Phillies Nation

I can. It’s that time of year again. The weather is getting a little colder, the days are getting shorter, and the feeling of Fall is in the air. It’s a time when the MLB playoff races heat up and every game means that much more. For the Phillies, it means another Fall of great baseball and good times. But why do things feel different this year?

Here’s why:  On September 5 of last year, the Phillies were still a game back of the Braves in the division were in a group of five teams (Cincinnati, Atlanta, San Diego, San Francisco were the others) all within 4.5 games of each other. They lead the Wild Card race by just 3 games over the Giants. Their pitching and defense was decent overall, as the 549 runs they had given up was good for 6th in the NL. They were 5th in runs scored and run differential. At this point last year, the Phils were simply an above average team right in the middle of the playoff races fighting for a spot. They had 78 wins. Guess how many they had on September 5, 2009? 77. 2008? 76. In the last three years, the Phillies had 76, 77, and 78 wins on September 5. And in those three years the Phillies reached the World Series twice and NLCS once.

Fast forward to September 5, 2011. The Phillies have eighty-friggin’-eight wins and a 7.5 game lead in the division. 88 wins puts them on pace for about 105–which would be four more than the franchise record. They have the best record in not only the NL, but in all of baseball by four games. It’s not just about the win-loss column, either.

What’s really eye-popping is the 449 runs the Phillies have allowed so far. It’s easily the best in all of baseball–and 47 ahead of the next closest team, the Giants. Four hundred and forty-nine runs against is a whopping 100 less than the they had given up at this point last year. One hundred. They could lose tonight’s game while giving up 99 runs–which isn’t really out of the question if they bring Danys Baez back– and would still have given up less runs than they did last year at this point.

As for the division race, it probably won’t be a tight one, and most certainly won’t come down to the final days of the season. According to CoolStandings.com, the Phils have a 98.7% chance of winning the NL East. On September 5 of last year, their chances were significantly less at 29.3%. Obviously take those numbers with a grain of salt, but I think the Phillies are almost a lock to win the division at this point, barring an unlikely collapse. They should be able to clinch well before the last series with the Braves, which will give them time to rest key players and set up the playoff rotation.

For the Phillies to match their win total of 97 of last year, they’d have to win just nine of the remaining 26 games (a .346 winning %). Their remaining opponents have a combined winning percentage of just .493 as well. The teams and how many times the Phillies play them are as follows: Braves (6), Brewers (4), Cardinals (4), Mets (3), Nationals (4), Marlins (2) and Astros (3). Only the Braves, Brewers and Cardinals are above .500, which means that almost half (12) of the remaining games will be against sub-.500 teams.

The Phillies have a combined record of 40-28 against those seven teams. If they keep that pace up (.588 winning %), they would win around 15-16 out of the 26. That would easily be more than last year’s 97. Heck, even if they win just 13 of the 26 they would have four more than last year and still tie the franchise record for wins.

In other words, it is almost a foregone conclusion that the 2011 Phillies will best the 2010 and 2009 clubs, and maybe even the 2008 World Series Champion Phillies.

There’s an overwhelming confidence that Phillies fans haven’t felt in a verrrry long time. For the first time during this current run of making the playoffs every year, we not only expect the Phillies to make the playoffs (which is a real lock), but we expect them to go deep in the playoffs. Last year they had the best record in baseball, but  only got to that point by winning 49 of the last 68 games. There were times when there was serious doubt about the Phils’ chances. Remember “the great slump” last year? The worst stretch was from May 22 to June 15. They went 6-15, scoring less than two and a half runs per game while giving up five per game. At the end of that stretch, they sat in third place.

It got worse just after the All-Star Break. They had just finished the first half with a sweep of the Reds that trimmed the deficit in the division to 4.5 games. They then lost six of the first seven games in the 2nd half and found themselves a full seven games back of the Braves.

I don’t know about you, but at that point I had some doubts that the Phillies would win the division, especially with their inconsistent offense. That feeling never presented itself this year. The Phillies lead the East every day this season, save for a single day in April where they were a half game out.

And that’s the reason why it’s so different this year. No doubts, no pressing issues, just wins. And lots of them. “We got this” is a phrase that I’ve jokingly used over the last few years when I was confident in the Phils’ playoff chances. This year, “We got this” is an understatement. The sheer dominance of the 2011 Phillies is creating a buzz in Philadelphia that hasn’t been matched since the 2004 Eagles.

And that’s what I mean when I ask “Can you feel it?” It’s a great feeling that we can almost touch. And the best part? As Roy Halladay would say: It’s only going to get funner.