Hunter Pence And The Placebo Effect
Posted by Jonathan Nisula, Tue, August 09, 2011 03:50 PM | Comments: 29
Analysis, Posts
When the Phillies traded for Hunter Pence, many believed the move to be just as necessary for Ryan Howard as for the right field hole. The theory goes that since Pence hits behind Howard, Howard will see better pitches, which leads to better swings and better numbers. Protection.
The idea of “protection” looks at the wrong thing though. The benefit of having Pence in the lineup is adding a solid right-handed bat to a lefty-heavy lineup–not to help Howard see better pitches.
So what explains the fact that Ryan Howard has a 1.101 OPS since Pence arrived, as opposed to a .796 OPS prior?
It could be a coincidence or a hot streak, but I think it is somewhat of a placebo effect. You see, with the media drilling the idea of “protection” into Howard’s head, Howard could be buying into it. Perception is reality, and if Howard thinks it helps him–it helps him. He could be feeling more comfortable at the plate, leading to a better, more relaxed approach. He may not feel the pressure with a good hitter added to the lineup.
Think of Pence as a sugar pill, and Howard as a person with a cold. The person takes the pill, and immediately the symptoms improve. It had nothing to do with the pill, it had to do with the perception that the pill helped. The symptoms improved because the person was under the impression that the pill would make them improve.
That’s what I think may be happening–to an extent–with Howard and Pence. Howard isn’t seeing “better pitches” or anything like that, he’s gaining confidence, which is a powerful thing for a hitter.
Pence may not be tangibly helping Howard, but there could be an underlying effect of the Phillies new 5-hole hitter.
Posts: 222 tavian
It’s the real thing with Pence, not a placebo effect. I understand your analysis and appreciate how well-written and thought provoking your article is. Nevertheless, having a decent hitter with power behind Howard does make Howard a better hitter. First, it is harder to pitch around the Big Guy and second, Pence is a solid hitter with power to all fields. Makes a big difference. It makes the hitter in the six hole better and on down the lineup. This year, Howard has had a lot of junk to swing out, frequently swinging at stuff outside the strike zone. Slow curvy lazy junk. Now, if Howard exercises a pittance more discipline, he may get a nice hard one to drive. Pitchers will not be so quick to pitch around him. Of course, some of the onus of discipline and ball contact resides with The Big Guy, as well. Let’s see what August and September brings. Personally, I expect Howard to hit at least 35bombs for the year and drive in at least 125.
Posted: 04:41 PM on August 9, 2011
Posts: 222 tavian
Note that Howard will even improve against lefties, albeit that he really struggles against them at this time. His improvement will be appreciable, but don’t expect a lot of homers.
Posted: 04:43 PM on August 9, 2011
Posts: 0 Jeff
I disagree. Howard is a mistake pitcher. Yesterday he got a mistake pitch on a slider. The pitch went across the plate and he hit it for a double. Howard takes advantage of that. Against good pitchers like Tim, and Cain they do not make mistakes. They know to get him out. He wont hit them at all. Thats most of the good pitchers in baseball.
Posted: 04:48 PM on August 9, 2011
Posts: 0 James
I’d actually like to see like some kind of graph that shows the percentage/location of pitches Howard got before pence, and after pence.
Posted: 05:04 PM on August 9, 2011
Posts: 0 bart shart
Jeff — You make a valid point about Howard being a mistake hitter. But, really, that is true of most hitters in all of baseball. Few hitters hit Lincecum and Cain on a regular basis. Few hitters hit Halladay, Lee and Hamels on a regular basis when they are clicking on all cylinders. If a pitcher could throw perfect pitches all the time, then you would see a pitcher usually throwing a no hitter, one hitter, two hitter shutout on most every appearance.
However, I will say that in defense of this article, that baseball is a very psychological game. If a decent player thinks he can hit, he probably will hit better than a decent player who does not think he can hit. Confidence at the plate against any pitcher is very important. And the placebo effect is most certainly in one’s head.
Posted: 05:20 PM on August 9, 2011
Posts: 0 Don M
Good things there are so few “good pitchers” in baseball that Howard can continually crank out 30+ HR and 100+ RBI seasons while helping us get into the playoffs each season
Posted: 05:25 PM on August 9, 2011
Posts: 0 bacardipr05
Same here Howard doesnt seem to be able to hit good pitching. I dont think Pence, Babe Ruth or anyone will help him until he learns to adapt. Although it is nice having Pence batting behind him. It might be to late to teach this old dog new tricks at this point in his career. Maybe he will adapt some but most of the top 20 pitchers/relievers already have him figured out. It isnt until someone throws a mistake or a pitch that doesnt quite break like its suppose to that he catches up to them. He seems to be guessing up there swinging at them breaking balls an hoping one of them will be a mistake as he swings. That’s my opinion of him this year i like Howard an generally dont trash him but this is what I see.
Posted: 05:24 PM on August 9, 2011
Posts: 0 Andrew from Waldorf
He has looked good because they had a nice trip to see some sub.500 teams with horrific pitching in high altitude. And a bad Pirates staff at home.
He didnt look too good vs good pitchers in SF.
Sadly for Phillies fans in the playoffs you face good pitching. And before some of the kool-aid drinkers cry about no one hitting good pitching.
The Giants managed to beat Halladay and Hamels last year with Pat Burrell and Aubrey Huff. So yes someone hits bad pitching. Or no one would ever win a world series.
The big contract just isnt that guy. Keep living in 2008 and loving the 800 foot shots up by 7 in the 8th inning. Keep thinking he would have value in a trade. You would have to pay
You couldnt get any GM in baseball to eat the contract of a first basebal with a .820 OPS at 25 million for the next 5 years.
But you guys keep loving those 30 homers and 100 rbi hitting 4th.
There is no one else who could do it I guess.
Carry on. And keep lovin and believin. Party like its 2008.
Posted: 05:41 PM on August 9, 2011
Posts: 0 Andrew from Waldorf
Dave Kingman hit 20 homers 13 times 25 homers 10 times 30 homers 7 times 35 homers 6 times and 48 homers 1 time.
He is not in the hall of fame. But he would definately hit 30 and drive in 100 for these phillies every year.
And some of you would think he is the best player in the world. And Id be here to tell you he is not.
Carry on and sorry to poison some of the love affair for the kool aid drinkers.
Posted: 05:50 PM on August 9, 2011
Posts: 0 Bob myers
I have to think that Howard knows what he’s talking about when he says he’s seeing more fastballs.
I also think Howard is the center of this franchise and without him, we’d be behind the Braves.
Posted: 06:09 PM on August 9, 2011
Posts: 2521 Chuck A.
He said it himself….”Yeah, I’m seeing more fastballs.” Not much mystery to that.
Posted: 06:30 PM on August 9, 2011
Posts: 1 CDOJr1961
PLACEBO?
Obtain a player hitting over .300 on a team with the worst record in MLB. Put him in the batting order of a team with the best record in MLB.
The teams hot streak after that move is just a coincidence?
I just signed up for Phillies Nation. I am ready to quit after that insult to the intelligence of long time Phillies fans.
They are now the HOTTEST team in MLB! PLACEBO?!?!?!?
Posted: 06:40 PM on August 9, 2011
Posts: 2521 Chuck A.
Don’t quit. We’ve actually got a good group here. Lot’s of great minds. But there are some boneheaded articles….that’s for sure. The key is to respond….like you did…..and be part of the ongoing debate.
Yeah….”placebo”. That’s actually pretty funny.
Posted: 06:54 PM on August 9, 2011
Posts: 59 Jonathan Nisula
Surely you don’t expect the Phillies to go 9-1 in every 10 game stretch.
And placebo is the effect on Ryan Howard, not the entire team
Posted: 07:23 PM on August 9, 2011
Posts: 0 bart shart
Friends and fellow bloggers —– Look at the stats. You can complain all you want about Howard, but so far in his career his numbers are HALL OF FAME First Ballot. Even if he dips to average 30 to 35 homers for the rest of his career, and 100 to 110 RBI’s, he will be among the enshrined.
Do I love Howard ? No I do not, but I am not a hater. Sometimes he gives me anxiety, sometimes he thrills me with his power. He is what he is and like it or not we are going to have him in red pinstripes for at least five more years. Enjoy those majestic homers and learn to cope with those 190 Ks a year. We must cope or go crazy. I believe we will miss BIG BROWN when he is gone.
Posted: 07:13 PM on August 9, 2011
Posts: 0 Joe Redden
I don’t really understand why everyone keeps calling the Phillies a lefty heavy lineup. Let’s go through it.
Catcher – Ruiz – Bats Right
1st Base – Howard – Bats Left
2nd Base – Utley – Bats Left
Shortstop – Rollins – Switch Hitter
3rd Base – Polanco – Bats Right
Left Field – Ibanez – Bats Left
Center Field – Victorino – Switch Hitter
Left Field – Brown – Bats Left
Now unless my math is bad, which is entirely possible, that means the Phils have 4 left handed batters, 2 right handed batters, and 2 switch hitters that can be right handed if needed. So that would be about as balanced as you can get with 4 righties and 4 lefties.
I’m all for Hunter Pence, but let’s be real. We wanted him because he was a playmaker. Let’s stop with all this “Phillies are a left handed heavy lineup” crap.
Posted: 07:13 PM on August 9, 2011
Posts: 59 Jonathan Nisula
“Lefty-heavy” isn’t about the amount of lefties, it’s about WHO they are and where they hit. Numbers 3 and 4 are lefties, along with Ibanez near the bottom and the two switch hitters near the top. It is a benefit of adding Pence to offset that.
But you’re right, that’s not the biggest reason we all liked the Pence deal. It’s because he’s freakin’ Hunter Pence
Posted: 07:29 PM on August 9, 2011
Posts: 0 Mike N
Here’s a nice discussion of the topic of Howard and “protection”:
http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/phillies_zone/126773963.html
Posted: 07:59 PM on August 9, 2011
Posts: 2521 Chuck A.
Why do people have to overthink this stuff all the time? Pence…in the 5 hole….helps to protect Howard. He’s seeing better pitches and he said so himself. And he helps to balance the lineup by splitting up the lefties. That’s it. Nothing more to it. No coincidence. So let’s all just try to enjoy the benefit of it as we witness one of the best….if not THE best ….Phillies team march to the postseason and, hopefully, capture another WFC.
Posted: 08:01 PM on August 9, 2011
Posts: 0 bart shart
Chuck, this blog gives us an opportunity to analyze stuff we love and discuss it among ourselves. Sometimes I just like to see what I’ve said in print and share it with my grandchildren so they don’t think I’m senile. Or…maybe after reading my stuff, they will think I am senile after all. As well as full of crap.
Posted: 08:15 PM on August 9, 2011
Posts: 3461 Lefty
Let me start by saying despite what you think of this comment, I am not a hater. I love these Phillies and everyone on the team. I drink the kool-aid every day, and love it.
But I have eyes, and despite my age, can still process what I see. And I see untapped potential, and think it’s a terrible thing to waste.
So, is there a sugar pill/placebo we can give Ryan Howard to take a walk now and then? Will protection do that? When you bat fourth, you frequently come up first in an inning. When the count goes to 3-0, if you play the game right, you make the pitcher walk you or throw you a meat ball. If you play the game right, you don’t need to wait for a mistake, you force the mistake. Or if you take the walk, then when Pence hits a double, you don’t get an RBI he does. But you are a better teammate, helping your team win.
Or, you could just keep wildly swinging at every piece of garbage they throw you, then you might hit a majestic home run 35 times a season in 650 AB’s, and you will strike out 150 times. So instead of scoring, you have Pence on second, no one gets an RBI, and one out.
Hall of Fame? He has 277 HR’s, if he plays until he’s 37-@35 per season, he’ll have around 450, so yeah, it’s possible.
But if he plays the game right, his chances increase incrementally. If he takes walks forcing the “good pitching” to actually have to work pitching to him, which in turn raises his average, and OBP, and gives him more slugging opportunities in the process, which leads to his team winning 2-3 more championships, -well now, then he’s in on the first ballot. There- I just wrote the prescription, someone please get him these sugar pills ASAP.
Posted: 08:20 PM on August 9, 2011
Posts: 0 bart shart
Good points Lefty. You should write a column for Phillies Nation — Passion, A Voice of Reason, Even tempered, Talented. All traits of an excellent columnist.
Posted: 08:23 PM on August 9, 2011
Posts: 3461 Lefty
Thank you Bart, every now and then I have a lucid moment. :)
Posted: 08:37 PM on August 9, 2011
Posts: 0 TheDipsy
If a pitcher is scared of the guy behind you, he will not wanna put YOU on and watch you turn into an RBI. So he’s gotta try and get you out and not try and pitch around you and give you slop. He’s gotta throw at least one real pitch an AB. Howard, as explained by himself, is starting to see some fastballs. Howard is a fastball hitter.
Thank you for the thorough explanation of the “Placebo Effect”, though.
The Dipsy
Posted: 08:49 PM on August 9, 2011
Posts: 0 bart shart
When Polanco comes back healty, we may have another phenomena — we’ll call it
THE PLACIDO EFFECT. Sorry, I could not help it.
Posted: 09:03 PM on August 9, 2011
Posts: 0 joey
The PROBLEM we have is with the Giant and Ryan Howard. Versus Timmy L and Matt cain he is AWFUL. It evidence is CLEAR … Ryan howards Inabaility toi even out the ball in play vs Timmy L and Cain is the reason WHY we lose so many games versus those two pitchers.
Look . MOST of the SF Philly games are usually something like 2-1 or 3-2 etc. In the 4th game game vs SF — AUG 7– Howard left 6 men on base and struck out 4 times. in the last 2 games in the JULY series the same thing. This is the kiss of death when you are trying to ” small ball” and get a run across the plate.
In the 4 games last week vs SF…. When Shane or Chase or Jimmy are on 1st or 2b and you have to get them to 3rd B to score one run…. on say a Sac fly or Bunt… Howard’s constant Striking essentially gives SF a ” FREE OUT” .
That is WHY we cannot get that lead runner with 1 or 0 outs to score against SF…. and why we lose so many games vs SF by 1 run
Posted: 09:36 AM on August 10, 2011
Posts: 0 albert ramirez
when roy o went to philly, I started rooting for them in the playoffs, when Lance went to the Yankees I started hating Astros management, when Hunter, was traded to Philly I officially became a Phiily fan and hate my beloved team the Astros. When Ed Wade gets fired I will return to the fold of astros faithful, but until then, send Hunter back home or win the Worlds Series, don’t waste his talent damn it!!!!!
Posted: 02:33 PM on August 10, 2011
Posts: 0 LC
Must have been a slow day for baseball news. This article is inane, pointless, a total waste of time. Can’t believe this guy gets paid to write such nonsense. A “placebo”???? Give me a break. I’m tired of reading the same old “cliches”, as if they mean something. What nonsense.
Posted: 03:05 PM on August 10, 2011
Posts: 12 xxLouA
agree with Joe R. re: all lefties or heavy lefties….as balanced as could be. Pence is good at what he does and one thing for sure, IMO is that he sure helps Ryan out even tho it didn’t look like it in LA, (How many SOs???) OMG!!!! sometimes, I wonder when he does that….
WHEN will it stop? Probably never but hoping!!!
Posted: 03:03 PM on August 11, 2011