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Writer’s Roundtable: Phillies Nation’s Bold Predicitions

Posted by Pat Gallen, Fri, April 06, 2012 03:25 PM | Comments: 16
Analysis, News, Opinion, Posts, Writer's Roundtable

Who picks Chooch to be an all-star? (MLB)

Let’s go out on a limb. With all of us out there together, it may snap. But it’ll be fun to see if any of our bold predictions pan out.

Each of our contributors makes one bold prediction for the 2012 season. It can be related to anything baseball, not just Phillies. This could get ugly.

Nick Staskin:  The Miami Marlins struggle after a Jose Reyes injury and are never within playoff contention despite opening the piggybank this offseason.  Hanley Ramirez and Ozzie Guillen have numerous altercations that Logan Morrison can’t help but tweet about.

Don McGettigan:  Everyone’s current favorite, the Detroit Tigers, will not make the playoffs this season.  The Tigers have a great lineup, but poor defense, and a starting rotation that leaves a lot to be desired after Justin Verlander. The AL East has four teams that can contend (Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, and Blue Jays), and the AL West has two (Rangers, Angels).  So the easily winnable AL Central seems to only have a spot for one playoff team- the division winner.  I wouldn’t be completely shocked if the Tigers fail to live up to their lofty expectations.

Jay Floyd: Carlos Ruiz makes his first All-Star team. The man known as “Chooch” will roll his scorching hot spring (.479 average in 18 Grapefruit League games) right into an outstanding first half, helping the Phillies when they lack the offensive presence of Chase Utley and Ryan Howard, who are missing time due to injuries.  Don’t be surprised if the man who finished 8th on the team in RBI in 2011, Ruiz, is among the top 3 on the team this year as June rings in and the All-Star voting races heat up.

Amanda Orr: My bold prediction is that Phillies fans will be screaming “Chooooooooch” more than usual. Carlos Ruiz will have a career year. As always, he will be stellar behind the plate, but I also see his numbers taking a jump offensively. His average will approach .300 and he will have about five to seven more homers than what he usually averages per year. I’m calling a big year for Chooch.

Jon Nisula: Carlos Ruiz will be the best hitter on the Phillies by the end of the year. Ruiz has always been a mediocre offensive player. His career OPS of .752 ranks ninth among active, qualified, Phillies hitters. However, with the injuries to Chase Utley and Ryan Howard to go along with the decline of Jimmy Rollins and Placido Polanco, Ruiz could find himself as the best hitter in 2012 if he picks it up a little bit–something he is sure capable of doing. On Opening Day, he went 3-3, including the game’s only RBI with a sacrifice fly. He won’t go 3-3 every game, but he is showing us that he is capable of being a middle of the lineup hitter. Maybe Charlie should take notice.

Ian Riccaboni: Jonathan Papelbon racks up 50 saves. He has never racked up more than 41 saves in a season despite being on a World Series Winner and consistent contender. This year? Dominant starting pitching and a light offense should provide him plenty of opportunities to rapidly approach and reach 50 saves. While I agree the save metric is flawed, 50 saves would be quite the accomplishment. The 50 mark has only reached or exceeded 11 times and by a variety of players on teams of all shapes and sizes. The good news of reaching the 50 saves mark? 7 out of the 11 players to do it saw their teams reach the postseason. If Opening Day was any indication, Papelbon should have no problem getting more than 50 chances.

Corey Seidman: Mets score more runs than the Nationals. Washington just simply doesn’t have enough on-base percentage and lacks the big-time power to make up for it. Mike Morse is on the DL and there is a good chance he isn’t the same player he was last season. Jayson Werth should improve, sure, but keep in mind that Ryan Zimmerman has missed an average of 36 games per season the last three years. And the Nats’ 1-2 batters are Ian Desmond and Danny Espinosa, players with respective .304 and .316 career on-base percentages. The Mets, meanwhile, should perform better in the shortened dimensions of Citi Field (fences were brought in and lowered) and if they have a full season of David Wright and Ike Davis there is no way they score fewer runs than the Nationals.

Brian Michael:  The Phillies get off to a slow start and are out of contention by July.  They decide to trade Cole Hamels before the deadline for some young talent after realizing Chase Utley and Ryan Howard will require permanent replacements.

Pat Gallen: Cole Hamels will sign an extension in-season. Call this one a hunch – I have no insider information – but if the Phillies are willing to extend Ryan Howard in the middle of the year, then why not Hamels?  I have a feeling the Phillies understand the gravity of the situation. If Hamels gets to free agency, he’s good as gone. They’d be wise to do something as soon as possible, but a deal WILL get done. They really have no choice. They can’t let their youngest ace go.

Avatar of Pat Gallen

About Pat Gallen

Pat Gallen has written 1677 articles on Phillies Nation.

Pat is Editor-in-Chief of Phillies Nation. He also covers the Phils for 97.5 FM in Philly.

 
 
  • Posts: 0 bacardipr05

    I predicted chooch will be hitting .325 through out April on another blog…he might be our not so secret weapon in this offense….

     
    • Posts: 1435 Pat Gallen

      Avatar of Pat Gallen

      I’m not sure if I agree. Catchers wear down over the course of a season and with Schneider the backup, Ruiz will play plenty of games back there. I see more .275-ish.

       
  • Posts: 0 bacardipr05

    That is true Pat…i said throughout April not the whole season though..lol..Chooch will get 85% of the starts and the 15% when he dont he’ll be called in at the 7th…especially if we are down that game

     
  • Posts: 0 BART SHART

    Prediction: John Mayberry hits 30 homers.

     
  • Posts: 0 George

    My wild prediction: one of The Dipsy’s trade proposals will actually come to pass. :-)

     
    • Posts: 0 Chris

      If one of his proposals come to pass that means we just won a very lopsided deal. I’ll take it.

       
  • Posts: 0 Brooks

    Chooch a career year? Well, sorry it won’t take much. Chooch will settle to his 250-265 BA, 5, perhaps 7 hrs – nothing special.

    Phils out of contention by mid July? Trading Hamels? Treasonous speak there Brian.

    I like what Nick said, I do think the Fish will implode that the personalities will kill each other.

    And young Gallen makes sense once again. The Phils will sign Hamels and likely for the inflated market value 22 to 24 mil per year.

    I’ll say Junior hits 25-28 hrs with almost 500 atbats. I’ll say Poly is out of the lineup by mid July and Wiggy takes his spot at 3rd, hits 17 hrs (or so) and out performs Poly at the plate.
    I’ll further say that Pence has a career year (the Phils desperately need it!) and when Howard does come back the Phils play close to .700 ball and take the division for 6 in a row.

    Lee for the CYA, Halladay & Hamels in contention. Worley cannot duplicate his frosh season and for those that know me, I’ll give Cheeseburger some mustard with 14 wins.

    Phils win 93 and take the division.

     
  • Posts: 5152 Lefty

    Avatar of Lefty

    Raul Ibanez playing half his games with the short porch in Yankee stadium will hit more home runs (total) than Giancarlo Stanton (total) playing at the new park in Miami. Don’t know what this has to do with the Phillies, but it’s bold, you got to admit that.

    I like Corey’s prediction about the Mets too. Those new fences will change everything.

    Can you tell I’m big on ballpark factor?

     
  • Posts: 0 bacardipr05

    Chooch hit .302 in 2010 so a career year would be great for him and the Phillies. As far as HR’s no one on this blog is expecting the long ball much from Chooch. Any HR’s he hit is just extra gravy. This offense was never suppose to be centered around Ruiz like the Braves center it around McCann, which in it itself is a not the best strategy as Pat pointed out Catchers wear down as the season progresses. Chooch has for the most part been good at getting that clutch hit something desperately needed on this team. If we can get that and a .280 BA from him it would be great….

     
  • Posts: 2990 Chuck A.

    Avatar of Chuck A.

    Wow. Some of these are pretty bold. So let me add a few more:

    1) It wouldn’t surprise me to see one of the 3 aces go down for a significant stint on the DL….BUT… Worley/Kendrick/Blanton step up big-time to keep the rotation stable.

    2) I’ve said it before, but I think Hunter Pence will have a HUGE year and will finish in the top 10 for MVP.

    3) Ryan Howard comes back sometime mid-season but is a non-factor until September where he helps the Phillies secure a playoff spot.

    4) Notice above I said “playoff SPOT”. The Phillies do NOT win the division (that honor goes to the Marlins) but they do get one of the Wild Card spots, winning the one-game playoff and advancing to the Division Series where they advance in 4 games.

    5) Phillies advance to the World Series after winning the NLCS in 6 and win a hard-fought battle against the AL Champion Angels in 7 games, being carried by Howard and Chase Utley, who also returns mid-season and does virtually nothing big until the Fall Classic when he wins it on a walk-off in the 9th. Chase…..YOU ARE THE MAN!!

    That bold enough for ya??

     
  • Posts: 79 branderson925

    Avatar of branderson925

    Bold Predictions:

    Blanton stays healthy the whole year and notches 12 wins

    Pierre steals 30 bags. (Has the potential but will he get the play time?)

    The Dodgers & Blue Jays make the playoffs

    Gio Gonzalez of the Nats has an ERA between 4.15 and 4.5. Brad Lidge has a solid year in DC =]

     
  • Posts: 0 Dave P

    My bold prediction…how about Worley having a lower ERA than Matt Cain?

    Saying Worley has a sophomore slump is not a bold prediction, guys.

     
  • Posts: 971 betasigmadeltashag

    Avatar of betasigmadeltashag

    First off Nick how is it a bold prediction to say Reyes is going to miss time on the DL that happens every year, and Hanely is going to have a bad atitude and cross Ozzie, that is the safest prediction you can make.
    Now Brian that is a bold prediction, wrong but bold like you are channeling AFW, and saying the phillies will lose just so you can come back and say “I told you so”
    My bold perdiction JMJ plays majority of the games between LF, 1B ;and spelling Vic in center hits 285 with 30+ HR and 100 rbis moving to Clean up by May with Hunter behind and Vic in front with JRoll lmoving back to the lead off spot. Phillies win 100 games again with 2 out of 3 aces having over 20 wins (Doc 21 Cole 20 Lee 18)
    Now that is going out on a limb, the chances of all that happening probably not so good but it is out on a limb.
    To say the Marlins are going to implode is not bold it is kind of expected
    Hunter having a career year again almost expected if he can handle being the center piece of an offense until Ryan comes back again not that bold.
    Outside phillies bold the Blue Jays win the AL east Red Sox fininsh behind Baltimore and the Yankees and Red Sox Miss the playoffs with Blue Jays winning the division Tampa one wild Card and Angles the other and Texas repeating out west
    again probably wrong but bold right

     
  • Posts: 0 schmenkman

    Bold prediction: Victorino has an even better year than in 2011, when he was a top-5 MVP candidate until the last month.

    Jon, that’s truly bold on Ruiz, but he’s been better than mediocre offensively in recent years.

    Here are the current Phillies’ OPS+ since 2009:

    Howard 131
    Utley 125
    Mayberry 125 (369 PAs)
    Pence 122
    Ruiz 113
    Victorino 112
    Nix 104
    Wigginton 91
    Rollins 91
    Polanco 90
    Pierre 85

    (OPS+ is OPS adjusted for league and park, with 100 being the league average)

     
  • Posts: 0 Refrigerant Coils

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