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NL Trade Deadline Grades

Posted by Corey Seidman, Mon, August 01, 2011 03:59 PM | Comments: 21
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The trade deadline tends to be the most exciting time of the year. As with, say, the NFL Draft, each team goes into the period with clear intentions, and even those with poorly constructed rosters are offered hope of improvement.

The best teams buy, the worst teams sell, the ones in the middle decide how to exit baseball purgatory. The Rockies decided to move from mediocre to bad by trading Ubaldo Jimenez and picking up arms for the future. The Blue Jays chose to make high impact moves, disregarding their current position in the standings while attempting to put together the best possible roster.

In the National League, the moves made by teams other than the Phillies were just as important as the Hunter Pence deal itself. Why? Because the rest of the NL has faced an uphill battle since late-April, and many teams were in need of an external boost to strengthen their World Series odds.

With that, let’s take a look at how each contender fared…

Atlanta Braves: A

The Braves get a clear A for addressing their biggest need – a leadoff hitting centerfielder – while giving up very little. All along, Atlanta tried to upgrade its offense while holding on to top pitching prospects Julio Teheran, Arodys Vizcaino, Mike Minor and Randall Delgado. Somehow, some way Frank Wren’s hard-line stance worked, as the best prospect the Braves traded for Bourn is probably No. 8 on their list.

The addition of Bourn makes the Braves unquestionably better, and he is a more logical fit for them than Pence or Carlos Quentin or any number of players on the trading block. It was Bourn-to-the-Braves that I feared most a month ago, and that’s exactly what happened.

Philadelphia Phillies: B+

Obtaining Hunter Pence is enough for an A, as it filled what was essentially the only remaining need, but the grade is lowered for the loss of Jonathan Singleton. Both teams took a risk here – the Phillies that their top pitching and hitting prospects might one day produce in a big way for another team, and the Astros for centering a deal around two players in Single-A.

Jarred Cosart won’t be missed a ton by the Phillies faithful … it is very unlikely that he turns into a legitimate No. 1 starter, and when you have a multitude of young arms in the farm system, you trade a Cosart for a Pence every single time. I am heavily in favor of what Ruben Amaro decided to do and applaud him for selling high on two guys whose value might never surpass what it was in July 2011. The B+ is given out of a fear that Singleton one day hits .292/.380/.510 for the Astros with 27 homers.

Cincinnati Reds: B

It might be surprising to see the Reds ranked third here, but Waly Jocketty should be commended for not giving up a ton for Ubaldo Jimenez or selling off a piece like Ramon Hernandez. The Reds are still alive in the NL Central – granted, not by much, but their +40 run differential tells you more about the team than the 53-55 record. The Pirates are two games better despite being outscored by four runs, and the Brewers are 6.5 ahead while maintaining an ugly +5 mark. The Reds can still win this thing with their current roster. The fanbase might not be thrilled with a quiet deadline, but sometimes a rice cake is better than a chocolate cake.

Milwaukee Brewers: B-

They have no farm system left due to trades for Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum. They are going for broke in 2011 because Prince Fielder will walk after the season. Acquiring Francisco Rodriguez was important, even more so for the fact that the Brewers did so weeks before every other team started trading.

Picking up Felipe Lopez and Jerry Hairston, Jr. probably wasn’t part of the initial plan, but an injury to Rickie Weeks changed things. The only fortunate part of Weeks’ ankle injury (out 2-6 weeks) is that occurred days before the deadline, not days after.

St. Louis Cardinals: C-

I’ll never be on board with trading an already good, potentially very good centerfielder under team control until 2015 for a rental starting pitcher and an eighth inning reliever. Likee the Rafael Furcal move, though.

Arizona Diamondbacks: C-

They needed to address the shortstop gap left by Stephen Drew‘s season-ending injury, but didn’t. Willie Bloomquist is not a starting shortstop for a team fighting to win its division.

Jason Marquis was a nice move and Brad Ziegler will help, but not at the expense of Brandon Allen. That was a weird move.

San Francisco Giants: D

They needed to upgrade the game’s 27th best offense, but it only makes sense to trade your best pitching prospect for a rental bat if you plan to re-sign that rental bat. If the Phillies traded Cosart straight up for Beltran I’d love the acquired player, but would hate the move.

Bringing in Jeff Keppinger was shrewd, but then trading a potential starting outfielder, Thomas Neal, to Cleveland for Orlando Freaking Cabrera was ludicrous. Neal has hit .292/.372/.467 in five minor league seasons and has moved swiftly from Rookie ball to Triple-A by the age of 23. And Orlando Cabrera is a poor hitter and defender. And they already had Miguel Tejada. And Brandon Crawford. And Cabrera is probably worse overall than both.

But ok.

Pittsburgh Pirates: F

They needed to make moves weeks ago. On July 17, the Bucs were 49-44, 0.5 games out of first place and about to embark upon a season-defining stretch of thirteen games against the Reds, Cardinals, Braves and Phillies. A move needed to be made then.

Instead, the Bucs waited until July 30 and 31 to trade for two mediocre, aging bats. They went 5-8 during that stretch and got zero help from outside sources.

This was really, really bad. The Pirates needed to make moves for two reasons: 1) to improve a team that had overachieved by winning one-run games and getting unsustainable production with two outs and men in scoring position, and 2) to show the fanbase that they were willing to finally try to win.

In the end, bringing in Derrek Lee and Ryan Ludwick felt more like the second reason than the first, and at 4.5 games behind two markedly better teams, respected GM Neal Huntingdon completely blew it. If you were gonna’ wait until the Saturday and Sunday of the trade deadline, selling made more sense. Huntingdon is probably kicking himself.

 
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  • Posts: 1637 Chuck A.

    Yeah and what’s even more sad about the Pirates deal is that Derrick Lee couldn’t make it from New York to Philly for yesterday’s game. Seriously????

     
  • Posts: 0 Robin Roberts

    Trading singleton away for pence was an A+ move. He can only play first base and was going nowhere in this organization.

     
  • Posts: 0 Andrew from Waldorf

    Excellent job Corey. Keep up the good work.
    The Giants did what they had to do.
    The Phillies will have to beat the man to be the man.

     
  • Posts: 113 therookie300

    I don’t think the Pirates moves are that bad. They brought in some veteran help to maybe give them a shot this year. Realistically they were never going to win this division anyway this year. Don’t mortgage the future when your team isn’t really ready to win yet. The Brewers really had no choice in the matter. They are a team that is ready to win now and they can take those chances, the Pirates can’t.

     
    • Posts: 304 Corey Seidman

      The issue with the Pirates is that if you were going to bring in “veteran help”, you do it BEFORE the tough stretch of games. What good are mediocre parts like Ludwick and Lee after you go 5-8 and fall from 0.5 to 4.5 games out?

       
      • Posts: 113 therookie300

        You are right about the timing of the moves. They should have made at least one before this stretch of games.

         
  • Posts: 0 Andrew from Waldorf

    The Pirates havent contended in 20 years.
    They had to make some moves.

    They are pretty sad little moves. But I refuse to make fun.

    I hope they make the playoffs.

     
  • Posts: 0 Jeff

    A+ for the phillies. D- for this article. Now go work ur 9-5 job

     
  • Posts: 0 Mazinman

    Interesting article. I feel that the only way to really get a feel for how good a deal was is to look at a wide variety of different opinions. One thing that has had me wondering is the Braves. On the surface, I agree with you. Bourn seemed to be the best possible move for them to make. What makes me wonder was why did the Braves treat him as their fourth choice when their use to them was so clear? Before eventually getting Bourn (in what is a good deal) they went for overall better bats in Beltran, Pence, and Quentin. Are they that worried about their overall defense? In fact, this strategy seemed to have backfired on them. Lets remember that the talk of trading Pence was relatively low until the Braves jumped in and triggered a bidding war. Its possible that if they Braves had not done so there might not have been a trade. Very interesting what if.

     
  • Im not a fan of the Bourn deal… They still don’t have anyone to knock him in. He’s a good defensive player and a base stealer but that’s about it.

     
    • Posts: 1353 Brooks

      OCP – Reality check my friend:
      McCann
      Freeman
      Jones (Injured but a HOF’er)
      Heyward (Sophmore slump, still feared though)
      Uggla (as fairy tale as this recent streak of his is, he will still wind up with 30/100)

      Bourn should fit in nicely.

      I don’t think I would rate the Braves moves as highly as getting Pence for unproven talent as the Phils did but, still a good move.

       
      • Brooks – you kind of made my point. If there weren’t questions marks at the 3, 4 and 5 spots, then Bourn and his ridiculously high OBP would be very valuable BUT you can’t ignore the facts… McCann and Jones are injured, Heyward is slumping, Uggla is hitting .212 (no way he gets 100 RBI… not a chance) and Freeman is still a rookie. Further (and please don’t take this wrong way- Bourn is the better player), I’m not sure how much better off the Braves are with Bourn than they were with Jordan Schafer. Schafer is a decent base stealer (15 compared to Bourn’s 39 in less than half as many at bats), a very good defender (better defensive numbers than Bourn this year… small sample but he’s good, none the less) and at 24 years old, he was the 25th prospect in all of baseball a couple of years ago. Neither guy hits home runs. To me, they would have been better off figuring out a way to make sure that they wouldn’t have to rely on Chipper Jones every day,,, I think that they would have been better off with Hunter Pence but we got him. Bourn makes them better but, in terms of addressing team needs, they still have big question marks in the heart of their lineup.

         
  • Also- Derrek Lee and Ludwick are decent moves for a team that needs veteran character guys with upside. They don’t have the deep pockets that their competitors do but Lee has been hot and Ludwick brings a lot to the table. Lee hit 2 HRs tonight… I think he’s going to finish strong. A week or two doesn’t matter- there’s a lot of baseball left to be played.

     
    • Posts: 0 Mazinman

      I can agree with this. . I think they proved they are a contender which is why their GM made the moves. That division is still up for grabs.

       
  • Posts: 0 phil

    Ubaldo went to the Indians…

     
    • Posts: 304 Corey Seidman

      This was an article about NL contenders. The Indians are in the AL Central.

       
  • Posts: 304 Corey Seidman

    I think you misread what I wrote. I was referring to two separate deals, Ubaldo to the Indians and Rasmus to the Blue Jays. The paragraph was designed to show that of two mediocre teams, the Rockies sold (Ubaldo) while the Blue Jays bought (Rasmus.)

     
  • Posts: 1353 Brooks

    BTW – I have no idea what Ubaldo was smoking last year in the first half – but I would be surprised if he showed any semblence of that magical first 3 months of 2010.

     
  • Posts: 0 ron howard

    Respectfully would have to differ with you on the Braves v. the Phillies.

    Pence is very consistent–so consistent that you can pretty much pencil in his production and defense in every year. Second, if anything, Pence at age 27/28 is now peaking. Third, Pence has the best range, runs saved and best arm of any right fielder in baseball over the past three years and started out as a rookie CF in 2007–he only moved to RF so Bourn could play CF–and thus he is a better RF even than Werth was. Fourth, he has great speed and great baseball instincts. Fifth, he is only 27/28 and only making @7 million a year, and wont be a free agent for three more years, so he’s really a bargain compared to what Werth was asking and eventually got, $22 million.

    Compared to Dom Brown, it’s not even close. Pence produces VORPs, Runs Created and Defensive Runs saved way over Brown, and way over league average. Brown by contrast was producing league average offense and league average defense. Brown (and Francisco) are ok starters for a second division club, but not for a club that is chasing the World Series. Pence on the other hand is a winning ballplayer and went right to work winning. Immediately pitchers are beginning to pitch to Howard and Ibanez again, and Pence also knows to take a walk and how to score from second on small ball. In short, Pence knows how to do the small little things that matter in pennant races.

    Turning briefly to Atlanta and the Bourn trade, other than leading the league in stolen bases and striking out about 125 times a year, it’s hard to see what Bourn brings to the table other than speed and defense. He’s not really a good leadoff man because he doesn’t walk a lot nor does he really hit for a high average. In short, he presents the Jimmy Rollins problem, except he has no power at all, just the strikeouts and the bad BA and OBA.

    Bourn is a good player of sorts, but he’s about a “B” acquisition–he’s a second level leadoff player–and he’s been inconsistent for three seasons–whereas Pence is a solid “A” acquisition. The grades of these trades should be reversed.

     
  • Posts: 0 Henrietta

    You have the monopoly on useful information—aren’t moonpolies illegal? ;)

     
 
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