Phillies Nation

I miss todays game i fell asleep. However I loved JA Happ and hated to see him go. I think Happ will be a real decent pitcher in the very very near future. Now if only them Braves can lose a few so we can catch them. I dont expect the Phils to sweep the JV team however we need 3 out of 4

I think JA Happ will be a bust. He is injury prone, 28 years old and I feel that the Phils stole a Cy Young caliber pitcher from the Astros who will give us three more excellent years. I hope Happ becomes a star. He was a nice player, but I felt his time on the disabled list showed that he is not a fast healer and last year in the playoffs, he was also injured. Just one man’s opinion and I have been wrong before.

The best par of the Happ trade is all the management haters had no choice but to put shut up. Once again the Phils made the crucial trade at the deadline. What more could you want? And Oswalt will be right here next year. While Cliff lee is pitching for the Yankees.

A time will come in next 3-5 years when the Phils will have to turn this team over. Not having the resources of the Yank and Sox we will have a difficult time an will go through a bunch of mediocre teams in that time been. This is what i worry abouth but for now go PHILS!

The Phillies had their 15th team shutout last night. To me, this is so key as the power numbers are down across the board. This not only means a terrific effort by the starting pitchers but also the rear end of the BP which has been one of the targets we focus on when the team is not performing (include me!) well.

And looking at is objectively, how are they doing this? Madson has been what we hoped for but his velocity is down. Lidge, in the month of August is truly “Lights Out”. 7 for 7 in closing situations, 0 ERA, only 3 hits no walks and 8 K’s in 8 appearances (7.1 IP). His velocity is considerably down.

Is it Chooch? Is it the coaching? And another question – comparing the team pitching stats over the last decade or so, which team sported the best ERA? Phils team ERA is at 3.88 (behind the Muts – 3.62, behind the Braves – 3.43).

I, too, feel that Happ is an injury concern. It wasn’t just this year that he’s had a forearm problem, but one of his minor league years was also spent largely on the DL for the same reason. He also missed time last year with a ribcage strain.

While I hope he has continued success, I think the front office was wise to risk trading him. Even if he remains healthy, he’s probably only a #3 starter. Oswalt is a #2 at least.

I don’t really think the Phils stole Oswalt, though. He was what the team needed NOW. They gave up a talented pitcher to get him, injury concerns or not. This trade could still haunt them later if Oswalt retires (which he’s hinted at) and Happ keeps pitching anything like he did in 2009.

Oswalt is a stud… plain and simple. Happ was a guy that overachieved in his rookie campaign and we were able to turn him over for a top tier pitcher that wasn’t happy where he was… and that, my friends, is so often the foundation of a good trade (buy low, sell high). He’s a #3, at best and I’m not even sure about that.

The Phillies did as much to hurt JA Happ as they did to help him. They jerked him around and never really showed confidence in him and I think he fed off of that but all of that leads to bad stuff down the road. The injury concern is real and after teams have seen him a little more, I’m not so sure that he’ll keep that edge that has made him successful. The expectations in Houston are a lot different than they are here. I would love to see Happ do well but it’s not a great situation for JA.

JA is a young lefty under control… a bargain for Houston and something that they can build on. Unfortunately, we didn’t have a need for bargains and we didn’t have the time to let him work out the kinks. We did what we had to do to solidify our spot at the head of the table and we’ve been eating ever since.

@branderson …everytime I’ve been in philly this summer, I’ve been at losing games as well. I’ve come to the conclusion I am simply a bad luck charm.

Our top three are quite good, but instead of making comparisons with other teams I’d like to look at what is humanly possible for these three along with Joe B and Kyle in terms of wins and losses for the rest of the year.

I believe that with 39 games left we can reasonably expect to see Roy, ROy2 and Cole 8 times each. Either Kyle or Joe will have to give up a start. Doc could win 6 of 8, Roy2 could win 5, Cole could finally get some luck and win 5. That’s 16 wins and hopefully a few no D’s for those three. If Kyle and Joe continue at present rate the best we can expect is 3 wins each. That’s 21 wins. If we get really lucky we could get 5 wins from mid and late relief, that’s 26 W’s or a record of 26-13. (Final 96-65)

So the question then becomes- what will the Braves do? They have only 38 games left, and for us to overtake them with a 26-13 record they’d need to go no better than 22-16. Is that realisitic? I’m not sure.

I say to be safe we need 97 to 98 wins. In my projections our big three would have to be superhuman to do it. Either Doc goes 7-1 or Cole and Roy2 go 6-2. If we play really good D, and continue to play smart ball I think we can. The tough part will be the west coast swing.

Anyone have different ideas about projected W-L scenarios for the pitchers and the team? Are my numbers reasonable?

Lefty, what about taking the Ryan Howard 2nd half surge into consideration? (of which I’m sure will happen.) But overall, you seem to hit the numbers right.

Lefty, I agree with the end numbers, but not the route. I think the Phils will give up the division if reasonably assured of the wild card, and will rest the big 3 down the stretch (same with Atl). I’d be surprised to see the Roys or Hamels pitch more than 7 games, and probably will be held to a pitch count (may already be seeing that based upon Halladay’s Fri night game). If we can split the west coast swing, feel real good about 25 wins, and that should take the wild card. Then it will all come down to the final Atl series. Both teams can clinch a spot by then, may not see a top of the order starter in the whole series.

I’d like to address the issue of Happ – I liked the kid too but not that much. The Phils gave him run support and he needed it. I got to see Happ pitch a number of times last year and I still am not really sure how he managed an ERA under 3. The lone time I saw him pitch this year, opposition was tuned in and hitting the ball hard just right at someone, I feel he was lucky to come away with a win. I mean balls were being hit hard all over the place but the Phils were chasing them down.

Do I feel he is injury prone? Why would I yet?

I think the Phils did well to trade him and made out for the better.

The Padres have a league leading 3.26 team ERA. That is why they have the best record in the NL.

Lefty – 97 wins will probably lock it up. The last 25 games of the regular season that the Phils play are vs our own division. Although on paper it may seem like nothing to worry about, no one in the division is dominating the other clubs – it will be a very close race to the end which I am confident that the Phils will pull this one out.

The Phils have 9 games left in August – 4 at home vs the Strohs – and we are 3-0 vs them so far. Then off to the West coast to face the Dodgers and the Padres. Time for some bats to step up, specifically the Big Man – the pitching needs to hang in there and the big money players need to catch on fire. We should sweep our way into the NL east, again. Frankly, I don’t care who we face in the NLDS or NLCS – both teams are in our sights. WS 10 here we come!

bfo-33,
I’m not saying you are wrong, you may very well be right. But my take is that the wild card race is a dicey thing. For instance- lets just say the Giants get hot, and we go into San Diego and win that series, but in doing so put them into the Wild Card chase, then they may be the leaders in that race. That’s just an example, but the Cards, the Reds, –IMO there are just too many possibilities. I think we have to go for the division to be assured of making the playoffs. I think we have to use our top three to the max, otherwise there may be no post season. There is plenty of time to rest all winter, just my opinion.

I was definitely critical of the Cliff Lee trade….But I am more than happy with having Oswalt over Lee in the long run.A management home run on this deal.Great price too.
I guess sometimes we have to look ahead 2 or 3 moves or trades ahead to see a pattern from the front office.

The Original Chuck P

Thank god the Phillies aren’t off tonight then!

ocp-the phillies play tonight………

The Phills will not pass the Braves. Not gonna happen, folks. The Braves pitching is too strong and we get plenty of timely hits for wins. Our defense is strong enough and we have Bobby Cox, not hick boy Manuel leading the way.

BravoMan, the Phillies are in control of their own destiny with all of the games against the Braves at the end of the year. Don’t be so confident. This race is coming down to the wire.

I hate to say it, but we are not going to take over the division from the Braves. Our hitting is still too inconsistent; we still have games where a mediocre pitcher totally shuts us down. The Braves have the look of a team of destiny–like the Phillies in past seasons they pull out game after game where they seem to be down for the count. They have not had injury problems (except for Chipper, who wasn’t contributing like he has in past years anyway). It just isn’t in the karma this season. I only hope that we can ride the wild card into the playoffs.

Sportsphan – or like OCP said, BravoMan – the Phils have won 22 out of their last 29. This is without a consistent offense. This is without the big innings, big hrs that we know they are capable of.

Don’t worry, you will be eating our dust soon enough.