What is Werth Really Worth?
Posted by Pat Gallen, Sun, January 03, 2010 08:38 PM | Comments: 134
Analysis, Opinion, Posts
In the offseason, there is ample time to talk about what-ifs and could-be’s. There are several scenarios looming for the Phillies that will shape their franchise for the next few years. One of the more important issues already building steam is the contract status of Jayson Werth.
Before the 2009 season, the Phillies inked Werth to a two-year, $9 million contract, with a $1 million signing bonus. It was a solid deal for a player who had lost some of his prime to a devastating wrist injury. The Phillies took on a blossoming outfielder with loads of potential and the move has worked wonders for both sides. Now, the pay increase will be even more substantial.
Every Phils fan is aware of the career season Werth put together in ’09, following a breakout 2008, which opened many eyes around the baseball community. Add to that the Jason Bay (and soon to be Matt Holliday) factor, and the situation becomes hairy.
The question then becomes: what exactly is market value for a power-hitting corner outfielder with plus speed and a great arm that plays solid defense and has an all-star appearance on his resume? The 31-year old Bay signed with the New York Mets for four-years, $64 million just last week, and 29-year old Matt Holliday will be looking for something north of that figure from his next suitor. With Werth falling in the same age bracket, he too will attempt to capitalize on what has been an excellent three-season run in Philly.
The Numbers Never Lie
Jayson Werth has been fantastic since Pat Gillick scooped him up in free agency after two years (plus a third lost to injury in 2006) in Los Angeles. But when you put him up against Bay and Holliday, his numbers pale in comparison.
Bay has spent seven seasons in the majors, becoming one of the premier sluggers in all of the game. Unfortunately for him, he toiled in relative obscurity in Pittsburgh for nearly six years, surrounded by a veritable who’s who of average-to-below-average players. Bay has still managed to average 32 home runs and 107 RBI, while hitting .280 per 162 games over those seven seasons. His .896 OPS and 11 steals prove he is also a well-rounded player in his own right.
Holliday has been even more impressive over the life of his career, averaging .318/28/112 per 162 games. His on-base and slugging percentages are .387 and .545, respectively, over that same time period. Some of that could be due to the effect of Coors Field, where Holliday spent his first five seasons, before being dealt to Oakland, and then, St. Louis.
Werth doesn’t quite have the same statistical history, but as Scott Lauber of the News Journal put it, he is a “late bloomer” due to his injuries. In his three season in Philadelphia, Werth has been solid, averaging 24/82, adjusted to 162 games. His .827 OPS rates much lower than both Bay and Holliday, but his wheels make up for that disparity somewhat, proven by his 20 stolen bases in back to back seasons. The other two outfielders have, in the past, used their speed as a compliment to their offensive prowess, but both have stopped running with consistency recently.
One thing that sets Werth apart from the others is his championship ring. Holliday has been to the World Series, but his 2007 Rockies were swept by Boston. Bay has been to the playoffs just one time, this past season, with the Red Sox. Still, Werth has not been the best among his peers for a lengthy period. Bay and Holliday have each been to three all-star games and have combined for four silver slugger awards, accomplishing a myriad of honors before Werth was able to make his mark.
Figuring out the Figures
After sifting through the statistical analysis, in the end, it comes down to the dollar amount. Bay received a $64 million contract –which could reach $80 million with vesting clauses – a seemingly fair market value. Holliday is reportedly looking for nine digits from anyone who will pay it, although right now the Cardinals seem to have the lead for his services. Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports is guessing he will net a six-year contract in the $110 million neighborhood.
Free Agent contracts given: outfielders
-Jason Bay, 2009: 4 years/$64 million
-Juan Rivera, 2008: 3/12
-Jose Guillen, 2007: 3/36
-Aaron Rowand, 2007: 5/60
-Torii Hunter, 2007: 5/90, 2003: 4/32
-Carlos Lee, 2006: 6/100
-Alfonso Soriano, 2006: 8/136
-JD Drew, 2006: 5/70
It’s safe to say Jayson Werth won’t get that kind of scratch in his next deal, but it will nonetheless be a substantial figure. How will he and his agent proceed? Will Werth take slightly less to try and keep together a possible dynasty? Or, will he simply go for the most money? Seeing the contracts being doled out to a player of Werth’s caliber, plus the contracts given to other star players over the past few seasons, an educated guess on the value of the deal would be somewhere in the four-year, $52-56 million range.
Players with a resume comparable to Werth are hard to come by, but there are a few guys that come close regarding age, track-record, and service time. Following the 2007 season, our old buddy Aaron Rowand hit free agency carrying a 27-homer, 89 RBI campaign with the Phillies. Prior to that, Rowand had one strong season with the White Sox, but the San Francisco Giants found it necessary to give the then 29-year old a five-year, $60 million deal. The Phillies found that to be an outrageous amount and would not get into a bidding war for a good (not great) offensive player with very good D.
Torii Hunter was a similar case before the 2003 season began. He posted back-to-back 20/90 seasons in ’01 and ’02 for the Twins, parlaying that into a four-year, $32 million at age 27. His defense is certainly top notch, and he had similar numbers to Werth at the time of that contract. Leave room for inflation on Hunter’s first big pact, in addition to the Bay deal, and Werth is likely to get something in the $50 million area.
Gone are the days of Alfonso Soriano (8/136) and Carlos Lee (6/100) type contracts that hog-tie the team for years and years. Look at how teams are now functioning. Adam Dunn received a two-year deal at $20 million prior to 2008. Bobby Abreu landed just a one-year commitment from the Los Angeles Angels worth only $5 million. Fast forward to the Bay contract and its apparent that teams will not cave due to the financial instability around baseball.
Werth will get his, but will it approach the Bay contract he netted from New York? He might get close should he come back with yet another 30-home run, 20-steal season. The other concern is the Phillies payroll. Will they have adequate payroll flexibility next offseason to offer Werth such a deal?
The 2011 Phillies already have over $111 million locked up to 13 players, with Jimmy Rollins’ $8.5 million option included. So, the final query may end up being: Jayson Werth or Shane Victorino? But that’s another question for another day.
Posts: 0 Dudley Monk
Werth’s real value will be determined by what he does this year. He is certainly worth at least $8 million a year but will probably get much more on the open market.
Posted: 08:53 PM on January 3, 2010
Posts: 0 The Dipsy
Well, I think Jason is a helluva player. He is permitted to play a supporting role with the Phils because of all the other great players around him. Can he be the Big Ragu somewhere else? I don’t know. One thing is for sure and that is the economy has changed. I don’t think anyone will give Jason big money for 5-6 years because he is 31. He also doesn’t have that much of a track record. He can disappear against righties. If he hits the market after another good year next year some team, and it only takes one, can sign him to crazy money. My number for another team to sign him: 4y/50m. For us to sign him: 3/35.
The Dipsy
Posted: 09:00 PM on January 3, 2010
Posts: 0 hotstove.com / archive » Sunday Night Hot Stove Notes: Mets, Cardinals, Yankees, Twins, Giants, more
[...] Phillies Blog, PhilliesNation.com takes a look at how much money Jayson Werth may be worth on the free agent market (which he will be on next [...]
Posted: 09:01 PM on January 3, 2010
Posts: 1317 Pat Gallen
Wow, Dipsy. You think he’ll come that cheap assuming he puts up another similar season? Not sure he will give that much of a hometown discount, but I sure hope youre right.
Posted: 09:18 PM on January 3, 2010
Posts: 0 Ryan Hoffman
Clearly the point of this article is to compare Werth to Bay and Holliday and what we should expect him to seek next year if he puts up similar numbers that he has over the past 2 years.
Of course (as this site always seems to do) you completely ignored the fact that, while yes Bay is slightly better with the bat than JDub, he throws all of that away and more by being one of the 5 worst defenders in baseball. If we went over the 2008-2009, Werth is the better player, but Bay has the long standing of being offensively in a high tier (save for a hilariously bad 2007) and Werth has only 2 (and after next it will be obvi be 3) of real playing time.
Jayson Werth is basically a second-tier Matt Holliday, which is a pretty damn good baseball player. If we expect MH to get anywhere from 90 at the lowest to 120 at the most over 5-7 years, Werth should get about 60-75% of that if he puts up another solid season and the economy doesn’t go farther down the drain (which it doesn’t seem it will.
In 2011, going into his age 32 season, lets assume he is going to be worth about 55-65 mil over that time if he continues on his trend line and about 20 if he blows it and about 80-90 if he rocks the shit. I would think something like a 4 yr, 48 million contract with a $12 mil option for a 5th year with a 2 mil buyout. If the Phillies tried to sign him this season I could see him signing something around a 3 yr, 39 mil contract with a $11 mil option or $1 buyout
Posted: 09:27 PM on January 3, 2010
Posts: 0 betsy evans
werth needs to be resigned. its bad enough lee is gone…yes, we got halladay…but it seems they want to do away with the old team and create a new one. im cool with change…but werth NEEDS to stay
Posted: 09:33 PM on January 3, 2010
Posts: 0 mike mike
I believe werth gets more than bay better outfielder, faster as much or more power good arm bay is better average.i think he gets 5 year 17 0r 18 a year.
Posted: 09:36 PM on January 3, 2010
Posts: 0 shag beta sigma delta
I know it probably does not matter, but since the Phillies gave him his shot, and the question is can he be the main cog in an offense. With that out there, he should give a decent discount to the Phillies especially if they go far in the Playoffs in’10. Just to try and keep this team together. I know I probably live in fantasy land, where players have a conection to a specific team, but I like to think that way.
I think if you can sign him for 4 years under 15 million a year, could that be done, and would he take that. I know most of you see Howard walking after his contract is up. But again in my fantasy life they would sit down and say here is what we can pay to keep both of you through your primes, do you want to create a dynasty in Philadelphia or do you want to go grab all the money you can get.
In addition will Brown or be ready in ’11 to play full time and produce?
Posted: 09:36 PM on January 3, 2010
Posts: 293 Corey Seidman
Calm down, Ryan Hoffman. No need to say that PN “always” [ignores defense] or whatever your point was with that sentence, because if you visit the site on a regular basis you know that we give defense tremendous value.
Werth will make $60-65M over 4-5 years. He will not give the Phillies a “hometown discount” as some fans are thinking, because this is his one and only opportunity to make big-time money in his major league career. He won’t make huge money when he’s 36. He’ll make it now. Werth won’t pass on that opportunity.
The Phillies probably won’t be able to retain him. It’ll cost too much and involve serious bidding. The best case scenario is that Dominic Brown is ready for opening day next season.
Werth would never sign a 3 year/$39M contract or even a 4 year/$45-48M contract because he is more comparable to Matt Holliday in overall value than he is to Jason Bay. Taking 39-48 million would be an absurd decision for Werth and his agent.
Posted: 09:37 PM on January 3, 2010
Posts: 0 The Great Kara
I believe Jayson Werth is worth much more than he is given. The Phils need him more than ever and they should be paying him big buckaroonies before he finds something better. Who doesn’t love Jayson Werth!?
Posted: 09:38 PM on January 3, 2010
Posts: 0 shag beta sigma delta
Betsey I think we all agree we would like him to stay, but at what cost, can you break the bank for the guy? From all I hear in here is that the Phillies minor leagues are loaded with outfielders so you do let him go, in attempts to keep Howard. or is there no chance Ryan stays past his current contract
Posted: 09:38 PM on January 3, 2010
Posts: 0 The Great Kara
I completely agree with betsy evans
Posted: 09:39 PM on January 3, 2010
Posts: 0 Phillie South
Where will Dominic Brown play?
Posted: 09:41 PM on January 3, 2010
Posts: 0 betsy evans
thanks kara….
he is BEYOND my favorite player. shoot, i have the blanket that was the stadium giveaway and use it daily! i just got new werth gear for *10 and tix for quite a few games. used to follow him when he was in minors here in syracuse, ny … and will always love him. he just looks best in red and white pinstripes!
Posted: 09:43 PM on January 3, 2010
Posts: 0 shag beta sigma delta
corey you are saying that there is no way he gives the Phillies a discount after reviving his career. You believe all athletes are so egotistical. You are telling me 12-13 million is not big money? He and the next few generations of Wreth’s would not be pretty set up? Again I know I have my dreams that players care more about things then money. Now I am not comparing the two but how much does Jeter make, and how much more could he have made if he went through FA after 5 or 6 years with the Yankees, did he not give them a discount? I really do not know I am just asking.
You do not think any athlete out there, say the Phillies win the WS in ’10, that would say I can be part of something special, so if it cost me 2or 3 million less a year I will take that?
I would like to think that some of them out there would think that way. I mean come on 12 million dollars a year is not starving your family
Posted: 09:46 PM on January 3, 2010
Posts: 293 Corey Seidman
One rational fact we all need to focus on – Jayson Werth has a World Series ring. He may win another one in 2010. He will have ONE, count it, ONE opportunity in his life to make an OBSCENE amount of money.
Regardless of the fact that the Phillies organization helped him resurrect his career, it makes no sense for him to give a “hometown discount.” Hell, the guy whose idea it was to bring him here (Pat Gillick) isn’t even the team’s GM anymore!
Hometown discounts are not uncommon in sports, but I guarantee all of you that if you look at player-by-player, contract-by-contract examples, you’ll see that low-paid athletes tend to cash in situations like this. We’d all love to have Werth back for some lowball price of 35-50 million.
It’s not happening.
Posted: 09:46 PM on January 3, 2010
Posts: 293 Corey Seidman
Shag Beta Sigma Delta – Jeter’s situation is completely different because he’s made a TON of money throughout his career. Jayson Werth hasn’t, by baseball standards.
$13 million is a ton of money, more than any of us can dream of. But having only 3 or 4 years of that guarantee will not be worth it to he, his agent, his family, and his best interests as a logical human being.
If he can sign say a, 4-year/$62M deal, he will take that instead of 3-39 from the Phillies because its 23 million more dollars and one more guaranteed year. If he takes a 3-year contract, he’ll know that he’s not in line for another huge payday at 34-35.
If it were a difference of 2 million dollars, Werth would give the Phillies a hometown discount. But were not talking about a few mil here.
Posted: 09:49 PM on January 3, 2010
Posts: 1317 Pat Gallen
Ryan: Pretty sure defense was not completely ignored in this post and I wasnt going to write a 2,000 word essay.
Bay is a sub-par defender, but makes up for it with his offensive prowess. He knocked in 119 runs in Boston in a very good lineup. Might not do the same in NY, but to me, he was worth the 4/64 he was given. I’d still like to think the 4/52-56 I guessed here is close. Werth only has 2 steady seasons under his belt. Lets hope he signs for less though. And lets hope that helps keep Shane too.
Posted: 09:50 PM on January 3, 2010
Posts: 0 betsy evans
shaq…i would be willing to pay extra at the ballpark to see it go to his salary. i can see the sox losing bay due to an extra tax…but is our budget REALLY that close to expiring? i mean, werth performed BETTER than howard. i dont want to see him go. if the stadium raised prices on tix (cuz the beer is already WAY too expensive) then there could be a cushion. or we could ditch moyer…what is he able to do for us this year anyways? heard a rumor stairs may not be back…so there is extra money there if that is true (which would stink…but…..) werth will be worth the investment. that i believe.
Posted: 09:50 PM on January 3, 2010
Posts: 0 shag beta sigma delta
off topic but can the Phillies pay Wreth 15 million/yr and Howard 25 million/yr and keep Hamels, Utley, JRoll, and with Doc but a rotation out there and a bull pen?
Posted: 09:51 PM on January 3, 2010
Posts: 0 shag beta sigma delta
Again I ask 13-15 million is not big money? I mean I want to keep him here to for a 4 or 5 more years, but at what expense. I think from what I hear there are quite a few outfielders in the system, I know Raul only has 2 years left to play, and if Shane and Wreth are lost can we replace them. And if it comes down to it I feel Vic should be the one you low ball, not Wreth. But I can not see paying him 18-20 million a year, that would really strap us for cash for the near future.
Posted: 09:55 PM on January 3, 2010
Posts: 293 Corey Seidman
Out of Werth and Victorino, only one will stay unless the Phillies brass magically decides that for this period of time, they’ll be willing to spend 160-175 million on payroll per year.
If Werth re-signs the team will be financially crippled and forced to employ multiple below-average starting pitchers.
Pat – Werth only has two years of success behind him, but if he has another Werth-like year, that will be THREE consecutive successful years, giving other GMs and scouts ample room to work with. Plus, lets not forget he was first round pick and a highly touted prospect once upon a time, not a guy whose merely gotten lucky.
He’s not like Ryan Ludwick, a career minor league/Four-A player who finally turned it around after years of mediocrity. He’s a tremendous talent who had to work through injuries and a lack of opportunities.
Posted: 09:57 PM on January 3, 2010
Posts: 0 The Dipsy
Jason Werth, best case scenario, will have two really good seasons at the age of 32. Thats old. He’s not had a great career. Sure he’s a late bloomer. I see him as a 12-13m guy. He won’t get 5 years either. That puts him at 37. I don’t know how the Phils would approach this since basically everyone on their team is a free agent after 2011. Howard will want 5/130. Can you really let Jimmy go if he takes a like a 4y/36m contract? It all hinges on Howard. 3 years/35 million. Lets not forget he’s gotta have a good year this year also. Would rather gave Werth than Bay.
The Dipsy
Posted: 09:57 PM on January 3, 2010
Posts: 1317 Pat Gallen
Let me ask this: would it be more beneficial for Werth to try and take a 3 year deal instead of maybe a 5 year contract? That way, when he turns 35, he would be able to better get another longer-term deal, rather than be 37 and try to do the same?
Posted: 09:59 PM on January 3, 2010
Posts: 0 Don M
Betsy … you know he’s married, with children and all right? stalker..
Werth is leaving 1 year at $15 Million on the table to stay in Philadelphia.. This is his one chance at a CAREER CONTRACT .. and he’ll take the most money to play for a contender
the teams interested in him, that can afford to pay him will be the same usual list.. Boston, Philly, NYM, NYY, Baltimore, LA Dodgers, St. Louis or Chicago, etc..
Would he take a discount to play here if it was between us and Pittsburgh? Probably.. but contending teams realize how valuable he can be.. so he’ll cost about 4 years, $50 M in my opinion
…
Also Werth and Rollins are my two favorite players. … neither one of them is anywhere near as good as Ryan Howard. Howard is a Hall of Fame player..
Posted: 10:04 PM on January 3, 2010
Posts: 0 Don M
No.. because you want as much guaranteed money as possible.. if Werth leaves money on the table, and breaks his legs .. he’ll never get another contract again
he’ll be looking to set his family up for life… like Aaron Rowand did
Posted: 10:05 PM on January 3, 2010
Posts: 293 Corey Seidman
Interesting question, Pat. I’ll give you the answer I’d give my client if he asked me, since representing athletes is my aspiration and what I’m in school for….
“You take the best offer you can get right now. You take the four- or five-year deal over the three-year deal because ANYTHING can happen between now and three years from now. If you develop chronic knee pain, you’ll feel foolish for leaving the extra money and years on the table. And if you play well enough over the next 4/5 years, you’ll still be in for another okay payday at age 36-37. You don’t walk away from guaranteed money.”
Posted: 10:08 PM on January 3, 2010
Posts: 293 Corey Seidman
Well put, Don M. Saw your response after I wrote mine.
Posted: 10:09 PM on January 3, 2010
Posts: 0 David
I think its nuts that anyone thinks Werth has earned more than 10 mill a year for more than 4 years at this point. He has NEVER had 100 rbi (came close this past year but no cigar). He is a career .265 hitter who struck out 156 times last year. He’s never scored 100 runs. He has topped out at 20 sb, which is pretty good for a guy with some pop, but its not like hes a 40/40 guy, or even a 30/30 guy. Other than last year, his career high for extra base hits in a season was 43 in 2008. Unless he hits about 35 hr with 100 rbi and a .280 ba, I just can’t see how he’s worth more than 10-12 mill TOPS per year. Losing him would hurt, but so would paying him 12 mill to produce his career per 162 game avg of 24 hr, 84 rbi, and .265. He’s no spring chicken. No reason to think he’s going to get all that much better. Id let him walk, take the draft pick compensation, and invest the money elsewhere.
Posted: 10:11 PM on January 3, 2010
Posts: 293 Corey Seidman
David — RBI is an extremely silly stat to use when evaluating a free agent, because RBI opportunities differ with different teams. Werth IS a “100-RBI guy,” but unfortunately for him, he bats after Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and sometimes, Raul Ibanez. If the guys ahead of him weren’t driving in 100-150 runs per year, he’d have a better opportunity.
Werth would be a third or fourth batter on MANY teams. RBI translate in various ways depending on the team. And whether or not you think he’s worth more than 10-12 million per year, the contracts signed by many comparable players at his position seem to say otherwise.
Posted: 10:17 PM on January 3, 2010
Posts: 0 David
Hitting in a great lineup works both ways though. If he’s playing for the S.F. giants, he may never have anyone on base to knock in. He also would have to hit the ball farther in most other stadiums to get as many HR’s. Do you really think he’s a star? Do you really think that if Utley and Howard were out that he could anchor the middle of that lineup? I don’t see it. I see a guy who has gotten better since getting here. He hits home runs in a home run park. He doesnt hit for avg at all. He strikes out alot in a great lineup and doesnt drive in a ton of runs on a team that has people on base constantly. If that is worth more than 10-12 to you, then I’m glad your not the phils gm.
Posted: 10:22 PM on January 3, 2010
Posts: 0 Brian Sr. of CO
well first, Lee is gone, I think we need to get over it. Why are people acting like Lee is better than Halladay? Sure I wish we had both, but we dont. As for Werth, I honestly dont think its stupid to think about who his Agent is. His Agent is memory serves correct is Scott Boras (ignorrant punk if you ask me) who is notorious for getting MEGA deals for his clients.
Posted: 10:27 PM on January 3, 2010
Posts: 0 David
He probably will get a big deal. And if he does, I wish him well. One thing that might keep his contract from exploding is the fact that there are a lot of good players who will be FA next year. Perhaps because of this, there wont be as much money for everyone and guys in the second tier will have to take less than the 14-16 mill per year that some people think Werth should get.
Posted: 10:31 PM on January 3, 2010
Posts: 293 Corey Seidman
David – I do believe that Jayson Werth would hit well and drive in 100+ runs on a team as offensively inept as the Giants because he is a very good hitter…and you neglect to mention his great defense (he was among the ML leaders in outfield assists) and the fact that he runs very well, ESPECIALLY for a corner outfielder.
Far less deserving players have gotten far more than 10-12 per year.
Posted: 10:31 PM on January 3, 2010
Posts: 0 Griffin
I can’t see the Phils being able to afford Werth. That’s why I was hoping Taylor would be able to take over in 2011.
Posted: 10:33 PM on January 3, 2010
Posts: 0 Brian Sr. of CO
David, I agree that he really isnt a star to anchor the middle of a quality line-up, however, his numbers are not so scewed that he needs to play in a “home run park”. Werth only has 6 more home runs at CBP than away. 21 at home, 13 on the road.
Posted: 10:37 PM on January 3, 2010
Posts: 0 David
Werth has a cannon for an arm. There is no denying that. He gets assists and thats great. But he’s not the best RF defensively in the league, or even his own division. Francour had more assists and only 1 error while Werth had 4 errors. He is NOT a very good hitter. What stat supports that claim? His .265 career BA? his 156 k’s? He is a slugger, not a good hitter. I hate that everyone throws around the term good hitter for any guy who gets to 30 hr. Power does not = good hitter. I’m sure that less deserving players have gotten over 12 million per year. There have been alot of bad contracts in baseball. All I’m saying is that at this point, if Werth got more than that amount, he would be another example of an overpaid player. He’s good, but hes not that good.
Posted: 10:46 PM on January 3, 2010
Posts: 0 David
Brian, your right that Werth doesn’t NEED to be at CBP to hit HR. He could be a power guy in a bunch of places. But theres a big difference in perception and reality of a guy who hits 36 HR to a guy who hits 30. If you take away the difference between home and away, he’d be a 30 hr guy. Plus his RBI numbers would go down with the fewer HR as well. I think hes a good player and not a chump or anything. But I think people are overvaluing him based on one season of really good power numbers and outfield assists. He hasnt even done either of those for more than 1-2 seasons and he has never hit for avg in his career.
Posted: 10:52 PM on January 3, 2010
Posts: 0 George
I think contracts are not just a matter of what a player is worth, but what he is worth to a particular team at a particular time. Bay and Holliday are not the greatest outfielders on the planet, but are getting big contracts partly because this year there aren’t a lot of outfielders available, and several teams need them. It’s called “supply and demand.”
Discussing Werth this early might be TOO early. He could have a great year, and demand more. He could have a bad year, and be just another available player. Next season, there will be two teams no longer in need, because they will have signed Bay and Holliday. There may be more free agents available, or teams that will use a top prospect instead of an expensive free agent. We just don’t know.
If Werth does have a great year, and if there’s any outfield needs elsewhere (here, I’ll point out that Werth is not just a corner outfielder, but also plays center well) he’ll definitely be looking for a big contract. Still, there is the possibility he could get one from the Phils, provided it’s heavily backloaded. The team could probably afford say, $9 million for the first year, then could go to $15-16 the following year, and maybe slightly more for the remaining years, when so many other’s contracts will come off the books. Players have agreed to those kinds of contracts before.
My own feeling is that Brown will be used to replace Ibanez, but Gose won’t be ready to replace anyone yet. So I think the Phils will make a pretty big effort to keep Werth. That is, if he continues in 2010 as he did in 2009.
Posted: 11:20 PM on January 3, 2010
Posts: 0 Aaron
Lets see how he does this upcoming season and then we will have a good idea of what he is worth.
Posted: 11:21 PM on January 3, 2010
Posts: 0 George
Anyone who thinks Francouer is a better defensive outfielder than Werth because he made fewer errors has not seen Francouer play. Part of why the Braves dumped him was his loss of range this year. I saw several Braves games, and “Frenchy” totally stunk. People say Werth looks asleep sometimes; well, Francouer looks asleep ALL the time.
He does have a great arm, though.
Posted: 11:27 PM on January 3, 2010
Posts: 0 Brian Sr. of CO
George has a good point. Francouer doesnt have the range. In some cases Werth has an error charged even though some other players cant even get to the ball. If it were possible to judge Francouer and Werth on the same EXACT ball in the same locations and them pursuing them from the same place, Werth I believe would get to more balls in play then Francouer would, and more than likely in some cases, get the ball enough to almost catch it, but may get an error because maybe it bounced off his glove, or maybe made a bad throw because he was in bad position to throw the ball after making a catch (I think that one actually happened in Lidges first blown save in 09, not sure). Basically I would rather have Werth over Francouer any day of the week and twice on Sunday.
Posted: 11:44 PM on January 3, 2010
Posts: 0 rjb360
IMHO, trading Taylor is going to wind up being the biggest mistake of the Amaro era.
Posted: 12:54 AM on January 4, 2010
Posts: 0 Aaron
really rjb? i can see halladay winning more games in the next 5 years for the phillies than taylor would had.
Posted: 01:29 AM on January 4, 2010
Posts: 0 Keith E
As the saying in our house goes, “What’s a VJJ Werth? Priceless!”
This guy is my favorite Phillie. Our seats are in right field and he has a nice connection with the phans there.
Swing Moyer’s money over to J and all is well with the universe.
GO PHILS!!!
Posted: 07:18 AM on January 4, 2010
Posts: 1317 Pat Gallen
I agree that it might be somewhat premature, but you know this is a hot topic NOW. This will only build steam throughout the season.
Posted: 08:59 AM on January 4, 2010
Posts: 0 Bob in Bucks
Werth is a solid ballplayer but he is not in the same league as the players mentioned. If he can get that kind of money the Phillies should pass and bring on Dominic Brown. We need to focus more on pitching. As for those who think he is not replaceable I remember another RH outfielder who left recently. Or can’t you remember him or what he did in 2009?
Players come and go and I would be glad if Werth stayed but not for the money being thrown around here. We will need it to keep some of the others.
Posted: 09:03 AM on January 4, 2010
Posts: 0 Don M
.265 career batting average
.360 career on base %
means that he is a “good hitter” … he’s got speed, power, works pitchers, takes walks, hits mistakes..
Werth is so much better all around than Jeff Franceur its not even funny.. people were also trying to compare Werth to Ryan Church last year before the season started
Next year, the OF Free Agents are:
Carl Crawford, Brad Hawpe, Jose Guillen, Jayson Werth, Magglio Ordonez, Andruw Jones, Eric Byrnes, Manny Ramirez .. and others
After Carl Crawford, I would list Werth as the best All-Around player from that list.. and he won’t cost $20 M like Manny, or be limited to a DH role like Magglio
Posted: 09:46 AM on January 4, 2010
Posts: 0 Don M
Michael Taylor won’t have half the career of jayson werth
Domonic Brown is the player to watch, the player we wanted to keep, and the future of the Phillies
Posted: 09:49 AM on January 4, 2010
Posts: 0 marty
With so much talked about with Lee’s contract status going forward this is the first blog/article I have seen on Werth. For some reason it has received little attention. Kudos to you for bringing it up. If the Phils can’t extend Werth, and I believe your predicted numbers are accurate, then why is he still here if Lee is gone in a similar predicament. Taylor could have stepped in for him in 2011 or earlier and we could have gotten some prospects or more for Werth. Now it is possible he will just walk and we have no one to take over for him. Brown will likely need to replace Ibanex in 2012. We may be forced to sign a piece of trash to play RF in 2011.
Posted: 10:17 AM on January 4, 2010