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Beerman’s Report Card: Roy Halladay

Posted by Nick "Beerman" Staskin, Tue, March 02, 2010 08:32 AM | Comments: 101
Beerman's Offseason Report Card, Posts

PHILLIES TRADE FOR ROY HALLADAY AND SIGN HIM TO 3YR/$60 MILLION DOLLAR EXTENSION

Little by little Twitter feeds were buzzing.

Little by little local media reported seeing Roy Halladay in Center City with his agent.

Little by little different players were thought to be part of a mega-trade to bring in Halladay.

And then it was official. It took a couple days, but finally Roy Halladay was sporting red pinstripes.

For the price of prized prospects Kyle Drabek, Michael Taylor and Travis d’Arnaud, Ruben Amaro had brought in Doc. RAJ proceeded to sign Halladay to a three-year $60 million dollar extension, with a $20 million dollar vesting option.

Sure the prospects seemed hefty, namely Drabek. But at best Drabek could be a stud, and that was depending on who you asked. Others had the youngster as a number 3. You always go with the sure thing.

It’s no secret, I’m not a big Amaro guy. He had a World Series champion handed to him with one of the top farm systems in baseball. You can’t walk into a better scenario.

But this was his deal to make, and he brought in one of the top pitchers in baseball. He then proceeded to lock up his investment at a below-market deal, ensuring he wouldn’t be paying for a man in 2016 that was not the pitcher he traded for in 2009. This was a perfect trade. Hell, Toronto even threw in $6 million bucks.

Could the deal have been made in July? Maybe, but it would have cost more and perhaps Halladay’s desire to play in Philadelphia wouldn’t have been as strong; and he wouldn’t have agreed to a contract in which he left somewhere between $50-60 million on the table had he opted to become a free agent after this year.

I won’t get into the deal that happened to coincide with this as that’s another story. This is about the new ace.

How much should we expect out of the new top gun? Well…

  • Halladay’s never lost more than 11 games in a season.
  • Since 2005, Halladay has only had one year with an ERA over 3.20
  • In 287 career starts, Halladay has thrown 49 complete games. One every 5.8 starts.
  • During the last two seasons, Halladay has walked just 1.38 batters every 9 innings.

I can give you stats for days. And I’m sure that you could give me stats for days. In the National League, facing 8 batters a game instead of 9? The possibilities are endless.

Halladay will keep the ball in the ballpark, keep the ball on the ground and gives you a stopper that doesn’t come around very often. Halladay is in the same breath as Tim Lincecum, CC Sabathia and Johan Santana. I’m not going to rank them as any baseball fan would be foolish to not want any of them on his team. Each can give you something different. But doesn’t it feel damn good to have one of them on your team? Now if you compare the contracts that Sabathia and Santana have, and the massive one that Lincecum is going to sign and the deal that Amaro inked Doc to…good job, Rubes.

beermansGradeIt didn’t take long for the Halladay jerseys and t-shirts to start flying off the shelves. The last time a player brought this sort of excitement to Philadelphia upon his immediate arrival was Jim Thome, and that was because we hadn’t seen a big name come to town in forever. While “he who shall not be named” brought a buzz with him last season, it was nothing compared to Doc.

Now here is a question to ask yourself: as excited as you were when they brought in Halladay, how much of it was deflated by the second part of that eventful day? Just a thought, because we all know the other shoe did drop…

BEERMAN’S GRADE A+

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About Nick "Beerman" Staskin

Nick Staskin has written 36 articles on Phillies Nation.

 
 
  • Posts: 1435 Pat Gallen

    Avatar of Pat Gallen

    Now just for argument’s sake, is the Halladay trade completely separate from the Lee deal and we are treating it as such (for this article, I’m aware the trades we separate)?

     
  • Posts: 0 Greg V.

    That Halladay trade is not completely seperated from the Lee trade and I’m sick of people acting like it was. Without Halladay signing the extension, the Lee trade would not have gone down.

     
  • Posts: 0 Scotch Man

    I liked Drabek a lot. I give the trade a C.

     
  • Posts: 0 Keith E

    I thought we all agreed to leave ‘you know who’ out of our conversations starting 1/1/10.
    GO PHILS!!!

     
  • Posts: 0 Gaze_NJ

    I suspect that by July, Halladay will have put together such a steady and dominating first half that “he who should not be named” will be all but forgotten. I’m still not sold on Cliff Lee being as good of a pitcher as he sometimes appears, but I’ve been head over heels for Halladay for a years now. A+ for the trade, A- for the “final grade” of that memorable day.

     
  • Posts: 0 Manny

    A for Halladay… D for that “eventful day.”

     
  • Posts: 0 Ed R.

    They are separate deals.

    Because Amaro was able to lock up Halladay for 3 years at below market value that made Cliff Lee expendable. If Halladay was brought here purely as a rental for the year then Lee would still be here today.

     
  • Posts: 0 The Beerman

    Part 2 will come on Thursday…won’t be so kind to Rubes.

     
  • Posts: 0 bfo_33

    I could have made the trade, Doc held a gun to Toronto’s head. RAJ did a great job of not overpaying in July, going to option 2, holding on to Brown, negotiating the extension, all without embarrassing Toronto.
    A for the trade, B for the day (not sold on Lee either, Drabek’s size concerns me, like what I’ve seem out of Aumont, think Hamels will bounce back, but miss Taylor, would have liked to see an infield prospect included).

     
  • Posts: 1435 Pat Gallen

    Avatar of Pat Gallen

    I agree that I will miss Taylor and that the day should get somewhere around a C, but in terms of locking up a top 3 pitcher to a friendly deal, thats an A.

     
  • Posts: 0 Justin

    Nah, Roy’s terrible. Lose him. Lose the whole rotation, start from scratch. Its the only way.

    Seriously though, Roy gets 20 wins. Easy.

     
  • Posts: 0 NJ

    Every insider says the Phils deal with Toronto for Halladay was a steal. The only prospect that went in that deal that hurt was Drabek since Taylor was never going to play he he was so blocked and the Phils could afford to lose D’Arnaud with Valle in the pipeline to get it done.

    With those guys lost I think Amaro gets a solid B to then send an impending free agent (who would yield at most a late 1st round pick and a sandwhich) for a pitcher with top 25 prospect upside and two guys truly capable of making the majors. PLUS if your losing Werth you don’t want do be drafting 6 or 7 times around the same point late before you get to the 2nd round which is what would have happened. Were other teams really going to give more than 1 legit and two good prospects? Was a better deal than the Twins got for Santana…

     
  • Posts: 0 Manny

    Nothing should be ever compared to the Twins-Santana deal… that was horrible.

     
  • Posts: 0 Chuck

    Again, grades are useless until we see how a player actually performs on the field. With that argument, I would give this a C….right in the middle, with the oppurtunity for it to up or down based on actual performances from all players.

    But from just the pure knowledge that we landed Roy Halladay….arguably the best pitcher in the game…..and that he has that excellent CHANCE to do extremely well…..then you have to grade it an A.

     
  • Posts: 0 NJ

    ^Pat- As much as we’ll look back and no doubt wish we’d kept Taylor with the career he’s probably going to have, if your in the Phils front office looking at the guys we’ve found that are in the top 100 lists you have to feel supremely confident you can groom more grade A/B+ prospects who’ll start marching up these lists.

    Remember when we were scratching our heads looking at Mike Costanzo or Carlos Carrasco wondering where else we’d get impact players from because there was nothing in the farm post Ed Wade… Or when we viewed Adrian Cardenas as our top prospect… Keith Law can rank the Phils system below the White Sox for all I care because I’m supremely confident at this front office’s ability to find and develop major league talent.

     
  • Posts: 0 Manny

    Very, very true NJ. They seem to be pretty high on all three ex-Mariners prospects.. so we’ll just have to hope for the best!

     
  • Posts: 1435 Pat Gallen

    Avatar of Pat Gallen

    Chuck, you just have to look at it from the perspective of, was this a good trade to make during the offseason. Of course, we cant predict the future. But from the information we have at hand, how can we grade this trade.

    NJ, Your completely correct about prospects, however I have this part of me that feels like Taylor will be a force. I never had that same feeling about others in the organization before him, not even Howard or Utley at first. But, then again, that just goes to show you…

     
  • Posts: 0 NJ

    I loved Taylor too believe me but it was a numbers game and Brown is the better fit for this team going forward, IF the Phils are going to re-sign our star free agents then role players are needed more than future star prospects who wont be developed in the right way. With Ibanez off the books a year later I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Phils strike early and try and temp Werth into $60m or so with the big money teams having a lot of money committed past next year which might make it seem like a deal worth taking… No pun intended

     
  • Posts: 0 The Beerman

    Pat at first I was a little peeved about giving up Drabek, but then started thinking. We only get hyped about these kids bc of the era we live in where their college and minor league numbers are so readily available. The list of top prospects who pan out is so slim.

    lol odd reference, but remember todd van poppel? i had so many of his rookie cards i thought i was going to be rich. cliff floyd, he was thought to be the next game changer…for every tim lincecum there seem to be 500 tyler greenes

     
  • Posts: 0 NJ

    We were all dreading giving up Drabek and or Happ, then Drabek but to use him to land the best veteran pitcher in baseball. Thinking about it were we likely to get a pitching prospect as highly rated as Aumont is for Lee AND still get a package to go with it, mirroring something Don M said last week Aumont will be up near where Drabek was on the prospect lists by the time he nears 23.

     
  • Posts: 0 Jeff of Nova

    Yeah it took a good week to get over giving up Drabek, but I have spent some time doing my homework on Halladay and it was the right deal great timing and great extension.

    My only issue with the “he must not be named” deal is that I feel we could have gotten more for him if RAJ wasn’t impatient., or just kept him.

    My only issue with the deal was why not trade this group and maybe insert a Lou Marson for D’Aroud back in July. That was the part I was annoyed with. Their farm would not have been raped at the higher level.

     
  • Posts: 0 NJ

    Because it was going to take much more to get Halladay back then and the only prospect we really lost in the Lee deal was the kid pitcher.

    Jeff- out of interest where do you think we could have got a better deal? Yankees, Boston, Angels? Have thought about this long and hard and I think we got a much better deal than it seemed at the time because I think Aumont is better than any guy that could be named without bigger issues let alone what would have come here with them. It blindsided the insiders and it wasn’t the sexy story driving deal they would have hoped for.

     
  • Posts: 0 Manny

    Talking about great pitchers like Roy Halladay….. how about former Phillie, now Republican Senator, Jim Bunning? Major A-Hole.

     
  • Posts: 0 The Dipsy

    Why? Why did this post have to go up? After digesting everything, I have formed the following beliefs:

    1) I would much rather have Halladay than Lee especially given the fact that he signed a VERY team friendly contract;

    2) As crazy as this may sound to some, after reading a lot about these prospects, I’m not so sure the guys we gave up are better for the Phils than the guys we got back. I would rate Drabek just a little higher than Aumont as a prospect. I would rate Taylor higher than Gillies, but Taylor was blocked. I would rather have the live arm of Ramirez than a catcher that will never play here. I also like the fact that these guys have shown some pedigree yet have not yet played themselves out in the minors and are in a position where they have to make the team or get traded, like Taylor. We got good talent back, but the talents is a little farther back in the pipeline and given the makeup of this team, thats just fine. And I love Gillies.

    The Dipsy

     
  • Posts: 0 Chuck

    Ok, if you’re grouping Lee and Halladay together….as part of the same deal…..and I think you have to do that…..then it’s a A.

    Lee had to be dealt for all the reasons that have been hashed over a million times. And the Halladay part of it speaks for itself.

    Forget Michael Taylor. Forget Kyle Drabek.

    We got…and I know this is a contoversial statement….we got a fair return for Lee. And we got the best pitcher in the game.

    So….give it an A then. (But I really hate grades before the players involved actually perform)

     
  • Posts: 0 Matt Kwasiborski

    The best part about the Halladay deal was that we are not used to being the buyers for the top flight major league talent. We are usually the sellers getting prospects in return and hoard them hoping that they will be contributors one day.

    Now, we are win now mode, something that hasn’t happened to this team for an entire generation. If we were Yankee fans, we would be used to giving up prospects for big time talent. We are very leery of these minor leaguers coming back to beat us one day. But we now have the BEST pitcher in baseball. The guy had a 2.79 ERA pitching in the AL EAST. Cliff Lee had an ERA of 3.14 pitching in the AL Central and his ERA was higher pitching in the NL last year. Thanks Cliff, but give me Halladay if I had to choose.

    There is no way Halladay will be a bust unless he suffers a major injury- which can happen to any player at any talent level at any time. Losing Drabek and Taylor hurts our system, but some people pointed out that Taylor is pretty much blocked and we have solid talent in the OF down in the minors. Drabek is the bigger factor, but so what if he develops into a solid major league #1. We have a PROVEN commodity now who is considered the best pitcher in baseball.

    Lee was awesome and he will be a legend just above Aaron Rowand (short stint, major contributer) but he will be seeking top dollar on the market next year and when we see the contract he signs, we will then realize what a steal Halladay was.

    The trade is a B+ until Halladay wins the CY Young, NLCS MVP and WS MVP this year.

     
  • Posts: 0 BRANDON

    Does anyone know if they have done the lottery yet for open day tickets?

     
  • Posts: 0 WFC010

    Honestly…part of me really thinks we should have traded Happ instead of Drabek, but Happ is still more of a sure thing to at least be an “Okay” Major League pitcher, while Drabek has the higher ceiling for potential, but is somewhat riskier in regards to how he’ll do in the Majors.

    And I really feel awful about losing Taylor also, especially since we are probably losing Werth…and Taylor has power and bats right.

     
  • Posts: 0 theo

    does anyone know where we can find streams of all the spring training games?……i think i found some on myp2p….any other suggestions?

     
  • Posts: 0 Don M

    Not sure about the streaming, but I would imagine that MLB Network will have games on every day ?

    I know that the Phillies have like 7 Spring Training games on TV this year

    ESPN used to show afternoon baseball games too, not sure if they still do now that MLB Network is here

    Taylor is ready for the majors now though.. they traded him while his value was high . . . Brown projects to be the better player, and he will be ready next year, when we just might need a new OF

     
  • Posts: 0 Bob in Bucks

    Definitely an A+ trade. I still can’t believe the $20MM/yr extensions that we got from Halladay PLUS $6 million. Sure we gave up talent – you have to give to get but I thought Amaro did a great job.

    For everyone ready to kill him for the next deal remember that Amaro got him in the first place. We essentially traded Seattle prospects for the prospects we sent to Cleveland. The ones sent to Cleveland were marginally better but we were getting 1.5 years vs Seattle getting one year. Note Seattle did not get an extension signed.

    It is easy to spend others money. But without the Seattle prospects the farm system would be decimated. We need the prospects if for nothing more than trade bait.

    A tough but right move. For those who think Amaro could have done better can we hear which team and which prospects?

     
  • Posts: 0 Griffin

    I give the Halladay trade a B+ and the Lee trade an F.

    If you take the 10 prospects that were involved in the 2 Lee deals and the Halladay deal, the best 3 prospects were Taylor, Drabek and D’arnaud. The Phils paid top dollar for 1 year of Halladay. The fact that they were able to sign Halladay to a discounted extension is absolutely great, but the Blue Jays only traded 1 year of Halladay and got a king’s ransom.

    The Lee fiasco is unexplainable and there is no way Tyson Gillies is anywhere near Michael Taylor.

     
  • Posts: 0 Jeff of Nova

    NJ,

    Well I am not sure exactly who we could have gotten, but I feel and I know others felt the same way, that RAJ did not thoroughly look into what he could have gotten in return, just took a partner. Now I know he did his homework I just felt there was more out there to be had, but you know just a thought.

    His salary is low for production so many would jump at him.

     
  • Posts: 0 Don M

    Wait until Aumount is a dominant RHP to match with Halladay.. and then we’ll see how much we hate that trade

    .
    .
    .
    And I keep saying, but get no responses . . . if we “stole” Lee from the Indians.. why would people think we could then get back some amazing return for Lee . . when the team would get him for only 1 year, instead of 1.5 ?

     
  • Posts: 0 Griffin

    “why would people think we could then get back some amazing return for Lee”

    Because two wrongs don’t make a right?

    The Phils gave up 3 great prospects for 1 year of Halladay.

    The Phils received 3 mediocre prospects for 1 year of Cliff Lee.

    Granted, the Phils gave up even LESS to acquire Lee but if we’re just analyzing the second Lee trade, the Phils didn’t get enough back IMO.

     
  • Posts: 0 Don M

    Carrasco, Marson, Donald, Knapp

    vs

    Aumount, Gillies, Ramirez

    those was the guys for Lee… I’d much rather have the guys we got than the guys we gave up. Knapp could be good, but he’s probably 4 years away


    to get Roy Halladay, we had to give up much more than we gave up for Lee, because Halladay is better

     
  • Posts: 0 Don M

    those was = “those were” ….in blog language

     
  • Posts: 0 Jeff of Nova

    Yeah I am not sure I would use the word hate with the Lee trade, but I am just not confident in it.

     
  • Posts: 0 Don M

    I think we all wish we would’ve gotten as highly-rated prospects as Toronto got FROM US, FOR HALLADAY

    but the fact that we are able to steal Cliff Lee from Cleveland, made teams not want to reward us for that steal.. nobody was going to give up MORE than we did, for LESS time of Cliff Lee..

    Lee isn’t going to resign with Seattle… He’ll be a Yankee.. they will have kept Hughes and Chamberlain ..and added their main target 1.5 years later. So they’ll be “winners” out of all of this

    Seattle better hope like hell they make the World Series this year, otherwise that trade is BUST

     
  • Posts: 0 Griffin

    Seattle gets 2 draft picks for Lee which isn’t too shabby. It’s a gamble worth taking.

    Is there any way Carl Crawford and Cliff Lee AREN’T Yankees next year?

     
  • Posts: 0 Don M

    Yea but Draft Picks aren’t anywhere near as good as Top Prospects . . . most draft picks never make it to the majors, but give those guys two years of playing professional baseball …working their way through the majors… and you have a much better idea of who can succeed at the highest level

    Crawford could be on the RedSox

    but that would mean Werth is a Yankee instead of a RedSock (Sock?? doesn’t sound right) … Werth’s stepdad played for the Yankees, so I’d imagine he wouldn’t mind playing in NY, taking over RF for Nick Swisher

    Swisher makes $9 M in 2011… but then has a $1 Million buyout.. (or a $10.25 M option) … so I could see the Yankees eating a lot of that salary to move him in 2011

     
  • Posts: 0 Chuck

    Eff!! I would MUCH rather have Werth be a “RedSock” instead of a Yankee.

    Excellent point about the “steal” of Cliff Lee form Cleveland. People forget about that and automatically just assume that some other team out there will be able to do the same thing. The “steal” was so blatant to the rest of the baseball world…and everybody took really good notes.

     
  • Posts: 0 Jeff of Nova

    Yeah if kept Lee, and got Halladay, yes our farm would be weak, I just don’t think it is much stronger with who we got back in return.

    I would say what we got in return vs what we gave up for Lee was a push, but we got Lee for half a year and Seattle has him for a whole year. Thats the difference. not necessarily the players. Of course it is easier to grade out what we gave up cause we have already seen what Carrasco did with the Indians, Knapp was shut down due to fatigue, Donald was hurt and Marson is looking like their starter at catcher.

    The group we got, not too sure about yet. Just not confident in it. I hope Aumont is with Hamels/Halladay for many years, but we never know. He played on the otherside of the US in a different farm league so lets see what he does in Reading or Lehigh.

    THe other 2 interesting stories nothing I get overly excited about yet! You all remember how excited I was about Drabek last year, not sure that we will have a prospect like that, but we do have

    Halladay!

     
  • Posts: 0 Don M

    But Marson and Donald will never be anything special . . . I said that from the get-go that Donald is a part time player.

    Marson could be good, but he’s either a starting catcher on a terrible team, or a backup on a good team

    I think Aumount has more “upside” than Drabek… he’s younger, and more powerful ..

     
  • Posts: 0 Chuck

    Aumont is one of these guys that has the ability to just “shock” a lot of people. I CAN’T WAIT to see the guy pitch….anywhere this year.

     
  • Posts: 0 Jeff of Nova

    younger but not by much, Drabek has good pedigree too.

    Only time will tell.

    Don I do agree that what we sent to Cleveland was crap.

    I think Knapp and Aumount are similiar in some ways big arm big power.

    Drabek is more major league ready than Aumount so we shall see, Drabek may in the majors this year. I think he would have been our 5th starter this year at some point.

     
  • Posts: 0 Jeff of Nova

    whhoops hit enter

    But I would rather have Halladay as my #1

    Halladay

     
  • Posts: 0 Manny

    “I think Aumount has more “upside” than Drabek… he’s younger, and more powerful ..”

    Interesting… I didn’t know that Don M knew more about prospects than the scouts from Baseball America…

    What many on here are saying, and rightly so, is that we gave up a $hitload for Halladay when the guy was basically telling Jays management that he had to leave and go to Philly. The extension we then gave Halladay is what saves this deal… but if you’re looking at the actual trade: giving up THREE Top 100 prospects for a rental (1 year of Halladay), then it sounds pretty lousy. Again, I’m okay with the Halladay deal overall BECAUSE of the extension. Otherwise, HELL NO.

    As for the Lee part of the deal, I agree with Griffin. We stole Lee from the Indians… that doesn’t mean we have to let someone else steal it from us. The guy put up one of the most dominant pitching performances in playoff history… He’s worth much more than the *actual* value of the 3 prospects we got… of course, they might all become stars… but AS OF TODAY, they are so-so prospects… even Aumont. Just because the spotlight is on him doesn’t mean he’ll be pitching with Halladay and Hamels anytime soon…

     
  • Posts: 0 Chuck

    Maybe Halladay DID “tell Jays management that he had to leave and go to Philly”

    That, however, doesn’t automatically mean that we didn’t have to give something up of significant value in order to make the trade.

    There’s NO WAY that Toronto just makes any kind of deal because Roy Halladay is demanding a trade. No GM is THAT stupid.

     
  • Posts: 0 NJ

    Manny sorry but that was idiotic saying Don thinks he knows more than Baseball America because last week they said there’s a 60 or so prospect difference. What he clearly said which I agree on is Aumont could be near or exceed Drabek’s rating when he has reached the age Drabek was.


    You can’t look at the Halladay and Lee trades in similar trade value, Halladay had FAR superior value because you were trading for a guy who was penning a multi-year deal. Lee was a rental for anyone and the market would have shriveled had he stayed on it especially since the Seattle deal was only made because the Phils pressed for one guy in particular they wanted.

    “Because two wrongs don’t make a right?
    The Phils gave up 3 great prospects for 1 year of Halladay.
    The Phils received 3 mediocre prospects for 1 year of Cliff Lee.”

    The Phils acquired Halladay because it was a FANTASTIC deal and EVERYONE inside baseball said it and D’Arnaud wasn’t a GREAT prospect, a good one with a lot of upside. The guys received from Seattle were not ‘mediocre’ considering Aumount is pretty much where Drabek was at that point without a serious arm surgery, Ramirez being a guy scouts view as being very likely to be an impact reliever or guy capable of making the rotation and Gillies isn’t Quintin Berry, he’s a young legit prospect capable of being a major leaguer.

    The Phils had to deal Lee to add 3 major league caliber prospects to add to the group that will be major league ready at a time the Phils will not be able to re-sign or add free agents without players at the minimum salary. That would have been only a remote possibility if they’d taken the picks and gone to the draft, we weren’t getting Washington or Pittsburgh’s 1st rounder.

    As for what the Phils could have got I think we got what may turn out to be a very good deal.

    -The Yankees weren’t going to give one of their top prospects and would have been a far inferior package.
    -The Red Sox might have given a bluechip pitcher but the rest of the package would have been poor.
    -The Angels were not going to give one of their top pitching prospects.
    -The Seattle prospects were probably as good as anything the Dodgers would have given.

    Who else would have bid on Lee? Aumont is probably the best prospect we could get given a couple more years grooming where he’ll likely reach elite prospect status and we got A LOT more in the deal.

     
 
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