? Umm, did the owners give themselves Enron raises? I’m not buying it. Now we have 3 question marks

Lidge, Madson and rest of the bullpen not named Chan Ho
Hamels
The bench

By: Repeat!

Repeat! — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 18:19:56 +0000

you laugh joedad…. but the above situation can happen very easily….Most teams have more than 1 utility infielder.. and if it does happen and it costs us a playoff game…you surely won’t be laughing then…leave the baseball talk to the intelligent humans….go *uck a goat….. This comment will be deleted for sure…but not before you read it joedad…

By: Chuck

Chuck — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 18:19:25 +0000

Michael Bourne is no longer JUST a pinch runner…..he has had a very nice season with the Astros…..489 ABs/.292 avg. Not bad for a guy that was just a pinch runner when he was here.

By: Chuck

Chuck — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 18:15:12 +0000

I know that Cairo can’t play short….but the question was , What if Bruntlett pinch hits and then J-Roll gets hurt? Who then plays short?

That’s why you can’t discount Bruntlett’s role…..he can play many different positions….fairly well.

By: joedad

joedad — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 18:10:44 +0000

“But what happpens if he’s used as a pinch runner and then J-Roll gets hurt. Who fills in at SS?”

O no, why didn’t they reacquire Michael Bourne to use as a pinch runner so that we can keep Bruntlett on the bench in case Jimmy gets hurt. What were they thinking? We are doomed…doomed i tells ya.

By: The Original Chuck P

The Original Chuck P — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 18:02:55 +0000

I with most of you on Mayberry- he needs a lot of work and there wouldn’t be much benefit to this team in bringing him up HOWEVER, I don’t see any harm, either and it might help us assess the rest of the farm. If you bring him up and he stinks, so what? If you bring him up and he does well, that’s great… It would allow us to get a better look at other guys in the system and help them progress (move some of our A-AA prospects up a notch or two… ahem, Domonic Brown).

Does anyone know anything about Neil Sellers (AA 3B)? It looks like he’s having a pretty nice year for Reading.

By: Ben

Ben — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 17:59:34 +0000

cairo can’t play short, thats why he was sent down and they kept bruntlett.

By: Repeat!

Repeat! — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 17:59:16 +0000

You’re right Chuck… That’s why I want to make sure all of our bases are covered come October?… None of us want the Phillies to pull an Andy Reid by allowing such an obvious potential defensive diaster go uncorrected.

By: Repeat!

Repeat! — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 17:52:44 +0000

Thome’s Homies….clap clap clap….Thome’s Homies…..