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NLCS Preview: Offense

Posted by Pat Gallen, Thu, October 15, 2009 07:55 AM | Comments: 25
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It’s déjà vu all over again, with the Phillies and Dodgers getting together in the National League Championship series.  Each team got here in a different way – the Phillies series was tough-it-out four gamer, while the Dodgers ran through the Cards in three games – but one thing is for sure, both offenses are revved up right now.

Here is a sneak peek at the series with a positional breakdown on offense:

Catcher:

Carlos Ruiz has never been known to be one with the stick, but he’s changing his M.O. here in the postseason.  “Chooch” put together a healthy .308/.400/.308 stat line for the Rockies series, driving in three runs.  Two of those came in the ridiculously drawn out Game 3 win, a sign that yes, the bottom of the order can produce big hits. In his career against the Dodgers, his OPS is 1.132, and in the playoffs last year he hit .313 in the NLCS, without a strikeout.

The Dodgers have a stellar backstop themselves in Russell Martin. However, this has been a trying year offensively for him, as he finished with a .250 average after three straight seasons above .280.  In the NLDS against St. Louis, Martin went just 1-for-13, a sure sign that Joe Torre overused his catcher for the past two seasons.

Normally, in a healthy year, the edge would certainly be in Martin’s favor.  But Ruiz has proven himself to be a clutch performer as of late, while Martin is struggling mightily at the dish.

SLIGHT EDGE: Phillies

First Base:

Right off the bat, this would seemingly be a lopsided position.  And not that it isn’t, however, Dodgers first baseman James Loney deserves some credit.  He is not a power hitter, but is a professional who knows how to drive in runs (90 the past two seasons) – perhaps a testament to his work with batting coach Don Mattingly. Last year’s LCS was a coming out party for Loney, who hit .438 in the five-game series.

Still, it’s all about Ryan Howard, Mr. Rocktober. Howard pounded the Rockies into submission in round one, driving in six runs while hitting a robust .375. He did so without a single long ball, too.

MAJOR EDGE: Phillies

Second Base:

This one isn’t even close. Chase Utley is the premier second baseman in the league and backed that up against Colorado with a .429 average, and a silly OPS of 1.198. There was some worry about Utley coming into the playoffs worn down, but he has quelled those thoughts with a sick stat line. On top of that, Utley hammered the Dodgers in last year’s LCS, putting together a .353/.522/.647 line.  Yikes.

On the other side, the Dodgers have been going with Ronnie Belliard since he was brought over from the Nationals in late August, instead of the incumbent Orlando Hudson.  He was superb in the regular season, hitting .351 for L.A., and is at .273 in the postseason. That’s nice and all, but this one is a no-brainer.

MAJOR EDGE: Phillies

Third Base:

The Dodgers get the nod on this one.  Lately, Pedro Feliz has looked overmatched and possibly worn down after a long season.  His defense has not wavered, but he looks to be swinging a wiffle bat up there.  Pete hit .214 in the opening series, but it looked much worse, as he continually swung at pitches early in the count.  He saw, on average, just 2.84 pitches per plate appearance against the Rox.

Casey Blake plays the hot corner for the Dodgers, and while his best days are behind him, he is known for his professional approach and leadership qualities.  He hit .273 in the divisional series and .280 in the regular season.  In the playoffs, he’s seeing 4.5 pitches/PA, which kills opposing hurlers.

EDGE: Dodgers

Shortstop:

Looking at the names head-to-head would seemingly make this match up a laugher.  However, it’s no longer that way as Jimmy Rollins has been unable to find a sustained groove for quite a while.  Rollins is hitting .263 in the playoffs, but has just one extra-base hit, no steals, and has whiffed five times, a team high. In ’08, Rollins was awful against L.A., sporting a .217 OBP in the five games.

On the other hand, Rafael Furcal is smoking hot right now.  He finished off the regular season by raising his average 15 points in just 13 games, a tough feat late in the year.  He then hit .500 against the Cardinals in the sweep.  He is a leadoff buzzsaw right now, so Phillies pitchers beware.

As much as it pains me, I have to give the edge to the hotter hitter, and presently, that’s Furcal.

SLIGHT EDGE: Dodgers

Outfield:

This one, too,  is very close.  The Dodgers most potent hitters reside in the outfield, with of course, Manny Ramirez still hanging around. But he’s no longer the focal point. Rather, that belongs to the two men to his left, Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier.

Ethier and Kemp combined to knock in 207 runs, taking the reigns when Ramirez was suspended.  Ethier had a superb NLDS against the Cardinals as well, going 6-for-12 with two homers and three batted in.  Kemp struggled a bit, but Manny is still being Manny, as he went 4-for-13 with two doubles.  In last year’s playoff series, Kemp was a nuisance, reaching base over 47 percent of his plate appearances, while Manny torched everything in site, hitting .533 against the Phillies in the NLCS.

Here in Philly, our outfield is just as potent.  Jayson Werth went .357 in the Rockies series, with an absurd OPS of 1.429.  He’s mashing right now.  Raul Ibanez and Shane Victorino were also very good in round one, both hitting over .300.  Werth struggled in the 2008 LCS, striking out seven times in 22 at-bats against the boys in blue.

I have a feeling it’s going to come down to which group performs better in this seven-game series.

SLIGHT EDGE: PHILLIES

OVERALL – EDGE: PHILLIES

 
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  • Posts: 0 Papa Thompson

    I thought Torrealba was Mr. Rocktober.

     
  • Posts: 0 Jewtalian

    Pat,
    Extremely well-written article. I agree with almost all match-ups minus the outfield…I gave the very, very slight edge to the Dodgers. Still, this should make for one hell of a series. I’m a life-long Phils Phan and really hope that they pull this one out. I’d also say that the defense is as close as it can get to a complete wash-out. We definitely take the Dodgers in terms of starters, but they definitely have the bullpen advantage.
    What are your thoughts on coaching/management staff?

    And I have my fingers crossed for a Phillies/Angels world series. Anything to crush the hopes of the broadcasting stooges over at FOX and TBS.

     
  • Posts: 0 Big Daddy

    Pat

    Agree with your match-ups except at SS. JRoll saves more runs than Fucal can ever dream of saving. EDGE PHILS

     
  • Posts: 0 Pat Gallen

    Big daddy I didn’t include D because it would had been too long but your right rollins is superior with the glove

     
  • Posts: 0 Manny

    Pat, great article… seems very well balanced and objective.

     
  • Posts: 0 bfo_33

    This has the look of an epic series (Astros-Phils of 80?) – games decided in late/extra innings very close match. Not just being an optimistic phan, I think the starting pitching of LA is going to tear into the bullpen early and often – split the first 4, then LA bullpen folds. I also think Lee and Hamels will neutralize the lefties more so than Kershaw and Wolf. I would be very surprised to see Padilla go 4 innings, although he has a history of screwing the Phils.

    I think Charlie and Torre are the same – more clubhouse than field managers, but with a great group of coaches (somebody is going to snatch Lopes for a mgr role, hope we can hold onto him for another year).

    I’d love to see the Phils win it in Philly, but think it will go 6.

    I think the Yanks and Angels line up very well also, think it will come down to home cooking. Don’t see either team winning a game on the road. Yanks in 7.

     
  • Posts: 0 jbp

    Pat,

    Agree with your analysis but I would like to mention a pet peeve of mine that, strangely, no one that I know of shares: comparing defensive positions while talking about batting. That’s a weird way to say it so let me try to explain…

    It drives me nuts when someone says something like “Chase Utley is the best 2nd baseman in the league because he has a high OPS against both righties and lefties…” Shouldn’t Chase Utley be compared to other 3-hitters? How does he rank as a 3-hitter? Or, if you want to be more general about it, how does he rank as a middle-lineup hitter? Not to pick on Chase because I think he’s very good but I think he’s a little overrated because people say “he’s the best 2nd baseman in the league!” when, as a 3-hitter, he’s probably around tenth or so.

    Anyway, I’m at work and shouldn’t really be posting so I’ll leave it at that but I just want to say 1) I’m not criticizing your analysis…I think you did a good job 2) I’m really trying to figure out why I don’t see more “1-hitter vs. 1-hitter, etc.” analysis and everyone seems to just bin players in their defensive roles. What am I not getting?

     
  • Posts: 0 skeurton

    great article, pat. any chance of a follow-up article comparing the bats off the bench? i think this will play a huge role offensively speaking, just as much as the starting lineups. just curious what your thoughts are on this.

     
  • Posts: 0 Phil

    I agree with all of the match ups besides OF. Dodgers have an edge, not a slight edge, a full edge. Werth is the only player better than his counterpart, and that is only by a slight edge. Manny has a slight edge on Ibanez and Kemp has a major edge on Victorino.

     
  • Posts: 0 joedad

    Manny is terrible defensively and his power numbers are down this year. Hmmm, I wonder why. Manny is slightly better offensively but is a huge defensive liability. I’d give the slight edge to Raul.

    Phil, I don’t agree Kemp has a major edge on Victorino. Kemp has better power numbers and but his OPS is only 40 points higher. Both are relatively equal on the basepaths and Vic is probably slightly better defensively. Overall a slight edge to Kemp.

     
  • Posts: 0 Manny

    Remember guys this post is only about offense.

     
  • Posts: 1376 Pat Gallen

    I would have liked to put defense in, but it’s already long to begin with. It definitely changes things when you add that.

     
  • Posts: 0 WTF?

    What no mention of the dirt bags from McFaddens that are facing murder charges? One is even facing 1st degree murder. What a bunch of hot head losers!

     
  • Posts: 0 The Original Chuck P

    I’m with you, jbp…. kind of. I think that it’s only fair to compare “Chase Utley” as a player to other second basemen because that’s what he plays. But when you’re comparing teams, it’s better to compare lineups, at least for offensive purposes… here’s how I see it (offense):

    Rollins/Furcal – Furcal (by a hair)
    Vic/Kemp – Kemp (by a fair amount)
    Utley/Ethier – Utley (by a hair… Ethier is pretty damn good)
    Howard/Manny – Howard (by a hair)
    Ibanez/Loney – Ibanez (by a fair amount)
    Werth/Blake – Werth (by a fair amount)
    Feliz/Belliard – Belliard (by a fair amount)
    Chooch/Martin – Chooch (by a hair)

    So we have a clear advantage in the heart of our lineup… they are better at the top. It’s close… we’re a better power team but they’re good at finding ways to get the guys at the top of their order on base. If you can somehow control Furcal and Kemp, you can control this lineup (they’re not a great power hitting team – Loney in the 5 hole has fewer than 20 HR’s).

    Defensively, both teams are pretty good but we’re definitely better at these positions: 2B, SS, 3B, C and RF. We’re equal in CF and LF. I’ll give them 1B… that’s it.

    They have a clear bullpen and bench advantage…

    We are a better team on the basepaths…

    Their manager is better but we have a better home field advantage…

    Our starting rotation is better… wild cards being Hamels and Kuroda.

    At the end of the day, we’re a better team on paper but they have some advantages in areas that have been known to affect the outcome of a series. If Hamels comes out and wins game one, that is a huge tone setter because the rest of our rotation is SURELY better.

     
  • Posts: 0 Philly Geoff

    Utley is the 10th best number 3 hitter in the NL or MLB?

     
  • Posts: 0 beta sigma shag

    i have a strange request, I have 4 tickets to game 4 at the bank. I have two tickets in sec.242 and 2 tickets in 331. I live in Vermont and split the sunday package with my sister who lives outside of philly. And I was wondering if any on here would trade two tickets in either section for 2 tickets in the other. In other words I would four tickets in either 331 or 242. So if anyone wants to swap seats e mail me shagmec13@msn.com

     
  • Posts: 0 jbp

    @Philly Geoff

    I was thinking MLB but, admittedly, I was just throwing it out there. Maybe he’s better than that…I’ll have to dig some.

    @The Original Chuck P

    Thanks for at least kind of agreeing with me! I really want to discuss this “pet peeve” of mine but I don’t want to hijack the comments. Thanks for your thoughts.

     
  • The outfield the closet I think. I got a pretty nice comparison on my site if anyone wants to take a peek.

    LET’S GO FIGHTIN’S!

     
  • Posts: 0 Bob Kahn

    jbp –

    Your suggestion is excellent! It makes so much more sense. Batters should compare to batters, not fielders! It is not conventional, just better! Congrats – we need to spread this around.

     
  • Posts: 0 Table

    LOL you wish the Phillies had a better outfield.

    Would any of you honestly take the Phillie’s three over the Dodger’s three if you could swap them? I don’t think so.

     
  • Posts: 0 SDO

    I would. Manny is a liability out there. Maybe it’s those feminine hips he’s been trying to develop.

     
  • Posts: 0 Table

    Also, the Phillies superior power is not as great as it would seem. How many more homers would the Dodgers hit playing in that park? I would guess 20% more at least.

     
  • Posts: 0 Don M

    Dodgers fans like the Dogers’ players, and should swoon over them on Dodgers’ websites …

    Victorino, Werth, Ibanez is a great outfield.. and those three guys fit perfectly into our lineup

    Manny is a nightmare in the OF .. Kemp is a great player.. MVP in the waiting.. and Ethier is a very good player, although I think Werth is better

    Manny is a .270 hitter who plays crappy defense since he got busted for steriods.. . and he’ll look lost out there tonight when our guys are shooting extra-base hits in the LF corner!

     
  • Posts: 0 Chuck

    He’ll look lost as well as he’s chasing down a hit in the gap and tripping over his dreadlocks…

     
  • Posts: 0 Jacob

    On Around the Horn on espn, bill plashke (LA Times), Woody Paige and Jackie McMullen were all saying how the dodgers are great, their bullpen, their left handed pitching all saying how phils will lose, how dodgers have better swagger and chemistry. Bill as a biased LA fan, started saying this series is over even before they started the NLCS topic! wow, u don’t see philly writers doing that instead they say phils have a good chance to lose. underdogs like always. media is media and stats are stats

     
 
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