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Beerman’s Report Card: Danys Baez

Posted by Nick "Beerman" Staskin, Tue, February 23, 2010 03:39 PM | Comments: 38
Acquisitions, Beerman's Offseason Report Card, Posts

PHILLIES SIGN DANYS BAEZ TO 2 YR/$5.25 MILLION DOLLAR DEAL

The loose bolt in the 2009 Phillies arsenal was the bullpen. Call it the curse of the MLB Network, but the stars of The Pen did not live up to the standard they had set in 2008.

In this off season, Chan Ho Park made the decision to pass on the Phillies’ offer (turned out the joke was on him) and Clay Condrey was let go; so other arms had to be brought in.

RAJ looked in the direction of men who had experience closing yet refused to bid Ed Wade-like contracts. The Brandon Lyon signing is the worst contract I can remember in a long time. Fernando Rodney was not worth the money he signed for either.  After the dust settled, it was Danys Baez who was set to join the bullpen. Keep in mind, Baez hasn’t been a closer since 2005, so those thinking he can step up if Lidge falters again shouldn’t get their hopes up.

At $5.25 million over two years, the dollars aren’t overwhelming. Was it necessary to sign Baez to a two-year deal considering he missed all of 2008? Eh, maybe not. If the deal was for more money, the years would be a bigger issue; so it is still a low-risk level contract considering the dollars. However if J.C. Romero can’t return to the form that earned him his own multi-year deal, there is a lot of risk in the role that I think Baez is going to be asked to fulfill.

Last year, Baez rebounded from an abysmal 2007 season, in which he posted an 0-6 record with a 6.44 ERA and 1.57 WHIP to go along with 1:1 BB:K ratio by posting a 4-6 clip in 59 games with a 4.02 ERA and a very good 1.13 WHIP.

The strikeouts haven’t been there for Baez over the past few seasons though, and that is a factor that could lead to some problems. When your relievers are putting too many balls into play, nothing good normally comes of it.

Was last year’s 1.13 WHIP a product of good placement of his pitches or was his .232 BAbip luck? Maybe 2006’s .305 BAbip just bad luck?

Baez isn’t going to light the world on fire as he hasn’t had an ERA under 4.00 since 2005, but if he can perform like last year he could definitely fill a prominent role in the bullpen. Just a matter of which Baez did Amaro lock up for two years…

BEERMAN’S GRADE: C

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About Nick "Beerman" Staskin

Nick Staskin has written 36 articles on Phillies Nation.

 
 
  • Posts: 0 maverick

    I heard Alfonseca is on the FA market… maybe we can add him to this pile a garbage we’re throwing together and calling a bullpen

     
  • Posts: 0 Manny

    I think a C is a fair grade for this one, because a lot will depend on which Baez shows up. But I hope it’s the good one, especially since he’s been pitching in the tough AL East…
    —-

    UNRELATED: Travis d’Arnaud (the “filler”/ least important prospect in the Blue Jays deal) is ranked by Baseball America as No. 81 prospect….. Aumont (the big “prize” we got in the Mariners deal) is ranked as No. 93.

    /smashes face against the wall

    ——

     
  • Posts: 0 RichieAllen

    Manny,I agree ,and unlike crazy optomist Phillie employees I think we got pretty much nothing in that Lee deal.Other than a giant headache when I heard about it.

     
  • Posts: 0 WFC010

    And when Aumont and/or Gillies turn out to be star quality players?

    What will you claim then?

     
  • Posts: 0 Don M

    By next year .. Aumount will be #12 overall or something . . .

    those rankings don’t mean d!ck, because im pretty sure that Jason Donald, and Carlos Carrasco and all were real high on there at one poin . . and now there is a chance that could be part-time players for the Indians, one of the worst teams in baseball


    The thing I hate the most about this offseason, is the GRADES of deals . . . you can’t say whether a contract is good or bad until it plays out

    $5.25 M over two years for a veteran pitcher with some experience as a Closer . . sounds like a good deal to me!

     
  • Posts: 0 WFC010

    And I wish you Cliff Lee trolls would go hang around a Mariners forum instead of wasting your time with us “Phillies Employees”

     
  • Posts: 0 Don M

    by the time Aumount and Gillies help us win games . . . all the haters will have already become fans of those players on facebook …..and they’ll have their T-shirts, etc . . .

    Not Manny, and RichieAllen specifically . . . but all the same people that can’t wait to be the #1 fan, or “I’ve been big on Domonic Brown for a while now” . . . Well no kidding, ever since any of us heard about the young kid that could be awesome, we all became a fan of him.. you maybe read an article about him three days before I heard of him, so good for you

    last year people were trying to start Jason Donald websites and stuff.. it was a little much for me

    we ALL want ALL of our prospects to turn into ALL STARS.. l

    ets focus on what we have instead of the fish (get it, a somewhat MARINER-related reference!) that got away

     
  • Posts: 0 Greg V.

    Seriously! CLIFF LEE IS GONE! LIVE WITH IT!

    As for Baez, I welcome the signing. I didn’t get all these “bidding wars” with Lyon and Rodney and giving them insane contracts, where the Baez one is more realistic for an average bullpen arm who has plenty of experience.

     
  • Posts: 0 Scotch Man

    Johnnie Walker Black for everyone! Baez gets an B+!

     
  • Posts: 0 PSUjoe

    C sounds fair. Lee’s gone so we need to get over it. Most knowledgable people I’ve seen who cover prospects have Gillies and Aumonte as 2 of the top 4 Phillies prospects right now. Kind of sucks though that Park signed for 1.5 and will be in the pen. Man he messed up.

     
  • Posts: 0 Wine Man

    The Phillies were bidding on Brandon Lyon up until the end, when Fast Eddy Wade outbid us! Keep drinking the Kool Aid Beerman! Or should I say, Kool Aid Man?

     
  • Posts: 0 shag beta sigma delta

    Like most bull pen arms they are year to year, just look at our closer Lidge, bad year in Houston in 07 perfect year here 08 and we all know what his 09 was. There are very few Mariano’s, Hoffman’s and the like that consistently put up real numbers. Also we have a few decent arms in the Minors that are already looking at reliever rolls, so we can take a look at them in time if needed. Especially middle relievers/mop up guys they come and go. So with the pen you really have to wait and see. Did anyone think Durbin or Coundrey would help this team like they did in the last two season when they signed them? I really do not think so.

     
  • Posts: 0 NJ

    If every off-season deal was graded to be an A you’d see the most under performing team in the history of the game. The Phils don’t need more stars which is why Amaro has been very shrewd in his short tenure adding role players to compliment the big guns. Contreras and Baez are good signings because they should provide a compliment to Durbin and Madson and a more balanced bullpen.

    It is very frustrating when the prospect rankings come out and are riddled with guys on rival teams and guys you’ve traded away. Taylor was blocked, Drabek was the price of doing business and D’Arnaud was still a way away and (even in 3 years time) contending teams rarely turn the keys over to a young catcher, just look at whats happened with Salty.

    Brown is a higher rated prospect than we could have expected, Aumont will go up the rankings along with Trevor May and the Phils have an absolute glut of young guys who are at the very least going to be capable of making the majors. It’s better than it seems in the Phils farm.

     
  • Posts: 0 Don M

    Im fairly certain that there will be more Yankees games broadcast in Korea than they would have with random Phillies games . . so Park has to like that

    They have a better chance of any team in baseball of reaching the postseason … so Park had to like that

    and they have like 145 Million people in NYC, some of which must be Korean . . so Park has to like that too

    it seems to be a good fit for him

     
  • Posts: 0 shag beta sigma delta

    What does that mean “Your comment is awaiting moderation” did I say something wrong if so I am sorry

     
  • Posts: 96 Paul Boye

    Avatar of Paul Boye

    We have a word filter that automatically sets comments aside when certain words are used. These are usually cusses.

    We’ve got a bit of a backlog of comments but I can’t approve them; no privileges for that. Far as I see it was clean though so when someone gets around to it, it’ll show up.

     
  • Posts: 0 Chuck

    I guess I’m one of those “Phillies employees” too…just because I can see the value….and long-term potential in the _ _ _ _ f _ _ e deal.

    And as far as the grades….yeah, they’re basically useless right now. A C is really what any deal SHOULD be…if you really have to have grades…because it’s right in the middle….it can go up and it can go down….as everything unfolds…on the field.”

    —–

    Nice “fish” joke….goes with the atmosphere of the rainy day.

     
  • Posts: 0 Chuck

    Haven’t heard the word “cusses” since my Dad used it.

     
  • Posts: 579 Brian Michael

    Avatar of Brian Michael

    @ shag beta sigma delta

    Your commented said the “Yankees d1cked Joba around”… the d-word is a no-no.

     
  • Posts: 0 psujoe

    DOn, Never thought about the Korean connection with the Yanks. Interesting.

     
  • Posts: 0 WFC010

    I know that not all of us agree on the value of the prospects for the Lee trade( but I love all 3 prospects, particularly Aumont and Gillies who both have very high ceilings), but can we all at least agree that we would like to see the following this season:

    To tomahawk the Braves

    To fry the Fish

    To say goodbye to the Mets

    To swat the Nats

    Can we all at least agree that we want to see that much?

    Let’s hope it happens, because we at least know the talent is there on our team.

     
  • Posts: 0 Manny

    I mention the rankings cause they are made by a reliable source, and I certainly believe that Baseball America knows more about prospects than I do (or any of us does)! So you gotta take those rankings at least slightly seriously. Obviously we’re gonna hear great stuff about Aumont, cause we’re the only ones in baseball that care, since he’s now our top pitching prospect. To the world, Aumont and the rest of prospects we got in the Mariners deal are middling prospects… of course they have the potential to be great and contribute 2 or 3 years from now… but if you put a gun to my head and ask me *right now* who’s gonna be the better player: No. 81 Travis d’Arnaud or unranked Tyson Gillies, I gotta go with d’Arnaud. Simple as that.

     
  • Posts: 0 Manny

    Notice how I commented on this without mentioning Cliff Lee. Well, I just did now. My point is: you’re gonna have to live with us fans talking about this deal, all year long… perhaps. It’s OK to ask ourselves what could’ve been, what would’ve happened… or on the flip side, how lucky we got that Lee sucked in 2010 or was in the DL half of the season… For better or for worse, most fans will keep commenting on the deal with the Mariners… it was a HUGE blockbuster. And it’s effects are still to be seen, so it is absolutely normal to bring it up again and again.

    I don’t see how’s that bad. Speculation is part of the fun. We all do it, all the freaking time (oh, Roy is gonna win 20+ games, etc). So you gotta be fair. People will compare Roy’s every start to each of Lee’s starts… They’re gonna compare the money we gave to Roy to the money Lee will get… They’re gonna compare the prospects we got to the prospects we traded away. It’s just gonna happen, and it is absolutely fine.

     
  • Posts: 0 Phylan

    I’m really tired of this prospect nihilism crap. Yes, prospects have steep falls and meteoric rises, and yes, the top 100 has a lot of turnover from year to year. This doesn’t mean rankings are meaningless. Obviously young players with no major league experience are more difficult to evaluate, but the combination of testimony from experienced scouts (which you can get at sources like Baseball America) and careful consideration of the right stats can provide a reasonably confident projection.

    And you all also have to stop whining and accept the fact that the Cliff Lee trade will be one of the most closely scrutinized moves from this offseason, whether you agree with it or not. Criticizing the return is also completely valid, whether you agree with it or not. If you don’t want to talk about the Phillies then why the hell are you reading Phillies blogs?

     
  • Posts: 0 Phylan

    Wow I need to hit refresh more often, beaten by Manny as to the second point

     
  • Posts: 0 Phylan

    And I like Gillies’ plate discipline, but his ceiling isn’t very high; he’s basically a slap-hitting speedy center-fielder, which there are about a billion of in the minor leagues. Aumont will have the most value if he can stick as a starter.

     
  • Posts: 0 bfo_33

    In regards to ratings – I think it is valid to compare the deal to the market – Halladay was an A+ because he could have signed elsewhere for much more. Polanco is probably a C- because we seemed to be bidding against ourselves (I still like the signing, and think the Rube would rather have things settled than have a contract battle, and the uncertainty it could bring). There should be no projection on performance,…., just what else the market will bear. I’d rank Baez a C+/B- since many comparables signed for more, but except for closer, think the bullpen is a bad place to spend money.

    MLB Prospects may have a larger budget and bigger staff, but look back at their rankings over the pat 10 years. You’ll be amazed at how many guys in the top 10 you’ve never heard of. The fact is, barring a major injury, that Taylor and Drabek are the only two prospects that had a realistic shot of ever playing for the Phils. If Utley goes down, Donald wasn’t coming up – at best, he would have been trade bait or an interim player until we found someone else. He’s a decent stick, but poor defensive infielder. Marson is not good enough to take over for Ruiz, and Schneider is a far better back-up. I believe the club needs to develop prospects (and would like to see a few more infielders), but are often more useful as trade bait than future starters on a playoff caliber team.

     
  • Posts: 0 Brooks

    Baez replaces Eyre?
    Eyre was the prototypical situational pitcher.
    Last year he appeared in 42 games but he totaled only 30 innings. We all knew, as Charlie did, Scott could finish 1 inning, anything more would be a risk (at best).

    His career ERA has gone from below 2.8 (in 05 when he had 41 saves and made the AL AS team) to a career worse 6.44 when he pitched for the Orioles and was 0-6.

    Overall, the career ERA for Baez is 4.02 and he will be 32 in September.
    Note, the career ERA for Scott Eyre was 4.23 and Scott will turn 38 in May.
    The so-so grade probably fits, but it was probably the same grade that Scott Eyre received when he came on board. I believe the Phils are hoping that DB will last longer than 1 inning and will be an adequate replacement for Scott.

     
  • Posts: 0 George

    Projections based on “just what else the market will bear” is not really reliable, either, because there is no way for fans to know for certain just what other teams may have been offering, or what one particular team feels they should spend in order to get the player they’ve targeted. I don’t think anyone here would have thought Damon would get $8 million+, that Sheets would get $10 million, or that Park would get a measly $1.5 million. If a team needs a particular position filled badly enough, they’ll pay more, particularly if a lot of other teams are given a chance to jump in on the bidding.

    As far as the bullpen being a bad place to spend money, teams pretty much have to, whether they want to or not. Even the worst MLB relief pitcher wants at least a million, and there just aren’t enough minor leaguers around with MLB talent. $2.5 million, in that context, doesn’t seem like a very big waste, and could even prove to be a bargain. No one complained about Park for that much money. No one complains about Madson for almost twice that much.

     
  • Posts: 0 Don M

    I still don’t understand most of you people . . . and I guess I never will

    The Phillies made an offer of 3 years – $24 M to Beltre . . .who declined

    so they moved on . . Figgins was asking more than the Beltre offer, so he was ruled out.

    Mark DeRosa isn’t even a full-time infielder, .. . so he was ruled out

    it came down to Polanco.. and I guess Miguel Tejada..

    They wanted Polanco, and went after him.. ..some fans think the 3rd year was terrible. But with a chance that some of our current superstars are gone in two years, Polanco could be slotted-in anywhere in the INF, and probably LF too.. at $6 M that is a pretty nice insurance policy to have.

    Also, we went with the 3rd year, because that is what it took to sign him.. a one-year deal would’ve sucked because we’d be right back in this position next year . . a two-year deal might have seemed ideal, but I guess Polanco’s side wanted the security of that guaranteed 3rd year

    Of all the 3b contracts this offseason, I would say that his is the most team-friendly, ….and that he is without a doubt the best fit into our current lineup

     
  • Posts: 0 George

    Polanco really was the only option. I’d much rather have him for three years than take a chance on Tejada for one or two. At least Polanco can play more than one position, and has been at third for a few hundred more games than Tejada has.

    The others were too expensive, including DeRosa, considering he’s only a part time third baseman, and only adequate when he does play there.

     
  • Posts: 0 Chuck

    Manny…

    So you think it’s “absolutely fine” to continue to bitch and moan about about the C. L. deal…and to scrutinize EVERY SINGLE MOVE Roy Halladay makes…

    ….instead of just cheering for and supporting Halladay…and the three prospects.

    ??????

    I just don’t get it.

     
  • Posts: 0 Eem

    How in the world can you grade a signing of Baez without mentioning the most important part of Baez’s game from 2009 (or the fact that he is now in his second season recovering from Tommy John)?

    Baez GB% was 60.9% in 2009, up from 51.2% in 2007 and 39.7% in 2006. And there is more than reasonable evidence to suggest it was not a fluke.

    Baez throws three pitches, a high-90s fastball, a curve, and a splitter. In 2007, he threw the curve 23.6% of the time, and the splitter 5.9%.

    In 2009, when he had nearly a 10% increase in GB%, he threw the splitter 22.5% of the time, as opposed to just 6.2% for the curve.

    If you’re going to come out with the high-and-mighty gradings/criticisms, you should probably offer the most important facts at hand.

     
  • Posts: 0 NJ

    What it comes down to is the Phils got a great deal to acquire Lee. They got what was considered a great deal to acquire Halladay which wouldn’t have happened without a contract extension that keeps him here for at least 5 years with the option year. The Phils then got a pretty decent deal for Lee to replenish the farm with some major league capable prospects including one no-doubt top 100 player on the rise, for a guy who was walking for what would have been cross your fingers and hope draft picks.

    Polanco is a gritty hitter who’ll open things up for the guys behind him and fire them up in the clubhouse. Baez will be able to pitch in multiple roles in both middle relief and set-up duty which should help Durbin and Madson and sometimes you have to bring a guy in to make the guys around him better. Unless the Phils fall apart, if Baez’s ERA is above 4 I guarantee you the other guys in the pens numbers will be improved.

     
  • Posts: 0 psujoe

    Cliff Lee turned down 3 years 60 million, a deal Halliday took. Bye bye Cliff, Welcome Roy!

     
  • Posts: 0 Bob in Bucks

    I think Amaro deserves better than a C for Baez. I think a B. Baez has demonstrated he can pitch in the back-end of bullpen. I don’t think he will do as well as 2009 but he is a respectable bullpen pitcher. Given the money paid I don’t see a problem with a two year contract.
    I judge the signings based on cash out for perceived value. I don’t see an imbalance here, there is good upside potential (if Baez repeats 09 either in 10 or 11) and limited downside. Who else exactly would we want (yes Park but that was not Amaro’s fault) for the money?

     
  • Posts: 0 Griffin

    Why the 2nd year for Baez?

    Amaro loves to dole out one more year than anyone else will offer. It would make sense if he was GM of the Nats, but he shouldn’t be overpaying players to play for a WS contender.

    There’s an article I read this off-season linking Baseball America prospect rankings to future major league success. The results do show that these rankings have some merit, contrary to what some people on this blog would believe.

     
  • Posts: 0 Bob in Bucks

    I am sure Baez was not interested in a one year contract and had other offers. To get him for one year would most likely have cost more, if it was possible in any case.
    Having negotiated lots of deals (not baseball!) I have learned that you can’t compare your deal with what you wanted, only with what others can achieve. It takes two parties to agree and there are alternate employers.

    Players always will want more security and sometimes the market will force you to give (see Ibanez, Polanco, Burrell, etc). But Amaro is not alone in this which is what forces him to give.

     
 
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