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Phils Can Afford Victorino & Hamels, But Not a 3B

Posted by Corey Seidman, Fri, March 02, 2012 08:20 AM | Comments: 54
2012 Spring Training, Acquisitions, Analysis, Free Agency, Offseason, Posts, Rumors, Statistical Analysis, Transactions

(This article is just over 1,000 words, but I promise you that they’re all worth it in understanding exactly how much money the Phillies will and can commit to Shane Victorino.)

PHOTO: Zimbio.com

A benefit to the Phillies having the second most wins in baseball since 2007 (473, the Yankees have 479) is that few players want to leave.

Going back to that first playoff season since 1993, every free agent the Phillies let walk — save for Jayson Werth — found work elsewhere because the team decided to move on.

Shane Victorino is the latest in a series of players who have expressed their desire to remain in Philadelphia, but his words were a bit more direct than most. Victorino explicitly used the words “hometown discount” this week, which was sonic beauty to Phillies fans and torture to his agents, the Levinson Brothers.

“I’m willing to give up free agency,” Victorino told ESPN’s Jayson Stark at the beginning of the final week of February. “A lot of guys won’t. In the game of baseball, free agency is what every major league player dreams of. You want to maximize your value, and of course I do, too. But what’s important to me is, I want to be here. I love playing here. My family loves the city. I love the city. So when I made that statement (to Todd Zolecki, that I’m not going anywhere), that’s what I meant.”

Victorino likely realized after those comments that no matter how badly he wants to stay in Philly, it isn’t worth making public comments and losing so much leverage. He clarified things a bit for CSNPhilly.com’s Jim Salisbury Thursday morning.

“I look at it this way, if it’s a significant difference, I have to weigh my options,” Victorino told CSNPhilly.com. “I obviously love playing in Philly. They made me who I am. That sits in the back of my mind. But I also understand there’s a window in this game. Age and time comes into play. When I say I don’t want to go anywhere — yeah, I call this home and I want to finish my career here — but we’ll see how it goes.

“I won’t say I won’t take a hometown discount, but I also will say I want to maximize my opportunity with not only what I’ve accomplished as an individual, but as part of a team.”

Victorino then made his first public request for five years, the same contractual length Jimmy Rollins sought at the outset of his own free agency.

“I’ll be 32 on the market,” said Victorino. “I can go another five years. I would think even more. I want to go until I’m 40. My agents say I can get a five-year deal on the market. Why not trust them?”

Here’s the part where we examine whether or not five years is a realistic length for Victorino.

The short answer is absolutely.

In sitting down to write this, I thought comparing Victorino to Torii Hunter was a novel idea, but as often happens, it’s just an idea that independently hit me two days after it hit David Murphy and 10 hours after it hit Zolecki.

Anywho, Hunter signed a five-year, $90 million deal with the Angels prior to the 2008 season, when he was 32, the same age Victorino turns in November.

And Victorino hasn’t just out-produced Hunter in the years leading up to his free agency, he’s blown him out of the water.

In the four seasons before Hunter went on the market, he compiled 11.3 WAR, or an average of 2.8 wins above replacement per season. In his last four seasons, Victorino has totaled 18.0 WAR, or 4.5 per season.

Whether you believe in WAR as an all-encompassing stat or not, the market value for one win above replacement is around $4-4.5 million. That is, a league-average player who is worth 2.0 WAR per season could realistically command a two-year, $9 million deal.

In a perfectly fair world, Victorino would have made $81 million for his high level of production the last four seasons — 4.5 WAR x $4.5MM = $20.25 million per season. Moving forward, we could realistically peg Victorino as a 4.0-WAR player the next four seasons. His blend of power, elite baserunning and solid defense at one of the sport’s toughest positions will prevent him from falling off a cliff from a value standpoint.

So, assuming he’ll produce 4.0 WAR each season for the next four or five years, a five-year deal for Victorino belongs precisely at $90 million, the same as Hunter’s terms.

But not all free agent cases are created equal. Hunter was probably overpaid by the Angels, but Los Angeles needed an outfielder and middle-of-the-order bat to complement Vladimir Guerrero, and needed to make a splash. Hunter felt loyalty to the Twins, but not enough to disregard an offer that would set his family up for generations.

Victorino is a different story. He clearly wants to stay in Philly, and the circumstances surrounding the Phils’ extremely high payroll dictate that if staying means as much to Victorino as he says it does, he’ll need to take that hometown discount.

In a quick poll on Twitter, I found that Phillies fans are seeing this situation in an unrealistically optimistic light. One fan said he’d go no further than $10 million per year for Victorino. Another said $11 million. Another said $12 million.

Average annual salaries ranging from $10-12 million are too low. When Victorino said “if it’s a significant difference, I have to weigh my options,” this is likely what he meant. There is a huge difference between $12 million and the $18 million per season that he deserves. Over a four- or five-year deal, that is a total of $24-30 million, which was the inheritance distributed to Michael Jackson’s children.

In situations like this, compromising by bridging the gap is often the best course of action in getting a deal done. And Victorino wants to get that deal done quickly.

The middle-ground between $12MM and $18MM is $15 million. So that’s our annual average value.

But five years, at $15MM a pop? That’s where that “hometown discount” comes back to play a role. The Phillies should give Victorino four years with a team or mutual option, but not five. To make him feel a little better about the non-guaranteed fifth year, they can boost the value of the deal slightly by throwing in an extra $2.5 million.

The end result? A four-year, $62.5 million contract extension for Victorino.

Is $15.625 million per season affordable for the Phillies?

Yes.

Signing Victorino to that annual average value and signing Cole Hamels for roughly $21 million per season would put the Phils’ 2013 payroll at $149 million, for 10 players. That leaves 15-20 open roster spots and about $30 million before the luxury tax kicks in.

Between 8-10 of those open spots will be filled by cheap, young guys like John Mayberry, Domonic Brown, Michael Martinez and the plethora of impressive home-grown relievers. Add in those salaries at an average of $500,000 and the Phillies would be at $154 million for 20 players. Hunter Pence‘s final year of arbitration would brings that number to about $168 million. Picking up Carlos Ruiz‘s option would bring it to $173 million.

The end result is that, yes, the Phillies can afford to extend both Hamels and Victorino (and eventually Pence, just not until next year). The casualty is that they won’t be able to sign a top-tier third baseman.

So I guess the question you must ask yourself is, “Do I want Victorino in center, or do I want a top-tier third baseman?”

The only player who will be both worth it and available next winter — if his option isn’t picked up or he is traded before-hand — is some guy named David Wright.

Avatar of Corey Seidman

About Corey Seidman

Corey Seidman has written 210 articles on Phillies Nation.

Corey is Analysis Editor for Phillies Nation and also writes for CSNPhilly.com.

 
 
  • Posts: 0 JMills

    I would give Victorino the same deal that Rollins got and not a penny more. If both Mayberry and Brown have good years then I don’t see them signing Shane.

     
  • Posts: 0 George

    I’d take Victorino over David Wright. Above average center fielders are hard to find and it’s a very important position.

    But much will depend on how Brown works out and if Mayberry continues to produce. Brown probably couldn’t move to center, but Mayberry might be adequate there with Brown playing left.

     
  • Posts: 0 Chris

    I’m just not sure about this one. I like Vic alot but it would appear that OF is one of the few positions the Phils can fill with some kind of youth in the near future. And I guess we’re getting rid of Pence in this scenario which I don’t necessarily have a problem with that but if there are significant performance differences between him and Victorino this year you’d have to rethink it. Also if Mayberry and Brown continue to progress it just makes this whole thing much more tangled.

     
  • Posts: 1190 Manny

    Avatar of Manny

    I don’t know if this would make much sense at this point. Clearly, Vic had a career year in 2011 (dark horse MVP candidate up until the very last month of the season) and we may be giving too much weight it. I think it’s prudent to wait this one out a bit…

     
  • Posts: 0 bacardipr05

    Oh i know the Dipsy Dude gonna feast on this one….Anyways ive always liked Shane, yeah he might no be perfect but ive always liked him as a player…So do many fans if you ever visit a bar…I read his statement and already see comments regarding his statement on other blogs…Other than maybe the 5 year thing I dont believe he said anything wrong…Yeah maybe a touch head strong but thats how Shane is…He said things that where truthful without really crossing the line..I believe for the production that Shane has giving us we had a bargain for the most part… .He has never made a big deal about been underpaid or other nonsense…However i just dont see a 5 year deal happening…I can see a 3 year deal possibly been hammered out but not 5…In reality i dont think Shane will be back..Not unless he agrees to a 1 year contract as a insurance policy till they find out what they have in Mayberry/Brown…I just dont see it…

     
  • Posts: 0 Brion

    Over a 1,000 words?! That’s cool. I like to read.
    And no, I wouldn’t want David Wright over Victorino.

     
  • Posts: 1190 Manny

    Avatar of Manny

    It’s easy for people to say NOW that they’d rather have Victorino over Wright in the long-run. And that would seem like an easy conclusion after Shane having an amazing 2011 and Wright having a sub-par but still decent year.

    Avg wRC+ for Shane in the past 3 years: 118.7
    Avg wRC+ for Wright in the past 3 years: 124.3

    Also, Wright is two years younger than Shane. And he plays half of his game at CitiField these days.

    I definitely think we would be better off with a combination of: Wright, Brown, and Mayberry than Shane, Brown (or Mayberry), and some fill-in third baseman. And the two options would cost right about the same.

     
    • Posts: 0 agam22

      You’re also ignoring the fact the Wright has become below average as a third baseman and isn’t much on the bases, while Victorino gives you good defense at a premium position and is a good runner. I have no problem letting Victorino walk if there is a good replacement, but I sure as hell don’t want David Wright if the contract is even remotely close to this theorized Victorino deal

       
      • Avatar of The Original Chuck P

        Clubhouse influence aside (I’m not sure if you could take Wright or if Wright would want to come here given the things that have been said and the rivalry), if you can get David for what it would cost to keep Vic, you take Wright… sorry, there is no way around it. Wright’s average OPS+ over 8 seasons is 134 (compared to Vic at 104). Wright is younger, he plays a harder position to fill (find me one person that can play third base on our farm) and when he’s healthy he’s a legitimate MVP contender.

         
      • Posts: 0 George

        Yes, Original, but how many years is Wright healthy, and why has his defense slipped in the past few years? And even when healthy, I doubt he’s an MVP contender these days. I also disagree that third is a harder position to fill. The Phils may not have one coming up right now, but there are such things as trades and free agents and stopgaps like Wigginton.

         
  • Posts: 220 The Dipsy

    Avatar of The Dipsy

    Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha. 15m per for Shane Victorino? Thats just about the funniest thing I’ve ever heard. I don’t want a 36 year old Shane Victorino in centerfield.

    The Dipsy

     
    • Posts: 0 stephie lemma

      Its not the age Its the action. And Vic has it We do much better at keeping his Talent rather than going with an unsure thing. Victorino has brought a lot to this team.

       
  • Avatar of The Original Chuck P

    This is a really tough decision… my knee-jerk says that five years is too long and that kind of money is too much. I like Shane. I admire that he wants to come back on a hometown discount but if he’s gauging his worth off of the deals that Torii Hunter or Aaron Rowand signed, he’s proving the point that he’s not worth it. I think that a four year deal at this point would be ok. I really think that the $12 million mark is what I would be comfortable with. I know that you think that’s low but you’re assertion that he’s easily a 4 WAR guy over the next four seasons is off. Vic has only had one +4 WAR season in his career (last year, when he was at 5.1). I think he’s more like a 3 WAR guy moving forward… let’s face it, he relies on his legs for everything and he’s 32 years old (which means he’s not getting any faster). He gets SLG% from his legs (triples), he scores runs with his legs, he gets to balls that others don’t because of his legs and he steals bases because of his legs. Take away his legs and what are you left with? Phil Bradley… check the BBREF page. Their OPS and WAR numbers are very similar. Bradley was nowhere near the caliber defender that Vic was in terms of range but Bradley arguably posted better offensive numbers and his 54 career assists as a LF ranks among the top 100 since 1954 and his career fielding percentage is very good (albeit not as good as Vic’s .9957 which ranks first all-time). My point with Bradley – he injured his wrist in his age 31 season and couldn’t find a job as a free agent. If Vic happened to injure one of his legs (God forbid), no one would even pick up the phone… If he wants 5 years, throw out 4 years deal worth $12 million per with a 5th year player option around the $7 million mark. We can afford a $7 million mistake in year 5 when he’s 36/37. If he’s looking for more money that that, I’m not going out further than 4 years… not a chance. Not without options to get out.

    Vic’s player comparison page:
    http://www.baseball-reference.com/friv/scomp_bat.cgi?I=victosh01:Shane%20Victorino&st=age&compage=30&age=30

     
  • Posts: 0 Don M

    To me, Victorino is one of the most frustrating players to follow…despite all the “he takes bad routes to balls” comments people post, I’ve said many times that I think Victorino plays an excellent CF ……… but dating back quite some time I’ve expressed great concern over the fact that one of the “fastest players in baseball” seems so reluctant to use his SPEED. …doesn’t bunt for hits, or to make defenses align to defend the possibility of him laying one down, he steals a good amount of bases, but hardly as many as he could ….. He doesn’t have an OBP that would lead you to believe he should leadoff …etc . . .
    He’s a very, very, good complimentary piece- a guy that does everything well, but in a game where guys get paid for HRs and high Avg …. I can’t see anyone spending crazy money on Speed/Defense. I think that the $10m-ish range is right where he should be given his skill set, and I’d save the $15 M per year deals for Pence. . Don’t get me wrong, I’m glad Victorino plays for the Phillies, but I think the parts of his game are replaceable… he doesn’t use his greatest asset enough, and he has no defined spot in the lineup, doesn’t always seem to have a consistent offensive approach to maximize his talents, or to give himself up to help the team…etc.
    I’d walk up to Shane in the near future and offer 4 years, $44 M…. take it or leave it… And I think he would sign, and be set for life

     
    • Posts: 312 Corey Seidman

      Avatar of Corey Seidman

      A 37-year-old Raul Ibanez made $10.5 million per season over three seasons.

      A 32-year-old Victorino will not be signing a contract like that.

      A team wouldn’t be paying for speed and defense. They’d be paying for speed, defense, and a lifetime .280 hitter who each year hits 30 doubles, 10-plus triples, and between 15-20 home runs.

      How many centerfielders do that? Torii Hunter hit a few more homers each season but no triples. He made $90 million.

      A hometown discount doesn’t mean “half of what a much lesser player made.”

       
      • Posts: 0 Don M

        See I understand the stat-comparables between Vic and Hunter …. but they had different roles . Hunter was a middle of the order bat … coming off of seasons in which he hit 31 and 28 HRs… signed to be a #3, 4, 5 bat in the order to drive in runs, etc . . .

        And while I fully understand the arguement that “if Victorino hit 4th for the Phillies instead of Howard, he would have x amount of RBI too” …. that isn’t his skill set, so that’s why he doesn’t hit there…

        Victorino is a likely 1, 2, or 6 hitter (maaayyyybe 3rd or 5th on a bad team)…. his 17 HRs prior to a Free Agent year aren’t that close to the 31 HRs that Torii Hunter hit ………and as we’ve seen time and time again, THOSE are the guys that get paid the big bucks. If Vic hits 25 HRs this year, I think somebody cuts him a huge check … if he remains in the 15 HR range, then I think he gets paid as a Speed/Defense player … which means not for nearly as much money as a HR/RBI guy …

         
      • Posts: 1135 EricL

        Avatar of EricL

        Victorino being massively underrated ITT.

        Don, against left-handed pitching Victorino is the best hitter on the team. Last season he had an isolated power of .300(!) against LHP. That’s Jose Bautista territory. Victorino is most certainly a middle-of-the-lineup hitter against LHP. Just because a guy has some speed doesn’t mean he’s not eminently suitable for the 3-4-5 lineup positions.

        I don’t necessarily disagree that Victorino will be paid less than guys who put up huge power numbers, that doesn’t mean it’s the logical or correct thing for a team to do. In fact, I’d argue that there’s an arbitrage opportunity for smart teams who realize the value in baserunning and defense and pay players who excel in those areas but who aren’t necessarily perceived as sluggers handsomely, but still less than their big-power, big-K%, poor-fielding counterparts will make.

        I think $15mm is a good number for Vic, if they can get him at it. That being said, a lot depends on what Mayberry looks like this season. If he reverts to the middling player he was for the majority of his career rather than the destoryer he was over the 2nd half of last season Victorino becomes MUCH more valuable to the Phils.

         
      • Posts: 0 Don M

        while that is great power (great isn’t a strong enough word) .. ISO vs LHP last season … for his career its .210 …nothing to sneeze at either .. but his numbers batting RH are a lot better than LH

        I’m seriously not trying to knock Victorino … we don’t win a WS .. or 102 games last year without him …… and if we can afford him and Hamels, great!! …

        I just think that’s a lot of money for a non-power guy and would be surprised to see teams pay that much money for “Speed/Defense… and power vs LHP” .. lower in this thread I listed the Cubs and Nats as teams I wouldn’t be surprised to pursue him – I wonder how many more teams there are…

         
  • Posts: 0 George

    As usual, there are a lot of cheap screws(tightwads) posting today. $10-11 million? What do you think a gold glove .280 average, fast center fielder goes for these days, a bag of baseballs?

     
    • Avatar of The Original Chuck P

      George… this is in response to the question that you posted regarding David Wright above – he has had one season shortened due to injury, 6/7 seasons he had +600 AB (Vic, by comparison has had 3/6), Wright posted an OPS+ of 131 last season (a season that you said was a decline year… that 131 number is better than Vic’s career high, which was set last year) and the reality is that 3B is NOT an easier position to fill than CF for our team because we don’t have anything on the farm that can plug that hold (Wigginton… really? Let’s wait and see before we make him our every day 3B).

      Look at the comparison link above… tell me if any of those guys had ANY success after age 32.

       
      • Posts: 1135 EricL

        Avatar of EricL

        First, the Mets have an option on Wright, so it’s not entirely set in stone that he’ll even be available.

        Second, the Phillies have a VERY CHEAP option on a VERY VALUABLE 3B who’s already on their roster and who, over the last few years, has been nearly as valuable as David Wright, at about a third of the price.

        Third, as I said in a previous post, this discussion is significantly dependent upon the performance of John Mayberry this year. If the 3 months of brilliance he showed last summer was more a result of a hot streak coupled with a small sample size rather than a true talent improvement, well, Victorino suddenly becomes extremely valuable to the Phils.

         
      • Posts: 0 George

        I’d still prefer Vic. It’s far more important to have speed and excellent defense in center. There have been tons of third basemen who weren’t for crap whose teams went all the way. Need I mention the 2008 Phils?

         
  • Posts: 220 The Dipsy

    Avatar of The Dipsy

    I don’t get the Ibanez analogy. Victorino not a good enough offensive player to command 15m a year. He’s one of those guys that does a little of everything. You don’t pay 15m for that. We shouldn’t compare bad contracts given out by others teams as a measuring stick for what Vic should get. Shane is a “nice player”. Thats it. I would much rather put a speed defense guy out there and work some offense into LF, where you can get good offensive numbers for less money.

    The Dipsy

     
    • Posts: 0 George

      Hate to tell you this, Dipsy, but Shane IS a speed defense guy.

       
    • Posts: 312 Corey Seidman

      Avatar of Corey Seidman

      A good comp for Victorino will be Brandon Phillips, another player who “does a little of everything” at a premium defensive position.

      You have biases against Victorino because you’re you. Every other contending team in need of a centerfielder would pay Victorino $60 million over four years. If you think otherwise you’re not paying attention to how teams operate.

      Speed, defense and good offense without big-home run power got Carl Crawford paid…

       
      • Posts: 0 Don M

        Which then leads to the question if Team X offers Shane 4/$60 M … what would it take for him to want to stay with the Phillies isntead … 4/$44 would seem low, but 4/$48 .. 4/$50 ..

        would he be willing to up and leave the team, city, routine he’s used to for $10-15 M, when he could stay put and still make fortune… enough for any non-Iverson to live comfortably


        The other thing is… which “contending” teams will be in the market for a CF … RedSox and Yankees seem fine there .. Angels and Dodgers look to be all set .. maybe the Rangers depending on Josh Hamilton? …. Maybe the Cubs? ….

        or… the Nationals ….. the team that would love nothing more than to grab a legit CF – in Victorino or Michael Bourn .. let Harper play RF … let Werth play LF.. Morse to 1b (LaRoche i believe only has this year remaining) ..

         
      • Avatar of The Original Chuck P

        Brandon Phillips is set to become a free agent after this season… he’s probably a top 5 2B in all of baseball. Vic is barely top 10 CF. Re: Crawford – do you wanna base any contract off of Crawford at this point? I’m sure the Red Sox just love staring at that $142 million commitment.

        Just because other teams do it, doesn’t mean we have to. Speedy .275 hitters that play defense shouldn’t get paid like .300/.400/.500 guys.

         
      • Posts: 312 Corey Seidman

        Avatar of Corey Seidman

        To Chuck P. – Victorino has been the second most valuable CF in baseball since 2008, per Fangraphs.

        Phillips has been the fifth best second baseman.

        The Crawford contract was obviously ridiculous. But that doesn’t mean Victorino is worth $100 million less.

         
  • Posts: 2069 Brooks

    Avatar of Brooks

    If Shane Victorino was on a team that faced the Phils, he would rise to the top of most hated players. Its the way I felt about Nails before he came here. Fiesty, with attitude to boot and frankly, he has backed it up (the Phils probably would NOT have gotten to the 08 WS without Shane – what would the Stairs blast have meant without Shane’s knock?).

    In 2011, Shane did not commit a single error (according to baseballreference) and yet was not rewarded with his 4th consecutive GG award in CF.

    No one on the Phis has been more consistent year after year than Shane has at the plate. Yes, in 2010 his average dipped but, for most of last year he was in a zone offensively.
    He did miss 30 games last year but other than that for the way he puts all out for every game, I’m happy. No prima donna here. That being said, 5 years is just a little too long. Barter for 4.

    I feel good about Shane hitting 2nd on this team, turn this guy loose.

     
  • Posts: 5152 Lefty

    Avatar of Lefty

    My answer to your question would be both. But since that’s probably impossible, I’ll remind everyone that the Phillies won a title with Shane in CF and Pedro Feliz at third. David Wright would be nice, but IMO isn’t a necessity.

    5 years? That’s hard to swallow. But like Rollins, if he started by saying 4, he’d get 3. So he has to say that.

     
  • Posts: 0 TheDipsy

    George – point being, just give me a speed defense guy CF and you can keep some of the offensive numbers (i.e. a Michael Bourn type) and I’ll make up Shane’s offesnive numbers in another spot. I, for one, would not pay 15m for a good offensive CF who hits just 15HR and bats .280.

    The Dipsy

     
    • Posts: 312 Corey Seidman

      Avatar of Corey Seidman

      “I, for one, would not pay 15m for a good offensive CF who hits just 15HR and bats .280.”

      =

      “I, for one, would not pay $125 million for a first baseman who doesn’t steal bases or hit singles.”

      You’re not paying for .280 and 15 homers. You’re paying for the entire package that is Victorino, which you underrate because you’re used to it.

      I’d rather spend $15 million per year on a guy who can do multiple things and bat anywhere in the order than spend it on a one-dimensional player at a corner infield/outfield spot.

       
      • Posts: 0 Don M

        “I’d rather spend $15 million per year on a guy who can do multiple things and bat anywhere in the order than spend it on a one-dimensional player at a corner infield/outfield spot.”

        THAT … is very toguh to argue with. Victorino clearly is very valuable, is just a matter of how much the Phillies want to pay him vs. how much someone else does . If the Nats want to spend $75 M over 5 years … I think the Phillies let him walk

        ..though while I was posting this response, I saw your below comment on 15-17 HR and 10-13 triples being pretty much the same as 25 HRs …. to me, the fact that a HR puts a RUN on the board- not relying on any other player is a huge aspect of the game. guys that can change the game with one swing of the bat are insanely valuable in my mind … though when you weigh that the higher HR guy gets on base less, etc … opinions may change

         
    • Posts: 312 Corey Seidman

      Avatar of Corey Seidman

      Also, 15-17 homers is extremely valuable when it comes along with 10-13 triples. That’s pretty much the same as a guy who hits 25 homers with one triple.

       
    • Posts: 0 George

      Bourn will be making Victorino money sooner than you think. The only thing holding him back is service time.

       
  • Posts: 0 Jared Smull

    Instead Of 3B Why Not Move Freddy Galvis Over to 3B Cause Since Rollins is here For another 4 years. I would love a Lineup of Rollins, Victorino, Utley, Howard , pence, Mayberry, Ruiz, Galvis and Pitcher.

     
  • Posts: 5152 Lefty

    Avatar of Lefty

    I’m seeing several of you thinking that Victorino is a like a square peg trying to fit in a round hole. That’s not true. Just because he has speed, doesn’t mean it’s all he has. He may have started out as a defense and speed guy, but has morphed into more of a power hitter.

    OPS since 2006
    .760,.770,.799,.803,.756, .847 So was 2010 the aberration or 2011? I think 2010 was.

    SLG since 2006
    .414, .423,.445, .447, .429, .491 Again he only hit .259 in 2010 suggesting some bad luck, but not a career norm.

    And despite Uncle Cholly’s opinion, he’s also not a top of the line up hitter, he belongs in the middle. For his career, batting 5th his OPS is .842, batting 6th .921. Everywhere else, below .800.

    He’s no longer a square peg, he’s a round one.

     
  • Posts: 0 bacardipr05

    Usually most teams like a 3B to have some power and hit a few HR. Galvis isnt that type of player. Yes neither is Polly, but he is a career .300+ hitter who doesnt strike out much. Its possible they can shift Galvis over there but it wouldnt be ideal.

     
  • Posts: 0 Don M

    Next year’s crop of Free Agent 3b doesn’t look great … Polly has a $5.5 M option with a $1 M buyout …. (wonder if he’d agree to the buyout and then a $3.5 M deal) to save us a Million…

    there aren’t a lot of 3bs out there

     
  • Posts: 0 g mo pro

    Vic is a good all around player. He does a lot of things well. Who knows how this will play out.

     
  • Posts: 0 Psujoe

    I’d be willing to pay Vic $15 per for 3 years and negotiate from there. However, if Brown and Mayberry perform well in 2012 something has to give.

     
  • Posts: 0 Bob in Bucks

    The question as always is “compared to what?”. Seems we have possibly 3 decent OF or can find them. 3b is weak and if there is a 3b with power I would go for that but this will not be addressed until after the Hamels situation is resolved. Right now Vic is the best hotter in the lineip.

     
  • Posts: 0 TheDipsy

    Jesus. Shane Victorino is a good player…no doubt. The biggest reason the Phils will never, EVER, pay Shane Victorino that kind of money is that they need that money for other spots. You can get good CF defense without having to pay through the nose for it and – possibly get a true leadoff hitter in the bargain. Also, signing Shane to a 4 year contract just makes them older still – and older for longer. Shane had a great year last year, but to think that he will be replicating that at 33, 34, 35 is unrealistic. You can’t keep everyone. You kept Jimmy – so you can’t keep Shane. IMO.

    The Dipsy

     
  • Posts: 0 Don M

    While I understand the Dipsy logic of “you can’t keep everyone” and how its unrealistic to think that guys will keep replicating great seasons……..this fascination about Getting Younger needs to chill a little… If you are getting the best player available- as Rollins was, as Vic may be, the fact that there may be a younger, worse player out there shouldn’t get anyone excited

     
    • Posts: 93 Ted Bell

      Avatar of Ted Bell

      The “best player available” extends beyond the pending free agent lists though. We all know that, but people tend to look at those and exclude trade possibilities which are always in the background, and not presented in a nice comprehensive list on MLBTR.

      Therefore, the “best player available” may very well be a younger player with lesser stats who has a chance to develop and exceed the production of the older, declining player. It’s up to the front office to be able to target those players before they make the jump to the next plateau. Colorado made a shrewd move like that when they traded Matt Holliday to Oakland for a package that included Carlos Gonzalez.

      David Freese (29) and Placido Polanco (36) both had a 1.8 WAR in 2011. They’re the same player, right? Which one would you rather have in 2012?

      I’m Ted Bell.

       
      • Posts: 0 Don M

        Not every player in baseball is “available” or at least not for a reasonable price…. And being able to keep or acquire a player for just money- instead of prospects + money is a big deal.. Especially for an organization like the Phillies who has traded something like 14 prospects in the past 3-4 seasons to acquire Lee, Halladay, Oswalt and Pence.

        Colorado was in a position where they knew they were losing Holliday and got great talent back… The Phillies could land top prospects if they dealt Vic this year but that doesn’t help them this year . And for the Phillies to land a non- free agent 3b in the future it will cost another boatload of our “top prospects” to get someone worth getting…

         
  • Posts: 2990 Chuck A.

    Avatar of Chuck A.

    I mentioned this earlier when Jimmy was in the middle of his negotiations……but if Galvis really makes serious strides towards being ready, would Jimmy agree at some point to slide over to 3B? Maybe you go with Polly next year for that 4.5M and figure that Jimmy could make that move in 2014. It would solve the third base situation, allow the Phillies to “get younger” (agreed that this theory is overblown sometimes) and possibly give them the flexibility to re-sign Vic.

    A lot of “ifs” there and a lot has to fall into place…

     
  • Posts: 0 TheDipsy

    Chuck, then you a have a very poor hitting left side of your infield. And possibly a poor fielding one also. When we talk about guys that are gonna be free agents next year in CF, I will tell you right now that I would MUCH rather have Michael Bourn. A true leadoff man with blazing speed and a great glove. And he won’t cost you 15m a year. Or 12m.

    The Dipsy

     
    • Posts: 0 delearyous

      dipsy, i’ve seen you comment a lot of dumb things on this site before, but your arguments on this particular article are some of your dumbest ever

      why do you have this notion that it is a necessity to have a power hitting 3b? when was the last time the phillies really had one? due to the often-injured polonco, the phils have had martinez and valdez at 3rd, and despite their obvious lack of power, won a lot of games. before that, they feliz– a guy who no better than .260 with 15 hr, but also played fantasic d. i think the phillies have proven having that strong defense behind a great pitching staff, is the way to win games.

      that being said, they need to ensure those two things stay intact. needless to say, bringing cole back is priority number 1. but after that, lock up solid defense up the middle comes before bringing in a bat to play 3rd.

      personally, i don’t agree with resigning victorino at 15 mil either. but the reason for that is i’d rather make sure pence is back for long-term, more than victorino. for anyone to say he’s not worth spending that money because he doesn’t fit the needs of the team or he isn’t worth 15 mil for his skillset though, is pretty ridiculous

       
  • Posts: 0 Dave Lerch

    I like Victorino. He hustles and plays hard! I’m not worried in the least if we can’t get a deal done with him though. We don’t need to lock in aging, declining talents. We have more than enough of that going on with the starting infield. Hamels is much more important to the long term success of this team. Focus on that signing and find yourself a starting center fielder who is young and has an upside. Mayberry could be the replacement in center. Regardless, we should be able to replace Victorino with a younger talent with upside. BTW, forget about Brown, he can’t play at the major league level. Time to package him and maybe bring in an outfielder with some pop. Victorino has maxed out and is not likely to produce like he has in the past. Good player,but in the grand scheme, I think we can win without him and without being locked in to someone who inevitably is on the decline. Time to infuse some youth and talent and stop locking in players whose best years are behind them.

     
  • Posts: 0 DAP

    I think predicting and average of 4.0 WAR per season for four more years is a bit optimistic. I do think the phillies can afford him though, and as much as he wants to stay, they will probably bring him back.

     
  • Posts: 0 John

    Great article. If J-Roll or Galvis moves to third that would solve that issue. Phillies should be fine in the future.

     
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  • Posts: 0 fre

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