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Week In Review – Final Cuts, Making the Trip North

Posted by Kieran Carobine, Sun, April 01, 2012 05:00 PM | Comments: 33
2012 Spring Training, Posts, Week in Review

Congrats Pierre!

You remember how it was, right?  It’s the week before school starts and you are laying everything out.  You’ve been to the store at least three times that week getting pencils, notebooks and anything you think you might need.  Then comes the clothes.  You can’t even dream about going back to school with the same gear as last year.

The goal is to have a plan.  A first week, first month plan as to how this school year will play out.  Then, as it always does, the plan falls apart the second day.  We do this every year.  And then when you finally graduate, first day of school is redirected to the first day of the year.  Resolutions are broken and the plan is useless.

So goes the way of the General Manager.  This is is his week before classes start.  He is making the changes and preparing himself and this team for class.  Sure, there is a plan.  There is always a plan.  He hopes it will last awhile, but you never know.  Changes will need to be made, but when?

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With this ‘plan’ in place for the season, there are some guys that just aren’t needed.  This happens every Spring and regardless of talent level or performance it’s just a fact that everyone can’t make the team.  The Phillies have slowly been trimming the fat, per say, to get this team ready to compete.  Casualties of baseball war really.  Bill Rice, a NJ native, was one of the names released this week by the organization.  He joins guys like Eric Pettis and Matt Way who won’t be wearing a Philadelphia uniform at any level to start the season.

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It’s not all bad news for the guys left in camp.  Some invitees have really impressed Charlie Manuel and the front office staff this Spring.  Juan Pierre, who was signed to a Minor League deal, has officially made the team while some other guys are still pushing for those final roster spots.  Hector Luna and Scott Podsednik are still trying to make the big league team as we head towards Opening Day.

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As Opening Day approaches you can’t help but to think about what happens after the season. Free agency.  The Phillies have had their check books under a microscope the past couple seasons spending good money on players like Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Ryan Howard.  The big name this season will be Cole Hamels.  He is a free agent after this season and rumor has it that he wants Cliff money; meaning in the 5yr/$100 million range.  Corey breaks down how it could happen for Rube and the Phillies.

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With some pitchers getting their final work in this week before the season starts, a couple of guys didn’t quite round out the spring like they would have hoped.  Halladay and Vance Worley got touched up in their starts.  For Halladay, it seems like the long ball has plagued him this Spring but he keeps saying he is right where he needs to be. His last start, against Toronto, was shortened by rain but he still managed to give up two runs in two innings as well as another home run; his seventh homer given up this Spring.  Worley, slated to start game three of the season, gave up 11 runs in four innings in his last start against the Twin.   The Vanimal had been pretty solid up this point in the Spring and will look to bounce back in Pittsburgh April 8th.

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The Phillies will have some warm up games against the Pirates Monday and Tuesday before heading to Pittsburgh for Opening Day.

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Opening Day is this week.  Get pumped up!  Go Phillies!

Avatar of Kieran Carobine

About Kieran Carobine

Kieran Carobine has written 180 articles on Phillies Nation.

Kieran has been writing since 2010 and is based in Virginia Beach.

 
 
  • Posts: 1190 Manny

    Avatar of Manny

    Contract talks between Cain and the Giants are heating up and reports are that 5/100M is an absolute “floor.” We better hurry up and get Hamels before something like that gets done. Hamels will have to get a better deal than Cain cause he’s simply the better pitcher…

     
    • Posts: 2987 Chuck A.

      Avatar of Chuck A.

      I agree with this 1000% !!!

       
    • Posts: 0 Don M

      I think Corey’s prediction of the 6-year, $112/ 120 M contract looks pretty good.

      I believe he said 5 years at $20 M per … a 6th year option (again at $20 M), or a buy-out of $12 M … so its either 5 years/ $112 M … or 6 years/ $120 M …

      fair deal for both the Phillies and Hamels

       
    • Posts: 1190 Manny

      Avatar of Manny
       
  • Posts: 5143 Lefty

    Avatar of Lefty

    How is Corey’s prediction a fair deal? Cole is a lefty, they get more. Why would Cole’s agent accept anything less than Cliff Lee or CC Sabathia’s deal. Cain is a righty, I doubt they would view that deal as a comp.

    I hope they get this done soon, and have absolutely no inside information, but I just have a nagging feeling that he’s going to cost much more than that.

     
  • Posts: 0 Don M

    I don’t think that teams offer Lefties more money than Righties …. its just that Sabathia – and Johan Santana … were the top Free Agents at the time of their deals … same with Cliff Lee..

    if Felix Hernandez was a Free Agent this year like Hamels, I think Hernandez would get a bigger contract, because he’s the better pitcher by most opinions

    If Cole Hamels wants to chase $140 M from Team X, instead of signing $120 M to stay put in Philadelphia, I would be surprised – but we’ll see

     
    • Posts: 5143 Lefty

      Avatar of Lefty

      I totally disagree, but I don’t have a reference of salary history to prove it. However, being a left-handed pitcher at one time myself, (40 years ago) it was clear that we were a sought after commodity. Check this out.

      http://www.insidepitching.com/?p=1996

       
      • Posts: 0 schmenkman

        Lefty, I agree that LHPs are a sought-after commodity in player selection and development, because their platoon advantage can be used to get better results than what a similarly-talented RHP might get.

        But by the time players hit free agency, they’re not developing any more, they’re established players and we know what results to expect.

        And I believe teams pay according to expected results, regardless of whether the pitcher is lefty or righty.

         
      • Posts: 5143 Lefty

        Avatar of Lefty

        Hey Shenk,
        My research fell flat. I attempted to back up my assertion, and failed. Can you think of a place I could look, without actually hand counting the last 50 years?

         
      • Posts: 0 schmenkman

        If you mean lists of contracts given to pitchers, I don’t know of any database like that.

         
      • Posts: 5143 Lefty

        Avatar of Lefty

        Yes, that’s what I was looking for- or something closer than just going year by year, pitcher by pitcher. I think it would be interesting, but don’t know if it’s compelling enough to do all that.
        Personally I value southpaws because of all the big slugging lefty hitters. Looks like Votto’s going to get his pay day now.

        Thanks anyway, also it looks like I misspelled your moniker, forgot the “m” sorry about that.

         
  • Posts: 2987 Chuck A.

    Avatar of Chuck A.

    Cole was quoted last week as saying that he didn’t know that Magic Johnson knew anything about baseball. That tells me that he’s not really putting much stock into the claim that the Dodgers could be “Team X”. Of course, if the Dodgers wave a 7year/150-175M contract in his face he may change his tune.

    5/112.5M (22.5M AAV) with a 6th year guaranteed at 12.5M – $125M guaranteed….I would think that would get it done. Fingers crossed!

     
  • Avatar of The Original Chuck P

    Cole will get a monster deal… but you’re all missing the big picture with the deal he’ll get. Think CC not Lee… it’s not about AAV, it’s about years. You need to start with 6 years and go from there. Inevitably, I think that Hamels will get a deal similar to the one CC Sabathia signed with the Yankees in 2008 (after his age 27 season; this is Cole’s age 28 season). CC’s deal was for 7 years ($161 million) and it gave CC an opt-out provision after year 4… CC turned that “opt out” into a 5 year extension worth $122 million. All told, he’ll make $200 million over nine seasons. I think Cole will want something similar to what CC got – he’s 27, he’s lefthanded, he led them to a WS and he’ll want to cash in with a long-term deal but unless the Phillies give him a 10 year deal (which I doubt they will), he’s going to want some assurance that he can maximize value… I wouldn’t be surprised if he asked for some assurance that he could re-enter free agency after his age 30 season, like CC did. If they do a deal like that, I think the money is going to look similar to Lee’s… maybe $24 million AAV (so 7 years $168 million with a fourth year opt-out). If the Phillies went 10 years, maybe they could likely get by with something like 10 years and $200 million (essentially buying out one year of that CC pact). Are you willing to take that risk?

     
    • Avatar of The Original Chuck P

      By the way, my estimates are predicated upon the assumption that a deal will not get done and Cole will have another great year while finishing top 5 in Cy voting.

       
    • Posts: 5143 Lefty

      Avatar of Lefty

      No, I’m not willing to take that risk, too many things can go wrong. It doesn’t matter, I don’t get to make those decisions. But if I could, I would never give a pitcher more than 3, maybe 4 and a team option. I’d make him the highest paid pitcher per year without hesitation, but not for any longer than 4.

       
  • Posts: 971 betasigmadeltashag

    Avatar of betasigmadeltashag

    you are not going to see many teams offering 7 or 8 year deals for pitchers not even the Yankees and Red Sox much less 10 years. I think you may have go longer then 3 or 4 but I think if you offer him something like 4 years 88 million to start with a 5th option for 20 million with 10-12 million buy out. Then you can probably sign him to five years 110 million with a sixth year option for 16-20 million with a 10 million buy out. And that would get it done. Advertise it as a six year 130 million deal and every one goes home happy. He options to stay for sixth year and he is 34-35 and you you resign him for two more yearsat what ever you can afford at that time. CC basicly got two monster deals after 27 so outside health issues Cole can get that also

     
  • Posts: 5143 Lefty

    Avatar of Lefty

    Well, I’m reading the Cain deal is six yrs, $127.5M with vesting player opt for ’18 that can bring total to $141M over seven. Full no-trade.

    If Cole goes to FA, he will get much more than that.

     
    • Posts: 1190 Manny

      Avatar of Manny

      It’s a 5-year extension but since it replaces the current deal for this year it looks like it’s 6.

      So we’re talking about a 5 year deal with a vesting option for a 6th year (if we wanna compare it to Cole’s situation).

       
      • Posts: 5143 Lefty

        Avatar of Lefty

        That makes sense, that’s good news.

         
  • Posts: 0 TheDipsy

    If that’s what Cain gets than we have problems. I think that Cole can get 7/175 out of someone. That is if he pitches true to form and reaches free agency. It does make a difference that he’s a lefty. He’s young, no injury issues, and has already proved he knows how to win. Quite frankly, I cannot recall a pitcher even reaching FA similarly situated. I don’t know why the hell Cole woud take 5/110 (thats a guess) to stay with the Phils. Is his mindset closer to that of Werth or Halladay? I think that if they wanna get it done today then the Phils would have to give him something like 6/152m. A hometown discount is one thing but selling yourself short is another.

    The Dipsy

     
    • Posts: 0 George

      Hamels has had some injury issues, including missing a few starts just last season.

       
  • Posts: 0 Don M

    Why does anyone compare anything to Werth’s contract ???? He was offered $126 M …. and no other team came close to that …. can we please stop pretending that he “chose the Money over the Phillies” etc . . . they lowballed him because they knew he’d sign elsewhere and tried to save face with the fans

     
  • Posts: 0 TheDipsy

    Geez Don. What are you? His brother all of a sudden? Cool out ::) He got offered, and accepted, a ton to play in a shithole going nowhere franchise. Point being, Werth had an “I’ll take the money and everything else be damned” point of view. Hey, good for him. Washington sucks and don’t tell me that they’ll be good someday because they will always suck. Washington is a horrible baseball city. Maybe the worst. Werth can’t spell “hometown discount”. I don’t begrudge him, just making an observation.

    The Dipsy

     
  • Posts: 2987 Chuck A.

    Avatar of Chuck A.

    Dipsy, you mean to tell me that YOU would have left approx $70M on the table? Cause that’s what Werth would have done if he took the Phillies lowball offer instead of what the Nats offered. I’m pretty sure that almost 100% of people would have chosen that offer. (Maybe you’re the exception???)

    BTW, watch out for Washington over the next 2,3,4 years. Jayson Werth just may have the last laugh.

     
  • Posts: 0 Jeff Dowder

    Washington’s going nowhere? They seem to be getting better every year, and have Bryce Harper arriving sometime in mid-season. Strasburg, Gonzalez, and Zimmermann are a formidable top three and I like Edwin Jackson and John Lannan a lot better than Worley/Blanton at the back of the rotation. The Nationals won 80 games last season…they’ll win more this year.

     
  • Posts: 0 TheDipsy

    I know Washington has good players. But trust me, they’re Washington. Some franchises just never get it together and the Washington baseball team, bet it 1920, 1970, or 2012, are one of them. Born under a bad sign I guess.

    Jayson Werth made it know from the beginning of his last season with the Phils that he was going for the max contract (and then some!). Eff it, I’m gettin paid. Then he gripped the bat so hard to get his numbers up that he had a bad year with the Phils. And then a bad year for Washington. He was always all about the money from 2010 on. And he got his money. I resent him because Washington, in the midst of an LSD trip, threw up their guts and signed him to that horrific contract and bailed him out. Now he’s just a big deer tick thats gonna suck blood out of the franchise for years. Better them than us I say.

    The Dipsy

     
  • Posts: 0 TheDipsy

    Don – I woulda taken the money. It was his whole MO that last season that turned me off to that guy. Not to mention his lousy demeanor.

    The Dipsy

     
    • Posts: 0 Don M

      Yea im no trying to bash you… I just hate that Werth gets such a bad wrap and people hold it against him that Washington basically gave him an offer he couldn’t refuse. If someone offered Rollins $126 m, he’d be an ex-Phillie, and if someone offered Hamels twice as much as the Phillies do, he’ll be gone too

      The Phillies need to stop d!cking around over a few million dollars an get this Hamels deal done at the start of the season

       
      • Posts: 0 George

        How do you know it’s just a few million dollars? It might be a Werth/Phillies kind of gap, or it might be the years involved. And I haven’t read any legit baseball sources saying that either side is “dicking around.”

         
  • Posts: 2987 Chuck A.

    Avatar of Chuck A.

    I think they’re d*cking around. Hamels has made it very clear that he’s happy here and that he wants to stay. Maybe there is a huge gap in money but somehow I don’t think it’s that big that they can’t find a happy compromise. But what do I really know?

     
  • Posts: 1135 EricL

    Avatar of EricL

    After watching what’s happened with Prince Fielder, Pujols and now Votto, I’d be surprised if Cole doesn’t look for CC type money. There’s just so much cash that teams are throwing around now due to new TV deals and such that is seems like the entire salary paradigm that’s been in place for the last 10 years is being altered.

    If Cole hits free agency I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get something like 9 years 200 million.

     
    • Posts: 2987 Chuck A.

      Avatar of Chuck A.

      Unfortuntely, I think this is now the “new normal.” You’re right. There HAS been some kind of economic change with a lot of these teams. While the Phillies have to play this game (and have to some degree) in order to compete I fear that if they play too hard it will definitely come back to hurt them. Hell, Howard at 5/125 almost sounds like a bargain right now and we all know how silly that is.

       
  • Posts: 0 Online Dating

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