What is Werth Really Worth?
Posted by Pat Gallen, Sun, January 03, 2010 08:38 PM | Comments: 134
Analysis, Opinion, Posts
In the offseason, there is ample time to talk about what-ifs and could-be’s. There are several scenarios looming for the Phillies that will shape their franchise for the next few years. One of the more important issues already building steam is the contract status of Jayson Werth.
Before the 2009 season, the Phillies inked Werth to a two-year, $9 million contract, with a $1 million signing bonus. It was a solid deal for a player who had lost some of his prime to a devastating wrist injury. The Phillies took on a blossoming outfielder with loads of potential and the move has worked wonders for both sides. Now, the pay increase will be even more substantial.
Every Phils fan is aware of the career season Werth put together in ’09, following a breakout 2008, which opened many eyes around the baseball community. Add to that the Jason Bay (and soon to be Matt Holliday) factor, and the situation becomes hairy.
The question then becomes: what exactly is market value for a power-hitting corner outfielder with plus speed and a great arm that plays solid defense and has an all-star appearance on his resume? The 31-year old Bay signed with the New York Mets for four-years, $64 million just last week, and 29-year old Matt Holliday will be looking for something north of that figure from his next suitor. With Werth falling in the same age bracket, he too will attempt to capitalize on what has been an excellent three-season run in Philly.
The Numbers Never Lie
Jayson Werth has been fantastic since Pat Gillick scooped him up in free agency after two years (plus a third lost to injury in 2006) in Los Angeles. But when you put him up against Bay and Holliday, his numbers pale in comparison.
Bay has spent seven seasons in the majors, becoming one of the premier sluggers in all of the game. Unfortunately for him, he toiled in relative obscurity in Pittsburgh for nearly six years, surrounded by a veritable who’s who of average-to-below-average players. Bay has still managed to average 32 home runs and 107 RBI, while hitting .280 per 162 games over those seven seasons. His .896 OPS and 11 steals prove he is also a well-rounded player in his own right.
Holliday has been even more impressive over the life of his career, averaging .318/28/112 per 162 games. His on-base and slugging percentages are .387 and .545, respectively, over that same time period. Some of that could be due to the effect of Coors Field, where Holliday spent his first five seasons, before being dealt to Oakland, and then, St. Louis.
Werth doesn’t quite have the same statistical history, but as Scott Lauber of the News Journal put it, he is a “late bloomer” due to his injuries. In his three season in Philadelphia, Werth has been solid, averaging 24/82, adjusted to 162 games. His .827 OPS rates much lower than both Bay and Holliday, but his wheels make up for that disparity somewhat, proven by his 20 stolen bases in back to back seasons. The other two outfielders have, in the past, used their speed as a compliment to their offensive prowess, but both have stopped running with consistency recently.
One thing that sets Werth apart from the others is his championship ring. Holliday has been to the World Series, but his 2007 Rockies were swept by Boston. Bay has been to the playoffs just one time, this past season, with the Red Sox. Still, Werth has not been the best among his peers for a lengthy period. Bay and Holliday have each been to three all-star games and have combined for four silver slugger awards, accomplishing a myriad of honors before Werth was able to make his mark.
Figuring out the Figures
After sifting through the statistical analysis, in the end, it comes down to the dollar amount. Bay received a $64 million contract –which could reach $80 million with vesting clauses – a seemingly fair market value. Holliday is reportedly looking for nine digits from anyone who will pay it, although right now the Cardinals seem to have the lead for his services. Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports is guessing he will net a six-year contract in the $110 million neighborhood.
Free Agent contracts given: outfielders
-Jason Bay, 2009: 4 years/$64 million
-Juan Rivera, 2008: 3/12
-Jose Guillen, 2007: 3/36
-Aaron Rowand, 2007: 5/60
-Torii Hunter, 2007: 5/90, 2003: 4/32
-Carlos Lee, 2006: 6/100
-Alfonso Soriano, 2006: 8/136
-JD Drew, 2006: 5/70
It’s safe to say Jayson Werth won’t get that kind of scratch in his next deal, but it will nonetheless be a substantial figure. How will he and his agent proceed? Will Werth take slightly less to try and keep together a possible dynasty? Or, will he simply go for the most money? Seeing the contracts being doled out to a player of Werth’s caliber, plus the contracts given to other star players over the past few seasons, an educated guess on the value of the deal would be somewhere in the four-year, $52-56 million range.
Players with a resume comparable to Werth are hard to come by, but there are a few guys that come close regarding age, track-record, and service time. Following the 2007 season, our old buddy Aaron Rowand hit free agency carrying a 27-homer, 89 RBI campaign with the Phillies. Prior to that, Rowand had one strong season with the White Sox, but the San Francisco Giants found it necessary to give the then 29-year old a five-year, $60 million deal. The Phillies found that to be an outrageous amount and would not get into a bidding war for a good (not great) offensive player with very good D.
Torii Hunter was a similar case before the 2003 season began. He posted back-to-back 20/90 seasons in ’01 and ’02 for the Twins, parlaying that into a four-year, $32 million at age 27. His defense is certainly top notch, and he had similar numbers to Werth at the time of that contract. Leave room for inflation on Hunter’s first big pact, in addition to the Bay deal, and Werth is likely to get something in the $50 million area.
Gone are the days of Alfonso Soriano (8/136) and Carlos Lee (6/100) type contracts that hog-tie the team for years and years. Look at how teams are now functioning. Adam Dunn received a two-year deal at $20 million prior to 2008. Bobby Abreu landed just a one-year commitment from the Los Angeles Angels worth only $5 million. Fast forward to the Bay contract and its apparent that teams will not cave due to the financial instability around baseball.
Werth will get his, but will it approach the Bay contract he netted from New York? He might get close should he come back with yet another 30-home run, 20-steal season. The other concern is the Phillies payroll. Will they have adequate payroll flexibility next offseason to offer Werth such a deal?
The 2011 Phillies already have over $111 million locked up to 13 players, with Jimmy Rollins’ $8.5 million option included. So, the final query may end up being: Jayson Werth or Shane Victorino? But that’s another question for another day.
Posts: 0 Chuck
I agree that the FIRST Lee deal…on paper…and as it played out with Lee’s performance…was a better deal than the second one..but let’s just wait and see what happens..
I understand how you “weighted” Gload and Schneider…but I was just purely looking at it from an “upgrade” perspective..
Moyer…whatever..I don’t HATE the guy like some do on here…but I agree that 2 GUARANTEED years was excessive..it’s over now…let’s hope he can contribute well in 2010.
Posted: 06:07 PM on January 4, 2010
Posts: 0 mikemike
Sorry about that Don. It was the future game, when he misjudge a couple of flyballs. and if you dont’ touch it you dont get a error . He misplayed two balls in the future game I stand corrected on that, plus I have read reports on his outfield play from scouts he doesnt take a direct route to the ball, there are concerns about his outfield play. and if he will ever hit for power. but has the tools, but plenty of guys have the tools, and never develop. I really believe michael taylor will be a nice player, he has overcome the standford swing and improve all phrase of his game. and about victorino I heard on wip two different times he is looking in the ten million dollar range. but thats the only place i heard that so it could be a lie.
Posted: 08:03 PM on January 4, 2010
Posts: 0 mikemike
Don sorry one more point we didnt get value for lee, most agree, your argument that teams wouldnt give us much is not a true statement how do you know that, I would willing to bet after the angels lost lackey they would have given us some nice prospect for lee and if we gave them the opportunity to talk to lee about extension a lot more. Why the rush to trade lee let teams bid on him. We never should have traded him without getting a good infield prospect something this teams needs.
Posted: 08:08 PM on January 4, 2010
Posts: 0 derekcarstairs
I’ve seen Werth called a late bloomer a few times. That’s a misleading term. Werth was starting to make his way with the Dodgers when his wrist was smashed by a 96-MPH AJ Burnett fastball. That one pitch cost Werth essentially two years of his career. Bad luck.
I like Werth a lot as an all-around ballplayer, and I prefer him over both Bay and Holliday. I expect him to do very well over the next four or five years, and I would give him an appropriate extension. Because he doesn’t have the track record, however, Werth would have a difficult time getting a contract equal to what his future value may be. Four years and $50 million sounds about right to me. I might also be willing to give him a couple of vesting options based on performance.
Because I am confident that Werth will have a good year in 2010, the Phils might be able to save some money by signing him to an extension early in the season.
We have Victorino under control through 2011. I think we have enough minor league talent to let him then walk. Our outfield beginning in 2012 would then be Werth, Brown and one or more of Gillies, Gose, James, etc.
Posted: 09:59 PM on January 4, 2010
Posts: 0 Brian Sr. of CO
“Loving your baseball team is a lot like loving your country.” ok Ive seen some far fethced comments, but thats over the top. LOL. I love my country, and I love my baseball team, but they are no where on the same level. Im in the Military and would die for my country, but sorry, I would NOT die for the baseball team I route for.
Posted: 10:09 PM on January 4, 2010
Posts: 0 peasant
Anyone who bothers to research defense and it’s importance to a player’s value will understand why people are saying Werth is a better player than Bay, assuming he continues to play at this level. His value to the Phillies is even greater as he is the single right handed power threat in the lineup. Can’t put a pricetag on making opposing managers think twice before using their LOOGY in the 6th or 7th inning. I have been mulling this over for some time myself and was not surprised to see this topic come up on the blog.
Personally I believe Werth will get a huge payday of at LEAST 4 yrs / 60m. Probably not from the Phillies. It comes down to Howard or Werth, and with Domonic Brown being branded as a franchise right fielder of the future, and no first base prospects anywhere near the majors, you can say your goodbyes to Werth this coming post-season.
Posted: 10:49 PM on January 4, 2010
Posts: 0 WFC010
Werth really seems to like being with the Phillies, and I wouldn’t rule out him taking a discount to stay here. That doesn’t mean it’s going to happen, but it’s at least possible.
Posted: 05:36 AM on January 5, 2010
Posts: 0 Don M
If Ruben Amaro would have waited to longer to trade Cliff Lee … and we had Lee and Halladay on the same roster for even one single day
people would’ve seriously tried to murder him for trading Lee a day later
Angels either don’t have prospects that other teams want.. or don’t have prospects they are willing to deal, because they are always “interested” but have never made any real offers on
Santana, Sabathia, Halladay, Lee, etc..
trading Lee to the Angels for Joe Saunders might sound great.. but then since you would be picking up the price tag on Saunders too, that wouldn’t have worked ..
Maybe lets have a little faith in Amaro since so far he’s managed to improve our team (at least on paper) two years in a row ..
Posted: 09:53 AM on January 5, 2010
Posts: 0 Don M
It depends on what people mean by “discount” if the years are the same, and the phillies are looking to pay him
5 years, $55 Million
instead of someone else offering 5 years, $60 Million … then yea he’d probably stay .. but I’d imagine the Red Sox are going to try to get Werth, especially with Bay gone, and the good chance that Holliday doesn’t sign with them either
Red Sox will come over the top, and their fans love the all-out hustle players just like we do .. Werth would be a cult hero in Boston, probably even more than he is here
but if a team like the Nationals or Pirates is the highest bidder, I’d imagine he would take a few less dollars to stay with a contender
Posted: 10:00 AM on January 5, 2010
Posts: 0 Chuck
So if people were to try to murder Ruben Amaro for having Lee and Halladay on the roster together…..does that mean somebody should “take a knife for him.” ??
…cause I’m not gonna do it either.
_____
Werth in Boston…I can’t stomach the thought of it.
Posted: 10:22 AM on January 5, 2010
Posts: 0 WFC010
Werth in Boston is still a lot easier to stomach than Werth in New York. That said, I really hope something can be worked out to keep him with the Phillies. Considering he’s still fairly young, and not a pitcher… I could see him being offered a 5-6 year deal to keep him in Philly, but it depends how badly Werth wants to get big money.
Posted: 10:29 AM on January 5, 2010
Posts: 0 Don M
Boston, Chicago, LA, its going to be a big market team that can pay him a ton.. becuase I doubt he’ll take extra dollars to play for a crappy team, if the phillies offer is comparable
NYM getting Bay takes them out of the running for Werth (I hope)
Posted: 10:30 AM on January 5, 2010
Posts: 0 Don M
the market is coming back down to earth though..
think about the contracts that Beltran and Soriano got compared to Jason Bay and Matt Holliday
Think about how it used to cost $12 M for a closer.. and this year teams are getting guys closer to the $5 M range
Looks like Madson was very smart to take $12 M over three years last year, instead of becomming a Free Agent this year .. smart move by him, and security for us .. another nice Amaro deal
…
Maybe Werth will be somewhere around $10 M next season instead of $15
so a 5 year, $50 M might not be out of the question.
…
Also somebody commented above about how we rushed to sign Ibanez.. and could’ve had Abreu for $5 M … and they much rather would’ve had Abreu
Short memories must make people forget how Abreu on the Phillies roster never helped us win anything.. and as soon as he was shipped out, Rollins, Utley, Howard became team leaders and we haven’t looked back since!
Posted: 10:34 AM on January 5, 2010
Posts: 0 Chuck
If the Mets were to pay big money for Werth…after doing the same for Bay….then they are more stupid than I already think.
Posted: 10:36 AM on January 5, 2010
Posts: 0 Chuck
Forget the numbers for a minute…if you compare Abreu to Ibanez…no doubt Abreau has good numbers.
But if you look past that and to attitude and being part of a “team”….I’ll take Raul ANY DAY over Bobby Abreu.
Posted: 10:49 AM on January 5, 2010
Posts: 0 psujoe
Just say no to Abreau. I hate a 3 hole hitter looking to walk in the 9th with a man on second base. I’d take Raul any day.
Posted: 11:05 AM on January 5, 2010
Posts: 0 mikemike
I trully believe Werth takes the best deal, no matter what team it is, if chicago offers say 12 and just for arugement state the kc royals offer 14 he take kc offer its security for his family he has the ring, now he wants to have the bling. if he gets 10 million a year, i will run naked down broad street how can you think he will get that little if he is a 270 36 homruns guy ,
Posted: 11:12 AM on January 5, 2010
Posts: 0 Don M
he is from Illinois.. so I wouldn’t be shocked if he took a deal with a midwest team..
but he plays hard, and wants to win …. $8 M more over 5 years to play for a crappy team and be miserable isn’t worth it
in a comparable deal.. he’ll play for the better team.. winning is contagious, and he’s got it good here!
a couple years ago Alphonso Soriano got like $20-something per year… this year Bay got $16.5 M .. so maybe next year, with the economy still low, Werth’s number could be $14 M tops … or maybe $10-12 if we’re lucky
say Kansas City offer him $14 M for 5 years.. $70 M total
and the Phillies offer him $12 M for 5 years.. $60 M total
I wouldn’t be surprised if he stayed.. without a proven track record (due to that freak injury and two missed seasons).. he won’t get $15 .. and depending on the economy, there is a very, very good chance that his number is closer to $10 M than it is to $15 M
we’ll have to wait and see.. but when I thought about the closers that used to easily get $10-12
now getting $6-8 Million … maybe by next year they drop even more?
Posted: 11:41 AM on January 5, 2010
Posts: 0 bebopdeluxe
I think that if Gilles shows that he can be a viable option in CF in 2012 (when we lose cost-control on Victorino), that we will re-sign Werth. It makes a ton more sense to lock in Werth than Victorino – while we have guys on the farm who can potentially project to take Victorino’s place (like Gilles or Gose), I don’t see the RH-power-hitting corner OF guy who picks up Werth. If it turns out that Gose is the guy, and he’s not ready until 2013, then Werth could play CF for a year.
Unless Werth has a simply MASSIVE 2010 (and plays himself into a 5/80 type deal), I think that there is a good chance that they re-sign Werth, take the one-year hit to the payroll that everybody wanted them to take in 2010 in 2011, and then – hopefully – we have an outfield in 2012 of Brown, Gilles and Werth.
Posted: 11:50 AM on January 5, 2010
Posts: 0 Don M
I want to see what Victorino asks for in arbitration … he made $3 M last year… so he’s due to make $5 this year
I’m guessing the Phillies offer $4.5
he’ll ask for $8 .. and hopefully they meet in the middle and everyone is happy
Posted: 12:02 PM on January 5, 2010
Posts: 0 Chuck
Here’s the thing with the economy though….all the so-called “experts” are saying that either the recession is over…or that thin gs are going to turn around in the next 6 months….
So how does that translate into baseball economics?…I know myself and the people that are friends of mine that go to games on a regular basis…we’re not saying that things are better by any stretch..
It would be great if salaries got to a more reaonable level….10-15 million for Jayson Werth might be a “steal”…
Posted: 12:09 PM on January 5, 2010
Posts: 0 psujoe
Baez 2 years 5.25 million. Nice signing by Rube.
Posted: 12:49 PM on January 5, 2010
Posts: 0 psujoe
The Phils will resign werth knowing full well Howard and Lidge are gonzo after 2011. that 32.5 mil will cover two years of Werth and a replacement 1st baseman. A lot more $$$ comes off the books in 2011 as well like Ibanez, Hamels… so let’s hope Brown, Gillies, and whoever are ready.
Posted: 12:53 PM on January 5, 2010
Posts: 0 psujoe
Interesting. Beltre turned down a 3 year $24 million offer from the Phils and A’s. Good job of Rube holding firm.
Posted: 01:19 PM on January 5, 2010
Posts: 0 Don M
to take a $9 M one year deal with Boston??
or did he get more than that.. or more years?
Posted: 01:24 PM on January 5, 2010
Posts: 0 psujoe
1, year and looks like a 2011 option that can escalate to $10 million with 640 plate appearences. 1 million buyout.
Posted: 01:29 PM on January 5, 2010
Posts: 0 Keystone
Domingo Santana and Leandro Castro could turn out to be nice right handed OF’s with some pop in their bats but both players are at least 4 years away. It would be a big loss to lose Werth, there is no good replacement close to the major league level.
Posted: 01:32 PM on January 5, 2010
Posts: 0 Chuck
I’ll tell ya….that Polanco signing is looking better and better….not that it was ever bad.
Posted: 01:50 PM on January 5, 2010
Posts: 0 psujoe
Polanco 3/18 is better than Beltre 3/30
Posted: 02:01 PM on January 5, 2010
Posts: 0 Chuck
My point exactly.
Posted: 02:02 PM on January 5, 2010
Posts: 0 PhxPhilly
If Werth repeats his past season, he should get slightly less than Bay. He huge value to me is that he could be an average CF. Imagine his stats in comparison to other CF’s?!? Hunter, Beltran, … He is certainly better than Rowand.
As far as Amaro’s rating: I have to appreciate his desire to ‘get the guy he wants’ compared to ‘waiting for scraps’. Clubhouse personality seems to be an important aspect of the team and yes winning makes everyone happy.
Abreu’s deal was completely abnormal, just like Kyle Lohse a year earlier, just waited too long and had no options.
I doubt anyone is still reading this post but I wish this offseason Amaro would have kept Lee and pursued other trades to ‘replished the pharm’.
I would have preferred that Tejeda was signed to Polanco because he could be a middle of the order RH bat (after Werth leaves). But with Polanco, we have an perfect #2 hitter making Victorino tradeable. Victorino is at the absolute peak of his value. Gold Glove, All-Star, Playoff spark, and is still affordable. He should have been worth at least the equivalent of Gillies and Ramirez since he is still under control for 2 years (including saving about $7M this year to pay Lee). Werth would become the everyday CF, with Francisco still the backup. Mayberry/Francisco/Gload/Dobbs would have to play RF and bat 7th. Quinten Berry could be called up in case of injury and cover CF.
I think the drop from Victorino to Francisco is smaller than the drop from Lee to Happ (who I would move to the bullpen). And if they wanted they could still trade Blanton for another prospect if they wanted to free up more $ and get another young player. So my 2010 Phillies would be:
Lineup (with Polanco): Rolllins/Polanco/Utley/Howard/Werth/Ibanez/Francisco/Ruiz
(With Tejeda): Rollins/Utley/Werth/Howard/Ibanez/Tejeda/Francisco/Ruiz
Rotation: Halladay/Lee/Hamels/Blanton/Moyer
Pen: Lidge/Madson/Romero/Happ/Condrey/Eyre/(Young Guy: Bastardo, Mathieson, Herndon) If you trade Blanton then Happ to rotation (preferred) then sign bullpen piece like Baez.
Bench: Schnieder (great pickup), Dobbs, Castro (preferred Hairston), Gload (I guess he was okay), Mayberry.
2011: Lose Lee, Werth, (Blanton) though you can arbitrate each and see what they decide. Francisco becomes full time CF, Dom Brown / Mayberry become the RF platoon. (Very limited OF options as FA’s Eric Byrnes?). Would need to sign a SP (hopefully Lee or Webb) but could try for Ted Lilly type. Kendrick becomes 5th starter. Pen include more young guys. Payroll already at $110M. Lee or Webb would cost another $20M or so, leaving only $10M for CF and bullpen. Arbitrate Dobbs. Extend Rollins. If you want prospects and free $ then Trade Howard for a stud young pitcher and CF and sign Konerko.
Rollins/Polanco/Utley/Konerko/Ibanez/Brown/Franciso/Ruiz.
Halladay/Hamels/Lilly/Happ/Kendrick
Lidge/Madson/Bastardo/Mathieson/(Romero)
Posted: 03:29 PM on January 5, 2010
Posts: 0 mikemike
I just saw the deal Holliday sign , Werth if he has the same type season as last will get near that deal.Look at the numbers difference is average comes out to 20 hits a year from what werth hit in 590 abats to what holliday did. but when Holiday had as many at bats he hit 24 h omruns. Werth only had really one full season at 573 at bats but his numbers project better than holiday except to average. and jason stikeouts more but walks are the same so big deal. Don 10 million he will never take. If he hits 36 homeruns again like last year minimum 15 for 6 years or 5 at the least, so he is gone. I believe the cardinals are nuts to pay holliday that much, more than pujois gets,
Posted: 08:57 PM on January 5, 2010
Posts: 0 mikemike
Oh my god how can anyone who watches baseball say “the drop from victorino to francisco is small” you have to be kidding, you cant be serious. I believe that statement is so bad I will have to go lay down from laughing. a outfielder like ben is not in vic class.
Posted: 09:01 PM on January 5, 2010
Posts: 0 Clinton Muck
History is a spectator sport.
Posted: 08:20 AM on July 25, 2010