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PN Writer's Roundtable: Jayson Werth

Posted by Pat Gallen, Thu, December 02, 2010 10:00 AM | Comments: 22
2010-11 Free Agency, Analysis, News, Opinion, Posts, Writer's Roundtable

QUESTION: Now that he’s a free agent, where do you think Jayson Werth will end up and how much will he get?

Nick “The Beerman” Staskin: Not many people hate the Red Sox more than the Yankees, however I do. In a few weeks, I expect to hate them a lot more.

I’m expecting Werth to sign a 5 yr deal worth about $94 million with the BoSox.

Boston wisely let Victor Martinez go, and I am expecting them to fill his spot in the lineup with a much better option in Werth. The Red Sox outfield is like the Island of Misfit Toys (see what I did there, implementing the holidays?) and Werth can step right in and give them a 5-tool option at a price that they can easily afford.

Jeff Nelson: If the Phillies can’t resign Jayson Werth, I sure hope Detroit can.  Despite already inking former Cleveland Indian and Boston Red Sox backstop, Victor Martinez to a 4-year $50MM deal, the Tigers would forfeit their 2011 first round pick to Philadelphia, not Boston, if they sign Jayson Werth.  That being said I think he’ll wind up with Boston.  I’ve had a gut feeling since the end of the 2010 baseball season, Werth would end up there.  If Adrian Beltre wants too many years or becomes too pricey for what Theo Epstein & company want to offer, they’ll desperately need another impact bat, especially from the right side.  I know Boston’s OF would be crowded if they sign Werth, but they could possibly move one of Jacoby Ellsbury, Mike Cameron or maybe even J.D. Drew if they eat some of his salary.

Outside of Werth and Carl Crawford, there aren’t many viable options for Boston that make sense for them.  You can cross off V-Mart and Manny for obvious reasons.  If Beltre doesn’t return and Kevin Youkilis gets moved to the hot corner, they have a potential need for a first basemen.  But If you look further own the road, three high profile first basemen might hit free agency a year later (Albert Pujols, Adrian Gonzalez and Prince Fielder), which probably increases the chance they plug someone at 1B for one year and take a shot with one of those guys.  In other words they may kick the tires on Paul Konerko and Adam Dunn but they ain’t coming to Beantown on a one-year deal.

Which brings us back to Werth and Crawford.  I highly doubt those two get what they and their agents are asking for.  But I do think the Angles are desperate enough and will overpay to land Crawford.  Again, this would leave the Red Sox desperate for a middle of the order bat and Werth would be a great fit for that lineup.  I’m guessing Boston will sign Werth to a 5-year deal.  I don’t think he gets the $100+MM he’s seeking, but he’ll get more than the Mets gave Jason Bay last year.  My prediction: 5-year $90MM deal.

Kieran Carobine: There a lot of teams showing ‘interest’ in Jayson Werth, while many of the suitors may just be trying to cherry pick. The majority of the teams that look in contention to acquire Werth all come out of the American League. That is, unless you still count the Phillies in this. My guess right now is that the Boston Red Sox have the upper hand. They have been courting Carl Crawford heavily this offseason as well and it could down to numbers for these guys. It seems Crawford wants an eight year deal while Werth is looking for five or six. Either way if the Red Sox sign one of these guys, it will be one of the biggest deals Boston has signed under their new management.

Some other teams in the mix are Detroit, the Yankees, Texas and possibly the Angels. I think Detroit is mainly focused on determining the value for Magglio Ordonez right now and could likely resign him. The Yankees are always a threat to make a big splash in free agency but like Texas, they may be pushing all their chips in on the Cliff Lee sweepstakes.

Then again, Werth could come back to Philly on a smaller deal (in years) but its very unlikely. My best bet is he will be the right fielder for the Red Sox next season. Bring on the Hammer!

Paul Boye: It’s hard to get a feel for this, especially since Carl Crawford isn’t close to signing yet. Crawford will dictate how this market will play out, and until we know anything about his destination and contract, Werth’s future is just as murky. I will say that I expect Detroit and Boston to be the favorites, and if neither lands Crawford – say, the Angels do instead – I’m sure their attention will be on Jayson. In the end, I like Boston by a bit, but Detroit should be in it until the end.

Pat Gallen: The obvious teams angling for the services of Jayson Werth include Boston, Detroit, and the Los Angeles Angels. I’m going in a different direction. With Paul Konerko coming off the books and likely headed elsewhere, the Chicago White Sox will have some money to spend. Instead of spending $15 million per season on the aging Konerko, I expect them to do their best to get Werth.

As an Illinois boy, so it would be a homecoming of sorts for the midwestern boy. The ChiSox have $82 million locked up for next year and those who know General Manager Kenny Williams know he will not shy away from making a big splash. Although their payroll has only been around $100 million the past few seasons, if Williams can get owner Jerry Reinsdorf to get that into the 110′s, they may be able to afford him.

Bringing in Werth would push Carlos Quentin either to DH or out of Chicago. He’s a name the Phillies have balked at as a replacement for Werth – Jayson Stark of ESPN.com has reported the asking price to be Dom Brown. That to me says the White Sox are trying to upgrade. This a bold prediction, but absolutely feasible. I see Chicago giving Werth a four-year deal worth $72 million dollars with a fifth year mutual option that could be based on incentive clauses. By the time that fifth year rolls around, Werth will be nearing 37, so an option year will offset his aging and likely decline.

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About Pat Gallen

Pat Gallen has written 1592 articles on Phillies Nation.

Pat is Editor-in-Chief of Phillies Nation. He also covers the Phils for 97.5 FM in Philly.

 
 
  • Posts: 0 Dan

    I wouldn’t feel so bad if Werth were to leave if I could feel more confident in Dom Brown. As everyone knows, he’s been struggling in winter ball. My hope is that this is due to him not having played for a while and that shortly, like Ryan Howard and Chase Utley did after slumping after their return from the DL in 2010, he will start getting his timing down. However, the possibility remains that something has gone seriously wrong with his swing or his mental approach and I don’t want to see him in July of 2011 hitting .120. Players in this game can really go bad. For example, Nate McLouth went from being an all-star to needing to be sent down. Greg Dobbs appeared to have forgotten how to hit in 2010. But this is probably being panicky and Dom will surely be just fine. Also, if Werth does leave there needs to be loyalty to the fans here and the Phillies. I really don’t understand what Juan Uribe was thinking when he signed with the Dodgers after playing for the Giants. I understand wanting a nice contract but you need to acknowledge the fans. So, Jayson, don’t sign with the Mets.

     
  • Posts: 0 Josh

    Great job guys, I agree with just about everything you all said. Here is my 2 cents:

    The only thing that all of you left out was the trade market for outfielders. I understand that those types of things are hard to predict, but if anyone of the teams you all mention have an chance to trade for a younger and cheaper player such as Justin Upton, I think a giant wrench will get through in Werth’s plans. In many cases, such as Boston, I think they may exhaust those possibilities before even thinking about signing Werth to a contract that will see him break age 37-38 years old.

    I don’t see anything happening until at least Feb. Should be interesting.

     
  • Posts: 0 Geoff

    Quentin is garbage.

    I have thought that Werth would end up in Boston as soon as he became good. He just has Boston written all over him. Let him go, good run but its time to move on. Id pry more deeply with Upton. Not sold on Brown. Could be excellent, but would rather have Upton.

     
  • Posts: 0 Geoff

    I agree also, they have overplayed Werth’s hand. Hes not worth even close to what he is looking for. He is living off of what, two good seasons? I don’t buy it. He will have to go join Derek Jeter in the waiting room for his demands to come back to reality and back down to Earth.

     
  • Posts: 0 Barb

    I respect all of your opinions and assessments but I can’t see Werth going to any team that doesn’t have the potential to go all the way to the World Series. He’s had the taste of victory, a team that he fits into greatly and opportunities to contribute and shine. I’m going out on a limb here and say when push comes to shove and when the Phillies give him a good offer ( which I think they can do) he’ll stay in Philly. You can all laugh at me now but that’s my strong feeling about all of this.

    Interesting Roundtable, guys. I enjoyed reading.

     
  • Posts: 0 betasigmashag

    I do not see the Phillies going much past the three years 55 million they have offered, I think the red sox or angels will give him five or six years because especially in the Red Sox world that is what they do to keep up with the Spankees.
    I too really like Upton, and think you could possibly deal Brown, maybe Banton,(whom I do not want to see go) and a few minor league players could get that done.
    The only thing is what do you do with the four spot in the rotation if Blanton is gone

     
  • Posts: 0 George

    Barb, I agree somewhat with your idea that Werth will not consider teams which don’t have the potential to “go all the way to the World Series.” Unfortunately for the Phils, though, every team mentioned here has that potential.

    I still don’t see why everyone wants to trade half the farm for Upton. Sure he’s young, but his stats are not all that impressive, and his strikeouts were rather high in 2010.

    The Angels are reported to have little interest in Werth. They’ll probably go for Crawford. If Boston can’t re-sign Beltre, their next major target will probably be Adrian Gonzalez.

    It’s still very much up in the air. I don’t count out any of the teams mentioned, and I won’t even guess at where Werth will be playing in the next few years.

     
  • Posts: 0 The Dipsy

    I think that Jayson Werth is gonna sign with the team that gives him the most money for the most years. Period. It could be the Nationals and it wouldn’t matter. Its all about the Benjamins.

    The Dipsy

     
  • Posts: 0 George

    The Phils would be crazy to include Blanton in a trade without having an alternate decent innings eating pitcher to obtain. They are already thin in the number five slot (a choice between Kendrick and Worley) and trading Blanton would thin them out even more. Capable starters don’t grow on trees, and as last year’s signings of people like Marquis and Sheets, and the Yanks experience with Vasquez should show that many such signings and trades are disasters.

    Maybe if they signed Cliff Lee they’d be able to trade Big Joe, but that’s probably not going to happen.

     
  • Posts: 0 George

    Good old cynical Dipsy…

    Of course in this case, he’s probably right. As I pointed out before, any of the teams mentioned here could be winners, so there really isn’t much else besides bucks for Werth to base his decision on.

     
  • Posts: 0 Bart Shart

    Look for Werth in either Seattle or Kansas City next year. But do not look for him unless one of those teams is playing at home against Boston.

     
  • Posts: 0 Chuck

    Dan…

    “loyalty to the fans here and the Phillies” ???

    Why??

    Jayson Werth doesn’t owe the fans or the Phillies anything.

     
  • Posts: 0 Bob in Bucks

    Why do we want ballplayers to do things we would not do?

    I agree with Dipsy, Jayson Werth will sign for the best contract – Royals, Nationals, whoever gives him the most. Why not?

    He does not owe the fans anything, he is a professional baseball player and has to make all his money in the next five years. After that he enters the job market with no viable skill or experience. Take it while you can Jayson!

     
  • Posts: 0 Paul Boye

    As far as we know, no official offer has been made to Werth. That 3/55 was a bad rumor started by someone without access.

     
  • Posts: 0 George

    Bravo, Mr. Boye.

    Someone needed to expose these idiotic rumors, suggestions, and exaggerations.

    Even if Werth is seeking a rumored 60 years and $1 zillion, it’s still just a rumor, and ultimately ANY figures are a starting point. If a Nation poster decides to sell his broken down car, for instance, would he advertise it for the lowest price he’d possibly consider? Somehow, I doubt it, because the buyer would then want the thing for even less!

     
  • Posts: 0 betasigmashag

    i think you are all crazy if you think Jayson is going to the nationals because they offer 6 years 95 millioin and the red sox offer 5 years 85 million, I know that would not happen but if it did he would go to the sox. Like I posted before I moved to a nicer slower paced state to a job I actually like to make less money, so not every one is a money grubbing pig. I am sorry if I think 50-60 million in 3 or 4 years can not set you up for life along with your grand childrens lives. Roy took less money to come here to win. NOt every player is A rod

     
  • Posts: 0 betasigmashag

    saying that if it is between the Angels, red sox Pankees, or even white sox he will take the most he can get,

     
  • Posts: 0 Chuck

    shag, he might not go to the Nats for 10M more but he would for 30 or 40 M more. No question in my mind.

    3/55 (or whatever) from the Phils and 5/90 from the Red Sox or Nats or Angels or whoever….

    Please. Don’t tell me you wouldn’t move for guaranteed money that’s almost 2/3 more.

     
  • Posts: 0 betasigmashag

    Chuck my point is yes if it is 10 million more a year then chase the money, but you know that is not realistic, some team like the cubs may offer 2-5 million more with the same years and you would think twice before you go to the cubs over the spankees or red sox. And you know what I did move from the city where I was makeing a lot more money from 75,000 a year to drive 20 miles in 3 hours to a state where I make about 45,000 and drive 20 miles in 25 minutes and love my job every day, (given I am married now and my wife makes more then I do) but that was not the case when I move to Vermont. Even if you take cost of living I make less money, but you know what, I drive to Philly Saturday for Sunday games, have the Sunday package and I moved because I like Vermont and the life style it gives my family and I. I I was an elite athlete and made 40 million dollars in 6 years and was 31 I would stay in a place I like for the next 3 years for 55 million more, and not move to NY or Boston for 10 or 11 million more, how much is enough my grand kids would be set for life.
    Now I am not saying you do not try and make all you can if that is what you want, and I think Jayson is gone, but not every one thinks that way. Now if you are talking 30 million more in those three years then yes even I would deal with that.

     
  • Posts: 0 Adrian

    Werth is going to Boston. The Red Sox will offer the most money, and that pitch-taking, bases-filling lineup is the best fit for him. Despite his recent durability, I don’t see him getting anymore than five years. The Sox would be overpaying if they set him up with more than 15 million per year, but then again that’s what they do best. Second-best anyway…

     
  • Posts: 0 john

    Werth and Lee both to Texas.

     
  • Posts: 0 john

    Dunn signed with the White Sox, so that team is out for his services at this point.

     
 
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