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Phillies Trade Rumors Friday: Hunter Pence Edition

Posted by Pat Gallen, Fri, July 29, 2011 01:43 PM | Comments: 113
Analysis, News, Opinion, Posts, Trades

Would the Phillies be giving up too much for Pence? (PHOTO: Yahoo)

UPDATE, 5:15 pm: ESPN.com’s Buster Olney just tweeted that a source tells him the Phillies have no intention of putting Domonic Brown up for sale.

The saga continues.

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UPDATE, 4:30 pm: Michael Baumann did a little research today on how prospects pan out in the majors, here is a look:

Proof that the Baseball America people know what they’re talking about (Click on the year to see that seasons full list of top prospects):

2005:
Top 10 2005: 8 major league regulars (Mauer, Felix Hernandez, Delmon Young, Ian Stewart, Kotchman, Kazmir, Rickie Weeks, Hanley Ramirez), 1 MVP, 1 Cy Young, 4 batting titles.  Other notables: Matt Cain (13), Prince Fielder (15), Chad Billingsley (19), Jeff Niemann (20), Carlos Quentin (22), Nick Swisher (24)

2006:
Top 10 2006: 7 ML regulars (Young, Justin Upton, Stephen Drew, Liriano, Billingsley,Verlander, Matt Cain) Other notables: Fielder (11), Howie Kendrick (12), Alex Gordon (13), Ryan Zimmerman (15), Quentin (20), Markakis (21), Jon Lester (22), Chris Young the outfielder (23) and Tulo (25)

2007:

Top 10 2007: 7 regulars (Dice-K, Gordon, Young, Hughes, Cam Maybin, Longoria, Justin Upton). Lincecum at 11, Andrew McCutchen at 13, Bruce at 14, Tulo at 15, Gallardo 16, Carlos Gonzalez 18, Matt Garza 21, Clayton Kershaw 24, Billy Butler 25, Ryan Braun 26

2008:
Top 10 2008: 9 ML Regulars (Bruce, Longoria, Joba, Clay Buchholz, Rasmus, Maybin, Kershaw, Franklin Morales, David Price). Others: Wieters (12), Ellsbury (13), McCutchen (14), Wade Davis (17), Mike Moustakas (18), Elvis Andrus (19).

The point of this exercise is that the guys on these lists tend to turn into solid major leaugers, and the percentage of success rises the higher up you go. Some of the guys on these Top 25 lists don’t pan out. Andy Marte, Andy LaRoche, Fernando Martinez, Brandon Wood, and Homer Bailey all showed up more than once, it it’s not an exact science. Others, like Kazmir and Delmon Young, can flame out quickly. But if the experts say someone is a top-10 prospect, 4 out of 5 times, those prospects turn into good major leaguers (which is comforting, because they’re the goddamn experts), and more often than not, they grow into superstars.

—————————————-

1:43 pm, Friday: Wow. It looks like the Phillies are doing their best to trade Dom Brown. That’s what Jayson Stark of ESPN.com is saying.

From Stark:

…That leaves the Phillies, who have made Pence far and away their No. 1 target. But because the Phillies and Astros haven’t been able to agree on players beyond the Phillies’ initial offer, other clubs reported Friday they’re now exploring potential three-team deals to put the pieces together.

The reason for that is this: The Phillies initially offered their two best prospects, pitcher Jarred Cosart and first baseman Jonathan Singleton, and were told that wasn’t enough. The Phillies then offered to include their right fielder, Domonic Brown. But the Astros, according to one team that spoke with them, would prefer to spin Brown elsewhere for multiple prospects than take him themselves.

So the Astros don’t even like Brown and want to move him immediately for other prospects. That, plus the fact that the Phillies will also be giving up their two top organizational prospects for Pence.

My take: Hunter Pence assures you NOTHING. To pillage the farm system AND give up Domonic Brown for a good, but not great, player is mind-boggling to me. We’ve seen Domonic Brown for 88 games and 240 at-bats in his major league career. He was once named the top prospect in all of baseball. He’s showing great plate discipline. He’s also having a tough time in the field, which can change with seasoning.

And people want to send him out to pasture for a guy who has peaked at .280-ish, 25 homers, and 80 RBI. Hunter Pence is a good player – I’ll say it again – and I have nothing against the guy personally. He could be a great person, and he might be a joy to cover if he does come to Philly, but what we know is he isn’t a great ballplayer. That is WAY too much to offer for a guy who isn’t a great defender and doesn’t do any one thing great.

You cannot call Domonic Brown “untouchable” when it came to trading for Roy Halladay (Cy Young 2x), Cliff Lee (Cy Young 1x), and Roy Oswalt (NLCS MVP) and then deal him for a Top 15 outfielder in MLB. In my opinion, you can’t.

Avatar of Pat Gallen

About Pat Gallen

Pat Gallen has written 1677 articles on Phillies Nation.

Pat is Editor-in-Chief of Phillies Nation. He also covers the Phils for 97.5 FM in Philly.

 
 
  • Posts: 0 TheDipsy

    Pat – Competent defensive SS are not difficult to find when you are not looking for good O to go with it. Freddy Galvis is one. And finding an above average LFer is easy too. Remember that when you take out Ibanez, who is horrific, and substitute him with the numbers of just a solid pro, you get a real upgrade.

    The Dipsy

     
  • Avatar of The Original Chuck P

    http://www.brotherlyglove.com/2011/07/29/if-you-trade-brown-it-cant-be-for-pence/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+BrotherlyGlove+%28Brotherly+Glove%29

    Nice piece above… If you’re serious about shopping Brown, why stop at Pence? Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp? There are more, I’m sure.

     
  • Posts: 0 Andrew from Waldorf

    @ Pat you replace players
    you replaced Babe Ruth, Steve Carlton and Mike Schmidt.

    I would like to see a defensve SS who hits 8th.
    I am betting there are more than you can shake a stick at on any minor league roster.

    I am glad I could make your day as Lucille did mine.

    Still laughing.

     
    • Posts: 1435 Pat Gallen

      Avatar of Pat Gallen

      AfromW – there is no one out there available that can replace Rollins. That’s what Im saying. You named players that aren’t coming here or are still inferior to JRoll.

       
  • Posts: 0 Andrew from Waldorf

    You take Jason Bartlett and bat him 8th and dont pay him 15 million a year.

    Jason Bartlett is moot. Put any other name in there. Steve Jeltz works.

     
  • Posts: 2987 Chuck A.

    Avatar of Chuck A.

    Ok. So then offer Houston Cosart, Singleton and some other middling prospect and if they don’t want to do it just walk away. Enough already. There’s gotta be another option …

     
  • Posts: 1435 Pat Gallen

    Avatar of Pat Gallen

    Bartlett: .245 avg, 1 HR, 23 RBI, .608 OPS / 17 Errors, .960 Fielding %

    Rollins: .263 avg, 11 HR, 42 RBI, .723 OPS / 5 E, .988 Fielding %.

    No thanks.

     
  • Posts: 0 TheDipsy

    Pat – I think what AWF is saying that if you let Ibanez and Rollins go that you can replace, and perhaps exceed, the offensive AND defensive production with guys we get next year, to wit: a regular, run of the mill, offensive minded LFer (who can actually field a little) along with a good fielding, average hitting SS. Its not tough. To me.

    The Dipsy

     
  • Posts: 0 Andrew from Waldorf

    Pat no one is irreplacable.
    I like Jimmy. I dont lump him with the big piece.

    But you can get someone else for less money.
    And you can survive with a glove at SS and not a hitter.

    Not so much you in particular but now they cant trade Worley

    They cant trade Drabek. You could never trade Happ.
    Why do you guys want to keep the same players forever?

    If they traded Hamels for Bautista right now. You would all cry and I would say so be it.

     
  • Posts: 2987 Chuck A.

    Avatar of Chuck A.

    Dipsy, tell us how you REALLY feel about Raul.
    Andrew, go play with a grenade in your living room.

     
  • Posts: 0 Andrew from Waldorf

    The hoarding mentality is why you are paying Howard 16% more than Adrian Gonzalez untill 2016.

    Not nice Chuck.

     
  • Posts: 0 Lucille Jeffreys

    I have four daughters. I grew up in the projects and have been subjected to vulgarity and rudeness all my life as both a civilian and in the service. I do not condone making fun of women regarding their personal hygiene or other issues. It is part of life that we live with and often suffer with daily. I hope you understand and if you have a wife whom you respect or female children, the worse thing you can do is make fun of this important aspect of their lives. Trust me, the way I feel about ANDREW FROM WALDORF and his comments, he wants no part of me now. I need to cool off. He may be a nice fellow who was indiscreet, and I may have overreacted. But his comments would hurt many women deeply, especially nice young girls trying to make it in society as ladies and respected contributors.

     
  • Posts: 0 TheDipsy

    Untrue. Howard was resigned because he “took us” to a WS title, is an exciting player, not to mention a civic treasure. Amaro didn’t want to get into a situation where Ryan went FA, and the way Ryan was playing at the time, you could almost understand it. In 2009, losing Ryan to FA was unthinkable, and RAJ didn’t wanna give him 10y300m to keep him here. So he gave him the extension. As it turn out, it was a bad sign. I don’t think “hoarding” (buried alive!) has anything to do with it. Respectfully sir.

    P.S. Tune in for the Feminine Napkin Nostalgia Hour at 10:00 pm Sunday followed by “Cooking Grits While Holding An Assault Rifle: A History of Women in the United States Marine Corps” at 11:30.

    The Dipsy

     
  • Posts: 0 TheDipsy

    Wooo-heeee!

    The Dipsy

     
  • Posts: 2987 Chuck A.

    Avatar of Chuck A.

    Goddammit, Dipsy I’m sittin’ here eating chips and damn near choked on one of them reading that P.S.

     
  • Posts: 0 Andrew from Waldorf

    @ Lucille
    I may just stroke out now making Chucks day.

    I ask that you stay here and keep me in line.

    Do you have an opinion on Howard? Do you watch the Phillies.

    And I am just asking I mean no disrepect.

     
    • Posts: 2987 Chuck A.

      Avatar of Chuck A.

      Or the better question might be: Do YOU watch the Phillies? Or do you just opine on them cause you have nothing better to do than come on here and spout off nonsensical stuff that usually makes little sense?

       
  • Posts: 0 Colin

    I’d rather them do what they’re going to do and hang on to Brown. The reason the Astros are asking the world for Pence is that they pretty much have no face on their franchise anymore, and really don’t want to trade him unless they can get a lot (not worth it). I’d like to see them try for Carlos Quentin. He could do some serious damage hitting behind Howard and at CBP. Brown will be the starting LF (his normal position) next year, btw.

     
  • Posts: 0 Bus Stop Rat Bag

    i had no idea we had so many slow fans!!

     
  • Posts: 0 Andrew from Waldorf

    @ Dipsy 300 million???

    Ill bet my reputation right now that Prince gets less than 25 million per.

    Meaning the Phils could have had a run at him.

     
  • Posts: 0 TheDipsy

    Yeah, but I’ll bet that in 09, RAJ was thinking possibly 30mill a year. Thats what I meant.

    The Dipsy

     
  • Posts: 0 Bus Stop Rat Bag

    Look brown singleton and cosart is too much. pence is a better player than brown right now and singleton and cosart are having no effect on the tem for years still. That leaves Pence for Brown out of todays players. Pence in right makes the team a better contender one because hes more refined, a better hitter fielder, base runner, and everything else RIGHT NOW, and two, hes a right hand bat and he provides the lineup with more balance!! He gives us a true number 5 hitter that can hit 25 30 in CBP. Thats not saying Brown wont be better later!! Id like to keep Brown. He is going to be a great player! This year its all or nothing though. The Phillies have a lot of money invested in the 2011 Phillies and next year a lot of players could be gone. IT IS ALL OR NOTHING, THE FUTURE IS NOW AND THE WINDOW IS SHORT WITH THIS TEAM!! A few years at most thats assuming they resign good players in the next few offseasons which I know they will. But we cant assume, we have to win it all this year. Rollins, Polanco Utley Howard Pence Victorino Ibanez Ruiz Halladay in game 1 of the NLDS. OR, Brown may not be in the trade at all like the recent reports have just said!! But Pence makes the 2011 Phillies a better team hence a better contender. No matter how marginal some say the difference is its a better team THIS YEAR!

     
  • Posts: 64 bacardi

    Avatar of bacardi

    I say go for Ethier the heck with Pence its getting out of control.

     
  • Posts: 0 Bob myers

    I’ve been torn by how much we need to give up for a right handed bat, because I want to win it all this year.

    But I’m in the camp that believes that we’ve only seen a small shadow of what Brown will become.

    I also think somehow Ruben Amaro is going to do something, and that it will proven to be sound and sane.

    I’ll be back here to comment when we know what that is!

     
    • Posts: 1435 Pat Gallen

      Avatar of Pat Gallen

      Good move Bob! It’s getting crazy in rumor land.

       
  • Posts: 0 David

    I think the team needs a pinch hitter more than anything else. You don’t have much offense coming off the bench. They are carrying 12 pitchers now but could probably drop to 10 during the playoffs.

     
 
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