Is Derrek Lee an Upgrade?
Posted by Corey Seidman, Wed, August 18, 2010 02:14 PM | Comments: 41
Posts
While not official as of this post, a trade of Derrek Lee from the Cubs to the Braves for mid-level prospects appears imminent.
Lee has struggled mightily in 2010, but save for a month so has Troy Glaus, the first baseman he’ll be replacing.
In 475 plate appearances with the Cubs, Lee has produced an ugly .251/.335/.416 slash-line that may be passable for a catcher, but surely not at the game’s best offensive position.
Don’t judge this trade based on the “name value” of Derrek Lee. He hasn’t been the same player.
A large part of Lee’s lack of success in 2010 has been due to his low Home Run/Fly Ball ratio, which I cannot imagine will improve too much with Lee going from a hitter’s park in Wrigley to a pitcher’s park in Turner Field.
Lee’s defense, a part of his game that was universally praised for the entirety of his prime, is also deteriorating. In an interview with Harry Pavlidis of CubsFX.com on this very site some weeks back, Pavlidis made it clear that Lee’s range and reaction time at first base was eroding.
When you couple an OPS 6% worse than league average with worsening defense at the easiest defensive position, you realize that this version of Derrek Lee is not exactly a world-beater.
Typically, we would look at Lee’s production and declare him an aging 34-year-old vet whose best days are behind him. However, Lee had the second best year of his career (.972 OPS) last year at age 33, and had two solid seasons at ages 32 and 31.
Even though this might not be a pure case of “Player X on the Decline,” it doesn’t really matter for the Braves one way or another, because Lee is only under contract for seven more weeks. Maybe he’ll return to form next year, but it probably will not be in a Braves uniform, so all that matters is that in 2010, he’s been half the player he once was.
If this was a definitive “change of scenery” case, Lee could be a solid producer for Atlanta down the stretch, but through 109 games, he has possessed all of the same flaws as Glaus.
Lee has OPSed .751, Glaus .749. Both have hit into 16 double plays. Both have struck out between 95-100 times. Both have swung at more pitches out of the strike zone this season than any other in their careers.
(Although oddly enough, despite the career highs in that last stat, Lee and Glaus still rank 1 and 2 respectively among NL first baseman in fewest swings outside the zone).
Glaus has been worth 0.4 WAR – very close to replacement level – and Lee has been worth 1.1 WAR, still an inadequate number.
I won’t get into defensive statistics to compare the two because UZR, an already shaky stat, is even more suspect in its judgment of first baseman. Suffice it to say, Lee, even with deteriorating defensive skills, will be a better fielder than Glaus, who has absolutely zero lateral movement.
So there you have it – it’s a slight upgrade defensively (Lee will save about 4 runs in the field), and probably a wash offensively.
As I said, if this was a pure change of scenery type of thing for Lee, it could provide the Braves with a *small* boost, but keep in mind that it takes Glaus’ rare punch out of the lineup. It’s not like Atlanta added to their lineup without subtracting, and it’s not as if the Braves obtained a player with a different, more useful skill set.
This trade was the equivalent of replacing a ripped $10 bill with one that has permanent marker all over it.
Posts: 0 mdhenshaw
What are both of these players stats since the All Star Break? Which lineup offers better protection: the Cubs or the Braves?
Once you’ve answered both of those questions you’ll realize this is much better than a wash.
Posted: 02:26 PM on August 18, 2010
Posts: 0 The Dipsy
As they used to say in my old fantasy league. a trade like this “isn’t even worth the transaction fee”.
Do we have Brian Fuentes yet?
The Dipsy
Posted: 02:36 PM on August 18, 2010
Posts: 0 Bart Shart
Lee is an upgrade defensively. Offensively …. I don’t think so.
Posted: 02:37 PM on August 18, 2010
Posts: 0 Andrew from Waldorf
They are grasping.
they get Derek Lee. We g Ryan Howard back.
win Phillies
Its a nothing trade I agree. Does show me that the Braves do see that freight train in thier rearviewmirror.
Lee is a good charachter locker room guy though.
Posted: 02:57 PM on August 18, 2010
Posts: 0 JDub
ATL has to make this move. It doesn’t make them better than they were a month ago. But a month ago they had Chipper manning third base. The Braves are likely to move Glaus to third because he’s seen action there in the past and bring in Lee to fill the whole at first. It’s pretty simple and probably necessary.
Makes me wonder about the farm system down there that they couldn’t make this shuffle with players within the organization. It doesn’t bode well for the Braves near future.
Posted: 02:57 PM on August 18, 2010
Posts: 0 Mark B
As long as there’s no upgrade for the Braves, they can get whoever they want.
Posted: 03:01 PM on August 18, 2010
Posts: 0 Andrew from Waldorf
pan·ic
n.
1. A sudden, overpowering terror, often affecting many people at once.
Posted: 03:01 PM on August 18, 2010
Posts: 0 SpinJamin
I love the break down of this supposed trade and what it brings to the Braves. I highly agree that this is hardly some big news deal that is going to change the face of the race. I’m also not going to suggest that this is a weak attempt by the Braves to do something. This is a pretty solid move for the Braves depending on what they give up. This move will certainly not hurt them.
My point is that a change of scenery can be huge for anyone having a bad year. Just look at Pat Burrell. Also it doesn’t necessarily take Glaus’ bat out of the lineup as he can also play third base.
Posted: 03:02 PM on August 18, 2010
Posts: 0 Andrew from Waldorf
Re: tonights game. Not looking too great.
Hope some can keep us updated here.
http://www.weather.com/weather/today/Citizens+Bank+Park+PA+38887:20
Posted: 03:04 PM on August 18, 2010
Posts: 0 TnBrian
Whatever blog writer. Lee and almost anybody else is better than an aching, breaking Troy Glaus. Sounds like a scared Phillies writer that is trying to calm Phillies fans nerves because we’re already in 1st and Lee WILL help out more than Glaus was the last few months. With or wothout Derek Lee, the Braves will go to the playoffs with all our pitching and timely hitting we’ve been getting. Just got to keep that up and I see no reason to think that they won’t.
Posted: 03:31 PM on August 18, 2010
Posts: 0 mdhenshaw
Glaus will not be moved to 3B. Prado will play 3B, Infante at 2B. Both of those players are playing very well offensively and defensively. The Braves have a great prospect in AAA that plays 1B, but he’s left-handed. The Braves need a power hitting RH bat in the lineup.
Posted: 03:31 PM on August 18, 2010
Posts: 0 Bacardipr05
CAN THE BRAVES PLEASE START LOSING…PLEASE AND THANK YOU VERY VERY MUCH….
Posted: 03:39 PM on August 18, 2010
Posts: 0 The Few, The Proud, The Braves
1.1 WAR compared to .4 is an upgrade.
Posted: 03:42 PM on August 18, 2010
Posts: 0 Andrew from Waldorf
LOL @ TnBRian
Very scared here. Now thats a good one.
Was watching MLB TV on the 1993 season. Braves won 104 games that year. Heavily favored vs the Phils in NLCS.
and…
Braves fan enjoy your team. You should make the playoffs. But you arent a threat to any AL team. Really arent a threat to make the WS. You have a little bit of the swagger here in the reg season. But the Phils are just getting into their swagger. Its time to start playing.
Lee is about like the Phils getting Sweeney. Did that scare you?
You did come here with more class than Mets trash so thank you and lets have a fun pennant race.
Posted: 03:45 PM on August 18, 2010
Posts: 0 therookie300
I still got the Phils winning the East. the Braves will put up a fight, but the will get run down. It’s only a matter of time.
Posted: 03:45 PM on August 18, 2010
Posts: 0 PHLPVD
Lee may have good numbers since the All Star break, but that was before he developed a bulging disc in his back (this is also probably the only reason the Braves haven’t pulled the trigger on the trade). Unless that clears up fast I have to expect him to continue to struggle, in which case this is more or less a lateral transaction.
Posted: 03:57 PM on August 18, 2010
Posts: 0 psujoe
I think it’s a clear upgrade. Lee is hitting .313 over his last 104 PA with 6 hrs (96 ABs) which is 1 to 16 ratio. Glaus on the other hand is hitting .196 in his last 117 PAs with only 2 HRs (102 ABs).
Posted: 04:21 PM on August 18, 2010
Posts: 0 The Original Chuck P
You forgot to mention the fact that Derrek Lee has been out since Monday with back pain… he received an epidural on Monday (for those of you that don’t have children, epidurals are what women get when they are in labor… big nasty needles).
Both players on a good day… Lee is better than Glaus. At this point in time, neither can be considered dependable. This is their last hurrah… he could help them but this is not a huge move by any stretch of the imagination.
Posted: 04:26 PM on August 18, 2010
Posts: 0 jeff
isolated thunderstorms tonight. oh no, lets hide. please….the game will be played. maybe a delay but thats it. if we are lucky to have it pour so we dont have to see joe blanton. g-d crys when he sees him pitch. he is just aweful. trade or release. next.
Posted: 04:27 PM on August 18, 2010
Posts: 0 Manny
The guy’s having a great August… I think it’s an upgrade. However, his “bulging disk in his lower back” might break him down. Who knows.
Posted: 04:27 PM on August 18, 2010
Posts: 0 Daniel
Hey there Phillies fans, lifetime Braves fan here just to give you my perspective.
Getting Lee is a bit of a gamble on our part, but it’s a good one. We know we need a power hitter to replace Chipper, and Lee is one of the best options that we have at this point. Glaus is an okay player, but is very streaky at the plate. Even having a down year, Lee is a step up as his replacement. The “change of scenery” is what I imagine our front office is hoping on.
As for the race as a whole, all us Braves fans know what all you Phillies fans certainly know by now. The NL East race is going to come down to those last two series next month and at the beginning of October. As for my guess, I think one of our teams will be getting the Wild Card and will likely meet again in the NLCS if either of us are able to get past the Padres. Should be a lot of fun!
Posted: 04:32 PM on August 18, 2010
Posts: 0 The Original Chuck P
I think that the Braves will be right there until the end… their pitching is too good for them to fade BUT when you break it down, they just don’t have the horses. They’re scoring runs and winning games using smoke and mirrors… there is only one position player on the Braves that would even start for the Phillies (Brian McCann). Infante, Prado, Heyward, Gonzalez… they’re nice but they’re certainly not Utley, Polanco, Werth and Rollins. Hinske, Ankiel, Glaus/Lee… really? I’m not saying your team is bad but side by side, there is no comparison… we’re just better than you
Posted: 04:34 PM on August 18, 2010
Posts: 0 Brooks
Ahh, the news did bring some of the Braves fans out of the woodwork, looking for some light, grasping desperately for anything (anyone) they can build a team on because they know there is not much of a foundation there to work with.
This looks like Derek Lee’s worst season (bar injury) yet. He may hit 25 hrs and may top 80 rbi but his average is at .251 for the year. OK, in the series just played against the Cards, he hit 4 hrs in 3 games, knocked in 4 runs and had a total of 5 hits. Even if Lee were to approach his average production in power, rbi stats & average, it would not be enough to boost this offense to where it can be competitive with the Phils down the stretch.
My prediction:
Atlanta will not make the Post Season this year, the division will belong to the Phils once again and the WC will come out of the West.
Posted: 04:36 PM on August 18, 2010
Posts: 0 The Original Chuck P
Best case scenario tonight… and certainly possible…
It starts to rain in the third inning and the game is delayed forcing both starting pitchers out of the game. Cheeseburger retires to the buffet and a well-rested Contreras comes in and gives us three good innings… Cain watches helplessly as Santiago Casilla and Chris May serve up meatballs and the game is out of hand by the 6th.
Posted: 04:38 PM on August 18, 2010
Posts: 0 biz
Do we have Brian Fuentes yet?
______________
You keep writing that, yet with each passing game it becomes less relevant.
Posted: 04:43 PM on August 18, 2010
Posts: 0 George
I wouldn’t rule out the “change of scenery” as a factor. Lee has been playing for years for a team that invents ways to keep losing. He’s had people like Milton Bradley and Carlos Zambrano as teammates. His manager, Piniela, has a reputation for being prone to tirades (although he has seemed more mellow the past few years). Lee could find his new surroundings so much more relaxing that he’ll go on a tear.
Posted: 04:51 PM on August 18, 2010
Posts: 0 psujoe
If it rains on and off get ready for a lot of David Herndon.
Posted: 05:00 PM on August 18, 2010
Posts: 0 Manny
Original, that would be swell, as long as Cheeseburger doesn’t give up too many runs in the first inning!
Posted: 05:01 PM on August 18, 2010
Posts: 0 The Original Chuck P
I agree that Lee has had to endure horrible teammates and bad situations and I have always liked him but he’s not getting any younger and changing scenery isn’t going to help his back. I just don’t see him carrying them into the playoffs… he’s the JV version of Chipper Jones at first base. Maybe you’re seeing something that I don’t… they’re going to have to give him plenty of days off down the stretch and they still have no offensive production in CF and LF. He’s certainly worth the risk to the Braves but I highly doubt this risk will pay off.
My $0.02.
Posted: 05:09 PM on August 18, 2010
Posts: 0 ArizonaSteve
braves system….yes, their system must be hurting the numbers that “prospect” Freeman is putting up in AAA are terrible….and he is pretty old, to boot…
Posted: 05:56 PM on August 18, 2010
Posts: 0 Scott
if you compare Glaus’ and Lee’s stats they look similar – if you, you know, try to add any context and look deeper, then i think you’ll find that the braves are making an upgrade. glaus’ stats are only that high because of a 5 week period in May and early june where he completely raked it – the rest of the season, he’s been terrible. D Lee started off really slow the first two months and has been progressing ever since, and has really come on strong the past two months.
Posted: 05:58 PM on August 18, 2010
Posts: 0 MikeUNCG
You Philly fans are so delusional.. Brooks: you saying there is “not much of a foundation there to work with” is truly appalling and is horribly wrong, any real baseball fan would slap you for such a comment when the Braves have perhaps the rookie with the brightest future in Jason Heyward, and other rising stars in Tommy Hanson, Jair Jurrjens, Prado and Venters. Amazing depth in the minors (Freeman, Teheran, Vizcaino, Kimbrel) and another stud young rook in Mike Minor.
Our foundation for the future begins with Jason Heyward, perhaps the best player for a team to build it’s future foundation around in the majors given his age
Posted: 06:17 PM on August 18, 2010
Posts: 0 Wren
We are also working on deals for Mike Lowell, Juan Pierre and Luis Castillo. Your Nate Bump interests us as well.
Posted: 06:31 PM on August 18, 2010
Posts: 0 jeff
bobby cox just smoked his 2nd pack today. poor bobby.
Posted: 06:33 PM on August 18, 2010
Posts: 0 SDO
Why would a team trade for a player recently diagnosed with back pain severe enough to require an epidural??
————————
A bulging disk is a condition related to the spine, usually the lumbar, or lower back, that occurs when a disk bulges through a crevice in the spine. Disks are the soft, gelatinous material that cushions the vertebrae of the spine. A bulging disk occurs when the disk shifts out of its normal radius and most often occurs simply as a result of age.
A bulging disk is different from a herniated disk in that a bulging disk typically occurs gradually over time rather than suddenly. A herniated disk is often the result of an injury or trauma to the spine. In the majority of patients who experience a bulging disk, there is no pain unless the disk becomes herniated or protrudes into a nerve.
In many cases, a bulging disk may be diagnosed as a condition secondary to another problem. Because a bulging disk does not always cause pain, it may only be found during a routine or diagnostic imaging test such as magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Typically, a bulging disk is not a problem unless it begins to cause pain, becomes herniated or ruptures.
Posted: 06:34 PM on August 18, 2010
Posts: 305 Corey Seidman
Scott – going along with your theme, LEE’s stats are only as high as they are because of a several week period taking place right now in which Derrek has raised his avg from .233 to .251, his OPS from the .690s to .750.
You can’t dismiss one player’s hot period without dismissing the other’s.
Posted: 07:11 PM on August 18, 2010
Posts: 0 Andrew
Funny that most “fans” value Mccann more than Ruiz. To me the Phillies biggest advantage is at catcher.
If the Braves missed the playoffs id not be shocked. If the Phillies did I would be shocked. But nice to see some Braves fans here for some friendly bantor. Anything is better than Mets pukes.
Posted: 07:22 PM on August 18, 2010
Posts: 0 Tessa
Hey Phillie fans…just another Braves fan here for friendly conversation. I think the deal is an upgrade in terms to numbers this year and for the extra options the Braves need after Chipper’s injury. Glaus is actually on the DL and will play 3rd base for Gwinnett so there will be times Glaus and Lee are in the lineup together. The injury to Lee is concerning but its the best they could get since it is past the trade deadline. For those curious:
Lee’s #s by month: average, obp
April- .205, .327
May- .257, .352
June- .237, .308
July – .281, .330
August- .306, .381
Glaus
April- .194, .310
May – .330, .408
June- .237, .364
July- .182, .312
August- .208, .255
Posted: 08:00 PM on August 18, 2010
Posts: 0 Land Shark
This move proves that the Braves are scared of us. Maybe if they signed Lee 2-3 years ago this move would be a threat, but Lee just doesn’t have it anymore, sorry
Posted: 08:37 PM on August 18, 2010
Posts: 0 Tony F
Can someone explain to me why there is a trading deadline at the end of July if a team can apparently trade for anyone after the deadline.
Posted: 10:11 PM on August 18, 2010
Posts: 0 Andrew from Waldorf
Tony F
a player must clear waivers.
An old player on the decline like Lee with a big contract is going to clear waivers. Once they have they are then able to be traded to anyone. Because every team had a chance to claim him and didnt.
As a Phillies fan. Be happy the braves traded some prospects for a 34 year with a bad back making a ton of money.
We could have claimed him off waivers but didnt. You dont want him at that price. For instance Adam dunn was claimed by 18 teams when the Nats put him through waivers. So they just took him back. The white sox got Alex Rios last year when they claimed him and the Jays decided to say good bye to him and his bloated contract.
Posted: 11:12 PM on August 18, 2010