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Examining the Roster, Part 2

Posted by Pat Gallen, Thu, May 19, 2011 11:03 AM | Comments: 87
Analysis, News, Opinion, Posts

How close is Dom Brown to the Phillies? A quick ride down the turnpike.

Earlier this week, I examined the Phillies roster with a number of moves that will have to be made. The carousel of players may not stop turning any time soon as the injuries continue to mount. Shane Victorino is now likely to have an MRI on his leg, so he could be the next one to hit the DL. Someone new will be forced to step in and attempt to help a tattered roster.

[EXAMINING THE ROSTER, PART 1]

Here’s a look at the updated roster:

  • Infield: Howard, Valdez, Orr, Rollins, Polanco, Ruiz, Sardinha (7)
  • Outfield: Ibanez, Victorino, Francisco, Mayberry, Gload, Martinez (6)
  • SP: Halladay, Lee, Oswalt, Hamels, Blanton, (5)
  • RP: Madson, Bastardo, Romero, Baez, Kendrick, Stutes, Matheison (7)
  • DL: Lidge, Contreras, Utley, Schneider (4)

With the inability to get people out, Danys Baez and JC Romero are on a very short leash – at least they should be. Here are a few more moves that should be made by this team. Because they are no longer getting anything positive from several players:

DOMONIC BROWN FOR WILSON VALDEZ

Originially, I believed that Josh Barfield should be brought up for Valdez, just to change things up a bit. That was before I listened to Ruben Amaro say two feet from me that Domonic Brown is nearly ready. Amaro said its a matter of “when” and not “if”. Let the countdown begin. There is really nothing more he can do in the minor leagues. How long can you let the guy tear up lesser pitching before being tested once again at the highest level. Cutting Valdez leaves Orr and Martinez as your utility guys.

(NOTE: If Victorino hits the DL, it’s likely a Brown-for-Victorino trade off instead).

CHASE UTLEY FOR MICHAEL MARTINEZ

Speaking of Martinez, he has to go when Chase comes back. Martinez is not doing anything Orr cannot already do. The idea of keeping the Rule 5 guy around would be a good one, if he wasn’t a light-hitting, 5’9″, 140 pound utility guy that’s 28 years old. There is nothing wrong with Michael Martinez, but if you’re a team with World Series aspirations, you can’t try to slip a Rule 5 guy through the cracks on your roster for another season.  I figure the Phillies will still want to keep him around, but they may not have a choice once the healthy regulars return.

RON MAHAY or MIKE ZAGURSKI for JC ROMERO

Zagurski really hasn’t done much and Mahay has retired (or is unemployed), but it doesn’t matter. They are both equal to or greater than the option of JC Romero. He has flat out lost the ability to throw strikes, unless you count the one to Lance Berkman a strike. JC has done the Phillies a world of good during his tenure, however, they should have let him go when they had the opportunity. Right now, he’s hurting them. Make a call to Mahay, who has had very good numbers as a LOOGY in his career, or try Zagurski once again. Just because Romero is a veteran doesn’t mean it’s the correct move to continue using him.

DREW CARPENTER, BRIAN GORDON, or MICHAEL SCHWIMER for DANYS BAEZ

Any one of these guys is a similar option to Baez, without the big contract. Baez is basically toast an it seems to be a matter of time before he’ll have to pack his things and say adios. My personal favorite here is Schwimer, but any of the three will do. Once Brad Lidge were to return, this spot will be filled anyway, so it would only be for about a month.

VANCE WORLEY for JOE BLANTON

We’ll be able to tell a little bit more on Thursday night after Blanton makes his start – but clearly something is up in that elbow. Amaro doesn’t think it’s a huge deal and neither does Blanton. However, if this is something that knocks him out soon, make the move to Worley and shut Blanton down. Big Joe is still an important piece to this team down the road, so a healthy Joe Blanton is essential. Not a 75 percent-healthy Joe Blanton. And we all know Worley is more than ready.

Avatar of Pat Gallen

About Pat Gallen

Pat Gallen has written 1684 articles on Phillies Nation.

Pat is Editor-in-Chief of Phillies Nation. He also covers the Phils for 97.5 FM in Philly.

 
 
  • Posts: 0 pan

    Between Valdez and Martinez going, I’d say Martinez.

    He hasn’t shown anything at all.

    We can almost book that either Rollins or Polanco will get hurt, and Valdez proved he can play both those positions well.

     
    • Posts: 1435 Pat Gallen

      Avatar of Pat Gallen

      Pan, I think they’ll try to find a way to keep both. But Pete Orr can do what both are doing. He has some wheels and plays decent defense.

       
  • Posts: 31 Josh

    Avatar of Josh

    While I agree with you that Worley is ready, I think the Phills are reluctant to shut down Big Joe because he is (for better or worse) one of the tradable (or expendable) commodities on the roster. Once they give in to an injury, his value is gone…even to a desperate team. So for that reason, if he is healthy enough to go, he has to pitch.

     
  • Posts: 0 Chuck

    Valdez is more valuable than a lot of people give him credit for. I think he’s MORE versatile than Orr and can hit a little too. Sure…he hits into DPs.. But he also gets some hits (ahem…..last night…. offensive hero of the game…) and has great defensive skills.

    I like Orr, but he has an option left so it should be used since Valdez doesn’t flat out suck.

     
    • Posts: 427 Publius

      Avatar of Publius

      Ah yes, the “offensive hero of the game” with the courageous single in the eighth, with an OPS worse than that of Pete Orr. Please. As for the “great defensive skills”…that’s up for debate and is simply not substantiated by the numbers, like his career UZR/150 of -2 at second base. It’s not terrible, but it’s definitely not great either. Valdez is a mediocre glove with an atrocious bat, also known as someone who flat out sucks. Let him go, or let some other team take him on through waivers.

       
      • Posts: 0 Chuck

        Do you want WINS ???…. or do you want fancy stats that don’t tell the WHOLE STORY???

        Valdez helped to WIN the game last night….a win that the Phillies realllllllyyyy needed….and you can’t even acknowledge it. And you call yourself a Phillies fan???

         
      • Posts: 427 Publius

        Avatar of Publius

        I definitely do want wins the Phillies, and I think that in order to get the most wins, the Phillies should play the players who give them the best chance of winning (radical concept, I know). In the competition between Valdez and Orr, their career records show that Orr simply gives the Phils a better chance of winning (an admittedly VERY slim increase, but an increase nonetheless). One small game sample like yesterday does not change this.

        Really I should be questioning YOUR Phillies fandom, since you want the Phils to play inferior players at the cost of making them more likely to win games.

         
    • Posts: 0 Phylan

      Wilson Valdez cannot hit “a little,” he can’t hit at all. He has a .587 OPS right now. That is really, really bad. .247/.277/.309. Really, really bad.

       
  • Avatar of Dropped Strike Three

    Sadly, Wilson Valdez may have just earned himself a stay of execution with his performance last night. I like all of the moves listed, but I think the best you can hope for is 2 of the 5 happening within the next month. I suspect that the leash with some of these guys is longer than we think…

     
  • Posts: 0 Andrew From Waldorf

    Come on guys
    There has to be some scenario where pubic bone trades every player and every player to be named later for a bag of golf balls and a douche bag.
    I mean the player to be named will have an incredible WAR and a great batting average vs players from Cleavland born on Wednesdays with a last name starting with K

    There has to be some stat somewhere that verifies it.

    And then we can watch baseball and see the game and discuss the stats.

    Or you can make up a stat and live where you dont play the game.
    You read stats.
    Last I checked they play baseball

    And wins are unimportant

    Carry on

     
  • Posts: 0 Andrew From Waldorf

    Then lets make up some more stats
    and every year the Mets win the world series

    The stats prove it out.

     
    • Posts: 35 Michael Baumann

      Avatar of Michael Baumann

      That’s very nearly a haiku. And very nearly as nonsensical.

       
  • Posts: 427 Publius

    Avatar of Publius

    Yes clearly I am pulling up arbitrary numbers with ridiculous qualifiers to produce opinions which make no sense. Excellent argument.

    Baseball players play games, which I watch devotedly. As they play games, they produce outcomes which are quantitative and can be studied using math. With these stats we can look at the patterns of these outcomes and come up with pretty good guesses as to which players are better than others, and which people we would rather have on our team than others. Seems pretty simple and logical, but I could see how a person like you could get flustered and has trouble understanding it.

     
    • Posts: 0 Chuck

      So what was the “outcome” of last night’s game?? And what “outcome” did Wilson Valdez have?? Surely you know…because you say you watch the games….”devotedly”

       
  • Posts: 0 Andrew From Waldorf

    The roulette wheel shows previous outcomes.

    Why?

    Why do you believe it matters?

    Its a roulette wheel.

    They put it up for dummies.

    Then came you

    If I have hit into 4 double plays today it means i am no more or less likely to hit into another one.

    But wins are unimportant. And then people like you look at the previous rolls on the roulette wheel and think it matters.

    Type how Ben Fran is likely to not do such and such. Its the law of averages.

    No you spin the wheel and its 50/50. But not really they have a green 00 for people like you and so the house can win.

     
    • Avatar of Dropped Strike Three

      “If I have hit into 4 double plays today it means i am no more or less likely to hit into another one. ”

      Well that’s just flat out wrong. If Valdez had a full season’s worth of ABs last season, his numbers projected for about 34 double plays. That would put him #3 on the all time single season list. That’s not some crazy SABr stat. It’s just a fact.

       
  • Posts: 0 pan

    Blanton as a tradeable commodity is a myth.
    Why would a team trade for that contract when they can get the kind of numbers he puts up from one of your minor leaguers?

     
  • Posts: 122 Jay aka Phillyboy

    Avatar of Jay aka Phillyboy

    free d. brown!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

     
  • Posts: 19 Moondog

    Avatar of Moondog

    Let’s get real. Ibanez will be DFA’d at some point. Might as well be when Brown is ready. Keep Martinez and send Orr down. He has options. If Ruben can find any right handed bat then dump Francisco.

     
  • Posts: 193 bfo_33

    Avatar of

    People tend to selectively remember the most recent performance, esp if it is a late inning catch/hit that helps win the game. Baseball is played over 6 mos, things can get lost easily. Stats help determine whether your memories match reality. In Valdez’s case, the memory of last night’s win doesn’t match his performance over the past month. While he makes contact, he swings at everything, and always puts the ball on the ground, often weakly (8 ground balls for every ball that makes it out of the infield in the air). Orr is at 1.5 gb per fb. Avg, slug%,…, both about the same – the main difference is Orr hasn’t hit into a double play yet this season.

    UZR requires a ton of data points – taking 37 games worth doesn’t mean much. For his career, Valdez is average. This is good enough for a back-up. Martinez and Orr don’t have enough data points to reasonably come up with a value, but by eye test, appear about the same. Put any one of the three in there, not going to see a lot of difference.

    Still on the win thing Andrew? Who is the better pitcher in 2010 – Phil Hughes at 18-8, with a 4.2 era, pitched 176 innings, or Felix Hernandez, 13-12, 2.27 era, 249 innings pitched. Do you think Hughes might have been helped a little with run support (Yanks scored 859, Mariners, 513). The point was that wins for a starting pitcher are not a valid measure of a pitcher’s ability, but are everything for the team.

     
  • Posts: 0 Andrew From Waldorf

    If I win the lottery today at 1 in a million

    Am I more or less likely to win tomorrow?

    No I am 1 in a million.

    But they will put up past performances for you

    Holy cow
    I am on a blog where 300 wins and wins are unimportant.

    I guess its refreshing. On a planet where you dont need air. I put air up there.
    Its only the gold standard.

     
  • Posts: 0 Andrew From Waldorf

    Ill take 18 wins over 13

    So its paper champions now?

    Moral victories and K per 9 and K/BB ratios

    Stop
    Crown them

     
  • Posts: 0 Chuck

    Pubes… it doesn’t surprise me a bit that you bash Valdez EVERY CHANCE YOU GET….after all, you’re the same person that would choose Billy Butler or Justin Smoak ( both nice ballplayers) OVER Ryan Howard.

     
  • Posts: 5222 Lefty

    Avatar of Lefty

    Andrew and Publius are like the Democrats and Republicans. Both are right, both are wrong.

    There are no absolutes in predicting performance. There are no absolutes in politics.

    The eyeball test works, and the stats work- but Democrats and Republicans can’t meet in the middle because they’re to stubborn in protecting their constituency. Ultimately the only thing that works is trial and error. When nothing gets accomplished due to protecting one’s beliefs, it’s usually because no fair trial was ever granted.

    Many years ago I heard Jesse Jackson debating Walter Mondale in a democratic primary race, when he exclaimed that every out of work black man really wanted to work. Later that year Ronald Reagan said that was not true, that there were plenty of jobs, but many americans (both white an black) really didn’t want them.

    The problem is they were both wrong. There are no absolutes.

    A meeting of the minds between you two could produce awesome results if each of you weren’t so far to one side or the other.

    There was no statistical evidence that lifetime mediocre pitcher Steve Stone would suddenly win a Cy Young. There was no evidence pointing to Jose Bautista suddenly becoming a powerful home run hitter. The past is not always an accurate predictor of the future, but it CAN be, and a large % of the time it is. The past can also deceive you into expectations that can’t be met.

    The eyeball test works, it takes into account intangibles that sabermatricians can’t see. The advanced stats work too, they give us a much more accurate insight into players body of work. But, for example, Chase Utlley’s WAR is virtually useless now that we can’t predict his health.

    That’s my rant for the day, sorry if I just bored the heck out of everyone :)

     
  • Posts: 0 Andrew From Waldorf

    I guess its a straight gamblers mentality

    I bet on the horse that wins.

    Others bet on the horse with the best time or closing quarter or breeding.
    I factor those then I bet on the horse who will win.

    I guess if we all bet on the winning horse I couldnt make a profit.

     
  • Posts: 5222 Lefty

    Avatar of Lefty

    @ Chuck- I hope you understood that my post the other day about trading Cole Hamels was a sarcastic way of saying- why is everyone freaking out? We’re playing pretty well, and a little tinkering here and there is all that’s needed to shore up the pen and RH bat. What I meant was we shouldn’t panic, and DON’T have to trade our brightest stars and prospects. The Giants found Ross and Burell on the scrap heap for almost nothing, and with a base of great pitching and defense, we can do the same.

     
  • Posts: 0 Andrew From Waldorf

    This is my issue with the stat geeks

    If I flip a coin 100 times in a row and its heads every time

    Is it more or less likely to be heads or tails the 101 time?

    Its 50/50

    Sometimes I think they are missing a good game.
    Its fun to watch baseball. where Beltran has better WAR and other stats than Victorino but he really isnt fit to carry Victoinos jock to the laundry room.

     
  • Posts: 193 bfo_33

    Avatar of

    Here’s the difference between gidp vs winning the lottery. Lottery is pure chance. When you put the ball on the ground 8xs for every fly ball, it is not chance that you hit into a lot of double plays.
    I haven’t checked through every player in the major leagues, but on the Phils, he has by far the highest ratio – worse than even the pitchers. Martinez is at 5, no other position player is above 2. You have a better chance of getting a fly ball from Cliff Lee (7 gb/fb) than you do from Valdez. When you put the ball on the ground almost exclusively, you will ground into a lot of double plays, it is not a coincidence. If you choose to trust your eyes and luck, that is your choice, but Wilson Valdez will continue to hit ground balls, and if there is a guy on first, he’ll continue to hit into double plays….. a lot.

     
  • Posts: 1435 Pat Gallen

    Avatar of Pat Gallen

    Andrew, with all due respect, you would not take those 18 wins over the 13 wins. Youre looking at it from a stubborn perspective. Hughes lucked into those 18 wins. You would take the Yankees, who got him those wins, but you would not take Hughes over Felix. He is by far better than Hughes, just because the W has an 18 next to it only means his offense was better. You know that!

     
    • Posts: 0 biz

      W/L is a flawed stat. It is not indicative of a pitchers skills and abilities.

      Felix was easily the best pitcher in the AL last year. Seattle’s offense cost him a dozen wins.

       
  • Posts: 0 biz

    Orr is the one going down.

    And when DBrown finally gets the call, I’d like to see JMJ moved to left. He’s the only corner OF who’s earned the time. But that won’t happen, because Cholly is loyal to a fault. Raul will be here all year, batting .240, slugging .380, and making us all very upset.

     
  • Posts: 0 Don M

    Im late to the table . . . so I don’t feel like getting involved. I will say that Valdez is “useful” but there probably isn’t a need for him, Orr, Martinez all on the same roster. Orr looks like he has the best wheels, and maybe Martinez has the most versatility and maybe most upside?


    Pubulius… I’ve been meaning to ask you but wanted to wait for a day when we weren’t arguing. I think you’ve stated you’re a Mariners fan? And I also think you said you don’t live in Philly? …

    Are there any players on the Phillies – or anything about the organization that you DO like? It seems like you always paint such a bleak picture and tell us why they are all overrated, overpaid, etc. …from your comments, I take it that they suck, and so I can’t comprhend why you spend so much time “following” a team full of terrible players?

     
    • Posts: 427 Publius

      Avatar of Publius

      I grew up in West Chester for 10 years and have followed the Phils ever since, thanks to the magic of MLB.tv. I follow the Phils just as I follow the M’s, through thick and thin, because they are who I grew up following.

      As for Phillies I like, there are actually quite a few. Watching Madson become a league-beating closer has been a joy. Polanco was a good signing. Chase Utley is simply amazing, even when not fully 100%. I have nothing but awesome respect and appreciation for the 4 aces. Carlos Ruiz is underappreciated. I also like Ben Francisco, and think he is due for a huuuuuge positive regression. I look forward to following Dom Brown’s career and think he’s gonna be an really good player.

      I also like Ryan Howard, I simply don’t like his contract. Howard is a good player with great power in an era where slugging is at a premium. The problem is I don’t think he’s the elite 1B everyone else on here thinks him to be. He’s, at best, among the top 10 first basemen in the game, but definitely not the top 5 (I’d take Votto/Cabrera/Pujols/Fielder/Gonzalez going forward any day over Howard), yet he’s being paid like one. Ibanez is a travesty, though I knew that from his days as a Mariner, and immediately hated the signing.

      I know I can come across as “negative”, but my goal is simply to ground fan’s beliefs in reality rather than get caught up in heady homerism, which leads to absurd stances like Howard being the “pre-eminent slugger of his time” and Wilson Valdez being indispensable for some reason.

       
      • Posts: 19 Moondog

        Avatar of Moondog

        Cabrera better than Howard really? He has off the field issues and I doubt if he’ll be in the league in a couple of years. Fielder is another guy who has issues. Howard is the premiere power hitter in the game. No one to protect him now and he still wins games. Who cares what he’s paid? Pujols will get a monster contract and he won’t live up to it either. Take Howard away from the Phils and they’re in third place.

         
  • Posts: 193 bfo_33

    Avatar of

    When I watch a game, I watch a game for the entertainment. I don’t have my calculator out.

    I don’t think you understand the difference between chance and probability. If you flipped a coin 50 times, and it landed on heads all 50 times, chances are that the coin is weighted on the tales side, and I would certainly bet on heads again (making sure that the qtr wasn’t changed out). Statistics usually don’t provide a conclusion, but indicate further exploration.

    If there is a 50% chance of a back up on the expressway eastbound Sundays at 12:00 pm in the summer, does that mean it is random? If it were me, I’d check to see what correlates to the back-up, and would find that the Phils are playing a home game about half the Sundays around 1pm, and take an alternate route if I had to be somewhere while the Phils were at home. You could just gamble and hope for the best.

     
  • Posts: 0 Don M

    Tickets to the game tonight . . . 80% chance to see an All-Star, Cy Young type pitcher any time you go to a Phillies game – except when I get tickets before the season starts, and it plays out that i get to see Hoagie Joe vs. Chacin

    Chacin, who is FILTHY at time,

     
    • Posts: 0 Chuck

      Watch him throw a complete game shutout. (Probably not).

       
  • Posts: 0 Andrew From Waldorf

    Yes I understand the game.

    Do you play to win the game?

    If a guy is 6-15 for 20 years with 1.00 ERA
    I want a guy with the 2.00 ERA who is 15-6 for 20 years

    I get frustrated when 16 Ks and a loss are better than 0 Ks and a win

    There is situational pitching and keeping your team in the game
    Moyer was a perfect example.
    The Valdez BS is an example too of fans not getting it

    Also I come off as a pompus ass who thinks my opinions are gold.
    Its not meant to be that way its just how I talk.

     
    • Posts: 0 biz

      That’s ridiculous. The W/L stat has absolutely ZERO to do with a pitchers ability. The pitcher who posts an ERA of 1.00 gives your team a much better chance to win then the pitcher who posts a 2.00 ERA. W/L is all about offense. ERA and WHIP are the defining stats for a pitcher. W/L is a joke. Cole almost got a ND after last nights performance due to lack of offense. Would you rather have a pitcher who went 5 innings, gave up 4 runs, but got a W because his team dropped 10 runs on the other pitcher? That’s absurd.

       
  • Posts: 15 RichieAllen

    Avatar of RichieAllen

    Holy Cow….If I didnt know better ,I’d think we were a last place team,based on the doomesday above.
    I’m glad I dont worry about such shit.
    Go Phills…By the way…Who is still in first?

     
  • Posts: 0 Don M

    These arguements are getting crazier by the day . . . .

    I think we all realize that WINS come from a team, but a starting picther has the ability to shut the other team down. So i think what he was trying to say was that, as long as the team wins – the individual pitcher stat line isn’t all that important

    Which is the grand scheme of things is true…

    But a pitcher with a 1.00 ERA… is better than a pitcher with a 2.00 ERA, im not sure what the argument is there? Everyone needs a deep breathe, and a beer, and some sizzex on this blog.. time to all chill a little and have fun instead of daily arguements, calling each other morons

     
  • Posts: 0 Andrew From Waldorf

    I am in bizaro world where wins arent important

    Yes a pitcher who is 20-0 with a 10.00 ERA
    is better than a 0-20 pitcher with a 1.00 ERA

    you say absurd

    And thats really what it is.

    Is it absurd to rather win 21-20 than lose 1-0?

    I am typing to people who think wins are worthless and meaningless.
    I probably need to stop like dipsy and take a break

    I dont think I can live in a world where Ks per 9 and K/BB ratio is more imprtant than wins.

    Somewhere along the line to alot of people stats became too important.
    I read and observe moneyball. But you play to win.

    In bizaro world Mpyer can never even have a career

     
    • Posts: 427 Publius

      Avatar of Publius

      It’s amazing to me how a person who derides other people by telling them to “watch the games, not the spreadsheets,” thinks that baseball is fully dominated by chance. If every outcome were simply the result of luck, then there would be no patterns but random distribution. If every AB was a 50/50 chance of a hit, then every batters average would be around .500.

      Also, it seems to me that you’re either being purposefully ignorant or not understanding the argument of wins/losses. The fact is that a pitcher with a better xFIP, K/BB or other stats are more likely to win on a given night simply because they are a better pitcher. BUT pitchers cannot fully control wins/losses. I’m also a Mariners fan, and watching Felix last year was a testament to this. Felix “lost” a half dozen games where he gave up less than 3 runs over 8 innings, simply because the Mariners offense was so anemic. Felix cannot control how well the Michael Saunderses or Jack Wilsons of the world hit for him, he can only control the other side.

      I would *love* if you were the GM of the Braves or another NL East team. It would make the Phillies’ job a lot easier.

       
  • Posts: 0 NorCalPhil

    We need to call the A’s – they have 5 LH RP’s and a surplus of OF in the majors and AAA. Bring back Outman and Taylor!

     
  • Posts: 0 biz

    “I am in bizaro world where wins arent important

    Yes a pitcher who is 20-0 with a 10.00 ERA
    is better than a 0-20 pitcher with a 1.00 ERA

    You’re in bizarro world because you think a pitcher with a 10.00 ERA is better than a pitcher with a 1.00 ERA because one gets run support and the other doesn’t. Wins are a team stat. Wins are important to a team. And a pitcher with an ERA of 1.00 gives your TEAM a much better chance to win than a pitcher with a 10.00 ERA. It’s pretty simple stuff, really.

    You’re basing the quality of a pitcher on his run support, which has ZERO to do with how he pitches.

    Hopefully this will start to clear things up for you a bit.

     
  • Posts: 0 Andrew From Waldorf

    You are winning 15-0
    your curveball needs work
    So you chalk a few up to some hitters

    they hit homers.

    Your ERA goes up

    But your curveball is better for it

    You are a better pitcher and your ERA goes up
    Its possible

    I will buy you tickets to a high school game pubstick.
    But you cant keep track of the stats just who wins or loses.
    Thats what they put in the paper the win and loss record

     
    • Posts: 427 Publius

      Avatar of Publius

      You do realize that, if this situation somehow happened in reality, the pitcher’s ERA would actually go down in the long run since his curveball is better and he becomes a better pitcher? Which, in turn, pretty much negates your whole argument?

       
  • Posts: 0 Andrew From Waldorf

    Ask Lee or Haladay whats more important

    Except on a blog where a ratio trumps winning

     
    • Posts: 0 biz

      What does their opinion have to do with pitching? You clearly stated that a pitcher with an ERA of 10.00 is better than a pitcher with an ERA of 1.00 if he gets run support. I have no argument with saying wins are more important, but that’s not what you were arguing.

      Don’t reframe your argument now.

      If you switched teams, and put the pitcher with an ERA of 1.00 on the team that mashes, he’d also get 20 wins.

      Sorry Andrew, Hughes is not better than Felix because he gets more wins. All that tells me is that the Yankees have a better offense, which has nothing to do with pitching.

      I’m sure you’ll have another stupid response to this. Maybe you’ll try to reframe the debate again. Whatever. I’m growing weary of trying to point out the obvious. I have work to do.

       
    • Posts: 427 Publius

      Avatar of Publius

      2 years ago I had the pleasure of playing golf with Jim Abott (who still kicked my butt despite only having one hand). He had a very odd career. In 1991 he was 18-7 as a starter with the then-California Angels with a 2.89 ERA. In 1992 he was 7-15 with a 2.77 ERA. I literally asked him this question: which year do you consider as your “best” year. He said 1992 was better, because he felt that he had the best success that year, even though he was 7-15. If you got Lee, Halladay or any other pitcher away from reporters and asked them their genuine opinion, I would bet they would qualify success in the same way.

       
  • Posts: 0 biz

    “Ask Lee or Haladay whats more important

    Except on a blog where a ratio trumps winning”

    - You’re on a blog where the following is considered dumbassery:

    “I am in bizaro world where wins arent important

    Yes a pitcher who is 20-0 with a 10.00 ERA
    is better than a 0-20 pitcher with a 1.00 ERA”

    - A pitcher with an ERA of 10.00 is NEVER better (your words) than a pitcher with an ERA of 1.00. The better pitcher is the better pitcher. The better pitcher is not defined by how well his team hits. End of discussion.

     
  • Posts: 0 Don M

    Andrew, Im not even sure what you’re arguing . . . and Im not sure that you do right now either??

    Everyone on here is saying that WINS are important, but that they aren’t the best indicator of how good a pitcher is..

    When Jamie Moyer wins 15 games, with an ERA approaching 5 .. it doesn’t mean that he is a better pitcher than Hamels, who won only 10 games with an ERA around 3 … It just means that Moyer’s team helped him more than Hamels’ did …

    Currently:
    Aaron Harang on the Padres has 5 wins, but a 5.05 ERA
    Josh Johnson on the Marlins has 3 wins, but a 1.64 ERA
    Cliff Lee has only 3 wins, with a 3.84 ERA

    By your logic, Harrang is better than those two ?

     
  • Posts: 0 MplsPhilsFan

    Andrew, I do not post here very often, primarily because I enjoy reading the reasoned and intelligent comments from many of the other posters. Yours, however, are extremely grating. You state that you are not trying to be obnoxious and that you do not want to come across as a know it all whose opinions are gold, but I think that is disingenuous.

    You know exactly what you are doing, and that is trying to antagonize other people who post here. Congratulations, you have succeeded.

    Are wins important? Of course they are, but to use that as the sole measure of a pitcher’s effectiveness is short-sighted at best and moronic at worst. Under your methodology, would you penalize a pitcher who allowed 0 earned runs to score, but lost the game because of errors that allowed unearned runs?

    If that is your stated position, then I would suggest taking a deep breath, logging off your computer, and going downstairs where the rest of the people in the rest home are watching a repeat of Lawrence Welk

     
  • Posts: 1190 Manny

    Avatar of Manny

    Are we really debating wins for pitchers? I thought that was a non-issue nowadays…

     
  • Posts: 0 Andrew From Waldorf

    I am arguing or stating this

    Next year if I miracle myself to pitch for the Dodgers with a 15 ERA and win 100 games am I good?

    Or you would rather lose 100 games with someone with a lower ERA?

    At some point the stat geeks got a hold of things and perverted them

    No more or no less than I am now

    Its like the people who complain about the old man or think Beltran is a hall of famer and great.

    By the way in the NL a pitcher hits. So he really completely controls the outcome. Throw a perfect game and hit a homer
    End of discussion

     
    • Posts: 427 Publius

      Avatar of Publius

      I’d rather have the offense that could somehow win 100 games with such a terrible pitcher than the offense of the other team.

      Or are you hilariously thinking that pitchers and pitchers alone determine outcomes?

       
      • Posts: 0 Andrew From Waldorf

        I am hillariously thinking that people type this

        WINS ARE UNIMPORTANT

        which is as stupid as someone thinking that pitchers alone determine the outcome of a game

         
      • Posts: 427 Publius

        Avatar of Publius

        PITCHING WINS are unimportant. Total win/loss record is definitely important. I don’t think anyone is arguing against this.

        Your problem is that you think the two are equal, when in fact they are not, especially for starting pitchers.

         
  • Avatar of Dropped Strike Three

    What does Roulette and Flipping a Coin have to do with baseball? What a terrible argument to bring up…

     
  • Posts: 0 Andrew From Waldorf

    Pubstick says that law of averages equal out
    He wants Ben Fran to play because some stat says he should get hot
    Which is absurd

    I am saying that if you flip a coin 100 times and its all heads
    the next flip its 50/50 to be heads

    But thats why the show the previous rolls and spins. So people like you think they matter.

    They wouldnt show them if you didnt think they mattered
    I know they dont

     
    • Posts: 427 Publius

      Avatar of Publius

      “Pubstick says that law of averages equal out”

      I…wait what? So now we’re moving from terrible analogies to putting words into peoples’ mouths?

      If you think that every AB is simply a coin flip, then why do good players have better outcomes than bad players? If it were truly random, then there would be no such patterns. You are clinging to analogies that have no actual relationship to baseball. Maybe try watching a game?

      And I’m not even gonna go into detail about my claims of Ben Frank getting hot. I’ll let the next month or so of outcomes do it for me.

       
  • Posts: 0 Bob in Bucks

    Andrew/Pubius – Could you take this outside? Some of us would like to exchange views on the Phils, not be caught in your personal rants against each other or wins vs ERA/WHIP (although I believe W-L should not be assigned to a single player in a team game).

    Back to the original post – Charlie obviously sees something in Martinez so he will stay. I don’t see what he sees but Charlie has excellent instincts so I go with him.

    I don’t see Brown coming up, his swing still has the same problems it had before and until he gets that fixed he will fail in the ML. Charlie will continue to mix and match and play the hot hand. For Charlie it is simple, you hit, you play.

    Blanton’s last outings were pretty good and I have lived through too many rookie pitchers going great their first 10 outings and then totally fail when the league figures them out.

    On the bullpen I believe that Lidge will come back as closer because he did very well at the end of last year. However, if he stumbles they will move Madson back in. Not sure Lidge will do as well in the 8th or 9th so I see Contreras in the 7th, Madson 8th, Lidge 9th.

    If Contreras is back before Lidge then I think they will go Contreras 8th, Madson 9th.

    Just my opinion.

     
    • Posts: 427 Publius

      Avatar of Publius

      “(although I believe W-L should not be assigned to a single player in a team game)”

      Hi-five. I’ll relent from this thread. Pretty sure other posters have done a good job anyways of showing how far off base (haha! Puns!) the whole roulette/coin flip concept is anyways.

       
  • Posts: 0 Andrew From Waldorf

    Posts: 155 Publius

    Hope not. Ben Fran is due for a massive regression towards the mean in a positive manner. His BABIP is unsustainably low. Be patient with him. He’s due for a rebound.

     
  • Posts: 0 Andrew From Waldorf

    I mean that

    It is foolish to think something like that will equal out

    It could just as easily get worse? No?

    Or you dont undertand how things work

    Back to that board telling you what the last 30 rolls were on the roulette wheel

    They were all red so the next one has to be black huh?

    It has nothing to do with the next roll

     
  • Posts: 0 Chuck

    Publius…. I never said that Wilson Valdez was “indispensable” I fully realize that he is a utility player that’s here to fill a role. He’s not the worst guy to ever do that for the Phils and certainly he’s not the best. I get that he can be replaced. And maybe should at some point. All fine.

    But the problem I have is when you….and other people…. fail to even acknowledge the things he DOES do and HAS done. Last night he played a HUGE role, offensively and defensively, in the Phils MUCH-NEEDED win. Could/would the Phillies have wone the game had he not played or not done anything?? Maybe. But the point is that HE helped them win the game.

    If you want to point out his stats…fine….I get that. It all has merit. But at least, once in awhile, say something POSITIVE when making an argument. At least acknowledge the fact that he had a positive input into the outcome. I question your fandom when you can’t even do that.

    You mentioned that I “wanted the Phillies to play inferior players at the cost of making them more likely to win games”. What??? That couldn’t futher from the truth. Valdez was in the lineup last night because we were facing a lefty and Pete Orr is a lefty (and can’t hit them) . So it MADE SENSE to play Valdez instead.

     
  • Posts: 427 Publius

    Avatar of Publius

    “Valdez was in the lineup last night because we were facing a lefty and Pete Orr is a lefty (and can’t hit them) . So it MADE SENSE to play Valdez instead.”

    Wilson Valdez, Career vs. LHP: .217/.276/.306
    Pete Orr, Career vs. LHP: .232/.284/.290

    You were saying?

     
    • Posts: 0 Chuck

      Those numbers are basically the same. Close enough that it makes sense to just play the averages and do the righty/lefty matchup thing.

      Next????…..

       
  • Posts: 0 bacardipr05

    Can they Keep Orr an put Valdez in the minors? Im not sure how that works if not possible i still like Orr over Valdez.. I would like to see them get another Bat we have two rookies possibly taking the field. While not necessarily a bad thing i would like someone up there that at least proven even if its a rental. Im not sold on Mayberry for some reason. I have a strange feeling Raul will do just enough to be kept on the roster. Baez or Romero should be let go i doubt they will release both. Funny how Madson plugged Baez last night makes me wonder if rumors of him been let go our already circulating.

     
  • Posts: 0 bacardipr05

    Bob has point about rookie pitchers. Once teams see them an have a couple of bats an the reports starts coming in many of them unravel. Still the Phillies at some point have to start using an adding young talent. With Four Aces i think they can have a fifth rookie starter along to take some punches. Your never know we might have a bona fide guy in the mix. Of course we have Kendrick to fall back on if things go really bad. I think Blanton is expendable barring any injuries to the top four.

     
  • Posts: 0 branderson925

    Baez isn’t going anywhere. Mark my words.

     
  • Posts: 0 TheDipsy

    I like Orr and Valdez platooning while Chase is out but when Chase comes back Orr will have to go down because Valdez can play more positions. I don’t know what Ruben sees in Martinez. I don’t think he’s worth keeping at all if you have to keep him on the roster all season. I think that if Raul plays like this for another ten days and the Phils aren’t winning that he runs the risk of getting released. I think that Lidge will be released. I think that the Phils may start looking at Cuddyer since he is tailor made for the Phils and the Twins are quickly falling out of it. I think you’ll start hearing his name. I don’t think Chase can make it through the season. If he can’t, then Cuddyer can go to third and Placido to 2B and then we can hunt for ANOTHER bat. I think that JMJ and DBro should form a rough platoon in RF. I think that Ben Fran is playing like a career bench player should….like a bench player. I would spot start him around the OF if he’s not traded in a package (I think that some team out there might think of him as “average”). I think Worley should be brought up for good.

    Jimmy
    Polanco
    Utley
    Howard
    Cuddyer
    DBro/JMJ
    Victorino
    Chooch

    The Dipsy

     
  • Posts: 13 riccaboni

    Avatar of riccaboni

    @bacardipr05:

    I think Valdez would have to be DFA’ed, at which point another team could claim him off of waivers. He may also have enough service time or have it written in his contract to be able to refuse the assignment and opt for free agency, but I don’t know the exact details on Valdez.

     
 
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