Chase of Postseasons Past
Posted by Paul Boye, Fri, October 22, 2010 04:00 PM | Comments: 423
Analysis, Posts
To say Chase Utley is having a rough go of it this postseason would be, well, an understatement. After Thursday’s 1-for-4 in the Phillies’ pivotal Game 5 victory, Utley is hitting just .200/.286/.300 in the 2010 playoffs. His lone extra-base hit was a solo home run in Game 2 of the NLDS against Cincinnati, and all of this goes without mentioning Chase’s normally stellar defense has now taken a turn for the quaky. Suffice to say, Chase’s lack of production is concerning.
We’ll leave speculation as to any potential lingering health issues for those more expert in diagnosing such things, and instead look at what makes this 2010 postseason so different for Chase.
Respect once again to the crew at Baseball Analytics for their superb analytical tool and the production of these super spiffy graphics. But before we get to the eye candy, a straight-up look at Utley’s slash stats for the 2008, 2009 and 2010-to-date playoffs.
2008: 14 G, 64 PA, .220/.391/.460, 3 HR, 13 BB (1 IBB), 14 K
2009: 15 G, 66 PA, .296/.424/.648, 6 HR, 12 BB (1 IBB), 12 K
2010: 8 G, 35 PA, .200/.286/.300, 1 HR, 3 BB (1 IBB), 4 K
Obviously, Chase is at a full series’ worth of games’ disadvantage on ’08 and ’09, and none of these is fully representative of The Man. But this goes beyond the numbers (which are still concerning, small sample and all), because something about Chase just seems off. Well, it does to me, at least.
The first red flag is Chase’s diminished slugging, sitting at a tidy, robust .300, piggybacking on the regular season, when Chase posted a .445 SLG, lowest since his rookie year. Let’s take a look at some of those pretty heat maps now, eh? These are Utley’s SLG on balls in play by pitch location in the postseason.
Top row: 2008, 2009
Bottom row: 2010
There are a couple of interesting things to note here. As 2008 and 2009′s maps show us, Chase cared very little for pitchers trying to paint the outside corner. From the outer third of the plate to the furthest extent of Utley’s balls in play, Chase slugged .560 and .938 in 2008 and 2009, respectively. In 2010, that number plummets to .188, reestablishing the outer edge of the plate as a zone of attack for opposing pitchers. Chase it still putting those outside pitches in play, but is barely inflicting any damage.
Another pattern evident in previous postseasons is Chase’s patience for the fastball. Chase drew 23 unintentional walks in the ’08 and ’09 playoffs, getting himself on base even when his balls in play didn’t fall, making himself effective in ’08 despite the .220 average. When Chase did get a pitch to hit – a fastball anywhere in the strike zone – he made pitchers pay. Utley’s SLG on fastballs in the zone in the last three sets of playoff series:
2008: .941
2009: 1.286
2010: .222
The Phillies have gotten this far by way of their pitching muscle and a few timely hits, but they’re going to need their franchise second baseman to step up if they want to keep playing.
Disclaimer: I am not advocating trading Chase Utley in any way, shape or form, as a notable radio host seems to advocate considering. That’s lunacy. Just dissecting a cold streak, that’s all. Also, photo of Chase via the AP.
Posts: 0 JAY-AKA-PHILLYBOY
GUYS ITS BEEN A BLAST TO BLOG HERE ALL YEAR!!
Posted: 11:43 PM on October 23, 2010
Posts: 0 jt
Really though ryan was gonna come through there can’t believe he struck out here’s to a season of ups and downs that didn’t end the way we wanted but non the less still a fun season go rangers give then an a s s kickin.
Posted: 11:43 PM on October 23, 2010
Posts: 0 Bart Shart
You are now witnessing the decline of Ryan Howard, the Philadelphia Phillies (500 team next year) and Phillies baseball. How many fans will stick around for an old mediocre team? Time to rebuild.
Posted: 11:43 PM on October 23, 2010
Posts: 0 AC in NJ
Kate – I’m semi proud of them. But they let way, way to many chances slip away in this series, especially tonite. Should have been playing tomorrow.
Posted: 11:43 PM on October 23, 2010
Posts: 0 bda
I have a ton of respect for the Phillies team, very impressive series. For you whiners tho, all i can say is learn what it is to be a real fan. i hope all the moves you asked for about your team come true and all you’re has beens come here to SF – they will be welcomed with open arms. Congrats to the Phillies for a fine season.
Posted: 11:44 PM on October 23, 2010
Posts: 0 Bart Shart
I love the Phils and take my hat off to the Giants. They deserved to win.
We are fortunate to have these past four seasons of successful baseball in Philly. Now we need to rebuild.
Posted: 11:44 PM on October 23, 2010
Posts: 0 Kate
Actually, I’m hoping for the sake of the Rangers organization that they do win the World Series. Lee is more likely to stay around and Nolan Ryan and company can really start building something in that organization.
Rangers in FOUR.
Posted: 11:44 PM on October 23, 2010
Posts: 0 AGH
Disgraceful–holding Jimmy at 3rd on the double by Howard. Not stealing with Victorino or Jimmy in the 8th or 9th. Francisco with an awful at bat with Ibanez on 3rd and 1 out. Lack of aggression, lack of execution–Cholly has way too much confidence in his guys.
Posted: 11:44 PM on October 23, 2010
Posts: 0 ChuckS
I am to heart broken to be proud, give me sometime. For the time being I am solely going to blame Danys Baez.
Posted: 11:45 PM on October 23, 2010
Posts: 0 JAY-AKA-PHILLYBOY
ANDREW,MIKE,LEFTY KATE,BOSTONKATE,CHUCK,CHUCKAND THE OTHER CHUCK,AC,AND ALL THE OTHER REGULARS,I HOPE TO SEE YOU GUYS AGAIN NEXT YEAR,BEEN A BLAST!
Posted: 11:45 PM on October 23, 2010
Posts: 0 JAY-AKA-PHILLYBOY
AND BIZ……..
Posted: 11:46 PM on October 23, 2010
Posts: 0 Desibrave
Kate , Can’t believe you rooting for an AL team in WCS…,
Posted: 11:46 PM on October 23, 2010
Posts: 0 ChuckS
been a pleasure Jay.
Posted: 11:46 PM on October 23, 2010
Posts: 0 Kate
Yeah, they did beat themselves and I’m disgruntled over it. Absolutely. No excuses. The umps were passable tonight and we just did not take advantage.
But I’m not angry. We never should have seen the playoffs this year.
I feel sick bad for Ryan Madson. Pulling it out for a d*mn long time and he picks up the loss. He deserved better.
Hey, at least we owned Timmy again tonight.
Posted: 11:46 PM on October 23, 2010
Posts: 0 Desibrave
Jay, you forgot me ………… :)
Posted: 11:46 PM on October 23, 2010
Posts: 0 Mike from VA
Giants deserved to win, Phillies deserved the loss, this an awesome website make one for the EAGLES though lol. Next year pitching together and gotta hope offense bounces back… In fact DIDNT LIDGE AND HAMELS, THE BIGGEST PIECES OF 08, BOUNCE BACK, now offense biggest piece in 09 is gonna bounce back
Posted: 11:47 PM on October 23, 2010
Posts: 0 ChuckS
i feel bad for Mike Sweeney, the guy never got an AB in the postseason.
Posted: 11:47 PM on October 23, 2010
Posts: 0 Sam
I only wish that Howard would have gone down swinging rather then taking a pitch almost down the middle. At least he would have had one more cut at it. :( I still love the Phillies but I’ll be rooting for Cliff Lee on Wednesday. That’s about as close to having the Phillies in the World Series as we can get.
Posted: 11:47 PM on October 23, 2010
Posts: 0 JAY-AKA-PHILLYBOY
NOT SO FAST KATE,I DONT THINK ANYONE CAN SCORE IN THAT HELL HOLE AT&T PARK
Posted: 11:47 PM on October 23, 2010
Posts: 0 Kate
I’m rooting for Cliff Lee, Desi. I’m sentimental that way.
Posted: 11:47 PM on October 23, 2010
Posts: 0 Oh no
waaahhhh….
Posted: 11:47 PM on October 23, 2010
Posts: 0 AC in NJ
Bart Shart – what odds are you giving on Phils being a 500 team next year? C’mon, get real…with the pitching and the lack of competition in the NL East, they’ll be fine. Halladay and Oswalt want a championship the most and they’ll lead the way.
If the Phils don’t re-sign Werth, I’d love to see if Amaro can figure out a way to get Cliff Lee to return – but if the Rangers win the series, I don’t think it would happen.
Desibrave – normally I’d root for the National League, but no way in this situation. I’d like to thank Brooks Conrad for also helping make this last week a miserable one.
Posted: 11:48 PM on October 23, 2010
Posts: 0 JAY-AKA-PHILLYBOY
DESIBRAVE BEEN FUN…..
Posted: 11:48 PM on October 23, 2010
Posts: 0 Kate
I said it on Thursday and I’ll say it again. It’s been a pleasure, everyone. Let’s do it again next season.
And we’re still better than the Yankees. At least we were back to defend our World Championship the following year.
Posted: 11:49 PM on October 23, 2010
Posts: 0 Sam
ChuckS … I totally agree with you. Whether it be left or right handed pitcher … I think he would have done better then Gload. Sweeney deserved better then to be left on the bench.
Posted: 11:49 PM on October 23, 2010
Posts: 0 chuck
how bout them phils? those of us on the braves board had phillies trolls coming over and posting all of september about what a DYNASTY philly was. some dynasty. i mean, really. they didnt even bother showing up, did they? we played the giants much better than yall did. and we had like 6 key injuries from august on. dynasty…too funny. eat it, you obnoxious jerks.
Posted: 11:49 PM on October 23, 2010
Posts: 0 JAY-AKA-PHILLYBOY
SWEENEY DID BAT…..GOT A HIT 2
Posted: 11:49 PM on October 23, 2010
Posts: 0 AC in NJ
Jay – I agree with you that AT&T Park is a baseball hellhole. That said, Josh Hamilton can bomb them out of any park and unlike Howard, he’s doing it in these playoffs. (And this for a guy that played almost none of September rehabbing from injury). Ryan should take lessons.
Posted: 11:50 PM on October 23, 2010
Posts: 0 Kate
Halladay got a taste of the post-season. He wants back in.
We’ll be back and I’d better see all of you here for it.
Posted: 11:50 PM on October 23, 2010
Posts: 0 Kate
I wish there was a chance Sweeney could be back next year as utility or back-up.
Posted: 11:51 PM on October 23, 2010
Posts: 0 Kate
Hey, Desi, thanks for not gloating. I know it’s probably taking some restraint.
Posted: 11:52 PM on October 23, 2010
Posts: 0 AC in NJ
By the way, did they announce who won the NLCS MVP? I turned the damn TV off immediately after the strikeout.
Please don’t tell me it was Cody Journeyman Ross???
Posted: 11:52 PM on October 23, 2010
Posts: 0 jeff
Texas will destroy the Giants. There offense is a machine. They are aggresive. The Giants cant score runs. Vic dropped that ball. Giving up a single to the pitcher. Bruce pulling his pitchers early. STRANGE. The Rangers will destroy them. Ryan Howard will be licking that contract. He is starting his decline. Teams now know how to pitch them. Ever since spy gate our bats went north.
Posted: 11:52 PM on October 23, 2010
Posts: 0 Roseanne Barr
How many the divisions the phillie have won opposed to how many championships ?!? 4 and 1 !!!! ha ! ha !
Posted: 11:52 PM on October 23, 2010
Posts: 0 Desibrave
NL EAST RULES next year……,
You have H20 for the entire season.. thats no joke.. reminds of Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz..,
Posted: 11:52 PM on October 23, 2010
Posts: 0 ChuckS
okay Sweeney had one AB in the NLDS, but I would have liked to see him tonight or in the NLCS
Posted: 11:52 PM on October 23, 2010
Posts: 0 JAY-AKA-PHILLYBOY
YES CODY WON IT!
Posted: 11:53 PM on October 23, 2010
Posts: 0 AC in NJ
Kate – 100% with you on the Phillies being back in the party next year. My hunch now is that the Giants won’t be…I really think they’re a one year wonder…
West is a tougher division…Rockies good, Dodgers could be back and Padres were very, very suprising (and should have one the division).
Posted: 11:53 PM on October 23, 2010
Posts: 0 Roseanne Barr
hey ! win 10 more divisions and you can be like the braves ! 14 divisions and 1 world series !!! Dynasty !! ha ! Ha !
Posted: 11:54 PM on October 23, 2010
Posts: 0 Terri
Ryan Howard is going to take a lot of heat for not swinging at that pitch, people already think the Phillies overpaid him.
Posted: 11:54 PM on October 23, 2010
Posts: 0 Desibrave
Jeff,, What you don’t understand is Texas didnt face pitching like the NL East playoffs teams has this year.., They will be shutdown.. If Giants can shut down Phillies no way can Rangers hit them.,
Posted: 11:54 PM on October 23, 2010
Posts: 0 AC in NJ
wow. Cody Ross, MVP. I think I’ll throw up now. Phils should be embarrassed of that.
Posted: 11:55 PM on October 23, 2010
Posts: 0 JAY-AKA-PHILLYBOY
ME TO CHUCK,ESP WHEN BEN CAME UP-SHOULD HAVE BEEN SWEENEY!THAT BEING SAID,I THINK IF WERTH LEAVES BEN AND BROWN WILL DO GREAT!
Posted: 11:55 PM on October 23, 2010
Posts: 0 Jeff Y
Utley, Howard, & Werth stopped with the roids and they showed they are just average players.
Posted: 11:55 PM on October 23, 2010
Posts: 0 AC in NJ
Desibrave – c’mon, the Rangers have hit better than the Phillies all year…
Posted: 11:56 PM on October 23, 2010
Posts: 0 Matt
I could see Sweeney retiring after this year. I think the issue is he really can only play 1B. They’re probably looking for a guy who can do a little more, considering Ryan pretty much plays every game.
Posted: 11:56 PM on October 23, 2010
Posts: 0 ChuckS
c’mon Jeff Y, its not roids….its HGH, they can’t test for that yet
Posted: 11:57 PM on October 23, 2010
Posts: 0 Jeff Y
Howard is so overated!!!
Posted: 11:57 PM on October 23, 2010
Posts: 0 AC in NJ
Jay – I’m not ready to give Ben Francisco an everyday role…no way.
I’d love to see Brown get more ABs in the majors, but in Ibanez’s spot, not Werths
Posted: 11:57 PM on October 23, 2010
Posts: 0 Desibrave
AC in NJ,, They hit better because they are in AL West and you know who they play? Seattle , Angels (sucked this season), and As, Thats a joke compared to NL Pitching..,
Posted: 11:58 PM on October 23, 2010