Cheap Starters on the Market
Posted by Pat Gallen, Tue, November 10, 2009 02:23 PM | Comments: 98
Analysis, News, Opinion, Posts
Phillies Nation has been abuzz with the recent news that Roy Halladay will be on the block this offseason. The Toronto Blue Jays are basically throwing in the towel and will attempt to get as much as possible out of the 33-year old righty. Good move. J.P. Ricciardi should have done the right thing at the ’09 deadline – deal him to a contender and get multiple pieces in return. He did not, then was promptly canned. Bad move.
If the Phillies are indeed in on the Halladay sweepstakes, the bounty will be large. Toronto will not want as much as last season, but it will still cost highly touted prospects. You’d better believe J.A. Happ would be involved, along with Michael Taylor or Dominic Brown.
Should the Phillies be willing to give up a pitcher, who at the very least, is capable of being a number three? On top of that, Jayson Werth is getting more expensive and Raul Ibanez is getting older, so Brown and Taylor have spots possibly waiting for them in the near future.
Halladay would be expensive to sign long term, plus, the Phillies are already dealing with a similar scenario in Cliff Lee. They wouldn’t have the cash to keep both – they may not be able to keep even one of the two should it come down to that.
There are some other decent options available.
Rich Harden has been unable to stay healthy, but he has the tools to be a number two in the rotation. He pitched for the Cubs in 2009, going 9-9 with a 4.09 ERA. However, he struck out 171 batters in just 141 innings, proving he still has the stuff to help carry an entire staff. He may cost between $6-8 million in one year deal, but perhaps the thought of pitching for an NL contender would bring him here on a more incentive laden deal. If Harden cannot stay healthy as part of the rotation, he is a great option out of the bullpen one inning at a time.
Erik Bedard is in a similar situation as Harden. Oft-injured, but someone with quality pitches that will garner some looks on the open market. Bedard flopped in Seattle, but also is a prime candidate for an incentive-drive contract for one year to try and up his value for future seasons. Bedard is only 31, too, so he still should have plenty left in the tank.
Ben Sheets was not heard from in 2009, sitting the season out after rehabbing a torn flexor tendon. He is the biggest injury risk on the market, but his game is quite enticing. He also is 31 years old, plus has one of the best repertoires in the league. Sheets could be somewhat cheaper than the other two listed.
Other cheap options that the Phils could examine are Jarrod Washburn, Noah Lowry, Rich Hill, and how about John Smoltz?
Is there anyone you want to see in red pinstripes?
Posts: 0 Geoff
What about RH trade candidates other than Halladay?
Posted: 02:29 PM on November 10, 2009
Posts: 0 Geoff
And, if you watched the WS, most of their pitching got lit up, so they need help in starting and relief….
Posted: 02:34 PM on November 10, 2009
Posts: 0 Petey Pablo
There is no reason to sign someone like Harden, Bedard or Washburn. The price will be too high for what you get relative to what we already have. The only new SP I want to see is Halladay. No reason not to go all-in; come 2011 this team is going to look a lot different, and there’s no way that Howard, Werth, Vic, Rollins and Hamels will all be here.
Since Antropolous has basically come out and said the price will be lower than what Ricciardi wanted, offer them Happ, Brown (Taylor can be 4th OF next year so I’d rather not trade him), and some kind of throw-in and see what Toronto says. Lee/Halladay/Hamels/Blanton and one of Moyer/KK/Drabek sounds like the best rotation in the NL (and maybe baseball) to me.
Posted: 02:40 PM on November 10, 2009
Posts: 0 steve-o
I’m mainly in agreement with Petey Pablo. Mostly on the fact that 2010 is an “all-in” type year. Rollins is on the downslide, and is potentially in his last year with the phils. Howard has 2 left, as does Ibanez. Werth is a free agent after this year. The Phillies have 2010 to go for it again, and Halladay is the piece that can do that for them. The problem of course is obviously 2011 and beyond. It’s what makes me glad i’m not a GM.
Posted: 02:51 PM on November 10, 2009
Posts: 0 Michael N.
I’d give up Taylor first because well he’s ready right now and by the time Ibanez is done Brown would be ready if he stays on track. So i think a deal of lets say Taylor, Gose and Worley or Happ Would get it done.
Posted: 02:53 PM on November 10, 2009
Posts: 0 psujoe
The more I look at payroll the more obvious it becomes the staff will be Lee, Hamels, Blantan, Happ and Moyer/Kendrick/Drabek. Phils aren’t going to bump the payrol 15 million to swap Happ and Halladay. I wish they would, but I just don’t see it.
Posted: 03:08 PM on November 10, 2009
Posts: 0 Geoff
I see them trading Happ and maybe another prospect or two for a RH upgrade over Happ. Not really Halladay or someone that expensive, but someone solid. I cant think of a name yet though to match that type.
Posted: 03:10 PM on November 10, 2009
Posts: 1313 Pat Gallen
Wow, no one wants to bite on a guy who could potential turn this team around? I’d love Harden as the 5th guy at a cheap rate or Sheets too and hope they can return to form. The Phillies have some money to throw around here and they could be big time pieces.
As much as I would love Halladay, does it make sense financially? You have a guy in Happ that you have control over for a few more years that will give you good numbers and Taylor who should be a starter here after next season.
Halladay would be most likely, a one and done scenario. Plus, he doesnt guarantee you anything. You need to keep an eye on the future while your still winning.
Posted: 03:14 PM on November 10, 2009
Posts: 0 George
I don’t like any of the high risk/high reward pitchers out there. If anyone gets injured, they’re no longer bullpen options. Harden and Bedard are 6 inning pitchers, and that equals bullpen stress. There are better options, maybe not stuff-wise, but better health-wise.
I might go for Halliday with a Happ/Taylor/low level prospect offer. His salary is high, though, and it might cost in other areas. If he is 33, he’s not one you’d give a long term contract to, either. Two, maybe three years, tops. He’d probably be a one year acquisition, and therefore might not be worth what it would take to get him.
The Phils will have worries in 2011. But by then, Brown could likely replace Werth. If they keep Taylor, too, there’s no worry over Ibanez. It’s Rollins I’d be concerned about most, because he seems to be losing his hitting edge, some range, and some speed. There’s no telling what can happen with free agency, so every team has the same potential problems. At least the Phils have some prospects, and more money than many other teams. They should be able to field a good team in 2011, just not the same team.
Posted: 03:15 PM on November 10, 2009
Posts: 0 BS
@Michael: Taylor might be important depending on Werth’s price for 2011 and beyond. Remember, there’s no guarantee we’ll resign him. It won’t hurt Taylor to spend a full year down in AAA or split some time in the majors in case of an injury. I agree that Brown should be ready by the time Ibanez retires.
@ Petey 2010 isn’t an “all-in” year. We have Howard, Ibanez, Lidge, Madson signed until 2011. Rollins and Romero club option through 2011. Victorino arbitration through 2011. Hamels through 2012. Utley to 2013. Werth, Lee, and Blanton are no guarantee of course. But our team for the next 2 years will look pretty much like it does now. So we should be able to slot in Taylor, Brown and Drabek as necessary.
If Harden’s price is $6-8 mil, I’d definitely take a shot at him. That’s barely more than a full season of Pedro’s cost, and Harden’s stuff is arguably better than Cliff’s or Cole’s stuff. He’s always had his injury problems, but it’d be less of an issue if he missed 5 or 10 starts, since he’d just be a #3 for us.
I’m willing to wait to see how Hamels rebounds next year before making a move for Halliday. I’d imagine Ruben’s going to do the same.
Posted: 03:20 PM on November 10, 2009
Posts: 0 Al in Seattle
Ruben and Co. should stay far away from Wash and Bedard. Wash is a flyball machine and his inflated numbers in Seattle were caused by pitching in spacious Safeco Field and the M’s terrific outfield defense. Washburn would get lit up like New Years Eve at Times Square if he pitched at the bank. As for Bedard, he has outstanding stuff, but he is extremely fragile and not good in the clubhouse. I say the Phils should sign Sheets or Harden on an incentive laden deal if the price is right.
Posted: 03:27 PM on November 10, 2009
Posts: 0 BS
With that said, a Happ + OF deal for Halladay would be something I’d consider. But a 3 or 4 for 1 smorgasbord of top prospects and JA Happ is too much.
Posted: 03:27 PM on November 10, 2009
Posts: 0 Ed R.
I would love Harden and would take him in a heart beat but I think he will end up in Seattle.
Bedard is a jerk off from what I am told, I want nothing to do with him. Besides, they have enough LH pitchers.
Washburn was totally awful when he went to Detroit, not sure I would take a flyer on him.
Posted: 03:34 PM on November 10, 2009
Posts: 0 Don M
I don’t think Harden will come “cheap”
Somebody will give him solid guaranteed money,.. with incentive loaded bonuses at the end of it ..
RedSox will outbid anyone ..
Harden has some of the best “stuff” in baseball, but can’t seem to stay healthy.
…
…
The thing with Taylor, is that he has the higher-rated Domonic Brown right behind him, Brown came up and played well at AA-Reading last season . He hit .280 in 37 games at that level … figure by the end of this season, he’ll be in AAA …
So before the end of this season we’ll have Taylor and Brown both playing AAA ball.. Werth coming to the tail end of his current contract, and in line for a long-term deal, with some serious money coming his way
If he was a Free Agent this year.. I think he would be ranked behind Matt Holliday, but ahead of Jason Bay … Werth really is that good..
tough spot to be in, decision, but great problem to have for the organization
Posted: 03:35 PM on November 10, 2009
Posts: 0 Ed R.
I agree with you Don. I’d take Werth over Bay because he is a better fielder and can run the bases better. He also has more raw power and did lead the league in pitches per at bat.
Posted: 03:40 PM on November 10, 2009
Posts: 0 Ari
I would be wary of Harden, Smoltz, Lowry, and Hill. Not so much because of anything against them, but simply because the Phils have a plethora of number 3 type starters already (Pedro, Blanton, Moyer, Happ), plus Park who could be bumped up to starter in case of injury later in the season, and Myers who they apparently let walk. I certainly wouldn’t object to another stud like Halliday because that’s a clear upgrade, but we don’t need any more mid-level starters.
Posted: 03:46 PM on November 10, 2009
Posts: 0 joe
yeah there is someone i want to see in red pinstripes
Kyle Drabek
Posted: 03:47 PM on November 10, 2009
Posts: 0 Havoc
I really didn’t expect to be talking Halladay anymore, but here we go again huh?
If we can get a trade of Halladay for Happ, Taylor, & a young prospect I’d take it. Hell I’ll be first in line to get my Halladay jersey even if it ends up being a one year deal.
Assuming that payroll is a concern for the team, i’m guessing it’s unlikely we’ll go after him. I wouldn’t mind taking a shot at Sheets or Harden if you could get them to agree to an incentive laden deal. You’ll have decisions to make through spring training though unless Moyer retires.
Posted: 03:51 PM on November 10, 2009
Posts: 0 bfo_33
The staff as is is good enough to contend, should take the division, but it will have postseason issues. If…… you could get Harden on an incentive laden deal, he’d be worth it – fits the bill as a rhp with filthy stuff. Unfortunately, there are enough teams out there with sp needs that someone will overpay him. It all depends on whether he’ll take a chance by going to a winning team, or chase the $$ (and wind up Texas or Baltimore). I think Halladay will go much cheaper than last year (Happ, Taylor/Brown, + a low prospect), but still not worth a one year rental. If he’ll negotiate an extension, he’s the best bet. Harden 2nd choice. After that, I think we have better/cheaper internal options.
Posted: 04:00 PM on November 10, 2009
Posts: 0 Chuck
Thing is…..can Harden stay healthy enough for the Phils to even consider him as an option??….if so, then yeah….great..
That’s a big IF..
Posted: 04:00 PM on November 10, 2009
Posts: 0 dudley monk
Frankly, I like Brad Penney. He throws hard. Rich Harden is next in line. I do not like giving up several players for Roy Halladay, as he will be 33 and his cost will be huge. Perhaps I am cheap, or dumb, but that is how I feel, especially when giving up too much young talent.
Posted: 04:05 PM on November 10, 2009
Posts: 0 dudley monk
After some research, it appears that 140 innings is all you can expect from Rich Harden, even if he is healthy. Is that enough? I don’ know.
Posted: 04:12 PM on November 10, 2009
Posts: 0 j reed
Jason Bay is however a smarter ball player than Werth who has alot of Jeff Spicoli moments through out the season. That’s one of places the Yankees outshined us: smart baseball. That said, go for Halladay…if we think we are going to head back to the WS then get him because he owns both the Yankees and Red Sox who we would most likely see. I thought this line-up had turned a corner from the way they played in the NL pay-off series, but this WS proved me wrong…evil phillies showed up at the plate. Until this line-up gets more consistent I’d invest in RIGHT HANDED pitching. Halladay is that and yes one the best GROUND BALL pitchers in the league. My only concern is the groin pull he suffered last year….don’t want a Sports Hernia warm ing the bench next year. I could live with out Happ, I don’t think he is as good as his 2009 year suggests.
Posted: 04:16 PM on November 10, 2009
Posts: 0 j reed
Brad is a Bad Penny….Either we go quality upper escheolon guy or if we go mid level then he has to be a sinkerballer, GB pitcher and not left handed. The sinkerballers like Pinero are the Honda Accord, Toyota Camrys of pitching…nothing fancy but with a good infield will get the job done on the cheap unless your Halladay who happens to be the best in the business. He also comes with 3 other quality pitches. What did we learn from the Yankees…you need varierty to keep that line-up from hell off balance.
Posted: 04:25 PM on November 10, 2009
Posts: 0 j reed
I hope Pinero isn’t left handed…i didn’t check…DOH!
Posted: 04:26 PM on November 10, 2009
Posts: 0 Ed R.
Smarter is an understatement.
As for sports hernia, the best medicine for it is rest. Halladay has the next couple months off, he will be fine come next year. Plus, being a pitcher is not the absolute worst thing ever for a Sports Hernia. Now if you get a S.H and are a hockey player, forget it. Unless you rest for months, that S.H will never, ever go away.
Posted: 04:27 PM on November 10, 2009
Posts: 0 Ed R.
Pinero is a RH.
Posted: 04:28 PM on November 10, 2009
Posts: 0 Dan S
If they Phillies have to trade Michael Taylor or Domonic Brown they should trade Taylor. Taylor is closer to the big leagues and as of now the Phillies don’t need him with all-stars patrolling left, right, and center field. So if they have to choose between the two they should go with Taylor. Not to mention Domonic Brown is ranked higher in the Phillies’ prospects.
Posted: 04:32 PM on November 10, 2009
Posts: 0 Don M
Honestly.. I think Werth is one of the most heady players in baseball… multiple times throwing behind runners in tag-up situations
aggressive baserunning, delayed steals ..
he is a playmaker.. got picked off 1st base by a Catcher who made a great play, throwing a bullet behind the Left-Handed Ibanez (I think).. and caught Werth two steps off the bag
…
We can’t afford Joel Pinero .. or Eric Bedard.. or any other big name player you can think of ..
I heard Kelvim Escobar … think of a low risk-high reward player for who the Phillies will target. They don’t have the money to fool with any high-risk/high-reward guys like Harden or Sheets .. because if it backfires it kills you
Posted: 04:35 PM on November 10, 2009
Posts: 0 mick
Do not even think about trading Happ–he is young and only going to get better.Lee,a refreshed Hamels, Blanton and Happ will give the Phils all they need for starters. Bolster the bullpen a bit and let the world compete for the 5th spot and the Phillies will be back in the Oct. mix.Figgins on base percentage would sure look good at the top of the order
Posted: 04:42 PM on November 10, 2009
Posts: 0 Don M
basically we’re confusing the words “Smarter”
with “Slower” -and- “Less Aggressive”
Posted: 04:43 PM on November 10, 2009
Posts: 0 Georgie
Werth and Vic both have “Spicoli” moments, which they can get away with sometimes, but not in the playoffs. I am a defensive FREAK, I don’t expect major league players to make dumb mistakes, it really bugs me more than anything else.
Posted: 04:45 PM on November 10, 2009
Posts: 0 Phils fan in NYC
to the 3B issue… has anyone considered scott rolen for the spot? I know you guys threw batteries at him or something, but he’s the same vacuum at 3B that Feliz was with much better plate discipline. Maybe now that he doesn’t have to be the face and voice of the team, he could fit in a little better? I don’t know, you guys tell me… i didn’t live there when he was such a pain in the ass there.
Posted: 04:46 PM on November 10, 2009
Posts: 0 Don M
Figgins sucks in the playoffs so far in his career …
he’s a hell of a player, but i dont think we have $10 M per year for the next 5 years for another light-hitting, speed guy
how many of them do you need in a lineup?
…
I HIGHLY doubt that Halladay comes our way.. and I don’t think that a package of HAPP and TAYLOR is even anywhere near what it will cost to land him
BUT.. I would trade Happ without any hesitation, if the return is a Cy Young caliber pitcher .. cause i’m fairly certain that Happ ain’t winning more than Halladay for the remainder of their careers
Happ is a very good pitcher.. whose value is probably as high as it will ever be, and since the Top Prospect in our organization happens to be Kyle Drabek.. it’s not like your mortgaging the future if you move Happ for a win-now option
…
Lot of people thinking Moyer is finished.. Im pretty sure the Phillies will see what he’s got left in the tank, and count him as a possibility for their long-reliever/spot-starter out of the bullpen
Posted: 04:51 PM on November 10, 2009
Posts: 0 Don M
No chance Scott Rolen comes back here, none..
…
The batteries were thrown at J.D. Drew … I think they all missed him though
Posted: 04:53 PM on November 10, 2009
Posts: 0 Mike in 314
I disagree with trading for Halladay, especially if the reasoning is based on the fallacy of a “window of opportunity”. This isn’t a salary cap sport.
Short-term, the Phillies were the best team in the NL and quite capable of winning the World Series… and without ANY major moves, they will be next year, too.
Long-term, the Phillies have the core, the farm system, and the revenue stream to compete with anyone. The Red Sox and Cardinals were in similar situations in the first part of the decade, and they made judicious signings and decisions related to their core players, and a result, both won the World Series later in the decade and still field excellent teams now.
Halladay is a 1-year rental (even if they retain Halladay they lose Lee, or vice versa) at the expense of 2 starters (Brown/Taylor and Happ) who would cost next-to-nothing for the next few years, in the process enabling the Phillies to keep another core player.
In three years a rotation of Lee / Hamels / Drabek / Happ and an outfield of Brown / Werth / Taylor would put the Phillies in a financial position to keep the infield intact.
The focus this off-season should be on extending Lee and Werth, and bolstering the bullpen and bench.
Posted: 05:29 PM on November 10, 2009
Posts: 0 Don M
In 3 years.. you are going to have multiple players making $10, 15, 20 M per season
But the problem is.. if you wait and think that Drabek, Brown, Taylor are going to help win you titles
you are probably looking at a team that is without Jimmy Rollins (or at least without MVP type production from an aging Rollins) .. Ryan Howard and Cole Hamels looking to make $20 M per season
If you resign Cliff Lee that is going to cost at least $15 M per season..
Utley is already at $15 M and ain’t going to get any cheaper..
so the idea to WIN-NOW.. while you currently have the best Phillies roster in Phillies team history is a good one
…
I’m not saying to go all-in and go get Roy Halladay.. but if you need to trade more prospects to strenthen the core of your team, you can’t hesitate, because we aren’t going to stay on top forever
the Cardinals, Dodgers, and whoever else will be looking to improve this year too.. and Dodgers players like Kemp and Ethier will be rocking the All-Star and MVP votes soon, and will be able to carry their team in the coming years
Posted: 05:48 PM on November 10, 2009
Posts: 0 j reed
I agree with Don M. ….Hallady will pitch his ass of for us given a legit chance for a ring. Lee did and will again. A good chance we wil see the Yankees again and the last guy they want to see is good old Roy on the mound.
Mike 314 – I’ve never heard of a fallacy of the “window of opportunity”. It might seem shortsighted in a certain light but this isn’t a formal fallacy of reasoning I’m aware of
Posted: 06:06 PM on November 10, 2009
Posts: 0 hotstove
Sources tell me Figgins is almsot a Phillie, They are in negoations with Figgins on a 3 yr deal near 21million. IMO a good signing if they can get this.
Halladay is being courted by Mets, Redsox but Phillies are first choice.
Posted: 06:10 PM on November 10, 2009
Posts: 0 Joey B baby
hotstove, what’s your source for those? I heard that the phils were seriously considering figgins, but not with offers or anything. Same with the Doc stuff.
Posted: 06:14 PM on November 10, 2009
Posts: 0 j reed
YOU GO RAJ….Guess that loss left a bad Yankees taste in his mouth…
Posted: 06:17 PM on November 10, 2009
Posts: 0 Ed R.
3 years and 21 mil, not a chance that is legit. Especially given that guys can’t sign until the 15th.
Posted: 06:18 PM on November 10, 2009
Posts: 0 Geoff
Um, the Angels still have to decide whether or not to offer arbitration…..
Posted: 06:19 PM on November 10, 2009
Posts: 0 Geoff
Generally speaking, the Phillies can talk to FIggins generally, but not specifically until he gets arb offered and declines it.
Posted: 06:21 PM on November 10, 2009
Posts: 0 Ed R.
Pretty sure the Angels will offer arbitration. They would be pretty stupid not too.
Posted: 06:22 PM on November 10, 2009
Posts: 0 Mike in 314
Everyone uses the window of opportunity analogy such as what Don says above, whether it is in regards to aging players or financial resources.
Who is old on this team? Ibanez? That’s the point of not trading your top prospect (Brown) for Halladay. You insert Brown as your left-handed left-fielder, hope for average production, and then use the $10M you’re saving at that position elsewhere.
Rollins? I’m looking forward to an aging Jimmy Rollins. Then we can pay him his true value as a leader and a gold glove SS, not the $10+M for the torture of watching him lead-off.
And Howard? Is the $20M they have slated for him just going to disappear? No, as I said, the Phillies now have the resources to just go out and get another quality 1B. Will it be Ryan Howard production? No, but you can get a 30 HR/110 RBI 1B for a little over half of what Howard makes, and use the extra money elsewhere.
When you keep trading prospects you turn yourself into the Mets, where the only way you can improve is via free agency.
Had the Phillies done what everyone wanted them to do last year and trade for Halladay they would have had the same result, minus their best prospects.
Posted: 06:23 PM on November 10, 2009
Posts: 0 Geoff
It came from his A$$. Even if they had already done all that, the dollar figure is way off.
Posted: 06:23 PM on November 10, 2009
Posts: 0 j reed
Maybe he hates California….
Posted: 06:24 PM on November 10, 2009
Posts: 0 Ed R.
Very correct Jeff. Technically the Phillies can’t talk salary and contract length until the Angels decide to offer arbitration or not. But luckily for the Phillies, Figgins is a Type B.
Posted: 06:24 PM on November 10, 2009
Posts: 0 Ed R.
Sorry, that should read Geoff, not Jeff.
Posted: 06:28 PM on November 10, 2009