Original Chuck P – I agree with you whole heartily. Ryan Howard was often unappreciated because of his strikeouts, especially combined with last year’s low BA, until September ’08 when he was a machine at the plate. He has continue improving this year by watching his health and lowering his weight while not affecting his power, better defense, and more base stealing. Howard has had four seasons with 45+ home runs and 130+ RBIs. Only two other players in baseball history have hit 130 RBIs and 45 home runs in four consecutive seasons and Howard Ryan is one of them. The other two are Ken Griffey Jr. and Babe Ruth. The Babe did it six consecutive seasons and had a godlike OBP. But the movement has been growing towards the realization that Howard is a rare individual who can carry our team to victory with one swipe of his bat.

I watch the Phillies the same way you watch the Phillies. I’m up with every base-hit and groan every time they can’t get a guy in from third with less than two outs.

But when analyzing baseball, I use stats. Period. Numbers tell stories, and unless they are swayed by a biased person, they rarely lie. I would prefer to prove the point I am making rather than base the topic on my opinion alone, because why would I want to be like the other 100,000 writers that wrote the same end-of-year analysis for the Phillies?

Would you prefer to find the exact same content here that you would find at any other Phillies site or newspaper? In this case, I found a distinct difference between what the Phillies hitters earned this year and how much they were worth.

The main thing to take away from this article is that the Phillies had an amazing offensive season in 2009, and 1-8, everybody contributed significantly. The financial aspect of this was secondary. It was used to display an understandable comparison to WAR, and how every Phillie produced more runs than expected.

In the case of a guy like Ruiz, it was fascinating. In the case of guys like Werth and Victorino who are making chicken-scratch compared to players of their caliber, the value is unbelievable.

If its between writing the typical “Phillies are good, two MVP’s and a future MVP, bla bla bla” article, and actually PROVING the point I’m trying to make, I’ll prove it every time. It’s easy to disagree with opinions or homer-ism. It’s hard to disagree with facts.

I’m not trying to be condescending, but I don’t know how many times I must insist that fielding is one of many components of WAR.

Also, as I’ve stated NUMEROUS times in the article and in the comments section, the $34.2 million that Utley is worth DOES NOT MEAN HE WILL REALISTICALLY GET THAT IN THE FREE AGENT MARKET. As Joedad just said, the $’s of WAR is slightly skewed. But the WAR itself, is not.

The dollar value is based on the fact that, from 2006-2008, inflation of contracts included, every free agent contract has shown that 1 Win Above Replacement = $4.5M.

Things like “clutch hitting” and striking out a key player in a key situation aren’t quantifiable. How would you define clutch, George? I’m curious?

Because odds are, your definition is different than Joedad’s definition, my definition, Amanda Orr’s definition, Mitch Williams’ definition, etc.

If a player hits a game-winning homer in the ninth inning of Game 1 of the NLDS and then goes 0-8 through the rest of the series with runners in scoring position, is he “clutch?”

Clutch is a cute little term that offers VERY little meaning, because its based on YOUR PERCEPTION OF A PLAYER.

Also, I really think you’re misunderstanding what “replacement player” means, which I don’t get, because everybody else seems to grasp the concept pretty well.

Just so you get it a little better, let me give you examples of 2009 players who offered replacement value:

Alex Rios was a replacement player, based on his .247/.296/.395 season while playing average defense in left field.

Edgar Renteria was a replacement player, so was Daniel Murphy, so were Kaz Matsui and Garret Anderson. All four of these players either had a NEGATIVE WAR, meaning that they COST their team wins based on not getting on base or hitting enough extra-base hits, and playing poor defense. Hell, maybe even failing to get one of your fabled “clutch” hits.

Now let me ask you, would Kaz Matsui be a suitable replacement for Utley? Would you balk at that? Kaz Matsui = Tadahito Iguchi.

Do you understand what a replacement player is now? Do you understand why WAR explains a player’s value fully and completely? And shows that if Utley were replaced by Bruntlett, Cairo, Giles, or a guy like Matsui/Iguchi (in any season other than his less-than-half-year small sample size with the Phillies)the Phillies would have 7-8 fewer wins?

Once again, I apologize if this was condescending because my intention isn’t to offend anybody, but I fail to see your argument.

I suppose you have sat in on recent contract negotiations, and so you know how much W.A.R figures in.

As far as Iguchi’s numbers are concerned, he had a career couple of months when with the Phils; had the front office gone strictly by W.A.R. they would have missed out on a man who actually did do a better than average job as a “replacement.”

And with Marcus Giles, he was washed up and never made it out of Spring Training, so his alleged numbers are totally irrelevant.

If you want a true replacement value, you can’t supply the names of AAA level players, washed up veterans, or emergency call-ups. Even though clubs can’t replace entire rosters with the very best, they usually try to find those who can perform somewhat better than little leaguers. As far as the Mets not trading for anyone, I believe there were several affordable first basemen available after Delgado went down. They just chose not to trade, and used a platoon–or maybe it was an entire regiment–of second rate players, instead.

W.A.R. also does not fully state a player’s true value. How many times does an over-the-hill bench warmer hit a world series home run? How many times does a highly paid veteran slump in the big series? You can’t just say that the Phils would have won eight more games with Utley instead of Giles.

It’s likely front offices utilize W.A.R. to some extent, but there are many other factors involved, I’m sure. You have to look at things like clutch hitting, striking out a player in a key situation, turning the double play.

If W.A.R. really reflected a player’s worth, no one could afford to run a baseball team.

Those 10 players were worth $92.5M after the WAR conversion, with Hanley being worth 33.4M himself. Guys like Maybin and Hermida had down years, Bonifacio had NEGATIVE value because of a terrible OBP and bad defense, and Cantu’s difference was almost as insignificant as that of Pedro Feliz.

The $72M difference in those 10 hitters was still 13 million less than the Phillies, and once again, this article focused solely on offense. Pitching staffs were not included.

There’s no way Lidge even came close to outperforming his 11.5 million dollar salary, so how could “literally every Phillie” have outperformed his salary?