Phillies Nation

It was August 9, 2006.  The Phillies were making a second half run, but were trailing the Braves by one in the top of the seventh inning.  The bases were loaded when the hard-nosed second baseman stepped up to the plate.  His short, quick stroke sent a double to left center field.  It emptied the bases and gave his team the lead.  He stood on second base, awaiting the team’s RBI machine to drive him in.  A weak Baltimore chop headed towards first base, appearing to be nothing but an out.  The runner had a different mind set.  The runner hustled and safely slid into home plate.  Enter Harry Kalas: “Chase Utley, you are the man!”

The legendary call still sticks with Utley.  And why not?  He’s established himself as today’s best second baseman in baseball.  He is the man.

In the 2008 off-season, it was announced that Utley needed hip surgery, and the recovery time was 4-6 months.  At the time, it was feared that Utley would not return until June.  Being the competitor that he is, Utley wasn’t going to let that happen.  His hard work ethic got him prepared for Opening Day.  By May, his injury was forgotten.

Surprisingly, Utley had a down year — for being Chase Utley.  His “down year” was still an All Star season, and good enough for another Silve Slugger Award.  Hitting .282 with 31 home runs and a .905 on-base plus slugging percentage was a little out of the norm for Chase, but that just shows his caliber.  Utley batted .313 in the first half of the season, but his .204 average in September was the main reason for his drop in production. 

Utley made up for his September slump in the postseason.  He hit .296 with six home runs in the playoffs.  His five home runs in the World Series tied Reggie Jackson’s record.

Utley’s hitting is feared throughout the league, but his other tools make him a dangerous player.  Utley’s fielding continues to improve.  Utley was arguably snubbed of a Gold Glove, as he had a 10.8 ultimate zone rating, which was first among all second basemen in the National League.  In addition, Utley’s one of the smartest baserunners in the league.

It’ll be interesting to see what amazing things Utley does on the field in 2010.  Harry couldn’t have put it any better: “Chase Utley, you are the man!”

2009 stats: 156 G, .282 AVG, 31 HR, 112 R, 93 RBI, 23 SB, .905 OPS

Grade: 9.6/10 –  He had a “down year,” but still put up All Star numbers.  He’s currently the best second baseman in baseball.  If not for a poor September, Chase would have gotten a perfect ten. 

When Ruben Amaro has made moves this offseason, he’s done so in a flurry, seemingly using the “high” of completing one transaction to help him push ahead and make another.

After re-signing Joe Blanton and Shane Victorino on Thursday, the Phillies wheeling-and-dealing GM crossed off another line on his to-do list Friday by signing Jose Contreras, a 38 year-old righthander who will likely replace Clay Condrey as the Phillies long-reliever and compete to be the team’s fifth starter. The contract is pending a physical.

Contreras has had an up-and-down career, never fulfilling the potential the Yankees saw in him when they signed the Cuban exile in 2003. He had a promising rookie season in New York, making 18 appearances (9 starts,) and going 7-2 with a 3.30 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and 72 strikeouts in 71 innings. But he struggled mightily the following year and was traded to the White Sox for Esteban Loaiza, a journeyman righthander coming off of a career year (21-9, 2.90 ERA, 2nd in AL Cy Young voting in ’03.)

Contreras played an integral role in the White Sox championship season of 2005, finishing 15-7 with a 3.61 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP. Nearly every stat Contreras compiled in 2005 was a full-season career best, and he expanded upon that success by pitching three gems in the playoffs.

Despite an adequate follow-up season in 2006, Contreras fell off completely in 2007, losing 17 games and producing a 5.57 ERA while allowing 11 hits per nine innings and striking out only 5.4/9. He never truly recovered from that horrid ’07 season and was traded from the White Sox to the Rockies on August 31, 2009.

Upon joining the Rockies, Contreras made 7 appearances and two starts. One of the starts lasted a mere three innings; in the other he allowed only one run over 6 2/3 IP. His 1.59 ERA in those 7 appearances (17 IP) was impressive, as were his 17 strikeouts, but his 1.65 WHIP was too high.

Here, he will try to recapture the success he once had as a starting pitcher and make a case for himself in Spring Training, but if things don’t work out, he’ll serve as a middle reliever. Contreras appears to be better suited as a bullpen arm at this point in his career because he hasn’t shown an ability to sustain success throughout the course of a season since the magical ’05 ride he took with the White Sox.

Like Chan Ho Park, Contreras has displayed much more velocity out of the bullpen. His fastball has long hovered in the 91-92 mph average, but shot up to 94 as a reliever in limited time in Colorado. He throws his fastball 66% of the time, but also sports an 84-86 mph slider and a 77-79 mph splitter.

Contreras will fit in well at Citizens Bank Park because he has always displayed the ability to get outs on the ground. He has a career ground ball rate of 46%, compared to a fly ball rate of 36%, 1/3 of which have been infield flies. His groundball/flyball ratios of 1.33, 1.72, and 1.24 over the last three seasons have been impressive, and he’ll need to replicate that success in order to succeed in Philadelphia.

He can be a bit wild, evidenced by the fact that in his career, only 50-51% of pitches thrown have been in the strike zone. Hitters know this and tend to lay off of Contreras’ junk, swinging at only 22% of his pitches outside the zone (league average has been 25% or higher the last three years.)

In split duty between starting and relieving last year, Contreras was worth 24.7 runs above replacement and 2.5 wins above replacement.

This was a low-risk, high-reward signing for the Phillies. It won’t make or break their season and it won’t automatically cost Jamie Moyer or Kyle Kendrick a shot at the fifth starter’s job, but it will create more competition for the spot and give the Phillies more rotation and bullpen depth. Year in and year out, nearly every major league team proves that you can never have enough starting pitching.

If Contreras ends up in the ‘pen, you can be assured the Phillies will be looking for that 94 mph fastball to resurface. If it does, and Contreras can continue to be a ground ball pitcher, he could have plenty of success with the Phillies exceptional defense behind him.

Worst case scenario: Contreras is ineffective and used sparingly out of the pen.

Best case scenario: He cracks the rotation or makes the catcher’s mitt pop out of the bullpen, hopefully becoming the 2010 version of Chan Ho Park.

When looking at those potential outcomes, it’s hard to argue with any one-year deal.

Note: Not that any of you would call me on this, but this is an article I originally published to my old blog, The Phrontiersman, about a month ago. Some of the wording has been updated to match the signings of the past week or so.

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It would probably be fair to classify the 2010 season as the beginning of a transitional period in the history of the Phillies.

One piece has already been addressed, with Ruben Amaro having traded for and signed a legitimately elite starter for the next four seasons. Another, slightly less important cog has been WD-40ed, with Placido Polanco replacing Pedro Feliz for the next three seasons. What looms in the future are more pivotal decisions that, if correctly addressed, will keep the Phillies among the National League’s elite teams for years to come.

The first such decision involves Jayson Werth’s future in South Philly. Werth, who will turn 31 in May, had a career year in 2009. Career highs in home runs, RBI, hits, doubles, walks and OPS+ shoved him through the veil of unknown and underrated players into the spotlight (that powerful playoff run he had sure didn’t hurt, either).

But Werth is no lock to continue improving. Wrist and durability issues limited his playing time in Los Angeles and Toronto, and actually cost him his entire 2006; his age 27 season. The Phillies picked him up on a light and airy $850k contract, and Werth has been paying dividends ever since.

Financially, Werth has been a tremendous bargain. Not including undisclosed performance bonuses, Werth has earned $4.55M in three seasons in Philadelphia and is set to make $7M in 2010, nearly doubling his previous earnings.

Think about what that four-and-a-half million has given the Phillies:

• A .276/.376/.494 slash line

• 68 home runs

• 128 extra-base hits

• 47 stolen bases in just 52 attempts

• Excellent RF defense in 2007 and 2008, albeit with a significant drop in 2009

Clearly, the man has outperformed the money he has been paid, and I don’t think anyone disagrees with that. The conundrum facing the Phillies front office lies in whether they believe Werth is valuable enough to retain at a more premium price. Michael Taylor is no longer waiting in the wings. Domonic Brown is at least another full season away. No other outfield prospect worth getting too excited about is even all that close to the Majors.

After the expiration of his current contract following this season, Werth will find himself amid a crop of outfield free agents highlighted by Carl Crawford and Not Really Anybody Else. He will be considered (at worst) the second-best outfielder out there, and will get quite a bit of money.

The question, then, is this: with Werth’s durability issues as close to the front of your mind as his performance in 2008 and 2009, do you find room in the payroll to give him an extension? Red flags about future costs have already been raised with the necessity to dump Cliff Lee during this offseason. Can a significant raise for Werth be afforded? On the flip side, are Werth’s health problems behind him for good? Can he be relied on to play 145+ games for every season of a new contract?

This is what’s set to happen to the payroll following the 2010 season, with Carlos Ruiz left as the only arbitration-eligible player remaining:

• Ryan Howard will get a $1M raise, from $19M to $20M

• Roy Halladay will get a $4.25M raise, from $15.75M to $20M; though, really, this is more of a $10.25M raise

• Cole Hamels will get a $3.25M raise, from $6.65M to $9.5M

• Joe Blanton will get a $1.5M raise, from $7M to $8.5M

• Shane Victorino may be due a raise, depending on details of his new contract that have yet to be published

• Placido Polanco will get a $250k raise, from $5.167M to $5.417M

• Brian Schneider will get a $500k raise, from $1.125M to $1.625M

• Ross Gload will get a $600K raise, from $1M to $1.6M

So that accounts for about $11.35M in raises (or $15.25M, depending on how you view the Halladay situation), not including bonuses. Also not included is the looming potential arbitration eligibility for pitcher Kyle Kendrick and outfielder Ben Francisco. J.A. Happ has an outside chance at eligibility, but will likely fall about 80 days of service time short of qualifying as a Super Two player with a fourth year of arbitration. As for money coming off the books, this is what’s set to go down in terms of 2010 salary:

• Werth will be a free agent after making $7M plus bonuses

• Jamie Moyer will be a free agent after making $6.5M plus a couple more million in bonuses

• J.C. Romero has a 2011 club option for $4.5M with a $250k buyout

• Chad Durbin will be a free agent following his final arbitration year

First, let’s see what kind of money Werth can expect to make, or at least demand. His average production over the past two seasons yields a line of .270/.369/.503, with 30 homers.

Werth has put up numbers similar to new Met Jason Bay’s over the past couple of seasons, but is arguably more valuable for his (typically) plus defense in a more demanding outfield position.

Considering Werth will turn 32 in May of his first season with a new club, it’s not unreasonable to expect a three- or four-year deal for him, with an average annual value in the $13-16M range. Considering Werth isn’t represented by Scott Boras, it’s plausible to think he won’t be getting Matt Holliday money; good news for the Phils, as not only is that too much for Werth, they would have no chance to afford it. A lot of this hinges on a healthy, productive 2010 campaign.

Knowing the current constitution of the Phillies, as well as their prospect situation, is it prudent to extend Werth? Can the Phillies afford him? What sort of deal do you foresee for the slugger? Let’s hear what you think.

Earlier today, Jayson Stark said that the Phillies backed off on John Smoltz, but were interested in Jose Contreras.  ESPN’s Enrique Rojas is reporting that the Phillies have agreed to a one-year deal with Contreras, pending a physical.

Because Smoltz wants to start, the Phillies moved onto Contreras, who will serve as a right-handed reliever and take over Clay Condrey’s role.  Contreras, 38, went 6-13 with a 4.92 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP with the Chicago White Sox and Colorado Rockies in 131.2 innings last year.

I’ll be joining Paul and Tom in a “videocast” over at HotStove.com, one of the best websites for up to the minute baseball coverage. Check out the website at 1 p.m. today as we go over the Victorino and Blanton signings, and what it all means for the Phillies.

Here is the link to HotStove.com.

A Happy Birthday goes out to Phillies backstop Carlos Ruiz, whose birthday is January 22, 1979.

A birthday gift will soon be arriving by way of American dollars, as Ruiz is slated to get a nice raise, either through arbitration or a new contract extension from the Phils.

Here’s to Chooch being around for a while!

Craig Calcaterra of NBC Sports is reporting that a source has told him that the Phillies and center fielder Shane Victorino have agreed to a three-year, $22 million extension.

The report continues a flurry of contract news for the Phils, who just announced the extension of pitcher Joe Blanton earlier today. Victorino, 29, hit .292/.358/.445 with 10 homers in 2009. This was his second year of arbitration eligibility.

With extension talks in progress for Carlos Ruiz, the Phillies would likely have seven of eight positional starters under contract for at least 2010 and 2011.

UPDATE, 10:10 am: The Victorino press conference will be today at Noon at Citizens Bank Park.

The wait is over. This year’s much anticipated Opening Day road trip to Washington, DC to see the Phillies take on the Nationals will take place on Monday, April 5th and tickets are on sale now!

The game starts at at 1:05 pm in DC, so we will be leaving from the P Lot at Citizens Bank Park at 7am sharp to avoid rush hour traffic.

Tickets cost $82 and include:

• Seat to and from DC on a comfy motorcoach showing classic Phillies videos
• Tickets to the game in Section 107
• Tailgate party in parking lot and refreshments on the bus (including some fancy beers)
• Lots of Phillies and Phillies Nation giveaways

Click here to reserve your spot today! And if you live in the DC-area, come meet us for just the tailgate or game.

Also, be sure to check out our discounted tickets to Darren Daulton’s Darts Tournament at McFadden’s next week.

When Jon Heyman reported earlier in the week that Joe Blanton was seeking $10.25M from the Phillies for the 2010 season, all of those old feelings of confusion over the Roy Halladay/Cliff Lee deals resurfaced. Many of us began asking the same questions:

• Does Blanton really think he’s worth $10.25M?
• Was the Phillies counter of $7.5M too much of a lowball offer to drive the price down?
• Would Blanton’s 2010 contract exceed the $8M the team was scheduled to pay Cliff Lee (once upon a time?)

Needless to say, this wasn’t good news for the Phillies. It led to multiple articles being written about the benefits of keeping Lee and instead trading Blanton, an idea that unfortunately means nothing in this pre-time machine world we live in.

Let’s face facts: even with the Lee trade being more so about prospects than money, it was still about financial wiggle room to a certain degree. It would have been inexcusable to pay Joe Blanton, a pitcher quantifiably worse than Lee in every category known to man (or computer,) between $8-10M if Lee could have been kept for the same, or an even lower price.

Luckily, Ruben Amaro and Blanton’s agent, Jeff Barry, were able to agree to terms Thursday that will keep the righthander in Philadelphia through 2012. The three-year deal is worth $24M with $500,000 in incentives that can be reached if Kentucky Joe pitches a certain amount of innings.

Had Blanton gone to arbitration, it’s unclear if he would have been awarded $7.5M or $10.25M, because he would have been worth more than what the Phillies were offering but less than what he wanted. But avoiding the possibility of having to pay him over $10M is a huge coup for the Phils.

Blanton will make $7M in 2010, and $8.5M in 2011 and 2012. So, all in all, the Phillies saved a million bucks by keeping Blanton instead of Lee. (I’m sure that makes you all feel so much better about what’s transpired…)

Looking at this deal in a vacuum, ignoring what happened with Cliff Lee during that whirlwind week, this contract is f-a-n-t-a-s-t-i-c for the Phillies.

For years Blanton was known as an “innings eater,” a term that any loyal Phillies Nation follower knows that I hate, because it is only used to describe average/mediocre pitchers. Example: you don’t hear Roy Halladay mentioned as an innings eater because there are roughly 6,787 other adjectives that sound better. You don’t hear people call Zack Greinke an innings eater and you never saw that label precede the name Greg Maddux for similar reasons.

But in 2009, Blanton did more than merely pitch a bunch of mediocre innings. He pitched 195 1/3 in all, while giving up his fewest amount of earned runs since his rookie season. His hit rate was also the lowest it had been since his rookie year.

But most importantly, Blanton became a strikeout pitcher. The best K/9 ratio he had ever compiled was 6.2, but last year it was 7.5. In five seasons with the Athletics, Blanton struck out 5.1 batters per nine innings, but in his year-and-a-half with the Phillies it has risen to 7.1

Blanton isn’t merely “eating innings” anymore, he’s mowing down the opposition and garnering actual, legitimate praise that can’t also be applied to a guy like Livan Hernandez.

After recognizing that Blanton has improved to the point that a three-year deal was beneficial to the Phillies, let’s take a look at the amount of money he’ll make from 2010-12.

A comparable pitcher that immediately came to mind for me was Randy Wolf. Before continuing to read, take a second to ask yourself, is Joe Blanton a better pitcher than Randy Wolf? Is he worse? Or are they similar enough that it’s hard to predict which pitcher will fare better in the next three years?

Regardless of what your answer was, keep in mind that Randy Wolf inked a three-year/$30M deal with the Brewers only a month ago. Wolf is 33 and often injured. Blanton is 29 and has made 31 or more starts in all five of his full seasons in the majors. So, even if you consider Wolf slightly better, Blanton being younger and healthier makes this deal more worth it.

(And, for the record, I see Blanton as having more upside than Wolf over the next three years, regardless of money or contracts.)

The current market value for N0. 3 starters like Joe Blanton is roughly $8-10 million a year, evidenced by Wolf’s deal and the 2-year/$16M contract Joel Pineiro signed earlier this week. The Phils were able to keep Blanton around for the low-part of that market value.

It will be easy to complain about Cliff Lee again. But let’s instead applaud the great work by Amaro and Blanton and rejoice at the fact that Halladay, Hamels, Blanton, and Happ are all locked up until at least 2011.

Top Moment No. 2: Ryan Howard Locks Up NLDS Game 4 With a Two-Out Double

Ryan Howard is a dangerous man. At 6’4″ and 230 lbs. with a swooping, left-handed power stroke, it’s easy to see why, but what made Howard that much more fearsome in Colorado last October had nothing to do with a home run or his middle linebacker frame. No, it was what he said that night that should have struck immediate fear into all those in attendance at Coors Field.

“Just get me to the plate, fellas.”

The Phillies had a two games to one lead over Colorado in the NLDS, and had the opportunity to head back to the League Championship Series for the second straight year. The Rockies, however, weren’t exactly rolling over. Heading into the top of the ninth, Colorado held a 4-2 lead with their best reliever, Huston Street, on the mound. The Rockies had taken that lead in the previous half-inning, after Dexter Fowler’s giant leap over Jimmy Rollins led to Cliff Lee’s departure and a three-run surge that sucked the life out of the tri-state area.

“Just get me to the plate, fellas.”

Howard was due up fifth in the top of the ninth, so he’d need a little help from the hitters in front of him. Pinch-hitter Greg Dobbs couldn’t oblige, as he struck out, but Rollins followed up with an infield single to keep hope alive with one out. A ground out from Shane Victorino swapped he and Rollins at first, now with two outs, and things were in the hands of Chase Utley. In a full count, Utley drew a walk, prolonging the inning just far enough for Howard to finally get his shot.

“Just get me to the plate, fellas.”

Pitch one, ball one. A walk would be beneficial, as Jayson Werth stood on deck. Anything but that final out. Pitch two, fouled away. For all his power, Howard’s swing came with a high strikeout price. That certainly wasn’t out of the question, here. Pitch three, ball two. Howard was back in the driver’s seat in a slight hitter’s count. He knew Street didn’t want to be forced to throw a 3-1 fastball, so he’d want to get one over and catch Howard waiting for ball three.

On the twenty-fourth pitch of the inning, Street left a fat, 91 MPH fastball over the plate on the inner half that Howard sent to the wall in right field. Victorino scored on a jog, and Utley, in an act of base running that may forever go unheralded, blazed a path from first to home on a gallop that nearly caught Victorino from behind. It took six seconds from contact to Rockies right fielder Carlos Gonzalez’s throw to the infield, and Utley was already around third, gaining ground on Victorino.

Howard got to the plate once more in that ninth inning, as Jayson Werth followed up with a tie-breaking, bloop single past second base that gave the Phillies the lead. Brad Lidge would close out the ninth, and a new legend was born. The Phils were on their way to defending their National League crown.