The Definitive Summary to Cliff Lee Part II
Posted by Corey Seidman, Tue, December 14, 2010 01:57 PM | Comments: 54
2010-11 Free Agency, Analysis, News, Opinion, Posts
Several days ago, Phillies Assistant GM Scott Proefrock, when asked of the team potentially signing Cliff Lee, responded: “That ship has sailed.”
It did not seem like a smug, shady answer like those typically given by Godfather Ruben Amaro, it seemed like a genuine quote. He was too expensive. The Phils could not compete with seven-year offers or $150-$160 million deals.
So, what happened? How did such an improbable fantasy turn into reality in the span of one day?
The “Mystery Team”
For a little over one week, Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated and the MLB Network mentioned that, in addition to the Yankees and Rangers, a third “mystery team” was expressing interest. Some did not believe Heyman, most thought that even if a mystery team existed, it did not pose a serious threat.
The entire ordeal reminded me of the WWE. It was as if there was a triple-threat match for the Heavyweight Championship, with the champion and challenger known to all, and the mystery opponent being a big name star making his return.
When the dust settled, the Phillies turned out to be the “mystery team.” But, didn’t Proefrock say mere days ago that the ship had sailed? What explains the late surge made by the Phillies after weeks of nothingness on the Cliff Lee front?
Who Called Who?
Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reported early Tuesday morning that his feeling was that the Yankees and Rangers made their offers, but Lee subsequently decided his heart was in Philadelphia. Grant’s thinking is that Lee came to this realization and, along with agent Darek Braunecker, “put out feelers” to the Phillies, who simply reacted. Ruben Amaro did not “act” as he did to get Lee (the first time), Roy Halladay, or Roy Oswalt. He “reacted.”
Proefrock was giving accurate information when he said the ship had sailed. But, when he and Amaro were confronted by Braunecker with his client’s wishes to return to the city that treated him like a saint 18 months ago, it was simply too incredible an opportunity to pass up.
Comfort Over Dollars
The actual offers of the Yankees and Rangers have been widely circulated. We know that Cliff Lee chose happiness over the largest offer. At first, it appeared that he had given up $50 million to choose Philly over New York. But with word coming out that his easily reachable vesting option in 2016 is worth a whopping $27.5MM, that number is realistically closer to $13MM.
The Spit Factor
Cliff Lee’s wife was reportedly spit on at Yankee Stadium last season. I think $150 million can dry the residue of any loogy, but Philadelphia author and sportswriter, Randy Miller, was told that Lee’s wife was the main reason he did not choose New York. She “wanted no part of New York.”
Amaro the Magician
For a year, we complained about the trade of Cliff Lee to Seattle. The Phillies rushed and did not get enough in return. It was a bad trade. The end. Thankfully, Ruben Amaro more than made up for it by not only re-acquiring Lee, but also obtaining Roy Oswalt via trade.
In reality, Amaro has acquired:
- Roy Halladay
- Cliff Lee
- Roy Oswalt
- Ben Francisco
- Phillippe Aumont
- Tyson Gillies
- J.C. Ramirez
for
- Kyle Drabek
- Michael Taylor
- Travis d’Arnaud
- J.A. Happ
- Anthony Gose
- Jonathan Villar
- Lou Marson
- Jason Donald
- Carlos Carrasco
- Jason Knapp
Three aces – two of which have won Cy Youngs – for the price of one highly touted pitching prospect (Drabek), one third starter (Happ), and eight question marks. This does not happen every day. GMs are not capable of this.
How has Amaro done it? Well, by being creative, flexible, assertive, deep-pocketed, lucky, lucky, more lucky, and lucky again. Amaro has had the backing of a notoriously frugal ownership group and has made the most of the wealthiest era in Phillies history.
He has also benefited from the fact that the Phillies have been not only successful, but they possess a beautiful stadium, unbelievably passionate fans, and a gregarious group of players.
Hanley Ramirez may outhit Jimmy Rollins, but he does not have his personality. A year ago I’d tell you that the previous sentence serves no purpose, that, in baseball, personality does not matter as much as talent. That even if Jimmy is the proxy for the Phillies attitude as a whole, that intangible is less important than dozens of other skills.
But how can you say that now, when a player said “no” to two larger offers to come back to Citizens Bank Park?
Just a few years ago, no pitcher wanted any part of CBP. Now, guys are giving up guaranteed years and trust funds for their grandchildren to pitch in Philadelphia.
Truly remarkable times, these are.
Posts: 0 Lefty
Great post as usual Corey. I appreciate the excellent work of all the PN writers, but your postings are always my favorite.
The old saying “I’d rather be lucky than good” does not apply here. The Godfather is indeed both lucky and very, very good.
Posted: 02:07 PM on December 14, 2010
Posts: 0 Gaze_NJ
Who gets a bronze statue outside CBP first, HK or RAJ?
Posted: 02:15 PM on December 14, 2010
Posts: 0 Groty
This speaks volumes for the organization as a whole. They WANT to play in Philly! I really think it goes back to what Gillick started here.
Posted: 02:16 PM on December 14, 2010
Posts: 0 JAY-AKA-PHILLYBOY
IT IS A GREAT TIME IN PHILLIES HISTORY!!!!
Posted: 02:32 PM on December 14, 2010
Posts: 0 JAY-AKA-PHILLYBOY
GLAD YOU ARE BACK #33………R2C2 BABY!!!!!
Posted: 02:34 PM on December 14, 2010
Posts: 0 Chuck
Speaking of HK…
Ruben is the ant. And Cliff’s the rubber tree plant.
High Hopes!!
Posted: 02:40 PM on December 14, 2010
Posts: 0 psujoe
Small point of clarification. Amaro has acquired:
◦Roy Halladay
◦Cliff Lee
◦Roy Oswalt
Travis Aumont
JC Ramirez
Tyson Gillies
for
◦Kyle Drabek
◦Michael Taylor
◦Travis d’Arnaud
◦J.A. Happ
◦Anthony Gose
◦Jonathan Villar
◦Lou Marson
◦Jason Donald
◦Carlos Carrasco
◦Jason Knapp
Posted: 03:00 PM on December 14, 2010
Posts: 0 Don M
RUIN. TOMORROW. JR..
Posted: 03:01 PM on December 14, 2010
Posts: 0 Nick
what do people think about bringing sweeney back or maybe even jim thome even though hes a left handed bat. It wouldnt take much more than a million for each of them I’d think.
Posted: 03:05 PM on December 14, 2010
Posts: 0 GM-Carson
Cliff Lee’s deal is for 5 years/$120M. It includes a vesting option for $27.5M in 2016, or a $12M buyout. Meaning the deal is $132M minimum or $147.5M maximum.
The Yankees offered Lee 6 years/$132M with a $16M player option for a 7th year. Minimum $132, maximum $148.
Rangers offered 6 years/$138M with a vesting option that would have brought the deal to $161 over 7 years.
Mathematical breakdown:
Phillies: if Lee doesn’t reach vesting option and only pitches 5 seasons he’ll receive $132M which averages out to $26.4M per year. If he reaches the vesting option, then it averages $24.6M over the 6 YR.
Yankees: $22M per season over 6 YR, or $21.1M per season over 7 YR if he exercised the player option.
Rangers: $23M per season over 6 YR or 7 YR period.
Turns out the Phillies offered the most per year. Sure he turned down guaranteed money from the Yanks, but he gets richer quicker with the Phils.
Posted: 03:18 PM on December 14, 2010
Posts: 0 Don M
Thome hit like 25 HRs last year.. he’ll make well over a Million and is still a full time DH..
I haven’t heard anything about Sweeney, but think he’s a great bench bat!
Posted: 03:22 PM on December 14, 2010
Posts: 0 Chuck
Sweeney would probably come back here for next to nothing now. He’s at least worth an invite to S.T.
Posted: 03:25 PM on December 14, 2010
Posts: 0 Nick
how about lance nix? he’d be an outstanding addition to the bench but im thinking hell get significantly more money and could end up as a DH
Posted: 03:32 PM on December 14, 2010
Posts: 0 Lefty
good point psujoe. Hopefully at least two of those guys will help us in the future.
Posted: 03:35 PM on December 14, 2010
Posts: 0 Lefty
PBJ- Did you see it on the other thread?
Posted: 03:36 PM on December 14, 2010
Posts: 0 betasigmashag
psujoe, you forgot Ben Fran in the people RAJ acquired in the last 2 years And Don you are not a fan of this deal I guess? And as the update stated the vested 6 year is closer to 15 million then 27 million.
And as far as ruining tomorrow I do not agree, the minors has a SS in waiting with a light bat but great defense and arm, some good hitting OF some with power some for average, so in the end of this Lee deal you could have the next core coming up that will not cost as much then. Also you do not take Oswalt’s option for 2012 and use that money to sign Hamels to a 5 year deal in the 15-18 million a year range. So you have two lefties until 2015. And from sports prospectus there a few young arms down there too.
Posted: 03:37 PM on December 14, 2010
Posts: 0 Bart Shart
What a great day. Great post by Corey. I am tingling with excitement.
My bet is that the Phils will trade Joe Blanton and a minor leaguer for Nick Swisher. The Yankees must do something. Blanton is a decent pitcher and probably better than at least two of their starters.
Posted: 03:39 PM on December 14, 2010
Posts: 0 Bart Shart
Yes, I probably am crazy.
Posted: 03:40 PM on December 14, 2010
Posts: 0 psujoe
WOW, I did forget BenFran and I really liked that part of the first Lee deal.
Posted: 03:41 PM on December 14, 2010
Posts: 0 psujoe
Would the Yanks really trade Swisher for Blanton and ?
Posted: 03:43 PM on December 14, 2010
Posts: 0 psujoe
Swisher makes $9 million so that won’t help the Phils reduce payroll. They’ll need a cheaper RH bat unless they trade Ibanez.
Posted: 03:44 PM on December 14, 2010
Posts: 0 Lefty
You guys really think the Yankees are in any mood to do business with us?
Posted: 03:50 PM on December 14, 2010
Posts: 0 fatarse mcfatfook
exactly
cheaper right hander = mike sweeney
why is he not on the roster yet, get sh|t done ruben
slap his name on a jersey and he’ll play
Posted: 03:56 PM on December 14, 2010
Posts: 0 Nick
cheaper RH bat sounds like sweeney
Posted: 04:01 PM on December 14, 2010
Posts: 0 fata55mcfatfook
exactly
cheaper right hander = mike sweeney
why is he not on the roster, get sh|t done ruben
slap his name on a d@mn jersey, put a bat in his hand, and unleash the monster that is Michael John Sweeney
Posted: 04:04 PM on December 14, 2010
Posts: 0 mike
R2C2 could win 80 games…..just by themselves.
Cole is going up against A NUMBER 4 PITCHER.
cole hamels. against a number 4? haha..what?
if the offense averages 4.5 runs a game, they win 110 easily…EASILY
Posted: 04:05 PM on December 14, 2010
Posts: 0 fatazmcfatfok
exactly
cheaper right hander = mike sweeney
why is this kid not on the roster already, get sh||t done ruben
slap his name on a jersey, put a bat in his hand, and unleash the monster that is Michael John “Mike” Sweeney.
Posted: 04:07 PM on December 14, 2010
Posts: 0 psujoe
How about some kind of trade with Blanton and Lorenzo Cain? He would be a nice young addition in the OF.
Posted: 04:18 PM on December 14, 2010
Posts: 0 Lefty
I like Cain quite a bit. Don’t know if he’s on the market. One of the best defensive plays of the year.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Cqz46KHaVE
Posted: 04:31 PM on December 14, 2010
Posts: 0 psujoe
Sweet catch.
They said they’d entertain offers on December 6th, but they sort of pulled him back. They were looking ofr starting pitching. He would certainly be a great addition.
Posted: 04:37 PM on December 14, 2010
Posts: 0 Don M
You can’t just say Cole Hamels vs. other Number 4 pictchers… because those matchups hardly ever happen in the regular season..
Come playoff time the #s mean something.. but you have to look at it that the phillies have an ACE starting 80% of their games next season, regardless of who the other team has on the mound,..
im not worried about offense, because, again.. they dont need to score 5-6 runs to win like they did with Moyer, Kendrick, Eric Milton, etc
Posted: 04:39 PM on December 14, 2010
Posts: 0 bfo_33
I’m a fan of Big Joe, and appreciate his contribution over the past 3 years, but at his current pay, he’s a marginal value. If we aren’t going to take on a chunk of his salary, you need to find a team with:
- Money
- Feels competitive, but has some question marks in pitching for the beginning of the season
- Has a surplus of bodies at a particular position
This is why the BoSox seemed like a good fit (Beckett, Lackey, and Dice-K may not be in Bos in April, extra outfielders, printing money). Other possibilities include Texas, LAA, possibly the ChiSox, less likely the Dodgers and Reds. The Nats also seem like a good fit (not competitive this year, but have no starting pitching), but probably won’t trade in the division. It will be interesting to see what unfolds.
Posted: 04:45 PM on December 14, 2010
Posts: 0 psujoe
A lot will depend on were Povano signs. He’s the next pitching domino.
Posted: 04:55 PM on December 14, 2010
Posts: 0 JAY-AKA-PHILLYBOY
I AM GOING TO LOOK NOW LEFTY………
Posted: 05:07 PM on December 14, 2010
Posts: 0 Chuck
Just heard Jayson Stark on 97.5 and he said that this rotation has the chance to be the first rotation in BASEBALL HISTORY to have four guys with 200Ks. Incredible.
Posted: 05:13 PM on December 14, 2010
Posts: 0 JAY-AKA-PHILLYBOY
YES LEFTY,JUST SAW IT-HELLLLLLLLL YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA BROTHER!!!!!!
Posted: 05:21 PM on December 14, 2010
Posts: 0 Dr. Dave
Do we really care if Hamels pitches against #1s during the season (as the season plays out due to off days, etc.)? That means Doc is going against their #3, Lee against their #4 and Oswalt against a #5.
I would throw out any of our top 4 against a #1.
Posted: 05:31 PM on December 14, 2010
Posts: 0 Dr. Dave
I would put both Blanton and Kendrick on the block. Trade one and pull back the other to battle Vance Worley for the #5.
OR, trade them both for Greinke.
Posted: 05:33 PM on December 14, 2010
Posts: 0 Manny
Great, great post Corey!
Posted: 05:34 PM on December 14, 2010
Posts: 0 Chuck
Yeah, because Kansas City would actually do that deal. Give me a break.
Posted: 05:47 PM on December 14, 2010
Posts: 0 Corey Seidman
Thanks for the feedback, guys. Missed the site while I was working in DC, but I’m back now.
One thing I do wanna clarify though is that the Phillies would be lucky to get ANYTHING of value for Blanton. It will likely be a pure salary dump, with whoever takes him on agreeing to half of his remaining $17MM.
They may get a little bit for Blanton, but the Phils’ trading partner will know the Phillies are in a position of desperation to move Blanton’s salary, and will use that leverage to not give up good talent. They won’t get a Lorenzo Cain-type, they won’t get a Nick Swisher-type.
The only thing the Phillies DO have going for them on the Blanton-front is that aside for Carl Pavano and (if he’s actually available) Matt Garza, there are no quality starters on the market.
Posted: 05:57 PM on December 14, 2010
Posts: 0 Don M
FAIR WARNING TO PHILLIES NATION-ers . . . .
since I agree with Corey.. that moving Blanton is NOT to bring prospects back in return, but to save $17 M (or as much of it as possible)
It would be nice to not here people b!tching and complaining that Ruin Tomorrow Jr didn’t get anything back for him . . . . and crying about Bobby Abreu again, etc. . . because this is that same situation
a salary dump, does not bring back top prospects.. (hopefully if the Phillies are going to eat some salary too, they can get a low level 3b in the mix)
Posted: 06:39 PM on December 14, 2010
Posts: 0 Jeff
Don stop your crying. go root for the mets. god. we all know they need to free up salary. for you putting this lee deal down shows how much of a tool you are.
Posted: 06:42 PM on December 14, 2010
Posts: 0 bebin
You know what I think our Bullpen might be even better than last year but the thing is we won’t need the pen as much =)…
LOOGY- Denys Reyes
ROOGY- Scott Mathieson
Long relief- Kyle Kendrick (This is on the assumption Worley wins the 5th spot in the rotation, I think Kenrick needs to find a niche and starter is not it like Durbin he could become a reliable Long Reliever who can make spot starts maybe even get a increase in velocity in the pen)
7th inning Lefty- Antonio Bastardo – He has the tools to become a JC Romero circa 07-08 he just needs to put it together and become more consistent..
7th inning Righty – Jose Contreras
Set-up- Ryan Madson
Closer- Brad Lidge
Posted: 06:44 PM on December 14, 2010
Posts: 0 bebin
And the most I think we can get for blanton is a jason donald type…I’d be really surprised if we got anything more
Posted: 06:53 PM on December 14, 2010
Posts: 0 bfo_33
Don M, you have been away awhile if you expect all the posters to react rationally – most people get it, but many will complain (by the way, congrats on your recent addition, hope everything is going well). I am sure there are those who expect to get Greinke for Blanton and Ibanez.
I expect the return on Blanton will largely hinge on how much risk management is willing to take in moving him. If they really want to maximize his value, hold onto him until April (a starter will go down on a team with playoff aspirations). At that point, they may get a mid level prospect, and only have to eat a small portion of his contract. The risk is that Blanton has a rocky April (or worse yet, gets hurt), then he’s unmovable.
If RAJ was told that he must be off the roster before spring training, that will push his hand a bit. It will likely mean eating half his contract and getting a low level, low ceiling prospect, or taking on someone elses high contract for a year.
Posted: 06:57 PM on December 14, 2010
Posts: 0 bebin
I was thinking the same thing bfo_33 …nice touch with the risk management drop…but the thing is the Dave montgomery and the other owners might want to get rid of that 170 million tag asap b/c they are not the Yankees…in all likelihood if blanton is traded we start the year off at around 165
Posted: 07:13 PM on December 14, 2010
Posts: 0 Chuck
except that Don’s right… people on here constantly b*tch and moan about stuff that makes no sense. And I can see that same scenario playing out with whoever the Phillies might move.
They move Blanton and people will be saying, “See, they never should have extended him. What the F was Ruben thinking?”
Or..
They trade Ibanez and eat a chunk of his salary….and everyone will be all over that signing as if Raul didn’t do sh*t while he was here.
Posted: 07:15 PM on December 14, 2010
Posts: 0 Chuck
And Jeff (with a Capital J)….are you jeff (lower case).??
Or another Jeff that never has anything positive to say about the Phillies?
Posted: 07:18 PM on December 14, 2010
Posts: 0 bebin
So all we need now to fill out the roster is a 3b backup and possible platoon rf.
I’m thinking a Dye, Kearns, Andruw Jones, Marcus Thames, Scott Hariston type would come here for a minimum to 1 million, one year contract.
They could then platoon with Gload in right while Ibanez and Francisco platoon in Left.
Of course this might be me reading too much into Rueben’s “In a perfect world, we don’t need Domonic to make our club, unless he really pushes us, unless he shows us in spring training that he’s ready to take that next step” comment.
Posted: 07:21 PM on December 14, 2010