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Just How Good Is This Phillies Rotation?

Posted by Michael Baumann, Thu, February 17, 2011 08:00 AM | Comments: 9
Analysis, Posts

How do the Phils' starters compare to the rest? Mike Baumann tells us with a scientific formula. (Photo: Eric Gay, AP)

Anyone who knows baseball knows that the 2011 Phillies will have an outstanding starting rotation, with four top-quality starting pitchers. Of course, there are a number of hyperbolic statements being tossed around about the Phillies’ starting pitchers: comparisons to the mid-90s Braves and 1971 Orioles or the expectation that all other NL teams need not even bother trying to win the pennant for the next two years.

I’ve been interested in the title question of this post pretty much since the moment the Cliff Lee signing was announced. After all, the Giants have a great rotation themselves, and if they can stay healthy, the Red Sox can throw out five very good veteran starters too. There was a lingering doubt in my head as to whether the Phillies even had the best rotation in baseball this season, so I decided to put the assertion “the Phillies have the best starting rotation in the game” to the test. Explanation and results after the jump.

What I came up with is speculative, crude, and hardly scientific, but I’m a social science grad student, so I have some experience in making what is, essentially, guesswork look convincingly scientific. Because it’s impossible to tell what the rotations of all 30 MLB teams will look like, much less how those pitchers will perform, I needed approximations. For the rotations, I took the projected lineups from mlbdepthcharts.com to form a list of 150 starting pitchers, 5 per team. To measure the value of each pitcher, I used Tom Tango’s Marcel Forecasting System, a fairly simple method of predicting a player’s upcoming season statistics using his performance the past three years. So how do we rank these 150 starting pitchers, and by extension, the rotations they belong to?

Well, there are two things you want from your starting pitcher: to pitch a lot of innings, and to pitch them well. This leads to a scoring system for starting pitchers so simple I’m almost embarrassed to describe it here: I subtracted the pitcher’s projected ERA for 2011 from the replacement level ERA for a starting pitcher in 2010 (5.01 for AL pitchers, 4.84 for NL pitchers), then multiplied the difference by the number of innings Marcel predicted he would pitch in 2011. This results in the score we’re interested in, a number between 1.18 for the lowest-ranked starting pitcher (Carlos Silva) and 453.53 for the highest (Felix Hernandez). The sum of these for any one team’s five-man rotation is the team’s score. Like I said, simple.

Full results follow, but to kill the suspense, yes, the Phillies do have the best rotation, and by quite a large margin. Moreover, each of the Phillies’ five starting pitchers compares very well to his competitors in his rotation spot. But before we move on, a few disclaimers and qualifications:

  • This is admittedly a very crude model, based not only on imperfect stats, but on imperfect predictions of those stats. There’s an adage in social science: “All statistical models are wrong, but some are useful.” I hope that’s the case here.
  • The only thing we know for sure is that people other than those listed here will add value to their various teams as starting pitchers–this is a preliminary list 5 weeks before Opening Day, so these rotations will change
  • Marcel is, as projection systems go, pretty good, but it is obviously not perfect, and it has some idiosyncrasies. For instance, in 2010, 45 pitchers threw 200 or more innings in MLB, but for 2011, Marcel predicts that only four will do so. In 2010, 15 starting pitchers qualified for the ERA title with an ERA under 3.00, but Marcel predicts that only two will do so this year. This conservatism is, as Tom Tango says, a hedge against ineffectiveness and injury when predicting specific players’ performances, not necessarily a belief that exceptionally good (or bad) performances will not happen in 2011.
  • For the purposes of this discussion, a “No. 1 starter” is not necessarily the player with the highest score on his team, but the person listed first by MLB Depth Charts, and so on. For example, John Danks of the White Sox comes up as the best pitcher on his team by far, but is No. 3 on the depth chart, so he’s listed here as a No. 3 starter, not as Chicago’s ace. Livan Hernandez is listed as Washington’s No. 1 starter, but he’s ranked not only as the worst starter in the Nationals’ rotation, but the second-worst in MLB. You get the idea.
  • Finally, because four of the five Phillies pitchers are 30 or older, and Marcel regresses to the mean and accounts for aging, it’s possible that because of quirks of the projection system, that the Phillies are actually underrated here.

But anyway, here is the full ranking of the 150 projected major league starters as individuals, and here are the team rankings. (Both links are Excel spreadsheet downloads).

For those of you who don’t have the time or inclination to peruse the spreadsheets, I’ll give you the highlights here:

  • The Phillies have the best rotation score by, like, a lot. They scored more than 10 percent higher than the next-best team, the Dodgers. Rounding out the Top 10: the Giants, the Cardinals, the A’s, the Angels, the Mariners, the Red Sox, the Brewers, and the White Sox.
  • Roy Halladay is projected to be the second-best ace, Cliff Lee the third-best No. 2 (behind Adam Wainwright and Matt Cain), Roy Oswalt the third-best No. 3 (behind Danks and Tommy Hanson of the Braves), and Hamels the second-best No. 4 (behind Clay Buchholz of the Red Sox, which is a quirk of the rating system; Buchholz led the AL in ERA last year and is probably something more like Boston’s No. 2 starter). Joe Blanton ranks 11th among fifth starters, behind Barry Zito, Jon Garland, Dice-K, and a bunch of guys I’d put money on not finishing the season as their teams’ fifth starters.
  • Felix Hernandez is expected to have a huge year. He’s the No. 1 overall pitcher, with his score beating his closest competitor (Halladay) by a full standard deviation. No one is projected to throw more innings or have a lower ERA this season. And remember that No. 8 ranking I gave the Mariners’ rotation? His score accounts for 49.2 percent of that. No other Mariner ranks in the top 50. Halladay, by comparison, is 30.6 percent of the Phillies’ score, and Trevor Cahill, ace of the fifth-ranked A’s, is only 27.7 percent of his team’s score.
  • Poor Washington. They’re projected to have the worst rotation. All five of their starters are ranked in the bottom 20 for their rotation spots, and only John Lannan (96th overall) cracks the top 100 starting pitchers. All others are 134th or worse, including No. 1 starter Livan Hernandez and No. 2 starter Jason Marquis, both the worst in baseball for their rotation spots.
  • On the other side of the coin, the Cardinals are the only team with two top-10 pitchers: ace Chris Carpenter (7th overall) and No. 2 Adam Wainwright (3rd overall). No. 3 starter Jaime Garcia, coming off a strong rookie campaign, ranks 33rd.
  • Four Phillies starters crack the top 25 overall: Halladay (2nd), Lee (13th), Oswalt (20th), and Hamels (25th). No other team even has three in the top 25, and only the Giants, Cards, Angels, and Red Sox have two.
  • Dallas Braden ranks 26th, one spot behind Hamels. I have no idea why he’s so high, apart from a huge ballpark and a great defense behind him.
  • Top to bottom, the only rotation that can compete with the Phillies’ is, unsurprisingly, the Giants’. Not only are Tim Lincecum (5th overall) and Matt Cain (11th) more or less a wash with Halladay and Lee, Barry Zito (83rd) has a clear advantage over Blanton, and Jonathan Sanchez (42nd) and Madison Bumgarner (68th, but only because of a very low projection for innings pitched) are close enough to Oswalt and Hamels that, in a playoff series, the rotations could realistically be called a wash. Of course, in a playoff series, Zito/Blanton wouldn’t matter, and I’m getting ahead of myself anyway.
  • The Dodgers, Red Sox, Twins, and Giants don’t have a pitcher ranked outside the top 100. The Rays ought not to have, either, but Jeremy Hellickson is only projected to pitch 57 innings.
  • The Royals and Pirates, ranked 29th and 28th, respectively, don’t have a starting pitcher between them who ranks better than 101st (Ross Ohlendorf). The Royals’ top pitcher is 117th-ranked Bruce Chen. In short, the worst Phillies starter (Blanton) is ranked higher than the best Royals starter. Yikes.

But we’ve gotten a little far afield from the original question: is the Phillies’ rotation the best in MLB for 2011? This projection system certainly seems to think so.

Got questions or grievances? Leave them in the comments or ask me directly on Twitter @atomicruckus.

Avatar of Michael Baumann

About Michael Baumann

Michael Baumann has written 229 articles on Phillies Nation.

Michael is a graduate student at Temple University who lost his childlike innocence when, at the age of 6, his dad let him stay up for the end of Game 6 of the 1993 World Series. Unsettled by the Phillies' recent success, he has threatened over the years to leave the team he loves if they don't start losing again, but has so far been unable to follow through. Michael spent 4 years as an undercover agent in Braves territory at the University of South Carolina, where he covered football and soccer for The Daily Gamecock before moving back up north. He began writing for The Phrontiersman in June 2009 before moving to Phillies Nation in January 2010.

 
 
  • Posts: 193 bfo_33

    Avatar of

    Michael, interesting and enjoyable. One thing which may improve the analysis is using adjusted ERA. This will clean up the advantage guys like Pelfry, Braden, Linecum…, get from pitching half their games in a pitcher’s park. I think you’ll find the Phils are even better, probably see the Cards and White Sox 2nd and 3rd.

    I also think you give a little too much emphasis on the spot in the rotation, which only really matters the first week or two. Very few teams have 5 guys start all the games anyway – average is probably closer to 8 for a competing team (which is more likely to have established starters), with a team like the Pirates or KC throwing out 10+ starters.

    Nicely done.

     
    • Posts: 35 Michael Baumann

      Avatar of Michael Baumann

      Both points are well taken. I was going to just use WAR and be done with it, but the spreadsheet with the predictions that I downloaded didn’t have WAR or FIP (though FanGraphs does have Marcel-predicted FIP). Besides, it’s not like these predictions are super-accurate anyway.
      As for the rotation spot thing, I just thought it was an interesting way to look at it, because answering that question is as much about perception as anything else. If that’s not for you, no worries, you can download the raw data and look at the pitchers by overall rank. There’s no shortage of different ways to approach this question.
      Thanks again for reading, and for your kind words.

       
  • Posts: 3053 Tracey

    Avatar of Tracey

    Thanks, Michael! Now all we have to do is score some runs. I’d hate to see a whole season of 1-0 losses!

     
  • Posts: 1190 Manny

    Avatar of Manny

    Interesting stuff, Michael. Thanks for putting this together.

    Overall, seems like a fair assessment but I was surprised that the Dodgers were ranked that high (based on Marcel). Kershaw, Billingsley, ok.. but Lilly’s, Kuroda’s , and Garland’s innings pitched seems to be pretty inflated, bumping the team up all the way to 2nd place in the rankings.

     
  • Posts: 147 Don M

    Avatar of Don M

    Michael . . . not to give a homework assignment, but is there any way you could post last years PRE SEASON predictions… and then what really happened?

    I think the Dodgers staff has some good pitchers.. I think Billingsley is overrated .. but Lilly and Kuroda are both underrated… Kuroda has given the Phillies fits before, and when he’s healthy I think he’s got nasty stuff

    Wainwright is clearly a better pitcher than Carpenter when they are both on top of their game… but it just shows you that ROTATION #s don’t mean much… If you #2 is better than your #1 … then everyone knows who the #1 really is.. etc.

    Hellickson is only projected to start 57 Innings, why?? He’ll start the year in the rotation.. are they projecting an injury.. or not projecting him to start the year in the Majors??

    I wish i liked all these crazy graphs and charts and stuff more… because im otherwise a stats-geek for baseball .. but I think the most telling are the improvements in ERA and WHIP … K/9 .. Batting Avg against… How dominant is a pitcher, and just how tough are they to get on base against, etc

     
  • Posts: 147 Don M

    Avatar of Don M

    Also … Im no good at Excel.. anyone know how to make the OVERALL RANK get listed in order from Highest to Lowest?

    Also . . . I know Lincecum is nasty.. but last year in my keeper league trade deadline … I traded Lincecum for Jered Weaver.. which sounds dumb. But Lincecum only has 1 “Keep” left, so after this season he goes back into the draft pool . . . Weaver has 4 “Keeps” left …

    Ubaldo Jimenez, Jered Weaver, and probably Brandon Morrow to start next season (or Gavin Floyd, Edwin Jackson, Ian Kennedy, Ricky Nolasco???) … anyone with an opinion on those last 5, let me know

     
    • Posts: 193 bfo_33

      Avatar of

      Highlight the data in the spreadsheet, on the top menu click data, then sort. Click the button for header row included, then can sort ascending or descending.

      I grew up with the standard stats (era, innings pitched, wins), and still have a tendency to lean on them prettily heavily, but am trying to embrace things x-FIP,… I don’t think I’ll ever really be happy with WAR and UZR – defensive metrics are somewhat subjective and need a huge sample size (see the Giants outfield last year, which was pretty terrible by the eye test, but had one of the better uzrs), and WAR makes a lot of assumptions. WAR is useful when comparing positional players.

       
  • Posts: 2069 Brooks

    Avatar of Brooks

    Michael thanks for the lesson in futility 8 – (

    There are just too many unknowns. First, last year “The Year of the Pitcher” was not just something that generated out of thin air. The power numbers were pretty much down accross the board except for a very few. The umpires will adjust for that this year, you will see plenty of batters with 40 (+) hrs (probably that Reynolds in Baltimore too) and averages up all over the place. As you can tell, my unknown is dressed in black. But, the point is the overall pitching stats for 2010 will be quite different in 2011.

    This bodes well for the Phils of course, minus JW – they are still by far the most potent offense in either league (Jimmy, dont let us down!) and the pitching is the cream of the league as well.

    Regardless, your homework has the Phils exactly in the position that most of us knew – #1

     
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