Hopeful Optimism & Tempered Expectations
Posted by Corey Seidman, Thu, January 21, 2010 04:00 AM | Comments: 33
Analysis, News, Opinion, Posts
It’s easy to put the Phillies in the World Series today.
Despite sitting out the middle portion of free agency, Ruben Amaro was able to improve an already formidable team to the point that it will enter the 2010 season with a crown tentatively on its head, a collection of expectations higher than Crispin Glover in this interview.
Go to SportsBook.com, go to any website that takes wagers on future odds. The Phillies are favored, by a large amount, to capture a third consecutive National League championship. Their odds of winning the World Series are only lower than that of Jerek Deter’s Yankees.
But is this fair? Is it acceptable to make foregone conclusions about the 2010 Phillies, or place so much trust and faith into a set of 25 men that could possibly fail to live up to the hype that has been created from several years of unprecedented franchise success? Put this song on and we’ll have a look-see.
Phlak Jackets
Before you answer the questions posed, let’s take a moment to explore the team’s relative health since the start of the 2008 season. In two years:
- Ryan Howard has missed two games
- Chase Utley has played hurt in parts of both years, but only missed nine games
- Shane Victorino has averaged 151 games
- Cole Hamels has made 33 and 32 starts
- Jayson Werth has missed little time since becoming an everyday player; 159 games in 2009
- Ryan Madson has been healthy enough to average 78 appearances
- Joe Blanton has missed no time
- Jimmy Rollins spent a little while on the DL in 2008, but has still averaged 146 games
The Phillies have been healthy. Very healthy. Sure, injuries have sidelined Raul Ibanez, Greg Dobbs, J.C. Romero, Brad Lidge, Jamie Moyer, and Carlos Ruiz, but other than Romero, none of those injuries have resulted in an extended absence. It can be easily argued that none of these injuries have significantly impacted the team’s success since 2008.
Losing a left fielder for a month, a top pinch hitter for a few months, or a situational lefty for 3/4 of the season can have an effect, but would you honestly equate those losses with not having a Jose Reyes, a Carlos Beltran, a Johan Santana, or a Carlos Delgado for most of the season?
The point is that the Phillies core has been healthy. (Everytime I hear the word “core” I think of Michael Scott saying “I got this new machine, it’s supposed to work your core. Your front core, your back core…I think it’s even used by the marine corps.”) No player has appeared in more games since 2008 than Ryan Howard, who, in case you haven’t heard, is quite the difference maker. The rest of the players in the above list have all been together on the field a vast majority of the time and haven’t seen the rigors of an 162-game schedule result in an inability to perform on a daily basis.
Does this degree of health have any bearing on the upcoming season? The short answer is no, it doesn’t. Ryan Howard is just as likely to miss 30 games as any other relatively healthy player, because there is no real predictor of injury other than old age and prior surgeries or red flags. But, in looking at the Phils’ recent overwhelming success, it must be noted that the key cogs have been healthy and/or lucky enough to avoid deterioration, collisions, or suffering a broken collarbone by falling down a flight of stairs while carrying deer meat (see: Clint Barmes, 2005.)
NL Least
The National League East has not been as competitive as it should have been. Over the past few seasons, the Braves and Mets have both dealt with crippling injuries that have ended their respective seasons in the middle of the summer. The Phillies were 14-4 against the Braves in ’08 and 12-6 against the Mets in ’09. In those years, the Phils also beat the Nationals 27 times in 36 games. The rest of the division wasn’t exactly peaking.
The Mets followed up on a ridiculous, comically bad 2009 season by having a ridiculous, comically bad offseason, but they won’t lose 92 games again. The Braves traded their ace for what turned out to be no good reason at all, but starters are still employed in Atlanta that seem to baffle the Phillies with regularity (Jair Jurrjens and Derek Lowe, I’m looking at you.) The Marlins and Phils seem to trade blows every year and finish .500 against each other (give or take a game,) and the Nationals will once again be walking around with their pants on the ground in 2010.
The NL East lacks a legitimate threat, but it isn’t hard to imagine the Phils losing a game or two more to the Mets or Braves, even with the additions of Roy Halladay, Placido Polanco, and the biggest prize of all, Cody Ransom. Why? Well, because of the laws of sustenance and regression, of course.
The “Eggs-In-One-Basket” Adage
It is necessary to look at aspects such as good health and surrounding divisional weakness when viewing recent and future success because unfulfilled expectations can leave an awful taste in your mouth. No, the Phillies have no realistic competitors in the division or even the National League as a whole (the Cardinals and Dodgers both got worse; can you name one team that got better?) and yes, if games were played on paper they could take the 2010 NL Pennant and throw it in the bag.
But anything can happen. We all know that. Roy Halladay could take a line drive off the knee and miss six weeks. Ryan Howard could strain a muscle during a home run trot and Cole Hamels could develop back stiffness while getting a pedicure. Or none of that could happen and the Phillies could win 100 games. The point is, we don’t know.
And since we don’t know, we all need to take a deep breath and temper our expectations. When the Eagles laid two eggs in Dallas earlier this month, the consensus opinion in the city seemed to be, “Well, that sucks…how many days ’til pitchers and catchers?” The reason it was easy to get over the Eagles pathetic finish was because of the looming excitement the Phillies have created for us all in recent years.
Being able to rely on the Phillies strengths to make up for the painful deficiencies of the Eagles is a beautiful thing, but with such high hopes comes the possibility of heartbreaking disappointment. The Phils may be the most qualified team to reach the World Series again, but I truly thought I was the most qualified applicant for MLB.com’s Associate Beat Writer internship. I didn’t temper my expectations and the results were extremely difficult to deal with when things didn’t work out.
Rather than getting lost in fantasies and thinking about what should happen, focus on the anticipation and ecstacy the Phillies have given us and will hopefully give us for years to come.
I’m not imploring you all to just “accept it” if the 2010 Phillies don’t realize their potential. I’m just suggesting that we all take things in stride and focus on the journey rather than the destination.
The mantra of this team since 2007 has been “one day at a time.” As difficult as it will be, perhaps we should adopt the same mindset.
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[...] Corey Seidman of PhilliesNation.com thinks the Phillies should prevail in a weak NL [...]
Posted: 06:14 AM on January 21, 2010
Posts: 0 bfo_33
Every year I go into the season thinking we will be in the world series, even when the pitching staff was Kevin Gross and ? Why temper expectations, even when you are hoping for a miracle? 2010 should nto require one.
The Phillies of 2010 are a very different team from the 2009 Mets. Mets fans may say it was the injury bug, bad luck,…. Look at the way that team was built. When Reyes played poorly in 2008, they lost. He is the key to their offense, and they are nothing without him. They had a guy who they could not afford to lose in 2009, and they lost him. End of season. Will he be healthy this year? Even if so, who’s going to knock him in?
Rollins, Vic, and the Head can all lead off if necessary. Utley and Werth can both hit third. They have 4 legit RBIs guys in Howard, Utley, Werth, and Ibanez. The biggest injury risk is the outfield (Ibanez because he’s old, Vic because of his all out play), where they have minor league depth. If they had to bring someone up, they could hit them 7th or 8th – wouldn’t require a rookie to carry the offense. Take any one guy out for the year, and they still score over 800 runs.
The Phils would have gone to the playoffs last year without Lee (not sure how far they would have gone though) even with an off year from our Ace. They could lose Doc for an extended period and still get there, even if Hamels isn’t back to 2008 form. They showed they can get to the playoffs without a closer or reliable bullpen. With the possible exception of the Marlins, no team in the NL East (maybe the Giants in the west) got better from last year. Not buying the ring yet, but why temper anything?
Posted: 07:58 AM on January 21, 2010
Posts: 0 Ed R.
Is Ransom actually going to be on the Phillies roster? I was thinking he would get stuck in the minors or released all together.
Posted: 07:59 AM on January 21, 2010
Posts: 0 Bob in Bucks
Nice article. All I want every year is meaningful September baseball. So long as the Phillies are in the hunt I am happy. Winning in playoffs and WS is just as much about luck as anything else. Players have hot and cold streaks and there is no predicting when it comes.
I have similar concerns about the Phillies health. It has been remarkable and all good things do come to an end. Also, this will be the FIRST year that the Phillies are the favorites – look back – they were not even favorites last year. I take that as a bad omen.
But, even if they don’t make it, so long as they are competitive I am happy.
Posted: 09:05 AM on January 21, 2010
Posts: 0 Chuck
“They could lose Doc for an extended period and still get there, even if Hamels isn’t back to 2008 form.”
Yeah…they COULD…but let’s not think that the Phillies can just repeat last year’s playbook…..with Hamels being “off” ….and the bullpen being not what it should have been..
And let’s not just assume that the Marlins and Braves aren’t going to catch lightning in a bottle…those two teams do have the ability to surprise people…
Most likely…yeah, sure…the Phillies are in a VERY GOOD POSITION…heading into the Spring…they are better…on paper than last year..
Posted: 09:36 AM on January 21, 2010
Posts: 0 bfo_33
While expectatations are high (like they are every year), nothing is taken for granted. Going in like I always have for the last 35 years, looking forward to October baseball in Philly, but enjoy the trip along the way regardless. I also buy a powerball ticket 2xs/week. My left side brain tells me this is stupid (I have a pretty good grasp of statistics, while not as unlikely as getting attacked by a polar bear and a grizzly bear in one day, it’s pretty close). The right side thinks that it is only 2$/week, a small price to pay for a 5 minute dream on the ride home from the news stand.
The team that concerns me more than any other in our division is the Marlins. They always play the Phils tough. They have incredible talent, but are missing something, seems like leadership. If they get “that guy” to tap the competitive drive, refuse to lose, they could be very scary. The Marlins and the Giants are the two NL teams that didn’t make the playoffs in 2009 that I could see winning 100 games.
Posted: 09:59 AM on January 21, 2010
Posts: 0 Ed R.
Let’s not forget that the Nationals have improved their team a lot. I don’t think they are going to be the punching bag that they have been since moving to D.C. The Phillies have pretty much owned them the last few years and I really don’t expect that to happen again. This is probably the Phillies division to lose but I don’t think it will be as easy as some people think it will be. I actually think it will be a rather competitive this year. Possibly the best division in baseball.
Posted: 10:06 AM on January 21, 2010
Posts: 0 Don M
Marlins blow… Braves are good… Mets will suck again.. Nats will be last year’s Marlins to us, a team that gives us some fits, and we’ll play .500 type ball against them (or they’ll suck)
…
This was my entry from the other post, but wanted to share since I didn’t think anyone would see it:
“ESPECIALLY Because 2008 happened… I would rather have the middle of the road team, with the chance to make the playoffs and the World Series
that I could go to see 10-15 times a year.. instead of a WS winner that I couldn’t afford to ever watch in person
I became a Phillies fan because my dad used to take me to games at the Vet, not because I used to watch them on TV”
Posted: 10:24 AM on January 21, 2010
Posts: 0 johnkrukslovechild
“Roy Halladay could take a line drive off the knee and miss six weeks”.
Lady Luck, don’t listen to him, HE WAS JUST MAKING A POINT ! Nooooooooooo.
Seriously though, totally agreed, we have a good team but anything can happen in baseball. Win or lose, we’ve gotten plenty of thrills, and that’s what it’s all about.
Posted: 10:50 AM on January 21, 2010
Posts: 0 Manny
A little more salt on the wound, from mlbtraderumors:
“Olney believes the Phillies could have and should have kept Cliff Lee. He points out that they could’ve traded Joe Blanton and taken draft picks for Lee after the season, resulting in a similar prospect package to the one they received from the Mariners. It’s not the exact same, partly since Blanton could yet net draft picks for the Phils, but I agree with Olney’s point. The Phillies’ decision to move Lee in tandem with the Roy Halladay trade just seems weird. “
Posted: 10:59 AM on January 21, 2010
Posts: 0 Manny
Don, I’m shocked how you always say the Marlins blow… yet they’ve been World Champs twice (hey, just like us!!) with young teams.. they always give us fits… and they were the SECOND team in the division last year, ON TOP of the mighty Braves. They still have their team together… and they’ll only get better with experience.
Posted: 11:03 AM on January 21, 2010
Posts: 0 Bob
ENOUGH WITH THE LEE TALK…..SERIOUSLY.
Posted: 11:05 AM on January 21, 2010
Posts: 0 Bob
Now that that’s out of the way:
-The Mets will not lose 92 games and when healthy there is talent there. They seem to usually have their way with us early in seasons and alot of those games are competitive (on field and in the stands too)
-The Fish are dangerous lurkers and are capable of 90 wins. They play the Phillies tough year in and out. No reason to think it’s different this year.
-The Nats are improved and although we have had our way the last couple of years with them, some are very goofy games. They have a capable offense and their pitching can’t get any worse.
-We all know how tough the Braves are….that pitching is solid and they have been a thorn for years.
The NL East will be alot better this season. Phils are and should be favorites but nothing is guaranteed. A playoff birth is never a given in baseball with only 4 teams in each league making it. A solid start is a must for this team….other teams will be gunning in their “it’s April and we have hope and optimism” mode.
Posted: 11:09 AM on January 21, 2010
Posts: 0 Chuck
Don…
I’m glad you clarified….”middle of the road” team….with the “CHANCE to make the playoffs and World Series”…
….Cause last night…in responding to Dipsy’s question…I said that IF the Phillies were mediocre….and completely out of it….basically if they sucked…then I would trade the ability to go to multiple games…in order to have a WS championship…
(it would take a few years for me to come to that conclusion, too..I would endure a FEW seasons of lousy baseball in person before I ever considered NOT going to games….just to trade for a championship)
BUT…if the Phillies were indeed just “middle of the road”….but still had that CHANCE to go to the postseason….then, yeah…I agree…I would much rather be able to go to games…because there is nothing like being there….being PHYSICALLY connected somehow to the team you root for..
Also…I would trade that for only one season….for the same reasons…I like going to the ballpark several times a year.
I’m not sure if any of that makes any sense…and ….hopefully….it’s all just a moot point anyway….hopefully the Phillies can continue to be an affordable AND competitive form of sports entertainment for all of us Phils fans!!
Posted: 11:17 AM on January 21, 2010
Posts: 0 bfo_33
Maybe late news, but Piniero signed with LAA. Thank goodness he stayed out of the NL East. Molina signing in SF also interesting, Mets offered almost double, he still turned them down (stated concerned with playing in NY, I didn’t hear whether it was the city, the stadium, or the team) . There is a part of me that enjoys any bad news associated with the Mets, but the 2007/8 seasons were so great because the Mets were close. It’s not a rivalry unless there is a chance either team can win (again, a lot could happen, but the Mets have the look of a team in total chaos).
The Mets need to take advantage of their stadium, build their team like the 80′s Cardinals – speed, defense, and pitching. Omar and Manuel gone by June.
Posted: 11:19 AM on January 21, 2010
Posts: 0 Don M
the Marlins in 1997 and 2003 have nothing to do with their current team..
I just think they suck… Good starting pitching, no bullpen at all
a decent lineup.. but they’ll probably trade anyone that starts to produce for them.. Cameron Maybin would be good if he played on a better team, where he could bat 7th and slowly get his feel for the Majors..
instead, they’ve tried to get him involved too soon.
Josh Johnson is filthy..
Ricky Nolasco is Brett Myers
Anibel Sanchez, Chris Volstad, etc… these guys COULD be great.. but they need to stay healthy and stay productive
I don’t see the Marlins being above .500 this year..
And I think the Phillies win the NL EAST by double-digits
Posted: 11:21 AM on January 21, 2010
Posts: 0 Chuck
The crying over Cliff Lee continues….why am I not surprised..
I swear….for HIS sake (not just ours)….I hope Roy Halladay gets off to a great start….and puts to rest all this “if we had Cliff Lee” talk..
“Just Crushed”….are you out there?….Do YOU have anything you would like to add??
Posted: 11:22 AM on January 21, 2010
Posts: 0 Don M
yea obviously, if they had NO CHANCE, id rather not watch..
in 2008.. way before the playoffs..
I asked everyone if they would take a GUARANTEED WORLD SERIES VICTORY, if it meant your team would have NO CHANCE to win for the next 10 years.
….or would people rather have their team keep plugging away and see what happens.
I took the second option, because Championships are great.. but there is nothing like the thoughts of a new season.. the WHAT IF’s .. everyone thinking that THIS COULD BE THE YEAR, etc. .
I took LOTS of crap for that view too, people telling me I wasn’t a real fan, etc.. But I love looking at the season ahead, and holding out some hope that our team will put it all together . . . (which is why i was never a big fan of the ALL-IN for 2010, and sucking again in 2012-and beyond) ..
Posted: 11:25 AM on January 21, 2010
Posts: 0 Manny
You think they suck, yet they magically finished second in the division in 09… interesting.
Posted: 11:42 AM on January 21, 2010
Posts: 0 Jake
Corey,
Would you like to do us all a favor and knock on some g*ddamn wood?! I can just see 34 taking one to the knee right after McCarthy says something like, “You know Wheels, this is Halladay’s third straight appearance in the 9th. His durability is truly remarkable!” I appreciate you taking into account the whole picture and all, though isn’t this a conversation we have only after our season has been ruined by injuries?
Call me superstitious, call me a jerk — whatever. The injury discussion is obviously taboo. It’s too early man, let us dream.
All this being said, good post. I enjoy your work.
Thanks,
Jake
Posted: 11:43 AM on January 21, 2010
Posts: 0 Don M
With 36 games against the 60-win Nationals, and the 70-win Mets
“suck” is a relative term… obviously there are plenty worse teams in baseball.. they just don’t scare me at all … and I think they’ll be a bad team this year
I just get feelings about some teams.. last year I liked the Rangers a lot, and the Braves …neither made the playoffs but both were good teams … I expect both to be very good this year too
I don’t think the Dodgers are a playoff team this year… Not sure if the Giants added enough, or if the Rockies will get enough from Jeff Francis, Houston Street, etc to take over the NL WEST ??? But I think the Dodgers needed starting pitcing more than anyone else in baseball, and they didn’t get any.. in fact, they lost someone legit in Randy Wolf
They have a good bullpen, but its tough for your bullpen to help you when you’re down 3 runs all the time
Posted: 11:51 AM on January 21, 2010
Posts: 0 Chuck
See…to me…a “real fan” IS someone that enjoys that “anticipation” of a new season…year after year…
People who want a championship for a year…and then a team that sucks for the next 10 years…those people will be the first to jump ship when the team starts going downhill..
They can say they are “big fans”…because they cheered for the Phillies when they won…but now that they are lousy….those fans are nowhere to be found.
Posted: 11:54 AM on January 21, 2010
Posts: 0 Bill
Great post Corey! Anything can happen over a 162 game season. While I believe the Phillies would need some pretty big obstacles to not at leat win the division in 2010, one never knows what will happen.
On the other hand, isn’t it a great time to be a Phillies fan knowing that our team is… at least on paper, the best in the league?
http://www.phillysportscomplete.com
Posted: 12:05 PM on January 21, 2010
Posts: 0 Manny
Last year I predicted the Fish to finish second.. Mets 3rd… Braves 4th…
And I had a good feeling about the Giants, I had them winning that division… Dodgers 2nd.
For 2010,
Giants got even better, Dodgers have no pitching except for Kershaw and a major Billingsley comeback. Giants added some bats, which is what they were missing…so I’ll have them taking the division this time, even though I think it’ll be close.
For the NL East, still haven’t made up my mind. If the Mets get healthy before/during spring training, it could change things a lot…
Posted: 12:20 PM on January 21, 2010
Posts: 0 Manny
(I do think Phils finish 1st, because they’re the best team on paper… but I wonder how the rest of the division is gonna shape up)..
Posted: 12:22 PM on January 21, 2010
Posts: 0 Chuck
I think we have a better chance of having a snowstorm in July…than the Mets winning the division..
Posted: 12:27 PM on January 21, 2010
Posts: 0 Don M
I think Kuroda is the best pitcher on the Dodgers’ staff… Billingsley is horrible (in my opinion).. a STATS pitcher, but not a winner, he’s got no heart
Kershaw will be good but he’s only like 14 years old.. so it’ll take a while before he’s an All-Star … he’ll I could be wrong, he might be one this year
Furcal and Blake are both older and slower.. Russell Martin is a fraud of a baseball player .. Manny isn’t Manny without a needle in his fanny … Kemp, Ethier, and Loney are all legit players … everything rests on their Starting Pitching though, and I think they missed out not getting anyone this offseason (I guess the possible sale of the team limits how much money they can spend?)
Posted: 12:33 PM on January 21, 2010
Posts: 0 Chuck
Is Russell Martin even a baseball player, period?? … I thought he was an L.A. street thug..
I agree…the Giants do seem like the most-improved team…at least on paper…probably the team to beat in the West.
Posted: 12:51 PM on January 21, 2010
Posts: 0 Don M
Rockies didn’t lose anyone.. and they get back their staff ace from 2008, Jeff Francis
Yahoo.. doesn’t even have Carlos Gonzalez listed as a starter..
they’ve got Seth Smith, Dexter Fowler, and Brad Hawpe… Gonzalez and Ryan Spillbourghs as their backup OFs
Todd Helton, Clint Barmes, Troy Tulo, Ian Stewart, Chris Ianetta
Rotation of Francis, Aaron Cook, Ubaldo Jimenez, Jorge De La Rosa, Jason Hammel
Bullpen: Huston Street, Rafeael Betancourt, Franklin Morales, Manny Corpas..who was wild last year, but GREAT two years ago
Posted: 01:05 PM on January 21, 2010
Posts: 0 joe
whens the last time we could sit here and say
“if the phils DON’T make the world series again, it’s a failure”
’09 we didn’t really know til cliff got here..and then, it wasn’t a foregone conclusion..
but this year.. the phils are hands down the class of the NL.
and i love it.
should be fun
Posted: 01:39 PM on January 21, 2010
Posts: 0 bfo_33
The big difference between baseball and other sports is that regardless of the standings, any given day you can see a gem. There really isn’t any such thing as an upset in a baseball game, since there are so many variables to a game. There is also the personal attachment to the farm system when looking at next year. Winning the WS is the hope of every fan, but only a Yankees fan feels the season is a failure if it doesn’t happen.
Posted: 01:42 PM on January 21, 2010
Posts: 0 Malcolm
Looks like we’re going to sign Blanton to a 3 yr/24 mil extension.
Posted: 02:41 PM on January 21, 2010
Posts: 0 Chuck
Just read that on mlbtraderumors….
Nothing wrong with that deal.
Posted: 02:48 PM on January 21, 2010