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NLDS Game 3: Phillies (1-1) at Cardinals (1-1)

Posted by Michael Baumann, Tue, October 04, 2011 04:00 PM | Comments: 101
2011 Gameday, Analysis, Posts

Philadelphia Phillies (1-1) at St. Louis Cardinals (1-1)

Jaime Garcia, LHP vs. Cole Hamels, LHP

Time: 5:07 p.m., Busch Stadium
TV: TBS
Weather: Cloudy, 50
Media: Twitter and Facebook

Not that we’re recommending letting the Cardinals out to a 3-0 lead in the first, but both the Phillies (in Game 1) and Cards (in Game 2) spotted their opponents a 3-0 first-inning lead and came back to win. Just because something has happened a couple times in the past doesn’t make it likely to happen in the future.

That’s the message tonight for the Phillies, who face 25-year-old lefty Jaime Garcia. Garcia, in case you haven’t heard, is 2-1 with a career 1.20 ERA in six appearances and 30 innings pitched against the Phillies. Don’t get me wrong–Garcia is an excellent pitcher whose 143 ERA+ in 163 innings last year would have gotten him some serious Rookie of the Year love in any season that didn’t involve Jason Heyward and Buster Posey. But for all the fear that Garcia’s induced over recent days, it’s not time to shut down the carnival and unpack your Flyers gear just yet: remember, it’s still only 30 innings.

Besides, Cole Hamels is on the mound tonight.

While the Cardinals are lucky to be tied and coming home, remember that the Phillies, with Roy Halladay slated to pitch a potential Game 5 at home, would be at a great advantage with a split in St. Louis. Remember, also, that while the Cardinals got 13 hits off of Cliff Lee and Friends on Sunday, many of them were bleeders and bloopers (or note the Redbirds’ .542 BABIP or Cliff Lee’s 1.03 FIP in Game 2, for those of you to whom those numbers make more sense).

The Phillies will make one lineup change from Game 2, inserting John Mayberry for Raul Ibanez. Mayberry has a .953 OPS this season against lefties, and Ibanez has a .585 OPS against lefties, so platooning them is pretty self-evidently a smart move. The Rollins-Utley-Pence-Howard-Victorino top five will remain, which has the advantage of getting Pence’s hot bat further up in the lineup, getting Chase Utley (on balance, the team’s best on-base guy) more plate appearances, and following up each of the team’s big left-handed bats (Utley and Howard) with a guy who absolutely murders lefties (Pence and Victorino).

This isn’t quite a must-win game for the Phillies, but much hangs in the balance. You might want to wear gloves for this one to avoid biting your fingernails off completely.

Lineup: Rollins SS, Utley 2B, Pence RF, Howard 1B, Victorino CF, Mayberry Jr. LF, Polanco 3B, Ruiz C, Hamels P

Victory Lager

Your gameday beer: Negra Modelo

Jaime Garcia is from Mexico. Cole Hamels is from San Diego, which is as physically close as you can get to Mexico without going through customs. Negra Modelo is from Mexico. ‘Nuff said.

GO PHILLIES!

Avatar of Michael Baumann

About Michael Baumann

Michael Baumann has written 229 articles on Phillies Nation.

Michael is a graduate student at Temple University who lost his childlike innocence when, at the age of 6, his dad let him stay up for the end of Game 6 of the 1993 World Series. Unsettled by the Phillies' recent success, he has threatened over the years to leave the team he loves if they don't start losing again, but has so far been unable to follow through. Michael spent 4 years as an undercover agent in Braves territory at the University of South Carolina, where he covered football and soccer for The Daily Gamecock before moving back up north. He began writing for The Phrontiersman in June 2009 before moving to Phillies Nation in January 2010.

 
 
  • Posts: 356 Morris Buttermaker

    Avatar of Morris Buttermaker

    Ok guys, we got a game with the Cardinals tonight. And that only means one thing. Bad news for the Cardinals!

     
  • Posts: 356 Morris Buttermaker

    Avatar of Morris Buttermaker
     
  • Posts: 0 Manny

    At this rate, Garcia will be in the game for a longggg time. Hopefully we can figure him out when our guys see him for a second and third time.

     
  • Posts: 0 Ryan H

    the way to beat garcia is to work him and get rid of him. you don’t beat him, you beat the bullpen. problem is, the shadows are wreaking havoc on hitters and garcia is firing strikes.

     
  • Posts: 0 Ryan H

    garcia firing nothing but strikes while hamels seems to be nibbling. he needs to throw more strikes . but he does look good

     
  • Posts: 0 Ryan H

    if cole doesn’t start throwing up some quicker innings, I’m afraid we might see vance worley on the mound in the 6th inning

     
  • Posts: 356 Morris Buttermaker

    Avatar of Morris Buttermaker

    Hamels is pitching scared. He’s afraid to make a mistake.

     
  • Posts: 356 Morris Buttermaker

    Avatar of Morris Buttermaker

    The only way Tony Larussa could have a worse hairpiece would be if it had a chin strap and price tag on it,.

     
  • Posts: 356 Morris Buttermaker

    Avatar of Morris Buttermaker

    Ok, here’s our inning. Let’s make it happen;

     
  • Posts: 0 Ryan H

    woah! I’m usually a fan of larger strike zones but that called 3rd on howard was not a strike

     
  • Posts: 356 Morris Buttermaker

    Avatar of Morris Buttermaker

    Or maybe not

    Looks like another free hand jobs in the dugout game. All of the Phillies hitters seem to be in a hurry to get back there.

     
  • Posts: 0 Manny

    It’s the hitters. Howard at least is taking some pitches, but everybody else seems like they’re in a mad rush to swing the freaking bat. No patience whatsoever.

     
    • Posts: 0 Ryan H

      well honestly, garcia is throwing everything right down the middle. he’s right there every time. right in the zone. not much up or down or in or out from him

       
  • Posts: 0 Ryan H

    an out on one pitch! that’s what i’m talking about. more of that please

     
  • Posts: 1951 Brooks

    Avatar of Brooks

    Cole is throwing a ton of pitches and the Phils are not making Garcia work at all. Need runs, everything is better with runs…

     
  • Posts: 0 Craig

    This is excruciating

     
  • Posts: 2542 Chuck A.

    Avatar of Chuck A.

    That ball off the bat of Ruiz was the hardest hit ball all day.

     
  • Posts: 356 Morris Buttermaker

    Avatar of Morris Buttermaker

    This is the most stressed out I’ve been all year.

    I’ve always said that the best Philadelphia fans are when the team plays like crap all game, and then comes back to win. Because then you get to scream and curse all game, and then the teams wins. I have that feeling about this game.

    Phils are playing terrible. Cardinals are playing well. The game is tied.

     
    • Posts: 2542 Chuck A.

      Avatar of Chuck A.

      Yeah, this ain’t a whole lot of fun.

       
  • Posts: 0 joey

    13 scorless innings … cole over 80 pitches thru 5 innings

     
    • Posts: 0 Sticky

      Enilhgetinng the world, one helpful article at a time.

       
    • Posts: 0 deiblk

      rdf1b5 phabwrzltjou

       
    • Posts: 0 igwydd

      DKg8Wo prkgxtdllqty

       
  • Posts: 0 Ryan H

    just realized now that hamels not getting the bunt down last time means we lost a run. ruiz coulda scored from 2nd with two outs on j-rolls hit to center. damn. can’t blow chances like that. its the little things that got this team a ring in 08

     
  • Posts: 0 Mostone

    I am a big ball of anxiety.

     
  • Posts: 0 bacardipr05

    Want to watch but cant anxiety levels high. They should of worked the count on this guy the first time around not swung much. Then second time they can take their swings this way we would of least had his pitch count a little higher.

     
  • Posts: 0 Jeff

    Howard sucks

     
    • Posts: 0 St Louis Mike

      I agree my friend. Go Cardinals!!!!!!!!!!

       
  • Posts: 0 Ryan H

    if hamels gives up a hit here, i’m blaming the squirrel

     
    • Posts: 0 Ryan H

      damn squirrel!!!!

       
  • Posts: 356 Morris Buttermaker

    Avatar of Morris Buttermaker

    I’m so stressed out that the Jimmy Falloon talks to a baby is commercial is annoying me. The commercial with an incredibly unfunny “:comedian” repeating the same joke over and over is actually annoying. Hard to believe.

     
  • Posts: 1951 Brooks

    Avatar of Brooks

    Cole’s velocity is spot on, too much work though

     
  • Posts: 1951 Brooks

    Avatar of Brooks

    Pretty sure that Cole will not last all that much longer, who comes out after him? Worley?

     
  • Posts: 0 Ryan H

    my god my heart can’t take this anymore. i need to stop watching sports all together.

     
  • Posts: 356 Morris Buttermaker

    Avatar of Morris Buttermaker

    Ok everybody. Time to change the mojo. Go change your socks/shirt/underwear/ pants. Go into a different room and listen on the radio. Do something. I’m putting on the shirt I wore on Saturday.

     
  • Posts: 0 joey

    On how many other teams do they walk the 3rd hitter to get to the clean up hitter in the PLAYOFFS?

    I’m not a Howard hater but that speaks volumes…..

     
    • Posts: 0 Ryan H

      well. in todays case pence is the one guy you can’t let beat you if you’re the cards. that’s a no brainer. ya gotta go left left there regardless of who’s the lefty.

       
  • Posts: 0 Ryan H

    let’s see how this guy pitches with a leadoff man on base..

    all right shane’s on second!!!! gotta get him in. get em over get em in here. if shane doesn’t score he, we deserve to lose

     
  • Posts: 0 bostonkate

    My heart can’t take this anymore.

    The Cards made Cole work for it. Why, why, WHY aren’t the phils doing the same for garcia??

     
  • Posts: 356 Morris Buttermaker

    Avatar of Morris Buttermaker

    Ben Sack of Useless Francisco.

     
  • Posts: 0 Mostone

    That’s what I get for being a hater! A BEN FRANCISCO TREAT!

     
  • Posts: 0 bostonkate

    AHHHHHHHHHHHH OMG. THANK YOU BEN FRAN!

     
  • Posts: 0 Mostone

    We’re finally getting to Jaime!

     
  • Posts: 356 Morris Buttermaker

    Avatar of Morris Buttermaker

    Here’s the comment I was preparing,

    “Here’s Ben “Sack of Useless” pinch hitting, because the headless corpse of Tim Williams is unavailable today,”

     
  • Posts: 0 Mostone

    Morris – Are you still with us, man?

     
  • Posts: 0 joey

    wow Big Ben ..I am stunned Tony la russa eatsb a big turd

     
    • Posts: 0 Ryan H

      why did he walk chooch? didn’t make any sense to me and still doesn’t . guess he just wanted to get cole outta the game but i think cole was done regardless

       
  • Posts: 0 Ryan H

    that one swing of the at bat has made ben francisco’s entire stay here in philadelphia worth every horrible shitty ab he’s had up until this point.

     
  • Posts: 0 Mostone

    Obvious cross-post

     
  • Posts: 3483 Lefty

    Avatar of Lefty

    Every single postseason there is an unlikely hero!!

    Ben Francisco !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

     
  • Posts: 81 PhP54

    Avatar of PhP54

    I hope all of you Francisco haters are happy.

     
  • Posts: 81 PhP54

    Avatar of PhP54

    NOW – can the bullpen hold it? We shall see. I hate to say it but they need to be PERFECT this time.

     
  • Posts: 356 Morris Buttermaker

    Avatar of Morris Buttermaker

    I am back. I was busy screaming my head off. I was giving him the Bruntlett treatment. The more you curse him, the better he plays.

     
  • Posts: 0 Mostone

    Go Vanimal.

     
  • Posts: 356 Morris Buttermaker

    Avatar of Morris Buttermaker

    Finally, that Ben Francisco/ Cliff Lee trade finally pays off.

     
  • Posts: 356 Morris Buttermaker

    Avatar of Morris Buttermaker

    Vanimal is too hype. He is over throwing. Go talk to him.

     
  • Posts: 0 Mostone

    Still a big ball of anxiety here in West Chester.

     
  • Posts: 0 Ryan H

    my bloodpressure is about 570/300

     
    • Posts: 0 Ryan H

      looooooong way to go here in this one

       
      • Posts: 81 PhP54

        Avatar of PhP54

        You are not alone, dude

         
  • Posts: 356 Morris Buttermaker

    Avatar of Morris Buttermaker

    Sometimes you just gotta believe.

    And be on your third pitcher of beer.

     
    • Posts: 81 PhP54

      Avatar of PhP54

      We’re f*****d

       
 
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