Phillies Nation

What a poorly-written column! Sorry, but it was virtually unreable.
From what I could manage to glean, however, my response is that Howard will play full-time once healthy. Nix won’t play as much as you think, and Wigginton will probably play more than you think. I don’t see Thome playing much 1b at all. Mayberry should start both ways, and probably will (shuttling between LF and 1b).

If the platoon system works for the Phils in 2012, then we win more games, if it doesn’t then we lose more. That simple. Hopefully it works and we have a very solid and game-ready bench as a result.

Well doesn’t that just about say it all? The whole Delaware Valley has been agreeing for years that Ryan blows against LHP and that Jimmy shouldn’t be batting leadoff and that both of them should be batting at other places in the lineup. Which makes us all wrong and Charlie right. I oi not believe for a second that RAJ suggests to Charlie whay his lineup should look like.

The only real tradeable commodity that we have that we would trade is Shane. We need a leadoff hitter. If we get one then the lineup falls into place…..look:

New guy
Chase
Jimmy
Pence
Howard
JMJ/Nix
Polanco (wince)
Chooch

Its better.

The Dipsy

Well Schmenk, I’ll explain it to you. Over a 162 game season, when the Phillies face 140 shitty pitchers, their Earl Weaver 1970 style offense works. They DO have good offensive players. Unfortunately, when the playoffs role around and they have to face a good pitcher every night, when the “offense in the margins” stuff becomes important, i.e. walking, moving runners, hitting and running, sac flies, etc , they don’t win. Because they can’t play that way. When a team has to scratch for a run, get a guy on base, in scoring position, Howard swings at a 3-0 pitch with no one out and flies out. That is the problem with Charlie Manuel baseball distilled into one play. The Giants and Cards can play that way and they beat us.

In every sport, in the crucible of post season play, nuts tighten up, and its the “little things” and the fundamentals that makes the difference between winners and losers most of the time. Not the three run homer. Learn it. Live it. Rollins and Victorino and Ryan and Ibanez swing like idiots. No idea how to work a pitcher. No desire to just stroke one up the middle. No desire or know how to manufacture runs. Chris Carpenter, Sabbathia, Lincecum, Cain…..they don’t give up six runs in a game. Ever. One run is everything in the post season.

If they don’t find players that can play a little small ball, not change the offense into small ball, but just be able to play it, they will lose in the post season again because that’s what wins in the post season. The regular season and post season are two different animals.

The Dipsy

I completely agree with Bob’s last post. It’s classic managerial theory, and is quite accepted in behavioral theory circles, as well.
This isn’t Strat-O-Matic baseball (to quote P. Gammons)– these are REAL people.

As for small ball…you don’t win by playing small ball in a bandbox. I agree that Rollins is a terrible leadoff option, Until the Phillies get a high-ob guy there, they are going to struggle at pitchers’ ballparks. Manufacturing runs is predicated in good on-base at the top.
Howard does his job. Yes, his numbers have dipped a bit over the last few years, but he set his own bar so very high, a downturn was inevitable. He’s been one of THE top few most prolific power/production hitters in all of baseball for many years.

I think John Mayberry Jr. showed enough last year to be an everyday starter SOMEWHERE on this team. Whether that be LF or 1B (in Howard’s absense), he deserves it.

Further more, it seems like him playing everyday is the best move for the team. Remember when Jayson Werth had to platoon with…who was it…Geoff Jenkins? Because he, supposedly, couldn’t hit righties? Once Werth was given the everyday job, he flourished. Let’s give Mayberry the chance to do the same. His ceiling is higher than anyone else’s we could put in LF or at 1B (in Howard’s absence).

As far as what should happen if the platoon/replacement flourishes? It doesn’t matter what we think should happen because Manual has shown that he will be loyal to a fault. While we’ve all complained when Ibanez was still getting starts after months of struggles and Lidge was still closing at the end of 2009, sometimes his loyalty pays off (as it did with Lidge for most of the 09 postseason) and you can not discount what that loyalty must mean to the other players on the team who are also aging. It at least puts them in an eased mindset which is conducive to concentration at the job at hand.

Manuel’s loyalty plus Howards monster contract and Amaro’s desire to be proven right in the end means Howard is the starting 1B regardless of how he plays for a very, VERY long time in my opinion. I love Howard, but unfortunately contracts in baseball are not like in the NFL and you can’t just ditch Drew Bledsoe when Tom Brady steps up in the MLB.

Let’s all just hope that Howard has a David Ortiz second life or something and can just give us .250 and 25-30 HR for the next 5 years. Or at least 3.

I wonder if whoever signs Fielder will platoon him?

OPS vs. LHPs the last two years:

Fielder .738
Howard .736

Or more to the point, were they having this discussion in Milwaukee last winter after he posted a .668 OPS? He rebounded to .822 this year, but then Howard had a .826 OPS vs. LHPs in 2010.

Victorino had a .681 OPS vs. RHPs in 2010 and .745 for his career? At what point does he sit out vs. righties?

In the end, I think Howard will be given a rest vs. tough lefties, like he was for much of 2011.