So, What Now?
Posted by Corey Seidman, Thu, December 17, 2009 12:18 AM | Comments: 152
Analysis, News, Opinion, Posts
How does it feel to know that for the next five years, Roy Halladay will be toeing the rubber for the Phillies every fifth day?
Let’s forget about the Cliff Lee trade. Erase it from your mind completely. From this point forward, let’s shift the focus to the splendor that is “Doc” Halladay in red pinstripes.
You deserve to feel good about that. You deserve to embrace the fact that the Phils just acquired a guy who had a 2.97 ERA in 112 innings last year against the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays, three of the top six offenses in baseball during that time.
In his career, Halladay is 18-6 against the Yankees with a 2.84 ERA and one complete game for every five starts. I wonder how he’ll fare against the Nationals.
For what it’s worth, Halladay is 17-8 with a 3.02 ERA against the National League in his career. I could throw any number at you and you’d love it. This is the kind of pitcher Harry Leroy Halladay is.
But, with the dust settled on this insane three-day stretch, the fact remains that Ruben Amaro still has some tinkering to do. Let’s take a look at who the Phillies have locked up (or have tendered a contract to and will either re-sign or go to arbitration with.)
Lineup
Jimmy Rollins
Shane Victorino
Chase Utley
Ryan Howard
Jayson Werth
Raul Ibanez
Placido Polanco
Carlos Ruiz
Now, Polanco and Victorino could very well switch positions in the order. The switch that would make the most sense (based on last year’s production) would be to lead Victorino off, bat Polanco second, and move Rollins down to the seven-hole. But if Jimmy gets off to a hot start, that obviously wouldn’t make the most sense. We’ll see what happens in April.
Bench
Greg Dobbs: LHB, 3B/1B/LF/RF
Ross Gload: LHB, 1B/LF/RF
Ben Francisco: RHB, LF/CF/RF
Brian Schneider: LHB, C
Juan Castro: RHB, SS/2B/3B/1B/LF/RF
The opening day bench will probably look like this. The Phillies won’t carry more than five bench bats, and the only one who isn’t a shoe-in to make the 25-man roster is Castro. If Wilson Valdez or Cody Ransom vastly outplay Castro in Spring Training, they could make the squad over him. But, given the fact that Castro signed a $750,000 with a team option for a second year while Ransom and Valdez were merely Spring Training invitees, the job is his to lose.
Starting Rotation
Roy Halladay: RHP (feels so cool to be able write that)
Cole Hamels: LHP
Joe Blanton: RHP
J.A. Happ: LHP
Jamie Moyer: LHP or Kyle Kendrick: RHP
If no starter is signed, Moyer and Kendrick will enter the 2010 season as the two candidates for the fifth starter’s job. One would have to imagine that Moyer has the advantage based on the fact that he is getting paid a hefty salary and he makes less sense out of the bullpen, despite a few good performances in relief last year.
Bullpen
Brad Lidge: RHP
Ryan Madson: RHP
J.C. Romero: LHP
Chad Durbin: RHP
Kendrick/Moyer
These five will definitely be in the bullpen to start the season. Durbin was tendered a contract last week and will likely receive a $2-2.5M contract any day now.
If you’ve done the math, you know that the names listed make up 23 of the 25 spots on the major league roster. If the Phils don’t make another move from now until April 5, the last two spots in the ‘pen would probably go to left-hander Antonio Bastardo and right-hander Scott Mathieson, an intriguing young reliever who has had two Tommy John surgeries that have derailed his promising career.
Mathieson went 4-0 with a 0.84 ERA in 2009, splitting time between Rookie League, High-A, and Double-A Reading. He struck out 34 batters in 32 innings and his WHIP was under 0.90.
Thus far in the Arizona Fall League, Mathieson has compiled a 2.84 ERA and 15 strikeouts in 12 2/3 innings. His eight walks are too many.
I highly doubt the Phillies enter the season with Kendrick/Moyer, Bastardo, and Mathieson making up the final three bullpen spots. They will sign a reliever or two before then.
Fernando Rodney
Todd Zolecki reports that the team’s top targets are former Tigers closer Fernando Rodney and future Hall-of-Famer John Smoltz.
Smoltz would be a very good one-year signing, but Rodney is a bad multi-year deal waiting to happen. Rodney saved 37 games for Detroit last year, but his walk rate (4.9/9 IP) was too high and his strikeout rate (7.3/9) was too low for a late-inning reliever. His WHIPs over the last two seasons have been below average, at 1.59 and 1.47.
Rodney’s most redeeming trait is that he’s an extreme ground ball pitcher. 58% of the balls hit in play against Rodney in 2009 were on the ground. In his career, the Dominican native has a 1.43 GB/FB ratio.
The ground balls would be nice, but Rodney is basically Chad Durbin in terms of strikeouts and J.C. Romero with walks (Romero’s career BB rate is 5.0/9, Rodney is 4.6/9.
I won’t be jumping for joy if the Phillies sign him to a two-year, $12M or a three-year/$15-16M contract. That is likely what he’ll command, since Mike Gonzalez, a similarly valued reliever, just signed for 2 years/$12M with the Orioles.
Smoltz
This would be a very good signing because Smoltz could start or relieve. He can be had for an incentive-laden one-year deal, and the Phillies could do exactly what they did with Chan Ho Park a season ago – offer Smoltz the chance to compete for the fifth starter’s job, and if he doesn’t pitch well from that role, move him to the bullpen.
At 43, Smoltz still has a powerful fastball that hovers around 91-92. He hit his spots well last year after returning to the NL, getting swings-and-misses on 31% of his pitches outside the strike zone (league average is 25%.)
His 8.4 strikeouts per nine innings were more than Rodney and his 2.1 BB/9 were significantly less.
Best Case Scenario
In my opinion, the best case scenario for the Phillies would be to sign Smoltz to a one-year deal, re-sign Chan Ho Park, and miss out on Rodney. A bullpen with Park, Smoltz, Madson, and Lidge as late-inning options and Romero as the situational lefty would be dynamic, as all four righties are strikeout pitchers.
There is no word on how much, if any, progress the Phils are making with Park, but it was made clear several weeks ago that he, once again, believes he can start. If this is so, expect teams to do exactly what the Phils did last year – promise him a job starting and move him to the pen if he is ineffective.
You’d think that at this point in his career it would be pretty evident to Park that relieving is the best option for him, but he obviously doesn’t agree with that sentiment.
(Since I’m figuring some of you will ask about Matt Capps and/or Scott Eyre in the comments section, I can tell you that many other teams are more interested in Capps than the Phillies appear to be, and the last time Ruben Amaro mentioned Eyre, it was to say that he was “pricing himself out of the Phillies range.)
Money
Financially, the Phillies are in the same position they were in before the Halladay deal. By trading Lee and his $9M salary, and receiving $6M along with Halladay, the $15.75M Doc is due in 2010 didn’t hamper the Phillies at all. The deals were a wash, financially.
So, how about they invest a little bit of money in a low-risk, high-reward deal for Smoltz, and do whatever they can to re-sign Park?
What do you think?
Posts: 0 psujoe
Griffen, the Phillies got Lee for much less and he was “being shopped”. Why couldn’t Cleveland get more for him either?
WHo would you have expected for Lee? Teams like the Angels weren’t even willing to give up Reckling for Halladay let alone Lee.
Posted: 02:19 PM on December 17, 2009
Posts: 0 Jack Glacken
I am baffled by this trade. Of course, I’m thrilled to get Halladay but take D’rnaud and the 3 low level prospects we received for Lee out of the equation, we basically gave up Marson, Donald, Carrasco, Knapp, Drabek, and Taylor for him. That’s 6 excellent prospects! We couldn’t do better last year?
What happened with the negotiations with Lee? Did Amaro get his back up? I guess the Lee trade was too good to be true because we paid way more than we had to. We just should have bit the bullet last year. We’d still have some of those guys.
Posted: 02:22 PM on December 17, 2009
Posts: 0 Griffin
psujoe, if you can’t get anything of value for Lee, then why trade him? Just non-tender Blanton to save the money and have Lee and Halladay for this year.
This idea that they HAD to trade Lee is completely false. If this was the best that they could get for Lee, then keep him, let him sign elsewhere in the offseason and enjoy the two draft picks.
Posted: 02:23 PM on December 17, 2009
Posts: 0 Geoff
because they openly said that they wanted to recoup the prospects and at least absorb the blow of the Roy trade SOMEWHAT…
Posted: 02:27 PM on December 17, 2009
Posts: 0 Griffin
Geoff, if these prospects recouped some of the lost value then I would agree. But everything you read about these prospects is not flattering.
The 2 pitchers project as relievers and Tyson Gilles doesn’t have enough power to play everyday in the majors.
Meanwhile Michael Taylor and Kyle Drabek will be major league ready in 2010.
If the idea was for the Phils to win this year, then keep Lee. If the idea was to keep the farm system intact for the future, then keep Lee and sign either Lee or Halladay next year. Instead Amaro gutted the system and got very little value for Lee.
The upgrade from Lee to Halladay is worth a win or 2. Upgrading from Moyer (the presumed 5th starter) to Lee would be worth about 6 wins.
Posted: 02:32 PM on December 17, 2009
Posts: 0 Chuck
“Well theyd better make sure they have someone to protect Howard id they do let Werth walk, which is likely…and right now there is no one in their system that can do that.”
…That’s exactly why Jayson Werth WON’T be traded or allowed to walk…because there is no one in their system that has the ability to protect Ryan Howard they way he does….not to mention his versatility in the outfield…and his speed..
Posted: 02:36 PM on December 17, 2009
Posts: 0 Keith
I’d like to see us add Pedro, Smoltz, and another RP. :)
Posted: 02:38 PM on December 17, 2009
Posts: 0 Mazinman
At this point I don’t think Lee would be the key to getting back into the series. I think the rotation we got without him is good enough to get the job done (assuming that Hamels bounces back). The key right now is the bullpen. If not keeping Lee frees up money to improve the bullpen then trading him was the right choice.
I like the idea of Smoltz in the bullpen. I would love Park to come back but, at this point, its up to him. I also like the idea of giving Wang from the Yankees a look if he recovers completely.
Posted: 02:38 PM on December 17, 2009
Posts: 0 Griffin
Chuck, we all agree that Werth is extremely valuable and should not be allowed to leave.
Now please tell me how a cash-strapped team is going to afford a player who should be asking for at least $12 mil per year?
Posted: 02:39 PM on December 17, 2009
Posts: 0 Jesus
The idea is to win now and continue to win. We weren’t going to win a bidding war for Lee or Halladay after the season and I’m sure we can all go back and find bad things written about a lot of today’s top players when they were prospects. I trust the front office and believe that they did their homework on these players especially when we have a few guys that are working for the Phils now that were with the M’s when these players were drafted. If I recall that’s why we got Werth and Dobbs because of Gillick’s history and knowledge of these players. Have some faith that the front office that has made the Phils a constant contender know what they are doing. It sucks that we don’t have Lee here but they got what they could for him.
Posted: 02:44 PM on December 17, 2009
Posts: 0 NEPA
For those who say forget about Lee,this underscores the idea that we should blindly accept the dumb move that was just made.
Hey,were just having fun talking about it on a cold winter day.
But it still makes no sense.
Posted: 02:46 PM on December 17, 2009
Posts: 0 Griffin
My sentiments exactly, NEPA.
Posted: 02:47 PM on December 17, 2009
Posts: 0 j reed
I’m sure Cleveland fans consoled themselves the same way esp as they watched Lee in the the WS and have visions of Carlos Carasco dance in their head. I see it like this:
The only way to have kept Lee’s value at it’s highest is not to have impopsed a budget cap on yourself. But everyone knows the Phiillies mean it when they say budget. This was great because now other teams could ask their price cause they knew we have to get rid of him. What a great business strategy from 5 owners. Amaro made the best out of a bad stituation.
Posted: 02:51 PM on December 17, 2009
Posts: 0 Griffin
j reed, while I agree that the owners set a strict budget, I still think that Amaro would have been better off keeping Lee for 2010 and getting the two draft picks. These Seattle prospects just aren’t that good. So I blame ownership but I also blame Amaro.
Posted: 02:55 PM on December 17, 2009
Posts: 0 Griffin
Then again, if Amaro had not signed Moyer to a 2-year deal, then Lee would probably still be on the Phillies. Amaro is definitely not without his share of blame in this mess.
Posted: 02:55 PM on December 17, 2009
Posts: 0 Matt Kwasiborski
This is what I think they should do with the 5th position. It is unconventional but this is what I think they should do.
1. Once they get their bullpen pieces ask Pedro what he would pitch for this season
2. Pedro and Moyer would be the 5th starter
3. Both probably cannot hold up full time over the year but as we saw in the first few Pedro starts where rain ended his starts, Moyer came in and did a fine job
4. They would alternate who would start the game and the other would come in
5. It would take a significant sacrifice to their egos but I think both of them combined would be highly effective during 4 inning outings. It would also allow us to rest our pen when they combine start.
It may be off the wall but I think they are the best choices for the 5th side.
Posted: 02:55 PM on December 17, 2009
Posts: 0 Geoff
I just CANT believe there are people complaining about this. They got a few good prospects back. Not as good as they gave, because Roy has much more value. Theyre going to be a winning team again and likely return to the WS. Why are you complaining about winning.
Having a rotation with both of them in it woulld be great, but it is also a fantasy and there is a reason that most teams dont have two VETERAN, ESTABLISHED aces like that long term – because its costs way too much.
You wanna keep Lee and Halladay?
Then you have to trade Jimmy, Rollins, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jayson Werth, or someone like that….which AINT happeneng.
Or you couldbe cut Blanton, but you would get NOTHING in return for him at all and would just be….throwing him away….so I think you guys that are comlpainig are just being haters…
Posted: 02:58 PM on December 17, 2009
Posts: 0 j reed
NEPA – we’re just not worthy and should be thankful. we forgot our place.
Posted: 02:58 PM on December 17, 2009
Posts: 0 Geoff
no doubt, the Moyer decision was a bad one. I ripped him for it as his one really bad mistake. I was against that from the very beginning…it was totally senseless.
Posted: 02:59 PM on December 17, 2009
Posts: 0 Griffin
It’s amazing to me how many people are drinking the front office’s Kool-Aid.
If the Phils had come up short 2 years ago in the World Series (before Amaro was the GM), I guarantee a lot more people would be upset about trading Cliff Lee for slop.
But I guess since the Phils have been successful then we have no right to complain or second guess any move.
Posted: 03:03 PM on December 17, 2009
Posts: 0 Jesus
Because people don’t agree with you Griffin, we are drinking the kool-aid? You are listening to what OTHERS are saying about what we got back from the M’s, so are you drinking their kool-aid? Prospects are never a given and what’s wrong with taking 3 prospects over 2 draft picks? Aumont was the 11th pick in the 07 draft and he is slop according to you, so there is no guarantee that the Phils would draft a worthy prospect. Give it some time.
Posted: 03:09 PM on December 17, 2009
Posts: 0 NEPA
Thats it,
I will never question the moves of the higher ups.I am nothing.And I will never forget it.
Cmon people lighten up…….were just blogging about the trade.This isnt brain surgery .
Posted: 03:12 PM on December 17, 2009
Posts: 0 Griffin
The fact that people are totally fine with trading Lee for inferior prospects is because the Phillies won the world series 2 years ago and we should all “give the front office the benefit of the doubt”.
If I could fine anyone other then the 10% of Phillies fans that actually liked this trade, I wouldn’t think it was so one-sided. So yes, I think many people are drinking the Kool-Aid.
Posted: 03:12 PM on December 17, 2009
Posts: 0 j reed
griffin- i agree keep lee. low risk – high rewards…Any decent business owner with the assests of these 5 f**ks would have found the money…it’s a no brainer. yeah the moyer signing was bad but Amaro couldn’t have foreseen this particular stituation…although a stituation similiar to this would eventually arise.
Posted: 03:13 PM on December 17, 2009
Posts: 0 JXSCHI
I know Halliaday is great and a better pitcher then Lee. But we still only have one dependable starter. We can get to the world series, but we will be in the same position, facing a team with 3 dependable starters Either the Yankees or Red Sox. And in my opinion can’t beat either team. We were so close to have the mother load it makes me sick to my stomach. They are so focused on the the 140 million they cant see the obvious. It comes down to a salary dump, they more concerned with being competative and selling 3 and half millions tickets for the next 3 years. They have lost focus on winning another world series. Sorry for the spelling and bad grammar. I am an old man and dont have many years left, so I dont give a shit about the future when you are so close that you can taste it.
Posted: 03:17 PM on December 17, 2009
Posts: 0 Griffin
j reed, I’m with you, the owners are embarrassingly cheap here. Considering how well the fans pack CBP, they should have more financial flexibility.
Posted: 03:19 PM on December 17, 2009
Posts: 0 Jesus
I wanted Lee here to, but I can’t believe it was just a salary dump. If it was then why not just non-tender Blanton and save on the 7-7.5 mill he would have received and keep Lee?
Posted: 03:21 PM on December 17, 2009
Posts: 0 TODDFROMFAIRMOUNT
This Breaking News, The Phillies Owners Don’t Like To Spend Their Own Money Or Operate With A Loss For A Particular Season.
No F@$%ing kidding, I’ve been putting up with that for the last 28 years with these people. That’s what makes this deal sooo good. If you don’t like it, become a yankee or red sox fan. I’m not leavin’ ever.
Corey, i’m on board with your post, well written.
Go Phils.
Posted: 03:22 PM on December 17, 2009
Posts: 0 Griffin
That’s what I would have done, Jesus. Dump Blanton, keep Lee and recoup the draft picks after this season.
Posted: 03:23 PM on December 17, 2009
Posts: 0 Geoff
Thats the point. They won something, they got back to the WS. Im going to give them the benefit of the doubt.
Posted: 03:23 PM on December 17, 2009
Posts: 0 Griffin
Geoff, Amaro was not the GM when they won the WS. So why give him the benefit of the doubt?
Posted: 03:26 PM on December 17, 2009
Posts: 0 JXSCHI
This is starting to sound like the Flyers board. Talk about Stepfords. Yes I know the Flyers are going to turn it around and win the next 3 Stanley Cups.
Posted: 03:28 PM on December 17, 2009
Posts: 0 Jesus
I think they would have done that if it was just a pure salary dump. I’m not naive enough to believe that money didn’t play into this at all, but I don’t think it was the only reason they traded Lee. I think they wanted to have some ammo in the minors if they needed to make some trades for pen arms or in case of injuries.
Posted: 03:29 PM on December 17, 2009
Posts: 0 Maniac
I’ve read enough. The bottom line is Cliff Lee really wanted to be in Philadelphia. Someone else could have been moved to free up some money. Remember Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling? Yeah, well looks like our chances of winning the World Series went down the drain. Of course we can make it there, but Cliff played just about perfect in the playoffs and I cannot see Roy making that much of a difference unless he pitches every other game, sorry. Horrible trade and that’s all there is to it. They rushed through it and really didn’t improve much. Let’s be realistic. Roy Halladay is an outstanding talent but he’s not going to win it for us. We witnessed Cliff Lee dominate in the post season and we needed both of them to beat the Yankees.
Posted: 03:30 PM on December 17, 2009
Posts: 0 Jeff
God Griffen and the rest of you stop bitching already. My god. You get the best pitcher in baseball and your still not happy. Its over with already. Cry and cry some more. RAJ is the GM and you are not. We won the world series and went back. Most teams dont do that. I do not care what Lee did in the post season. If he pitched liked he did at the end of the season you would not care. Halladay is a much better pitcher. We have scouts and people doing there job to make sure we got back some talent. Now I see its true why the rest of the world hates Philadelphia fans. We should be proud of this team. I got my Halladay jersey coming in the mail and I cant wait to wear it. If we kept Lee and did not win it all you would bitch we did not resign him or got nothing for him. Become Met fans..
Posted: 03:31 PM on December 17, 2009
Posts: 0 psujoe
I wanted Lee to stay as much as the next guy, but these 3 prospects are superior to 2 draft picks. A lot of differing opinions, but if this is ranking of the Phils farm is close how can anyone complain?
Philadelphia Phillies
1. Dominic Brown
2. Tyson Gillies
3. Phillippe Aumont
4. Domingo Santana
5. Anthony Gose
6. Trevor May
7. Antonio Bastardo
8. J.C. Ramirez
9. Sebastian Valle
10. Vance Worley
Posted: 03:33 PM on December 17, 2009
Posts: 0 Jeff
Hey Maniac shut up. We won it all with Hamels and Myers. If Hamels showed up last year we win. Now we have Hamels and Halladay. Could be the two best in baseball. Nobody in the NL will put up 7 against DOC like they did on LEE. If your going to bitch do it against your Eagles.
Posted: 03:33 PM on December 17, 2009
Posts: 0 Griffin
Jeff, you’re right. We should never complain on a Phillies blog when we make a bad trade.
Posted: 03:34 PM on December 17, 2009
Posts: 0 psujoe
jeff, Very true. Lee had 3 5+ run games in two months for the Phils. halladay had 3 all year in a much tougher division.
Posted: 03:40 PM on December 17, 2009
Posts: 0 psujoe
No BS. Halladay might win 25 games.
Posted: 03:41 PM on December 17, 2009
Posts: 0 TODDFROMFAIRMOUNT
Maniac, Big Roy can throw 3 times in a WS. If you are honest with the situation, we and the Phils brass new and know C Lee can’t, couldn’t and didn’t throw 3 games in the WS when we really needed our #1 to do it. Let the mets sign him for 2011 and you can go up the pike and watch him go 7-4 for them. :)
Posted: 03:41 PM on December 17, 2009
Posts: 0 JXSCHI
Jeff, We would get 2 first rounds picks for Lee. Much better then 2 low level pitching prospect and another Gose. Come on open your eyes.
Posted: 03:42 PM on December 17, 2009
Posts: 0 Chuck
The Phillies aren’t “cash-strapped”, Griffin…
They practice smart economic budgeting…12 million for a guy like Jayson Werth…with his current numbers….is probably BELOW market value for what he is worth….
People think that the Phillies are “cash-strapped” because they wouldn’t pay the extra for Cliff Lee…or that they wouldn’t consider somehow figure out how to have him and Roy Halladay both on this team…for multiple years….
How many times dooes it have to be said….Ciff Lee is going to command a contract of AT LEAST 5 or 6 years at AT LEAST 20 million per year….I’m glad the Phillies didn’t go there…
Instead they got Roy Halladay….a BETTER pitcher….for BELOW market value….for four more years..
Posted: 03:45 PM on December 17, 2009
Posts: 0 Phil
I just don’t see relying on Moyer for the fifth spot as a move that’s going to work out. Yes, his salary hurts a lot (as others have pointed out), but that’s not a good reason to start a weak pitcher. Nor is the fact that he would suck out of the bullpen.
I’d go with Kendrick, assuming there aren’t any other reasonable options out there (and there probably aren’t).
Posted: 03:45 PM on December 17, 2009
Posts: 0 Griffin
Chuck, the Halladay and Lee trades were two independent transactions. There’s no reason why they couldn’t trade for Halladay and keep Lee for this season.
The reason I mention that the Phils are close to budget is that they made Toronto include $6 mil in the Halladay trade. In return for that, the Phils had to include better prospects in the deal.
Posted: 03:47 PM on December 17, 2009
Posts: 0 psujoe
Those 3 prospects and $6 million may come in handy at the deadline if Howard, Utley or another key piece goes down. I’m liking the move more and more.
Posted: 03:50 PM on December 17, 2009
Posts: 0 Griffin
That $6 mil covers the difference between Lee and Halladay’s salaries for 2010.
Posted: 03:51 PM on December 17, 2009
Posts: 0 psujoe
Griffin, the budget has a potential deadine move built in. Without the $6 million it doesn’t.
Posted: 03:54 PM on December 17, 2009
Posts: 0 Griffin
psujoe, if that’s the case, then great. I still would have used that 6 mil and come up with 3 mil elsewhere to pay Lee.
Posted: 03:56 PM on December 17, 2009
Posts: 0 Jesus
I am confused as to why people keep insisting that 2 draft picks are better than 3 prospects. Can someone please explain this to me?
Posted: 03:56 PM on December 17, 2009