Vlad Guerrero and the Importance of Defense
Posted by Corey Seidman, Thu, January 06, 2011 03:55 AM | Comments: 29
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To a team with the best four-man rotation in fifteen years, should more or less importance be placed on outfield defense?
Arguments can be made either way. The 2011 Phillies will prevent a ton of runs based solely on the man on the mound, so maybe outfield defense is less important than it would be to say, the Nationals. But, on the other hand, shouldn’t a team that hangs its hat on run prevention supplement it with the best defense possible?
It is a tricky question, one that is only compounded by the fact that the Phillies have an incomplete but potentially potent offense.
Unless Ruben Amaro was bluffing all of the times he clearly stated that he would like to start Domonic Brown in Triple-A, the Phillies outfield projects as: Raul Ibanez in left, Shane Victorino in center, and a platoon of Ben Francisco and Ross Gload in right. Center is fine, the corners are as shaky as it gets.
Well, maybe as shaky as it gets.
Enter low-risk, high-reward right field option: Vladimir Guerrero.
The Case For and Against Vlad
He’ll break down in mid-August. He’ll miss a few balls in the outfield and will probably cost a run here or there on the bases. But boy, would Big Daddy Vladdy be dangerous in Citizens Bank Park.
From last Opening Day until the end of June, Guerrero hit .339/.380/.580 with 18 home runs and 14 doubles. He made the Angels look foolish for so easily letting him go.
Then, from July 1 until the end of the season, Guerrero hit .265/.310/.419 with 11 homers and 13 doubles. He looked like a declining 35-year-old.
That second half may scare you away, but keep in mind that even if a signed Guerrero would perform as badly as he did in the second half of 2010, that would still be right on par with what Ben Francisco or Ross Gload would give you.
Vlad’s second half was nearly identical to Ben Francisco’s 2010 season (and career numbers), and close to, if not better than, Ross Gload’s output in his two seasons as a semi-regular with Kansas City.
So, even in the doomsday scenario, Vlad would be equal offensively to the right field platoon the Phillies plan to employ. And realistically, he would not exclusively be Second Half Vlad.Offensively, you cannot make a logical argument against signing Vladimir Guerrero to a 1-year/$5 million deal with cheap incentives. He only made $5.5MM last year, and after the Rangers and Angels both announced this week that he is not in their plans, the market has shrunk significantly for the Impaler.
As a righthanded bat, Vlad would represent a fearsome number five hitter that could keep the Phillies offense explosive when he’s hot.
But offense is only one side of the ball.
Guerrero played a grand total of 18 games in the outfield last season. In the other 129, he was a designated hitter. He has not played the outfield regularly since 2008, and that was a lifetime of nicks and bruises ago.
As displayed in the 2010 World Series, Vlad cannot run or field much at all anymore. He is a defensive liability on par with Pat Burrell and Raul Ibanez. Maybe even worse than Ibanez. Probably not worse than Burrell.
But neither Ben Francisco nor Ross Gload are the second coming of Jayson Werth. Neither is a strong defensive outfielder. Neither has range. Francisco has a below average arm and Gload has three assists in 608 career outfield innings.
At least Guerrero has a cannon that still fires.
- Offensively, Guerrero is an upgrade.
- Defensively, Guerrero is bad, but not significantly worse than any other Phillies rightfielder not named Domonic Brown.
- Character-wise, Guerrero would not be a distraction the way a Manny Ramirez would.
- Financially, a one-year deal is absolutely viable. All it would require is the money the Phillies keep flirting with Chad Durbin over.
This seems like the kind of move Ruben Amaro would consider. Two years ago, we all took a “I’ll believe it when I see it” approach with Pedro Martinez, and that turned out to be a wise investment for the Phils.
Call me crazy, but when I saw how quickly the market shrunk for Vladimir Guerrero, I instantly saw a low-risk, high-reward situation for a General Manager who loves to take a chance.
Posts: 3468 Lefty
Corey, You’re crazy- Well you told us to call you that! There’s a reason markets shrink quickly, the guy has no value as an National Leaguer. If the platoon does not work, we can pick him up later in the year ala Pedro, so he doesn’t wear out.
IMO- A better plan would be to use our asset (Blanton) to trade for an extra younger OF that can play defense. As badly as some think we need a bat with pop out there, we’re missing a guy with speed and a big arm out there too. In that way, we may be able to shed a little payroll instead of adding it.
Or just stick with the plan as is, I don’t think RAJ was bluffing, rather just trying to light a fire under the butt of Dominic, who will come through sooner or later.
Posted: 06:38 AM on January 6, 2011
Posts: 1 Noble80
Low risk high reward for Vlad, i’m in! I think we missed out on an ideal FA …Bill Hall. He has power & can play multiple positions
Posted: 10:51 AM on January 7, 2011
Posts: 193 bfo_33
First, Vlad is one of my favorite non-Phils player of all time (along with Bagwell and Ozzie Smith). He was one of those guys I always wanted on the Phils…. in the 90′s, early 2000s. The problem is now, there is no such such as a routine out for him. Anything in the air is a potential extra base hit, as is any ground ball to the outfield. While I don’t quite have the man love for Ibanez as Chuck, Raul hustles, makes the routine plays, occasionally surprises you with a nice play. After Vic, we may not have a great defensive outfield (and Gload drops it down more), but they’ll make the routine plays.
Oswalt gets a lot of fly ball outs. Doc pitches to contact. Putting Vlad in the outfield is like putting bicycle tires on a corvette.
Right now, Blanton has no value – poor start last year, plus everyone knows the Phils want to move him. If he has a decent start (the normal 6+ innings, 3 runs), the competitive teams with no pitching depth (Yankees, Rangers, Milwaukee, Cinc, Angels….), are going to figure out in May/June that they could use Big Joe, and give back more value. Until then, Raul, Gload, and Ben Fran will suffice. A big no to Vlad or Manny (I’d take a shot on Dye first if the $$ are reasonable and he’s willing to platoon). Their bat does not compensate for the defensive liability.
Posted: 08:10 AM on January 6, 2011
Posts: 2524 Chuck A.
I don’t know… I actually mentioned this in one of the forums on this site yesterday. Part of me salivates at the idea of what this guy can do offensively….especially in CBP. BUT….the defense…or lack thereof. Yes he has a cannon. But if he displays it after he misplays the ball and it’s rendered pretty much useless…then so what.
However, I’d say that if you can get the guy for 5M for a year…then go for it. Start him in some games and take him out after 6 innings once the Phillies have a nice lead. And we have those interleague games, too where he can DH. If he gets 400 ABs a year that’s worth it, especially if he puts up the numbers.
He’s a better option than Dye…who hasn’t played in how long now?? And DEFINITELY better than Manny who would just totally disrupt everything.
Posted: 09:18 AM on January 6, 2011
Posts: 60 Captain Chaos
Have to agree with the consensus here. Don’t really want a DH in right field. Francisco may not have the best arm, but he should be at least a roughly average defender out there, and if Brown has a good spring training he’ll be getting the Lion’s share of starts anyway.
Posted: 09:24 AM on January 6, 2011
Posts: 1932 Brooks
Pick him up. Add 35-40 hrs to this lineup for $5 mil? Look, if his defense is hurting more than his offense helps the Phils, then you just revert back to the Brown/Gload/Ben platooning plan.
$5 mil? How can you not? 400 atbats will likely get you close to 30 hrs if not more and probably key rbi when needed too. It’s definitely worth a chance! Chuck, I used the action verb in the past while speaking of Vlad – salivating… Inexpensive option, relatively low risk – get it done.
Posted: 09:33 AM on January 6, 2011
Posts: 2524 Chuck A.
I think he’s better than bringing Mike Sweeney back. We don’t need 3 first basemen anyway as Gload can be Ryan’s back-up. You could work two platoons….Ben Fran/Raul and Brown/Vladdy. Depending on the match-ups and if you held to a strict righty/lefty thing…then Vlad and Raul would rarely be in the outfield at the same time….which would be a plus defensively.
Of course, the question that I brought up last week still remains….Who gives Shane a break in center?
Posted: 09:49 AM on January 6, 2011
Posts: 147 Don M
Ben Francisco played some CF at the end of last year I think..??
Posted: 11:42 AM on January 6, 2011
Posts: 93 Ted Bell
This is just silly. Anyone who watched the WS knows that Guerrero is no longer a position player.
An excerpt from the game one summary:
“…His defense, however, led to at least two San Francisco runs. Guerrero committed two errors in the bottom of the eighth inning, a frame in which the Giants pushed across three runs to put the game far out of reach.
Guerrero played only 18 games in the field this year after playing just twice in right field in 2009. Washington surely would prefer to have Guerrero at his usual designated hitter position, especially because Guerrero’s age and accumulated leg injuries have left him lacking as much for range as for reliability in the field.
Guerrero misplayed or nearly misplayed four balls that did not even show up as errors in the final line and generally looked lost. His arm probably retains some of the fire that intimidated baserunners during his tenure with the Montreal Expos, but the days when he could use that arm and his speed to make up for bad routes and tentative handling of the ball on easy flies and ground-ball singles are long gone.
The Rangers rationalized Guerrero’s misadventures simply by minimizing them: “A couple balls got by him,” said Washington, who added that he plans to play Guerrero again Thursday night in Game 2. He has since reversed that position, though.
Presumably, the real reasoning for keeping Guerrero in the lineup would be to augment the team’s lineup, and on the surface, that logic might hold up. Under more intense scrutiny, though, chinks in Guerrero’s offensive armor in Game 1 become apparent…”
No thanks.
I’m Ted Bell.
Posted: 10:40 AM on January 6, 2011
Posts: 31 Josh
Its very easy to fall in love with names like Vlad and Manny and what they did in the past.
I think the article answers its own question. Last year Vlad had a great first half and an average second. The drop off is likely due to his age and injury history. All this while (mostly) play DH. So in all likelihood the more games he plays defense, the closer his numbers will look to the average second half. Why would the Phills pay $5M for production that they already have on the roster. I also like Chuck’s point about the backup CF. Right now its BenFran or Dom Brown (who will both see the majority of time in LF and RF). It makes for sense for the Phills to acquire a more defensively diverse player. Someone who is more of a “super utility player” who can also play a little INF. I had argued for Bill Hall a few weeks ago but he has since been signed. Everyone keeps forgetting that the only guy on this roster that can backup 3B, SS, and 2B is Wilson Valdez. I still argue that this is a greater need than finding another corner OF, especially one past his prime.
Posted: 10:49 AM on January 6, 2011
Posts: 147 Don M
If you had to choose the most ideal, and best available option for the Phillies #5 spot in the lineup…. its clear that Vladdy would be a GREAT choice… the guy can flat out HIT.
BUT.. to say that he’s on the same level as even Ben Francisco on defense is laughable…
AND… probably the most important factor is that Vladdy has so many injury problems that the ONLY WAY TO KEEP HIM IN THE LINEUP… has been to keep him OFF THE FIELD… and in the DH role.
Since we aren’t an AL club, he just doesn’t fit here… if you try to play him in the OF, you get him injured..
If the price is right, he’s obviously worth a shot.. but you can’t expect a full season, and great production because he just doesn’t have the body to play 150 (or even 120 games) in the field and stay healthy
This had been “MY TWO CENTS”
Posted: 11:40 AM on January 6, 2011
Posts: 2524 Chuck A.
I think that the POTENTIAL for some dynamite offensive power is what the allure is here. The question remains, however, whether the Phillies can tolerate average to poor defensive skills in order to have that offensive shot. To me….for 5M for a year….why not?? It’s worth the gamble and if it just doesn’t work out then so be it.
Posted: 11:48 AM on January 6, 2011
Posts: 770 betasigmadeltashag
not even average to poor defense, terrible defense, even Gload who is bad in the outfield defensivly is better then Vlad. I really do not think Gload will be playing outfield he had what 2 starts in the OF last year and was flat out bad. And 5 million is not a small amount with this teams payroll already. Ben Fran, Vic, Raul, are the starting OF with Mayberry? Brown? as fourth outfielders
Posted: 08:39 PM on January 6, 2011
Posts: 2524 Chuck A.
Don, I don’t remember Ben Fran in center last year…but maybe he was on occasion. I honestly don’t remember. But he would make the most sense as someone that could come in and spell Vic if necessary.
Posted: 11:54 AM on January 6, 2011
Posts: 147 Don M
i checked, only 2 games in CF last year, 7 games in 2009… 45 total in his career with no errors. So he’s not going to win the Gold Glove out there, but he can cover some ground and make the plays we expect. I think he’s a better all-around player than most people give him credit for… career avgs of almost 18 HRs and 13 Steals . . . I think he’s going to impress if they give him regular playing time this year!!!!
Posted: 12:06 PM on January 6, 2011
Posts: 193 bfo_33
Assuming the Phils are starting the season with 5 starters, 7 bullpen arms (with this group of starters, I’d be good with 6, but not typical). That leaves 13 spots.
Position Players: Ib, Vic, Ben Fran,Howard, Utley, Rollins, PP, Ruiz, Schneider. 4 spots remaining.
Valdez and Gload are shoe-ins, leaving 2 spots.
In those two spots, one infielder, 1 outfielder. If Brown is one, then the other should be an infielder with some pop on the right hand side, doesn’t have to be a great fielder (although I wouldn’t be surprised to see Mayberry start the season as the 4th outfielder while Brown builds some confidence at LV).
He’s not on the 40 man roster, but why not give Tag Bozied a shot. He’s a decent defensive 3rd baseman, and definitely has some pop. Certainly not the future, but might be a decent back-up, rh bench bat.
Posted: 12:49 PM on January 6, 2011
Posts: 2524 Chuck A.
I really don’t want John Mayberry Jr on this team unless it’s as an injury replacement. The guy can’t hit a breaking ball to save his life and really only hits fastballs that are right down the middle of the plate.
Posted: 01:06 PM on January 6, 2011
Posts: 193 bfo_33
One thing Mayberry gives is some athleticism as a late innings defensive replacement/pinch runner (which Brown gives also). My only question is whether Brown needs to have some success before he comes back. We’ll see in spring training.
Posted: 01:54 PM on January 6, 2011
Posts: 24 georgie
As I’ve said on here before, ad-nauseum, I’m sure….defense is my favorite aspect of the game, and I really don’t want to see ANY position on the team filled by someone who can’t field the freakin’ ball. Of course they frustrated the crap out of me last year when they were anemic at the plate, so I’m not sure about this. Not a fan of platooning, but I suspect Dom is not yet ready for prime time.
Posted: 12:59 PM on January 6, 2011
Posts: 311 Corey Seidman
Comment from Phillies Nation fan on Facebook: “This author dont know shit bout baseball. He says Ibanez is a better fielder than Burrell but Burrell made fewer errors.”
Posted: 02:13 PM on January 6, 2011
Posts: 2524 Chuck A.
I’m not the fan that said that on Facebook…. BUT….the truth is…I would take Ibanez over Burrell…fewer errors aside. I just think Raul plays harder, cares more (or at least appears to). There is something to be said for “grit”.
I know…someone earlier suggested that I have a “man crush” on Raul. Not really, but I’m just glad that RAJ didn’t listen to the majority of Phillies fans that were calling for his head last summer…
Posted: 02:20 PM on January 6, 2011
Posts: 1932 Brooks
Chuck – you do have a man crush on Raul… comon, admit it.
= )
So we weigh out the pros and cons and what do we have?
Con –
Really bad outfielder
Age COULD be a factor whether he lasts for more than 140 games
Pros –
Will definitely hit well in CBP – there really cannot be any question about that, this guy is probably a first ballot HOF er.
If he gets to bat 500 times and hits say 280 (that would be a career low for Vlad) – that means 140 base hits. He has a lifetime slugging percentage greater than .560 which would mean 280 plus total bases in there somewhere and given his career stats, if he manages 500 atbats, he’ll probably have 95 rbi.
I say if the money is reasonable go for it. If he seems to be hindering the team with his lack of defense and not showing a strong offense, dont give him too much rope. We have labored with Raul in left field when he was hitting for crap and Cholly kept him in there. What would be so different about trying Vlad (with much better offensive credentials) in right?
Posted: 02:49 PM on January 6, 2011
Posts: 2524 Chuck A.
Cholly ….Mr. Hitting Guru….would absolutely LOVE this guy. Maybe too much because I could see him in there more than he really should be.
Brooks, I’m on board with it…..IF the money is right….and IF he understands his role. However, I don’t see it happening…at least not right now.. Maybe in July he could be a good stretch run pick-up if the need is there.
I agree with Don… Ben Fran is “really going to impress if they give him regular playing time”. That’s really the way to go at this point I think.
Posted: 03:31 PM on January 6, 2011
Posts: 770 betasigmadeltashag
first to compare Vlad to Raul is laughable, he can not play D at all. Did you watch the WS. The Strength is pitching and DEFENSE. One does not put a guy like Vlad in LF ever if you want to win games. Ben Fran has played CF and is average to above average defensive player, not a great arm, will not win any gold gloves but is better then Vlad by a long shot. The idea you pay a guy 5 million dollars who is not going to play a whole season and will never play d is just crazy. Are you hanging with Dipsy and his Manny and Dye posts. You have your RF on the roster, Ben Fran, copy this post down I have said it before the guy is going to hit .265-.280 15-22 HR and 80-95 RBI batting in this line up if they all stay healthy
Posted: 08:13 PM on January 6, 2011
Posts: 2524 Chuck A.
beta, the article was written…and I responded to it. I never said that Vlad was a defensive wizard. In fact, I think I said that he sucked in the outfield.
BUT…for 5M…if the guy can give you 400 ABs….and give you .280/30/90…..I would think about it…even if he’s not the greatest defensively. Like I said earlier….play him for 6 innings and take him out once the Phillies have a nice lead.
And, I agree…give Ben Fran lots of playing time and he will produce.
Posted: 08:21 PM on January 6, 2011
Posts: 770 betasigmadeltashag
Sorry Chuck that was addressed to the post not you, I do not always read the coments before I comment on the post, I believe the author compared Vlad to Burrell and Raul.
Posted: 08:43 PM on January 6, 2011
Posts: 45 JakeyJ
I hope they let a Francisco,Brown,Gload and Mayberry platoon have a chance to improve offensively rather than take on an older defensive liability in the outfield. With the chance of playing on a championship caliber team,someone may bloom into the position just as Werth did. Will we get both the offense and defense that we had from Jason from one of these guys? It doesn’t appear so.But a defensive nosedive in right field does not help. Give the guys who had a below average year last season a chance to bounce back and platoon some in the out field and see what happens. The drop off may not be so bad after all.
Posted: 11:31 PM on January 6, 2011
Posts: 147 Don M
What the F’n F is this post? STICK TO THE TOPIC
Posted: 02:08 PM on January 6, 2011
Posts: 3468 Lefty
People get paid to place these things on websites in hopes that someone will click on them because they’re advertising something. Blog spam, I just flagged it.
Posted: 02:12 PM on January 6, 2011