Comments on: The Dip: Two Men Enter. One Man Leaves.

By: Tom D

Tom D — Wed, 27 Jan 2010 14:08:40 +0000

Currently Werth is making 7 million a year, and you don’t think he is not making the big money yet. He is probably doing pretty good compared to the rest of the right fielder in the MLB. I say offer him 7.5 or 8 and see what happens.

By: Chuck

Chuck — Tue, 26 Jan 2010 14:40:57 +0000

I would also think that if Utley moved to 1st his career would or could be extended a few years..

because of a less demanding position physically.

By: Don M

Don M — Tue, 26 Jan 2010 14:15:20 +0000

Because if Utley (who is not the best defensive 2b in baseball)… moved to 1st base, he could concentrate more on his hitting, and not worry so much about improving his fielding.. .

Utley is a career .295 hitter, with above average defense.. and he hits for power at a position that doesn’t normally get a lot of HRs

If he moved to 1st base I would imagine his power numbers go up, and his average would approach .333

By: shag beta sigma delta

shag beta sigma delta — Tue, 26 Jan 2010 03:04:11 +0000

Look at this line
Howard(20)+Werth(7)+Lidge(11.5)+Ibanez(11.5)=50 million
If you resign Werth even if it is for 15 million a year(which I think you could extend him for 12-14 million if you do it before he hit the FA Market) then by the time Howard needs to be signed and you pay him 25 million a year(Which I think you can get for 2-3 million dollars cheaper if you extend him before he hit FA) That leaves you 10 Million to sign a closer and if it is Brown in RF. That can be done, especially if you can bring up a closer from the minors. Which we are suppose to have a few that may be ready in 2 to 3 years.
If you can get from the minors a RF and Closer paying them 1-2 million a year, that leaves 8 million increase for Hamels and JRoll.
So how can you not sign both. In this equation is the high end of what you would pay Jayson and Ryan.
I think both would give a home town discount of 1-2 million a year to keep this team together for 3 or 4 more years.
Also why would you not assume that payroll will increase the next couple of years since they have increased it in the last 3 years?
I say sign them both.

By: Nick

Nick — Mon, 25 Jan 2010 23:14:15 +0000

Some of you guys want to move Utley to first

I couldn’t ever see that, and it would destroy his Hall of Fame chances.

Why move the best 2B in baseball (defensively and offensively) to a position where he will become mediocre value?

By: Chuck

Chuck — Mon, 25 Jan 2010 22:50:11 +0000

That’s right, Dipsy…it’s not rocket science….just common sense..some guys benefit more than others…but the model is the same…and the law of averages says it’s gonna work out more than it doesn’t.

By: The Dipsy

The Dipsy — Mon, 25 Jan 2010 22:28:18 +0000

Paul and Badfinger. Its very simple how this freakin works. Stats are impossible and you can’t track it but bear with me. The guy who hits in front of the sicko 50hr/150rbi hitter benefits from the following dynamic:

1) Hitting off a pitcher who would rather give up a solo homer than a 2 run homer, which leads to…………….
2) The pitcher not wanting to walk the hitter in front of the slugger, which leads to…………
3) The pitcher throwing more fastballs. The breaking balls they do throw are more often thrown for strikes as opposed to those that break out of the zone, which are also known as…….
4) Better pitches to hit.
Get it?

Put another way, Chase Utley will consistently hit better with Howard batting in back of him than having someone else in the four hole. Thats baseball. Why do you think managers have been setting lineups that way forever? Cause they’re stupid?

The Dipsy

By: Paul Boye

Paul Boye — Mon, 25 Jan 2010 20:28:34 +0000

Agree with Badfinger. Lineup protection is assumed and often hollow; there’s no real evidence to suggest that one quality of hitter has any more a positive or negative effect on the hitters around him than any other.

By: Badfinger

Badfinger — Mon, 25 Jan 2010 20:22:41 +0000

Crediting Ryan Howard for adding points to other people’s batting average is extremely disingenuous. The only person he can add or subtract batting average from is himself. They also play different positions. Howard plays average-at-best defense at the easiest defensive position. Werth doesn’t play a premium position, but the fact that he is above average offensively AND defensively boosts his value significantly. It’s a hard decision, but it’s even harder if people believe slanted arguments like that.

Re: your trade- It’s laughable to think that the nationals would trade for overpaid 30+yo Howard for brilliant defensively, young, cost-controlled Zimmerman.

By: beta sigma shag

beta sigma shag — Mon, 25 Jan 2010 19:44:50 +0000

Dipsy you actually shocked me. I have not read the other comments, because I am running late, but from the slant on your intro to each player, it seem bias towards Jayson. If that was on purpose, congrats, great writing.
I tend to agree with you if you can only have one, you take Howard, IMO it is a no brainer. He will have to take a home town discount, of about 2 or 3 million a year I think. Say 4 years 87-90 million instead of 4 years 100 million.
But being the eternal optimist I think you can afford to pay Ryan 23 million a year, and Jayson 12-14 million a year.
I have said before, and I do not know it can happens, but, sit them down and say what will you two take to stay in Philadelphia, and do you both want to stay here.
I also hate it when 4 years 13 or 14 million a year is not considered big money contract. If you figure all bonuses and playoff bonuses, that is almost 60 million a over 4 years. I think anybodies family would be pretty set for life after that. I also think if Ryan wants to stay, he would be willing to give a bigger home town discount because he would already have made over 50 million in his career.

By: Chuck

Chuck — Mon, 25 Jan 2010 19:04:54 +0000

You’re preachin’ to the choir with me Bob in Bucks…

And I love Ryan Howard…i just think that long-term Werth is better for this team.

By: Bob in Bucks

Bob in Bucks — Mon, 25 Jan 2010 18:58:21 +0000

First of all I want to see some more from Werth. See if he can hold up against the RHP. But in general I would favor keeping Werth and using the saved money to get a good 3B – Polanco moves to second – Utley to first. Brown to replace Raul.
Howard is one-dimensional as stated (he changed in 07 when they started to shift on him – go back and check it out – they did not shift on him in 06. I would rather have the ball in play than the choice of HR/BB/K (lots of K!).
Howard is a great player but if it comes down to one or the other I say go with Werth – his skill set will last longer. Howard will end up DH in the AL in any case – that fits his profile.

By: The Dipsy

The Dipsy — Mon, 25 Jan 2010 17:07:41 +0000

hahahahahahah. I have a friend named Adam Zimmerman. Ryan…excuse me. Thats funny.

The Dipsy

By: The Second John

The Second John — Mon, 25 Jan 2010 16:18:45 +0000

Phila. Raider, as much as no fan wants their team to have a budget, you have to accept the fact that there WILL be a budget, and most likely, the franchise will have to choose between Ryan Howard.

Dipsy, that’s not a bad idea, but will the Nats take on Howard’s salary?

By: Phylan

Phylan — Mon, 25 Jan 2010 15:25:55 +0000

Does that mean the Nats will have found a way to combine Adam Dunn and Ryan Zimmerman? Because sign that player immediately, Rube.

By: Chuck

Chuck — Mon, 25 Jan 2010 12:56:34 +0000

I have to agree with Dipsy (wow..mark this date…we agree on something!!)…

…Polanco is one of those kind of players that’s extremely versatile…

He can obviously play second…and I’m sure could play first ..2012…that dreaded 3rd year that everyone has been bitching about…

IF you had to choose…and I believe that Ruben does….then Werth would be my first choice as well.

As I said … Ryan Howard is not $8-10 million more valuable than Jayson Werth…cause that’s probably the yearly difference in what their new salaries will look like.

By: The Dipsy

The Dipsy — Mon, 25 Jan 2010 12:07:36 +0000

My dream scenario if Werth gets resigned and not Howard: Move Utley or Polanco to first, the other gus plays 2B and do what you can to get Adam Zimmerman with a package involving Howard. Thats my plan.

The Dipsy

By: j reed

j reed — Mon, 25 Jan 2010 04:35:42 +0000

matt – by objective are you speaking in terms of “frequentist” or “bayesian” analysis?

By: Corey Seidman

Corey Seidman — Mon, 25 Jan 2010 03:58:29 +0000

Oh, Matt, you’re definitely right about that point. Howard doesn’t add .20 points to Utley or .10 to Werth. That was a clear example of hyperbole.

By: mattjg

mattjg — Mon, 25 Jan 2010 03:36:39 +0000

Corey, I posted a few links, but for some reason that comment is awaiting moderation (I guess because it has links?).

The studies have been done in a variety of ways, including comparing the stats of a player when he hits in front of a slugger with the stats of the same player when he hits somewhere else the lineup, in front of a lesser player. The studies all have some flaws, but the takeaway is that protection, if it exists, is a lot less important than a lot of people believe. My original point was only that there is no way that Howard boosts Utley’s and Werth’s BA’s by .20 and .10 respectively. Howard may protect them to some extent (but then again, Werth would likely protect hitters in front of him–albeit to a lesser extent–since he’s no slouch) but both Utley and Werth are outstanding hitters on their own and their drop-off in production (if any) would not be significant without Howard in the lineup.