Hunter Pence and Jayson Werth
Posted by Amanda Orr, Thu, August 04, 2011 07:00 AM | Comments: 31
Free Agency, Posts, Trades
It seems like yesterday Jayson Werth sported red pinstripes. Philadelphia has many fond memories of Werth, but he has been placed in the rear view mirror. Losing Werth to free agency left many fans upset, the Phillies were without a strong right-handed bat. In addition, it left a gap in right field and questions as to whether Domonic Brown was ready for the everyday job. Brown got hurt, Ben Francisco did little with the job, and for two of the first three months of the season the Phillies got little from the corner outfield.
A drastic move at the trade deadline was necessary, even despite the Phils having the best record in baseball. Hunter Pence was acquired from the Houston Astros in exchange for top prospects Jonathan Singleton, Jarred Cosart, and two minor leaguers.
The Phillies offense had been streaky all season, but Pence’s addition has immediately improved it. Batting fifth, he enabled Ryan Howard to see more pitches in the strike zone. He initially took over the role that Jayson Werth once had.
In any sport, there are ongoing debates as to which players are superior. Whether using stats or intangibles, there are several ways to measure those similarities and differences. That leads to the question: who is the better option? Hunter Pence or Jayson Werth?
Looking at their career totals, Pence and Werth are very similar. In fact, their statistics are very close to one another. Here are Pence’s and Werth’s lines based on their 162 game average:
Pence: .290 AVG/ .338 OBP/ .478 SLG/ .817 OPS/ 24 HR/ 90 RBI/ 14 SB
Werth: .265 AVG/ .362 OBP/ .468 SLG/ .830 OPS/ 24 HR/ 82 RBI/ 17 SB
Pence hits for a higher average, but Werth will draw more walks. As far as power numbers go, there isn’t a significant difference.
Werth is coming off a career year, but has really disappointed this season. He’s hitting a lowly .224 with a .710 on-base plus slugging percentage. On the other hand, Pence is arguably having the best year of his career, hitting .305 with an .818 OPS.
Much like offensive categories, Pence and Werth are similar defensively. It’s ironic that both Pence and Werth have a .985 fielding percentage, but that stat is fluky, considering it is based on the opinion of the scorekeeper. Both are known to be above average defensive rightfielders with strong arms.
According to FanGraphs, Pence has saved 31 runs with his arm in the outfield in his career. Werth has saved 39. Again, very similar totals.
As far as the “hustle” factor goes, the award goes to Pence. Both players have above average speed, but Pence is an Utley-like baserunner … a term that is hard to describe but you know it when you see it. Pence beats out balls he shouldn’t, he goes first-to-third when most wouldn’t.
The age factor also kicks in when comparing players. Pence, 28, has youth on his side. Pence is four years younger than the 32-year-old. Pence is just entering his prime, while Werth is just about to exit his. Pending injuries, Pence has more years ahead of him than Werth does. Werth may have more experience, but he wasn’t an everday player until 2008. Pence has been a starter since the beginning.
Comparing contract situations, it’s a no-brainer that Pence is preferred. The Washington Nationals signed Werth to a ridiculous 7-year, $126 million deal. Pence is making $6.9 million this year. Pence is under team control until 2013, and will likely make about $25MM combined in 2012 and 2013. Werth will make almost $25 million during each of the final three years of his contract.
Pence and Werth are very similar offensively and defensively. Sure, Werth has struggled this season, but they are still a lot alike. However, when age and money are factored in, Pence becomes the clear favorite. When Werth filed as a free agent, Pence in pinstripes seemed unimaginable. Now, Pence is the one standing in front of Citizen Bank Park’s Out of Town Scoreboard. And I’m pretty sure that, if presented with the options, you’d rather pay Cliff Lee “Werth money” and replace Werth with an equally talented rightfielder mere months later.
Posts: 2533 Chuck A.
So I guess what this means is that after the 2013 season some stupid-ass GM will pay Pence crazy money and his Phillies career will be over.
Posted: 07:41 AM on August 4, 2011
Posts: 0 mark
actually I think at the end of this year the phils will re work pences contract and extend him…plus I dont think Pence wants to go anywhere…everyone that comes here now wants to stay and others are trying hard to come here
Posted: 10:03 AM on August 4, 2011
Posts: 8 mick
This Phillies team is even stronger with the addition of Hunter Pence!!!!
Posted: 10:01 AM on August 4, 2011
Posts: 0 David
Werth has a great arm. He was a five tool player with the Phillies and had some great year. But the Phillies were right not to try to sign him again. He would not have helpd the Phillies this year. At this point, I would take Mayberry over Werth.
Posted: 10:19 AM on August 4, 2011
Posts: 0 bart shart
Pence will surpass Werth over time. Those four years of youth over Werth mean a lot. I hope he stays healthy. Pence has great enthusiasm.
Posted: 10:35 AM on August 4, 2011
Posts: 81 PhP54
This is my thought. I liked Werth, but Pence is a much more consistent hitter, and I think a better player. In the end, he will help Ryan Howard more because when Werth was cold, you could just pitch around Howard. Now, they’ll think twice. Just my opinion.
Posted: 03:32 PM on August 4, 2011
Posts: 0 Jeff
I have always been a fan of Pence. Just a grew fit. Werth got Howard money and is not Howard. Werth was a nice small piece but that’s what he is. The Nats thought werth would be there Howard. He is not that type of player. Just a small piece.
Posted: 10:36 AM on August 4, 2011
Posts: 0 Ajay
Nice post. With this and the new post by Jeff Barnes on Crashburn Alley, I’m feeling a bit better about the Pence trade. Also: who could have predicted how bad Jayson Werth would be this year?
Posted: 10:48 AM on August 4, 2011
Posts: 2533 Chuck A.
mark….repectfully…..Three or four years ago we all didn’t think that Werth wanted to go anywhere either. Why should Hunter Pence not want to try to get whatever contract he can in a year or two.?? Not saying that he’s Werth in that regard but if the market for his services is a lot more than what the Phillies are willing to give him then he would be a fool for not consider that.
Posted: 11:13 AM on August 4, 2011
Posts: 0 Mike R.
I loved Werth’s time in Philly, but there was no way I would pay him that ridiculous of a salary. He’s a product of our lineup pure and simple. Teams would pitch around Howard to get to Werth and he was there to make them pay. Without any protection Werth is their focus, Maybe Zimmerman…then who?
Posted: 11:32 AM on August 4, 2011
Posts: 0 Kris Lehman
Its not even close. Pence is by no means a superstart, but Werth was a byproduct of having Utley, Howard and Rollins ahead of him for a few years. This year is proving that to be true. Pence did it basically on his own, in Houston, before coming here. And who cares about 2013, live in the present, 2011!
Posted: 11:35 AM on August 4, 2011
Posts: 0 sal_acid
I bet Pence will do far more than JW. Pence hits in the clutch, doesn’t have a bad attitude with press and fans and seems to just be a more solid guy.
FWIW I think the Nats are seeing the real JW, the one who isn’t surrounded by great players.
Posted: 12:15 PM on August 4, 2011
Posts: 10 LuckyNucky
You have to hate Jason Werth for doing the opposite of Cliff Lee, and love him for inking that ridiculous contract. Werth is being paid nearly 3X the amount he’s worth. Phils would have signed him for $45-40mil-6yrs. How much is too much money? What more can you do from that perspective? Who remembers Geoff Jenkins and Werth competing for RF? So, Worth has one good year to show for it… Nats are dumber every time I think about it!
Posted: 12:28 PM on August 4, 2011
Posts: 3475 Lefty
It took long time to fill the hole left by Werth, but we definitely got our guy. As Amanda points out, Pence and Werth in terms of stats are not that far apart for their careers, but Hunter is 4 years younger.
In terms of personality, they seem to be polar opposites. Only a few really know what Jayson was like off the field, but on it, he did not show the enthusiasm and energy and electricity that Hunter Pence seems to bring. These intangibles can’t be measured, but are invaluable to winning. It appears this guy is bringing a huge lift to the club.
And I love what he said to Sarge in the postgame interview after his first game.
“It was a big win, let’s go eat”
Posted: 12:55 PM on August 4, 2011
Posts: 0 Ron
I don’t understand why there is a continuing need to either complain Jayson Werth or compare him to another player…he was an important part of the success of the 2008 Phillies and then when his chance came for a big contract he got it albeit with a bad Washington team but I say this to anyone who would’nt have taken that contract…you’re either lying or just kidding yourself..(weather anyone thinks he’s being overpaid or not) he made his choice and that’s it Hunter Pence is a perfect fit for this team…but his time will come after the 2013 season and he will get paid from someone if not the Phillies and then I can read it now “Pence signs with…. for 100 million dollars for so many years and people will complain and compare about Pence too” ENOUGH already because you will take the money too.
Posted: 01:11 PM on August 4, 2011
Posts: 2533 Chuck A.
Yup. Kind of what I said at the beginning of the thread. Pence will get his payday…..some day…..and Phillies fans will then turn on him. Count on it.
Posted: 01:22 PM on August 4, 2011
Posts: 0 Mazinman
I did not mind Werth leaving to take Washington’s offer. Hell, I’d do the same if I was offered that ridiculous amount of money. What did bug me was how angry he was after we signed Lee. I did not feel upset for us but I think it was disrespectful to his National teammates to be sulking over why the Phillies could not resign him.
With that said, Pence is the better overall package right now especially when you compare their numbers this year. Even if one agrees that Werth is the better player the difference between the two is not enough to justify Werth’s price tage. Pence seems to be doing his job well and for a lot less than Werth.
One thing in mind when we compare their numbers. Werth has been playing in better offenses throughout this time period except for now. Being on better offenses probably helped out Werth’s numbers.
Posted: 01:25 PM on August 4, 2011
Posts: 3475 Lefty
I agree with everything you said, in particular the last paragraph.
I would never bash Werth for any reason. He will be remembered fondly.
He moved on, now we’ve moved on.
“Let’s go eat!”
Posted: 01:31 PM on August 4, 2011
Posts: 0 bacardipr05
For what Phils are paying Pence he is an adequate replacement. Werth might have a slight edge on his athleticism over Pence an slightly more power. I wonder if we can go to Bizzaro world an pretend like Werth never left the Phils i wonder what kind of numbers he would have put up. If he continues his struggles he might make the Howard contract look good.
Posted: 02:23 PM on August 4, 2011
Posts: 0 bacardipr05
*more than adeqaute*
Posted: 02:27 PM on August 4, 2011
Posts: 0 Jeff
Thats why I wanted Pence so bad. Jr did very well. All the fans calling up the radio and saying get us Beltran. We do not need Beltran. A. He is a rental player. B. He is playing good in a contract year. C. He has had many injuries in the past seasons. Not a great fielder anymore. Pence just fits. Just one of the guys. Not a superstar but solid bad and glove. Plays hard and wants to win badly. Love the guys. Love watching him backup Ryno. This team is just playing great ball right now. This Giants series will be huge for them. They need to start to dominate those pitchers.
Posted: 04:38 PM on August 4, 2011
Posts: 0 Matt
You compared career stats like they’re equal without mentioning Werth had 300 extra ABs, and unlike Werth Pence has proven he could hit in a bad lineup too; therefore he is much better offensively
Posted: 05:47 PM on August 4, 2011
Posts: 0 Andrew from Waldorf
Werths numbers decline outside of Philly.
JA Happs numbers decline.
Rowand etc etc name any player.
Time for people to accept that the old man does something right.
He cant manage a staff. He does stuff that makes you bang your head into the wall.
Pences numbers will go up. Most players who come here get better.
Its not normal. Some teams sign players and they go in the tank over and over again.
See Mets, New York.
Posted: 05:55 PM on August 4, 2011
Posts: 2533 Chuck A.
So am I to assume that you are finally willing to acknowledge that Charlie Manuel is a good manager??
Posted: 06:23 PM on August 4, 2011
Posts: 0 Andrew from Waldorf
Wow
Chuckles
Ive always been in his corner.
He is a hall of famer if they win the series this year.
Doc is too.
The big contract?
Not close
Posted: 06:28 PM on August 4, 2011
Posts: 0 Andrew from Waldorf
There is no manager
Living or dead that could or would do better with this team.
By the way.
As we all cried endlessly about MM
For the millionth time the old man was proven right.
He was and is needed and fills a nice role.
A rich mans Eric Bruntlett if you will.
Posted: 06:31 PM on August 4, 2011
Posts: 2533 Chuck A.
You say you’re in his corner but yet it seems like you always have to find fault with something. And it’s the way you word it…..”the old man does something right”……as if that’s the exception and not the norm.
Howard hits 500 bombs….which I think he will….and he’s in the HOF. But that’s a debate for another day.
Posted: 07:29 PM on August 4, 2011
Posts: 0 Andrew from Waldorf
Chuck my friend.
I get choked up about the old man. He is the only Phillie player management etc etc I am emotionaly invested in.
I love him in much the way you guys do the big contract.
I could never feel that way about a player.
Now enjoy tonights game. This is a big series.
And if the contract hits this series.
I pledge to not mention him again till the playoffs.
Posted: 08:08 PM on August 4, 2011
Posts: 0 Andrew from Waldorf
Chuck here is where my disconnect with the public comes from.
I have had Eric Bedard in fantasy and have kept him through his injury.
Somehow he was traded to the Red Sox and more people pick him?
Why? I immediately wanted to drop him and tonights start finishes it. Hes gone.
Not so much you but an open question to everyone.
Do you not see that Bedard has value for Seattle and has really none in the AL east?
I know he may get a win or 2 extra but the ratios will kill me.
I just cant understand people chuck.
But I am trying.
Posted: 08:25 PM on August 4, 2011
Posts: 0 anon
Plus hunter pence never slept with chase utley’s wife.
Posted: 08:49 PM on August 4, 2011
Posts: 2533 Chuck A.
First of all, don’t lump me in some group that you have labeled “you guys”.
Second, I don’t “love” the big contract. I don’t even “love” the player. But I’m glad he’s on the Phillies.
Third, he WILL hit in this series. Watch it happen.
Posted: 08:53 PM on August 4, 2011