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Beerman’s Report Card: Roy Halladay

Posted by Nick "Beerman" Staskin, Tue, March 02, 2010 08:32 AM | Comments: 101
Beerman's Offseason Report Card, Posts

PHILLIES TRADE FOR ROY HALLADAY AND SIGN HIM TO 3YR/$60 MILLION DOLLAR EXTENSION

Little by little Twitter feeds were buzzing.

Little by little local media reported seeing Roy Halladay in Center City with his agent.

Little by little different players were thought to be part of a mega-trade to bring in Halladay.

And then it was official. It took a couple days, but finally Roy Halladay was sporting red pinstripes.

For the price of prized prospects Kyle Drabek, Michael Taylor and Travis d’Arnaud, Ruben Amaro had brought in Doc. RAJ proceeded to sign Halladay to a three-year $60 million dollar extension, with a $20 million dollar vesting option.

Sure the prospects seemed hefty, namely Drabek. But at best Drabek could be a stud, and that was depending on who you asked. Others had the youngster as a number 3. You always go with the sure thing.

It’s no secret, I’m not a big Amaro guy. He had a World Series champion handed to him with one of the top farm systems in baseball. You can’t walk into a better scenario.

But this was his deal to make, and he brought in one of the top pitchers in baseball. He then proceeded to lock up his investment at a below-market deal, ensuring he wouldn’t be paying for a man in 2016 that was not the pitcher he traded for in 2009. This was a perfect trade. Hell, Toronto even threw in $6 million bucks.

Could the deal have been made in July? Maybe, but it would have cost more and perhaps Halladay’s desire to play in Philadelphia wouldn’t have been as strong; and he wouldn’t have agreed to a contract in which he left somewhere between $50-60 million on the table had he opted to become a free agent after this year.

I won’t get into the deal that happened to coincide with this as that’s another story. This is about the new ace.

How much should we expect out of the new top gun? Well…

  • Halladay’s never lost more than 11 games in a season.
  • Since 2005, Halladay has only had one year with an ERA over 3.20
  • In 287 career starts, Halladay has thrown 49 complete games. One every 5.8 starts.
  • During the last two seasons, Halladay has walked just 1.38 batters every 9 innings.

I can give you stats for days. And I’m sure that you could give me stats for days. In the National League, facing 8 batters a game instead of 9? The possibilities are endless.

Halladay will keep the ball in the ballpark, keep the ball on the ground and gives you a stopper that doesn’t come around very often. Halladay is in the same breath as Tim Lincecum, CC Sabathia and Johan Santana. I’m not going to rank them as any baseball fan would be foolish to not want any of them on his team. Each can give you something different. But doesn’t it feel damn good to have one of them on your team? Now if you compare the contracts that Sabathia and Santana have, and the massive one that Lincecum is going to sign and the deal that Amaro inked Doc to…good job, Rubes.

beermansGradeIt didn’t take long for the Halladay jerseys and t-shirts to start flying off the shelves. The last time a player brought this sort of excitement to Philadelphia upon his immediate arrival was Jim Thome, and that was because we hadn’t seen a big name come to town in forever. While “he who shall not be named” brought a buzz with him last season, it was nothing compared to Doc.

Now here is a question to ask yourself: as excited as you were when they brought in Halladay, how much of it was deflated by the second part of that eventful day? Just a thought, because we all know the other shoe did drop…

BEERMAN’S GRADE A+

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About Nick "Beerman" Staskin

Nick Staskin has written 36 articles on Phillies Nation.

 
 
  • Posts: 0 Don M

    Since Baseball America is right all the time….

    Im smart enough to know that 20 year old kid that’s 6’7″, and now working alongside Roy Halladay is heading in the right direction

    http://mlb.fanhouse.com/2010/01/25/the-top-100-prospects-of-2010-26-100/

    The Skinny: The best pure arm, and the player with the most upside in the Halladay-Lee blockbuster, was Aumont. He is not as far along in his development as Kyle Drabek but the raw stuff stacks up with anyone. Armed with a 92-95 mph heavy sinking fastball and a four-seamer he can sit at 94-98 mph with, the 6-foot-7 Canadian can get by on arm alone. Couple that with his plus breaking ball at 79-83 mph and Aumont has two pitches that could make him a downright dominant force.

    Ranked higher than Aumont’s #29

    was #15- Kyle Drabek

    The Skinny: If Phillippe Aumont was the pitching prospect with the best stuff in Roy Halladay-Cliff Lee deal, then Drabek is the one with the best combination of stuff and polish. He’s undersized, but the 22-year-old has the stuff, bloodlines and feel for pitching to perform at the top of a big-league rotation. Aside from some lingering makeup concerns, Drabek is very close to the total package.

    so Drabek would compare to a Pedro Martinez?
    Aumont would compare to .. Roy Halladay? who he gets to watch up close everyday


    MLB.com ranks them as Aumont #47 . . . Drabek #17

    Aumont: Aumont has thrown just 106 2/3 total professional innings since being drafted in 2007, but he’s shown just how dominant he can be, with a .228 batting average against and a 9.20 K/9 ratio.

    Upside potential: He’s still a bit raw, but he still has the chance to be a top-of-the-rotation type ace or a nasty closer out of the bullpen. He’ll get to the bigs faster if he remains in a relief role.

    Drabek: Statistically speaking: It’s hard to nitpick on a guy who was so successful in his first full season following Tommy John surgery. Overall, Drabek’s numbers, from ERA (3.19) to strikeout rate (8.23 K/9) to walk rate (2.76 BB/9) were outstanding, especially considering the elbow reconstruction. He will need to improve against lefties, who hit .317 against him in Double-A (compared to .174 for RHH).

    Upside potential: He’s not far from helping Toronto out. He probably could get hitters out now in a bullpen role, but he still has the upside to be a No. 2-type starter.

     
  • Posts: 0 Manny

    Again, my point is: Don, NJ, Chuck.. you guys are betting way too much on guys like Aumont, Gillies… because you think or heard they have tons of potential…not only that, but that the potential will be fully realized and that these guys will become elite prospects. That’s some pretty serious betting there…and I’d rather be conservative and, as a fan, I can only value prospects by whatever the legit sources tell me they’re worth.

    When Drabek was pitching late last season, EVERYONE here was salivating at the thought of having him in the rotation in the very near future. We all said: he is LEGIT, he will be a No.1 or a No.2 for sure, he is one of the best prospects in baseball, he was the one who looked the best amongst all pitchers at the Futures game… But now, SINCE WE TRADED HIM AWAY, we all think: Oh, he’ll probably be a No. 3, or even worse “I think Aumount has more upside than Drabek”..

    THAT IS COMPLETE BS. Drabek is >>>> Aumont. Drabek has tons more potential than Aumont, too. Be real.

    It just sounds to me like we’re trying to justify ourselves by saying stuff like that. I bet if we traded Aumont tomorrow for a big name, in a week the same suspects will be on here saying “Oh well, he projected as a reliever anyway” or “he doesn’t have a good secondary pitch, he’s not that great.”

     
  • Posts: 0 Don M

    and Clearly since Drabek is much closer to pitching in the Majors.. he’s rated that much higher as a prospect


    I think the Phillies like Sabastian Valle more than D’Arnaud anyway… neither is anywhere near ready to challange Carlos Ruiz . so they can add another 10 catchers to the farm system between now and the time they need someone to take Ruiz’s place

     
  • Posts: 0 Manny

    Well yea, cause Drabek did actually make it to AA and pitched there successfully… at least we know that he made that step and he excelled. Guys like Gillies, Ramirez, and Aumont have a lot of potential but they’re even more unproven because they’ve never been past single A ball. If they falter in AA, which is a strong possibility for anyone moving up in the minors, forget about these guys becoming elite prospects.

     
  • Posts: 0 Chuck

    Key phrase in the last few posts:

    “now working alongside Roy Halladay”

    Manny, I don’t think you realize just how HUGE that in itself is. The guy (Aumont) has tons of RAW TALENT….but now he gets to really how to PITCH.

     
  • Posts: 0 Chuck

    ^ really learn how to PITCH

    Sorry.

     
  • Posts: 0 Jeff of Nova

    I love this thread arguements on both sides.

    I am on the Drabek >>> Aumount side It would be great if Aumount can show what Drabek did last year, but there is still A lot of iffs.

    Drabek is not many days away from the bigs.

    I would have loved if they traded Lee to Seattle first and took Aumount and sent him to Seattle, they might have even tried that but would have loved it none the less.

     
  • Posts: 0 Jeff of Nova

    I meant Aumount to Toronto

     
  • Posts: 0 NJ

    You can’t just look at it in narrow terms now and go i want that guy and not the next one! Look at the Upton brothers, BJ was a higher rated prospect than Justin because he was older but Justin has exceeded BJ at the point BJ was at that point in his career.

    Drabek is older and more developed than Aumont. Almost everyone forgot Drabek when he had TJ surgery and jumped back on his badwagon after everyone else started saying how good he was coming back from it. Aumont was drafted a year after and is therefor a year less developed so give him a year+ to develop and then start getting out your war paint because the Drabek vs Aumont arguement now means nothing. It’s in some ways like saying who would you prefer Lincecum or Strasburg.

    And Drabek has tons more potential than Aumont are you freakin; kidding me? your just looking at the names and rep. Drabek is a small guy with skills and a year more under his belt, Aumont on raw talent is probably a top 5 pitching prospect in all of baseball. He is a giant with a fastball that could put you in a coma and a plus off-speed pitch and needs to learn how to pitch. It’s like Pedro vs Randy in their style and as a prospect you take that beast over the other every day and twice on sunday.

    What it comes down to is it took Drabek to get Halladay who’s far superior to Lee and then trading Lee you get Aumont who is likely to become every bit the prospect Drabek is given time to develop.

     
  • Posts: 0 Manny

    I really hope that has as big as an effect as you think… I think that what most guys in ST can learn from Roy is his strong work ethic… learning how to pitch itself..hmm it’s tough to tell. All I know is this: Roy is a pitcher not the pitching coach!

     
  • Posts: 0 NJ

    !!!!!ITS NOT DRABEK VS AUMONT!!!!!!!

    !!!!!WE DIDN’T TRADE DRABEK FOR AUMONT!!!!!!

    we traded Drabek for Halladay- win
    we traded Lee for Aumont instead of going to the draft.

    Who would you rather have?
    -Lee signed to a $100m+ deal and Drabek who hasn’t pitched a major league inning
    OR
    -Halladay for 5 years far below market value and Aumont who’s likely to accent to top prospect status near where Drabek is now given the time to develop since he’s only 21…

     
  • Posts: 0 Manny

    “It’s in some ways like saying who would you prefer Lincecum or Strasburg.”

    Ok, that’s easy: LINCECUM by a mile.

     
  • Posts: 0 Jeff of Nova

    Very True NJ,

    but once again it is an if. and all prospects are that, and you ask the question Strasburg or Lincecum, my answer Lincecum, why.. because we are winning now. Drabek could help us this year and next cheaply. Then be the number 1 after Halladay. Aumount could be in the bigs in 2-3 years or he could not, maybe he has to have TJ surgery. only time will tell.

    But that all being said I am fine with Aumount, because we have Halladay for the next 4 and the top 4 for the next 2.

    Remember last year when our staff was broken, before Lee and Pedro, I was on here talking about Drabek every day, cause we need to minor leaguer to come up and make a splash sooner than later. Now we don’t

    Halladay

     
  • Posts: 0 Don M

    I don’t think that anyone is saying that RIGHT NOW …. Drabek isn’t more of a sure thing … He is.

    But what I said, was that I thought Aumont had more “upside” … a chance to be a more dominant pitcher


    Taking their Minor League numbers into account

    Kyle Drabek (in 4 seasons).. 3.71 ERA, 1.26 WHIP … 7.6 K’s per 9 innings pitched
    Phillippe Aumount (in 2 seasons).. 3.31 ERA, 1.25 ERA.. 9.2 K’s per 9 ip

    of course right now, you would rather have Drabek, because he’s closer to contributing at the Major League level . . . but in the long run, Aumont just might be the better pitcher. Well have to wait and see. Aumont can’t even drink beers legally yet, so he has a long, long way to go

     
  • Posts: 0 Jeff of Nova

    No we didn’t but if we didn’t trade drabek for Halladay we would have Aumount.

     
  • Posts: 0 NJ

    Manny how many major league innings has Drabek pitched?

    I LOVED Drabek even recovering from TJ surgery but I don’t get how you can anoint him a HOFer and cast-off Aumont when Aumont is right now at the point Drabek was coming back from TJ surgery.

    How do you know Aumont won’t reach the level in 12-18th months time Drabek is at now??

    If your going to make it Drabek vs Aumont it’s who would you prefer- Drabek coming off TJ surgery or where Aumont is now.

     
  • Posts: 0 Jeff of Nova

    On the other side really the debate is

    Lee(1yr)/Drabek vs Halladay(4-5yr)/ Aumount

    I would have to go with the second

    I think we all wish it was

    Halladay (4-5yr)/Lee(1yr)

     
  • Posts: 0 Jeff of Nova

    Halladay trumps everything!!

     
  • Posts: 0 Don M

    Kyle Drabek gets HAMMERED by Lefty’s … he’s not yet ready to pitch in the big leagues

    maybe by the end of this year.. but not yet

    I want to see him do well, especially now that he’s in the American League and it wouldn’t hurt us.

    I think it would be cool in a few years to see Drabek pitch in Philly in an Interleague Game… but he’s not ready to step in and contribute to an MLB team…

     
  • Posts: 0 Jeff of Nova

    So can we have Lincecum too:)

     
  • Posts: 0 Jeff of Nova

    Like I said before I have come to terms with the deal and I am happy with what we have and looking forward to watching these prospects grow(hopefully)

    Time will tell on the prospects part of the deal, but Halladay is going to shine:)

     
  • Posts: 0 NJ

    “No we didn’t but if we didn’t trade drabek for Halladay we would have Aumount.”

    ARE YOU FREKAIN’ KIDDING ME??? your telling me you can get Roy Halladay for Kyle Drabek and get a prospect like Aumont back and your still gooey over Kyle Drabek kind of wishing the deal didn’t happen???

    Halladay for Drabek and Taylor is a MUCH better deal than Seattle got with Lee for Aumont, Lee is going to clean up on the free agent market and Seattle will be left with draft picks that aren’t as good as the guys we got from Seattle.

     
  • Posts: 0 NJ

    If we had kept Lee and let him walk for the picks and got left with what could be a 2nd or 3rd round draft pick plus the sandwich pick would we really have players that can step in in 2012?

    Remember the Brewers got a 2nd rounder for Sabathia and the Jays a 3rd for Burnett

     
  • Posts: 0 NJ

    guys remember its 5 years with Halladay- this year, 3 year extension and then an option year that WILL be exercised.

     
  • Posts: 0 Manny

    Wow Don, now you’re nitpicking. ANYTHING just to make your point that maybe Drabek isn’t as great as we all think –despite the tiny little fact that he’s ranked No. 25 in all of baseball.

    NJ, I know what you’re saying..and that’s exactly my point. Drabek now is more proven than Aumont –Aumont still hasn’t thrown a pitch above single A. You have to compare their value as of today, not what it was a year ago… As you say, it’s a POSSIBILITY that Aumont MIGHT reach Drabek’s level..and I agree with that statement… but he has not yet.. and he will have to really excel in AA to match Drabek value-wise… I’m trying to assess these guys for what they’re worth right now, not what they might be or what they were in the past.

     
  • Posts: 0 NJ

    Drabek is a great prospect now ranked 25th (if I remember rightly Carrasco was pretty near there at one point)… Amount could be 25th next year or the year after since he’s two years behind Drabek.

    The Phils don’t need a stud pitcher now, they need one in two years time when the payroll is higher than my blood pressure right now trying to make the point.

    What it comes down to is would you rather Halladay and Aumont in the rotation in 3 years time or Drabek and ??? from the draft pick… That’s a no brainer.

     
  • Posts: 0 NJ

    If your saying you want Drabek here then your saying you don’t want Halladay.

    The Lee deal was a SEPARATE one to re-stock the farm with likely better and more developed players than we would have got from the draft picks.

    Again it was Halladay or Drabek NOT Drabek or Aumont.

     
  • Posts: 0 Don M

    saying Drabek’s got a higher ERA, and less K’s per 9

    followed by the fact that Drabek isn’t yet ready to pitch in the Majors..

    is NITPICKING???

    Im still missing the part where I said that Drabek wasn’t good… this whole thing got started by my saying I think* Aumont has more “upside” …which I still think. I don’t expect anyone/everyone to agree.. .. that was just what I took from that trade, was that we were bringing in a younger guy, with the possibilty of a higher ceiling

    Again, as of right now.. Drabek is closer to a “sure thing” .. but I wonder what Aumont will look like when he’s 22 years old ?

     
  • Posts: 0 Don M

    we’re all arguing about different things..

    again.. I doubt anyone on here would say that RIGHT NOW.. Aumont is more vauable than Drabek

    but in two years.. Aumont could be ahead of where Drabek was when he was 22.. Aumont could be ahead of Drabek at 24… or Aumont could be watching hockey and wearing drinking Molson as a “never was”

     
  • Posts: 0 NJ

    …And either way Halladay will be ripping it up lik Ron Jeremy in Silicone Valley which is all that matters…

     
  • Posts: 0 Don M

    “ROCK OUT WITH YOUR DOC OUT”

     
  • Posts: 0 NJ

    And hang out with your Aumont out?

     
  • Posts: 0 Chuck

    I think it comes down to that “sexy” thing again.

    Let’s face it. Kyle Drabek has a sexy name. A FAMOUS name.

    People have annointed the guy as the sond coming of Jesus right from the beginning.

    I was upset that we lost him too. But I’m really, really happy with where we are now. And I hope Kyle has an awesome career and puts up some ridiculous numbers.

     
  • Posts: 0 George

    Manny, in “trying to assess these guys for what they’re worth right now, not what they might be or what they were in the past, you are failing to realize that ANY player’s perceived worth is not just based on the current season. That would be idiotic. In the case of prospects, scouts have to make “projections,” and those are always based on probable future performance.

    You just can’t compare two players for only one certain year, or compare several years to one and a half. You have to go by natural ability and makeup. I’m sure Phils’ scouts see a lot in Aumont, or they’d have asked for someone else. Drabek had already gone to get Halladay, so the comparison isn’t valid, anyway.

    One other thing: the fact that the Phils “stole” Lee–and remember, they also got a MLB caliber outfielder in the deal–may mean that other teams don’t think he’s all that great. The Phils may have done better on the Lee trade than we might be giving them credit for.

     
  • Posts: 0 Chuck

    To pick up on George’s argument, let’s say Cliff Lee has a bad year this year. Then what is his value??

    I’m not saying that he will necessarily have a bad year. My point is that maybe we got maximum value for him when it’s all said and done.

    That, in effect, would not only be a steal….but highway robbery.

    Give Ruben credit for pulling the strings he is. He’s not perfect but so far he’s earned my trust.

     
  • Posts: 0 Jeff

    Scotch Man is a moron. Give the trade a C. Drabek is a prospect with a bad arm you turd. DOC IS THE MAN BOY.

     
  • Posts: 0 Manny

    Everyone, my idea is not to piss all of you off.. I’m very happy that Halladay is on our team and I expect him to dominate. I just wanted to get across a few things:

    1) Stop thinking that Aumont is the next great thing cause the guy is currently ranked No. 93. That means that there are 92 better prospects in baseball today, including guys like Travis D’Arnaud, whom we never thought of as an “elite” prospect.

    2) Recognize the value we lost in the Halladay deal. It was a great deal for Toronto, especially given the circumstances. Taylor and especially Drabek ARE legit prospects. Perhaps you could say it was a win-win. But the point is: don’t undervalue a guy like Drabek NOW because he’s on a different team when a couple months ago everyone was high on him. That means: stop finding excuses to make yourselves think that maybe Aumont will be better. I won’t buy that one bit until a knowledgeable baseball source tells me otherwise.

     
  • Posts: 0 Chuck

    Manny, I don’t think anyone here is trying to UNDERVALUE Drabek. We all recognize his ability and potential as a legit major-league starter…..maybe THIS year.

    However, I think too many guys are definitely UNDERVALUING Aumont, who, like Don said has (and I’m paraphrasing) “tremendous” or maybe it was “more upside” POTENTIALLY than Drabek……in the LONG RUN.

    Who knows…..maybe they’re both future Cy Youngs and the whole thing is a win-win for everybody.

    And, don’t forget (I know you haven’t)…..we now have ROY HALLADAY!!!!!

     
  • Posts: 0 Chuck

    Also, just because some ranking has Aumont at #93 doesn’t necessarily mean that there are 92 better prospects ahead of him. Those rankings are arbitrary. Aumont could bust out of the shoot….have a killer spring and surge ahead of a lot of guys.

     
  • Posts: 0 NJ

    Manny sorry but thats more BS than you’ll find the cage of a bull in a zoo! When you say things like there are 92 prospects better than Aumont your saying what amounts to the Braves should have traded Tommy Hanson or Jason Hewyard for Teix because Feliz was a better prospect at the time. Was Jason Heyward the best prospect in baseball when he was drafted? No. Was Drabek in the top two years ago (which is the point Aumont is at now)? NO HE WASN’T.

    Scouts get a woody very few pitching prospects get right now when they look at where Aumont could be coming into the majors. You take the names off the back of the jersey and have Drabek and Aumont throw bullpen sessions next to eachother as prospects who haven’t pitched a major league game and Aumont will get his fair share of votes. No-ones saying Drabek isn’t a better prospect right now and will probably be but Halladay/Aumont is better than Lee/Drabek when you factor in the contracts.

    “Recognize the value we lost in the Halladay deal”-
    It was a great deal for Toronto, especially given the circumstances. EVERYONE inside baseball said the Phillies got a FANTASTIC deal for Halladay and that the Jays only saved face in the deal. Do you think guys like Buster Olney and Peter Gammons are wrong when ALL have exactly the same opinion??

    We ARE NOT undervaluing Drabek, he is a bluechip prospect who hasn’t pitched a SINGLE INNING in the majors for one of the best pitchers in the free agency era! In a separate deal we then acquired a YOUNGER, LESS DEVELOPED prospect with a far superior skillset to Drabek to OFF-SET the loss, not replace because we didn’t trade Drabek for Aumont period and if you believe we did your saying we made a mistake acquiring Roy Halladay.

    Your saying we’re nitpicking against Drabek about you won’t believe it till it comes from a credible source… Well who’s saying he’s undersized etc? It isn’t Don M or me or anyone here, it’s baseball scouts who’ve said the kids got the make-up but there are concerns for a guy who hasn’t pitched above AA. Oh and those same scouts raved over D’Arnaud from jump street and were just waiting for him to progress through the minors, Valle has that same billing.

    -Drabek, Taylor and D’Arnaud for Halladay was a GREAT deal
    -Amount, Gilles and Ramirez for impending free agent Cliff Lee was a good deal vs the two prospects we were likely to get in the 2011 draft.

     
  • Posts: 0 The Original Chuck P

    Wow… first, we did NOT trade those three guys for one year of Halladay because we would have never made that deal without that extension in place. I mean, Toronto can feel that way if they want to but the bottom line is that the market price for one year of Halladay was not what they were asking. Couple that with the fact that they weren’t eager to trade him within the division knowing that an extension was going to be required to get the prospects that they were looking for and it was almost a perfect situation for a team like ours to swoop him up. We also received $6 million in the deal… $6 million that allowed us to do a lot of things this offseason.

    Further, think about what we were willing to give up for Halladay for the stretch run last year… without an extension… we were all stir crazy. How many people said, “Pick any two of Happ, Drabek, Taylor and Brown and two fillers”? In the end, we stole Cliff Lee, made it to the World Series and held onto the guys that Toronto wanted until Halladay forced his way out of Toronto. Halladay will be in Philadelphia for the next four or five years.

     
  • Posts: 0 Griffin

    I’m with Manny. The prospects we got from Seattle aren’t as good as any of the prospects we gave up for Halladay.

    Aumont is not as good as Drabek. Stop saying that prospect rankings are “arbitrary”. They aren’t. They’re not Gospel, but they do have merit.

    Carlos Carrasco was never a top 50 prospect. He has disappointed a bit, but Carrasco is only 22! Can we stop calling him a total flop, he’s still incredibly young! Is Gavin Floyd a total bust of a prospect after he disappointed early on?

    The Lee trade was a disaster. The only way to justify it is by saying “well you never know with prospects” which is crap. The 2 draft picks would have 75% of the value that the 3 mediocre prospects have, plus you would get a full year of Cliff Lee. It’s not even close which side of that trade is better.

     
  • Posts: 0 NJ

    “The prospects we got from Seattle aren’t as good as any of the prospects we gave up for Halladay.”

    Well no kidding… Lee isn’t the pitcher Halladay is, not close… He isn’t even considered the best pitcher in Seattle.

    We gave to get Halladay, we got a fair chunk of it back trading Lee and it was a win every day of the week and twice on sunday…

     
  • Posts: 0 NJ

    Griffin sorry but that is trash on the prospects… Aumont is a top prospect, Ramirez and Gilles are prospects comparable to Carrasco and Bourn.

    The first draft pick would have been a late first rounder at BEST and could have been as little as a third if the signing team went shopping a la AJ Burnett (the Jays have lost two type A free agents in the past two off-seasons for a total of two sandiwch picks, a second and third). The Phils don’t have to pay the bonuses and know they have 3 prospects capable of making the majors. Brain Burke the Maple Leafs GM nailed it today in his press conference, he said every day I’m going to take the prospect who’s been in the system developing than the pick who you might not see at all.

    The Phils traded Lee because they needed to add to a pile of prospects capable of making the team next year and the year after at minimum salary when we need to pay our free agents, wasn’t going to be the case with the prospects. Look at the teams who may have been in play if Amaro hadn’t taken the Seattle deal and it wouldn’t touch on what we would have got. At most we would have got Westmorland who probably isn’t going to be as good a prospect as Aumont is likely to be and we would have got nothing else.

    We got a great deal for Halladay, we got a good one for Lee. It’s the consensus opinion of guys like Buster Olney now the dust has settled and isn’t Halladay/Lee mania

     
  • Posts: 0 Griffin

    NJ, I completely disagree. None of the prospects from the Mariners are “top prospects”.

    No one is disputing Halladay is better than Lee, but when you trade Cliff Lee making $9 milllion in 2010 when his value couldn’t be higher and you don’t even receive a top 75 prospect? I’m sorry, that is not good enough. I’d rather have Lee in ’10 and take the draft picks.

     
  • Posts: 0 NJ

    ummmm Aumont isn’t a top 75 pick right now… He’s likely to be a top 50 next year. He is considered a top prospect no matter how you spin it. He’s thought of now where Drabek was two years ago yet the moaning continues.

    The two other prospects are expected to be major league contributors. Do you really think the prospects would be worth it when you’d have to sink and extra couple of mil on each one to get get a prospect even in earshot of Aumont.

    Cliff Lee’s value was not anywhere near its highest, they guy probably hasn’t even unpacked his bag in his Seattle hotel room. He’s going to make $100m and go to a team that will be drafting at the end of the first round who if they go on a shopping spree will crush that pick down to what could amount to drafted about 40th and 50th if not lower, the Blue Jays compensation for Burnett who’s comparable was 37th and 99th… Would you still say you’d rather take those.

    Aumont- Has only just turned 21 and has a better ERA, WHIP and K/9 rate than Drabek, oh and is a 6’7 left with a power sinker in the high nineties and a plus off-speed pitch already.
    Gillies- Aged 20 in 230+ minor league games has 70+ RBI’s and steals, over 100 walks, a .321 average with a .447SLG% and an .866 OPS
    Ramirez is viewed from the right side what Bastardo as a guy who will stick in the majors as a set-up man with a good fastball and off-speed pitch or a middle of the rotation starer.

    The Yankees weren’t going to give a top prospect, the Sox might have given a Westmorland but nothing more, the Angels were not going to give a top pitching prospect, the Dodgers didn’t have anything to give that compares to what Seattle gave up and who else was going to make a play for Lee AND give a top prospect and support package for one year of Lee? His value was rock bottom for an upper tier pitcher just like Johan.

    If the Phillies had kept Lee this year and taken the picks the window would slam shut so fast after the 2011 season you’ll think you’d broken your nose.

     
  • Posts: 0 NJ

    I’ve got to say I can’t wait till two years down the line when Baseball America’s prospect rankings comes out and is further littered with guys who’ve been in the Phillies system- Aumont, Gillies, Gose, May, Valle, Galvis, Singleton and there’s 3 or 4 players from rookieball expected to be of that ilk.

    I guarantee you Gillies will be higher than where D’Arnaud is right now (Gillies already has a higher SLG% than the ‘power-bat’ catcher) Aumont will be near where Drabek is if not higher and this board will be creaming itself over him.

     
  • Posts: 0 Griffin

    Players don’t get ranked higher just because they get older. There are plenty of guys drafted out of high school that get ranked highly. If players progress and improve as they get older, they will be ranked higher.

    I hope you’re right about all the prospects you’ve mentioned, but I think you are describing “best case” scenarios.

     
  • Posts: 0 NJ

    Well Gillies numbers cannot be ignored, he’s on the rise like Ron Jeremy on the way to work.

    Aumont’s stock is going up not down, the kids got a K/9 rate near tear and a sub 3.5 ERA with a 1.25 WHIP, his values going up not down.

     
  • Posts: 0 NJ

    ^and on the flipside Drabek’s only year anywhere near this high on the rankings has been this one. Taylor was a complete unknown until he started clubbing the ball for fun and D’Arnaud was thought to have been a disappointment by most Phillies fans to this point…

    You lose (one year of) Lee, Drabek and Taylor, get Halladay, Aumont and Gillies… It’s a win! Be Happy

     
 
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