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Week In Review – Halladay, Utley, Hamels

Posted by Kieran Carobine, Sun, June 03, 2012 09:56 PM | Comments: 54
Posts, Week in Review

We find ourselves at the end of another mediocre week from the Phillies.  The Phillies took two of three from the Mets before giving up two of three to the Marlins.  Lucky for us, mediocre baseball seems the slogan of the National League East so the Phillies are still not that far off.

————————–

The Good, the bad, the ugly (Wild Thing)

Chase Utley is on the move and he is heading south to Clearwater.  He will start some extended Spring Training games and eventually work himself into some rehab games.  Good news with this is that last season Utley was back in the Phillies line up just 16 days after beginning extended Spring Training.

Roy Halladay is a machine, yeah?  No matter what he goes out every fifth day and pitches, right?  Halladay is not a machine, he is man.  His latissimus dorsi was happy to point out this fact during his last start.  The Grade 1/2 strain will have him out 6-8 weeks.

Mitch Williams decided to open his mouth (surprise surprise) and chime in about Cole Hamels‘ upcoming contract bonanza which will be his free agency coming out party.  His opinion doesn’t surprise me at all, but I hope he is wrong.

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Minor League standout –

With so much going on down in the Minors it can be hard keeping track of everyone.  One guy who is making it hard to ignore his play is Kelly Dugan.  His career started off slow, with some injuries, but it seems for now he back on track and playing some good baseball.

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Game Notes -

Hamels gets 8th win

Rollins, Ruiz power Phillies past Mets

Phils outlast rain, Marlins

Hamels falters as Phils fall to Fish

Phils drop game, series to Marlins in ugly fashion

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The Phillies are still sitting at the bottom of the division at 28-27.  The fact that they are only trailing the Nationals by 3.5 games is a blessing.  This far into the season we are well past the what-ifs and if-onlys.  It’s time to knuckle up and play some baseball.  This is the team.  Deal with it.

Avatar of Kieran Carobine

About Kieran Carobine

Kieran Carobine has written 180 articles on Phillies Nation.

Kieran has been writing since 2010 and is based in Virginia Beach.

 
 
  • Posts: 0 Jeff

    Think of this. After this week we need a dh for interleague games.
    Mr utley fits the bill

     
    • Posts: 4409 Lefty

      Avatar of Lefty

      I don’t think he will be ready Jeff. They actually brought Thome in for that, don’t know if he’ll be ready either.

       
    • Posts: 7 PhillPhan12

      Avatar of PhillPhan12

      He wont be ready. Nor will he be allowed to be.

       
  • Posts: 0 bacardipr05

    There would be room still for Galvis. He can platoon with Chase and Rollins. He can also PH, PR and possibly extra innings replacement. I believe he will get his share AB’s and playing time.

     
  • Posts: 513 Bruce

    Avatar of Bruce

    Sorry..I take exception to Mr.Carobine’s description of the NL East playing as “mediocre baseball..”. Every team in the division has a winning record and verifying preseason’s prediction among writers that they all made improvements. That means the competition is of such parity that no team will run away with the division title. Right now you have a three way tie for 1st place with the Nats, Marlins and the amazin’ Mets.

    Of course, the tight race benefits the Phillies as they struggle to keep afloat their hopes for the division title and wait for the return of their two most productive hitters, Utley and Howard. It’s good news to see that Utley is no longer a dugout spectator and will go to Phillies’ camp in Florida and join Howard for baseball drills.

     
  • Posts: 2952 Chuck A.

    Avatar of Chuck A.

    Bruce – it’s mediocre.

     
    • Posts: 0 schmenkman

      Have to agree with Bruce on this one. The East is by far the best division in the NL so far:

      Records:

      East .554 (89.7 wins per 162)
      Central .464 (75.2)
      West .478 (77.4)

      The difference is even more pronounced when you look at games outside their own division:

      East .587 (95.1)
      Central .434 (70.4)
      West .460 (74.5)

      The East looks pretty dominant so far.

       
  • Posts: 0 TheDipsy

    Kieran – Why do you criticize Mitch for opening his mouth, especially when you consider the following: 1) He’s paid to talk for a living; 2) his saying it could help spur ownership to act on Cole; 3) he’s absolutely right. Don’t shoot the messenger.

    Chase – who I love – is only taking at bats. Moving from a batting cage to only at bats in simulated games is a step up, I guess. I love Chase. I hope this whole silent treatment that he has been giving everyone (whicj I resent a little), in the end, produces a guy that can play some baseball.

    The Dipsy

     
  • Posts: 2952 Chuck A.

    Avatar of Chuck A.

    schmenkman – respectfully – the Phillies are playing mediocre baseball. Maybe I should have clarified.

     
  • Posts: 0 TheDipsy

    Schmenk – I too think the East is mediocre. I watch the games. BUT within the context of the rest of the league – this may be the best division. Its not that our division is great – its certainly OK – I just think the other division has some really horrible teams. “The best house in a bad neighborhood”.

    The Dipsy

     
    • Posts: 0 schmenkman

      First, everyone who spends time on this board probably watches every single Phillies game.

      So the other divisions have bad teams. And that’s different from every other year… how?

       
  • Posts: 0 Willie

    I hope what Mitch said about Cole spurs the management. I loved watching Cole play in Lakewood and it is great to see him doing so well in the Major Leagues. On a side note Kelly Dugan is playing amazingly this season at First Energy Park and I really hope he gets his chance at the Big League Level.

     
    • Posts: 2952 Chuck A.

      Avatar of Chuck A.

      I’m sure that management couldn’t give one rat’s ass about what Mitch Williams said.

       
      • Posts: 0 schmenkman

        Yeah, couldn’t agree more.

         
  • Posts: 0 TheDipsy

    Schmenk – its not different from every other year. My point should be this: all the truly lousy teams are in other divisions. Our division has no really good team but no really bad team – yet. Our “parity of just above averageness” makes for a good argument that we are the best division in the NL. Not trying to be contentious – respected poster – just my view.

    The Dipsy

     
    • Posts: 0 schmenkman

      Understood, I’m just saying I don’t get your view.

      When the East teams are on a 95-win pace against everyone else, it seems to me that they only look mediocre because they’re beating each other up.

      98-69 outside division (against good, bad, and indifferent)
      60-60 within division (will always be .500 obviously)

       
  • Posts: 0 TheDipsy

    Lookit – this is where we are headed: RAJ doesn’t have the money to sign Cole. Not that he would sign him to 7/175 but he doesn’t have the money to even get close. I would guess that ownership will not authorize him to spend the money it would take to make what Cole would consider a competitive offer in view of the current landscape. Botton line: To sign Cole, if they really want to, will require ownership to authorize RAJ to go through the cap.

    SIDENOTE: When your goal is to win a WS, which is why anyone should own a baseball team, and you have more money than almost every other team in baseball, you gotta spend that sh!t. I KNOW there’s a tax, I KNOW there is a limit somewhere, I KNOW its not my money, I KNOW other teams will hate you. As I tell people sometimes: “I’m not in business to be liked – but I am in business”. We have an advantage – we’re not exploiting it. In the end, who gives a damn if Bud Selig or whoever is sore. Hell, we’d be giving money to other teams. Jesus. Enough of this cap sh!t.

    The Dispy

     
    • Posts: 2952 Chuck A.

      Avatar of Chuck A.

      It’s only 8 o’clock in the morning but I will certainly drink to that!

       
      • Posts: 7 PhillPhan12

        Avatar of PhillPhan12

        Lol. True. But the way we have been playing im surprised we have not all been drove to alcoholism.

         
    • Posts: 0 c schreiber

      I couldn’t say it any better. We must sign Cole or trade him now while is value in at it’s apex with his situation.

       
      • Posts: 804 schmenkman

        Avatar of schmenkman

        He will not (and should not) be traded while the Phillies are in the race. And the Phillies will be in the race past the trade deadline.

         
  • Posts: 0 Psujoe

    Coles a very good pitcher, but he’s not even among the top 15 for starters era in the NL. No way anyone giving him 7/$175.

     
    • Posts: 0 Jeff Dowder

      His contract will be based on his career body of work, not what his ERA is on June 4. He’ll get Sabathia dollars (at least).

       
    • Posts: 2952 Chuck A.

      Avatar of Chuck A.

      No. I would say he’s in the Top 10.

       
  • Posts: 0 Psujoe

    Cain contract with 1-1.5 more per year if Cole wants to stay. $21, $21, $22, $22, $23, $23 if vested like Cain

     
  • Posts: 1189 Manny

    Avatar of Manny

    No way in hell that the NL East is “mediocre.” It certainly is the best one in the league and 2nd in MLB (AL East being the best one so far). When all 5 teams in a division have a winning record, you can’t rationally argue that the division is mediocre.

     
  • Posts: 0 Psujoe

    Nl east is the best division in the NL.

     
  • Posts: 0 TheDipsy

    Joe – Cain signed one year before he was to hit the market. Cole is gonna HIT the market. 7/175.

    The Dipsy

     
  • Posts: 61 GM

    Avatar of GM

    Records by division against non-divisional opponents.

    Division
    NL East 98-69 0.587
    AL East 84-61 0.579
    AL West 69-74 0.483
    AL Cent 72-84 0.462
    NL West 69-81 0.460
    NL Cent 76-99 0.434

     
  • Posts: 2952 Chuck A.

    Avatar of Chuck A.

    When the last place team in the division is 28-27 and only 3.5 games out what does that say about the first place team?? The Nats aren’t exactly playing dominating .667 baseball . Sorry, but the division is mediocre….or should I say that there are 5 mediocre teams in it.

    But so what. The Cardinals were mediocre last year as well until it really mattered the most.

     
    • Posts: 0 schmenkman

      Look at it this way. If the East teams didn’t have to play each other, they would AVERAGE a .587 win% (95 wins out of 162).

       
  • Posts: 4409 Lefty

    Avatar of Lefty

    You guys are looking wins and losses instead of stats. You wouldn’t do that with a pitcher to tell you if he’s good, why with a team? There are many ways to do this, but for simplicity, let’s just use OPS and ERA.

    OPS
    Cardinals .787
    Rockies .776
    Dodgers .746
    Mets .727
    Braves .723
    Brewers .722
    DBacks .721
    Phils .720
    Reds .718
    Marlins .709
    Nats .705
    Astros .700
    Giants .697
    Cubs .689
    Padres .645
    Pirates .630

    ERA
    Nats 2.95
    Pirates 3.24
    Giants 3.27
    Dodgers 3.27
    Reds 3.44
    Marlins 3.61
    Phils 3.81
    Cards 3.95
    Padres 3.96
    Astros 3.99
    DBacks 4.07
    Braves 4.17
    Mets 4.25
    Cubs 4.28
    Brewers 4.34
    Rockies 5.07

    My conclusion, I come down on the side that says the NL East is mediocre.

     
    • Posts: 1189 Manny

      Avatar of Manny

      Take it away, schmenk.

       
    • Posts: 0 schmenkman

      Lefty, using the stats you chose:

      OPS
      East .717
      Cent .709
      West .717

      ERA
      East 3.77
      Cent 3.88
      West 3.93

      So the East is tied for highest OPS, but gives up many fewer runs.

      Just as you (essentially) used runs allowed for defense, you could have used runs scored for offense:

      Runs scored, runs allowed, and run differential:

      East 4.22, 4.09, 0.13
      Cent 4.06, 4.19, -0.13
      West 4.16, 4.33, -0.17

      Again, the East is far ahead, and obviously if you excluded the intra-divisional games the differences would be MUCH starker.

       
      • Posts: 4409 Lefty

        Avatar of Lefty

        Now you’re making better comparisons. There is just too much luck that goes into winning a baseball game- to use wins to compare “divisions”. Bad Calls by an ump, weather, BABIP, managerial decisions, park factors etc. etc.

        You could make the case, as Chuck did that for individual teams it’s all about the W’s and L’s, and he’s right, that’s how we crown champions. But we’re talking divisions here, and the complications that go into that. Schedules with 18 games v the Rangers as opposed to against the Twins for example. Yet no one would consider the AL West the best division at 69-74 .483

         
      • Posts: 0 schmenkman

        I had a typo in the East numbers. Should be…

        Runs scored, runs allowed, and run differential:

        East 4.23, 4.05, 0.18
        Cent 4.06, 4.19, -0.13
        West 4.16, 4.33, -0.17

         
  • Posts: 2952 Chuck A.

    Avatar of Chuck A.

    Lefty, with all due respect…..YES….I AM looking at W-L. Because, at the end of the day that’s what counts. The team with the most wins in the division wins that division. And the team with the most wins in a series wins that series. I really couldn’t care less what the Phillies OPS and ERA are in the World Series just as long as they WIN that series.

     
    • Posts: 4409 Lefty

      Avatar of Lefty

      Everything you said is quite correct my friend. It’s why the Marlins can be middle of the pack, yet be so tough to beat. (not to mention lack of major injuries)

      But I really think when comparing which division is best, other tools are needed.

       
      • Posts: 1189 Manny

        Avatar of Manny

        By the end of a 162-game season, a TEAM’s win-loss record is a good measure of how good it is. It is a big enough sample size. Pitchers are a whole different story.

         
  • Posts: 4409 Lefty

    Avatar of Lefty

    Manny, Agreed- A team’s record is a big enough size-(and stats can lie as much as records)

    But I’m looking at posts that are comparing divisions, not teams. Think of it this way, if you removed the Texas Rangers from the AL West and swapped them with any other team in any other division, wouldn’t it change the way the comparison looks? What if the Phillies, Braves, Marlins and Nats had to play them 18 times instead of the Mets?

    I copied this from Schenkman’s post above, – didn’t check for accuracy, but I trust him implicitly.
    AL
    East .587 (95.1)
    Central .434 (70.4)
    West .460 (74.5)

    Is the AL West really the second worst? Or does every team there have to play the Rangers 18 times. That’s why I don’t think W’s and L’s, or winning percentage of a division is the right barometer.

     
    • Posts: 0 schmenkman

      Those are actually the NL divisions (not AL), and they are the records when playing teams outside their own division:
      – the NL East has won .587 of the games vs. NL Central and West (and the few against the AL)
      – the NL Central has won .434 of the games vs. NL East and West (and the few vs. AL)
      – the NL West has won .460 of the games vs. NL East and Central (and the few vs. AL)

       
      • Posts: 4409 Lefty

        Avatar of Lefty

        You know, you posted two sets of numbers and of course, I copied the wrong one! Okay so here’s the good one, and use the Dodgers (best record in the majors) instead.

        East .554 (89.7 wins per 162)
        Central .464 (75.2)
        West .478 (77.4)

        But if the Dodgers were in the east can we least agree that the East would be stronger? And that it may make the league appear less strong if they were beating up on the existing teams? That’s the reason I think to compare divisions you need more than W%.

         
    • Posts: 61 GM

      Avatar of GM

      When looking at these divisional records, it is important to remember that the games within the division always have a .500 record. Using your example, when the Phillies, Braves, Marlins and Nationals play the Mets; the NL East would always be .500 because there is a winner & loser within the division.

       
  • Posts: 0 psujoe

    Dipsy, Cain signed an extension for 2013-2017 @ $20 Million per with a vesting option for 2018 for $21 Mil, (buyout $7,5), Call it 5 years 107.5 if he doesn’t vest in 2018, 6/$121 if he does. Not sure how they allocated the $5 billion bonus.

    I say give Cole 2013-2017 @ 22 Million per with the same vesting option and buyout. but @24 mil. 5/$118.5 or 6/$134. No pitcher is getting 7 gaurenteed for $25 per especially when his era isn’t in the top 15 in his own league.

     
  • Posts: 0 psujoe

    RK PLAYER TEAM GP GS IP H R ER BB SO W L SV HLD BLSV WHIP ERA
    1 Brandon Beachy ATL 11 11 72.1 46 21 15 23 57 5 4 0 0 0 0.95 1.87
    2 James McDonald PIT 11 11 71.1 48 19 17 20 71 5 2 0 0 0 0.95 2.14
    3 Gio Gonzalez WSH 11 11 66.1 40 17 17 28 84 7 2 0 0 0 1.03 2.31
    4 Stephen Strasburg WSH 11 11 65.0 51 20 17 17 79 6 1 0 0 0 1.05 2.35
    5 Ryan Vogelsong SF 9 9 61.0 49 17 16 26 46 3 2 0 0 0 1.23 2.36
    6 Johan Santana NYM 11 11 68.0 49 20 18 21 68 3 2 0 0 0 1.03 2.38
    7 Clayton Kershaw LAD 11 11 74.1 55 22 20 19 64 4 3 0 0 0 1.00 2.42
    8 Chris Capuano LAD 11 11 68.1 49 23 19 25 61 7 2 0 0 0 1.08 2.50
    9 Johnny Cueto CIN 11 11 71.0 71 22 20 18 46 5 3 0 0 0 1.25 2.54
    10 Anibal Sanchez MIA 10 10 66.2 54 23 19 17 67 3 3 0 0 0 1.07 2.57
    RK PLAYER TEAM GP GS IP H R ER BB SO W L SV HLD BLSV WHIP ERA
    11 Matt Cain SF 11 11 79.0 58 24 23 15 73 6 2 0 0 0 0.92 2.62
    12 Lance Lynn STL 11 11 68.1 53 21 20 24 63 8 2 0 0 0 1.13 2.63
    13 R.A. Dickey NYM 11 11 73.2 61 23 22 17 70 8 1 0 0 0 1.06 2.69
    14 Wade Miley ARI 11 8 59.2 55 21 18 16 36 6 2 0 0 0 1.19 2.72
    15 Jordan Zimmermann WSH 10 10 64.1 59 22 20 11 44 3 5 0 0 0 1.09 2.80
    16 Cole Hamels PHI 11 11 77.0 64 25 24 16 80 8 2 0 0 0 1.04 2.81
    17 Carlos Zambrano MIA 11 11 73.2 53 24 23 29 56 4 3 0 0 0 1.11 2.81
    18 Ryan Dempster CHC 9 9 59.0 49 21 19 19 54 0 3 0 0 0 1.15 2.90
    19 Barry Zito SF 11 11 66.1 55 28 22 28 39 5 2 0 0 0 1.25 2.98
    20 Cliff Lee PHI 8 8 57.0 48 19 19 10 54 0 2 0 0 0 1.02 3.00

     
    • Posts: 804 schmenkman

      Avatar of schmenkman

      Hamels does well in the fielding-independent ERA estimators, which focus on things he can control:

      FIP: 12th
      xFIP: 5th
      SIERA: 4th

      2011:
      ERA 6th
      FIP: 8th
      xFIP: 5th
      SIERA: 5th

      2010-2012:
      ERA: 4th
      FIP: 10th
      xFIP: 2nd
      SIERA: 2nd

       
      • Posts: 804 schmenkman

        Avatar of schmenkman

        In other words, for the past 2+ years, Hamels has had the lowest xFIP and SIERA of any NL pitcher not named Halladay.

        And his ERA is behind only Kershaw, Halladay, and Josh Johnson.

         
      • Posts: 0 psujoe

        I’d need to learn more about those stats, but Grienke has the best xFIP in the NL and no way is he the best pitcher out there. Lee’s xFIP is much better than Hamels as well. Maybe I’m a dinosaur, but era relative to the other players in the league is the most meaningful stat to me.

         
      • Posts: 0 schmenkman

        Joe, what you’re actually saying is that there’s no way Greinke has been the best pitcher so far this year, and I don’t know how you can know that.

         
  • Posts: 2952 Chuck A.

    Avatar of Chuck A.

    Under normal circumstances Cole Hamels probably wouldn’t get close to 7/175. But this isn’t normal by any means. The Dodgers have a TON of money to spend and the WILL make a strong push for Hamels if he hits the market. The Phillies know it, Cole knows it, his agent knows it, all of baseball knows it. I wouldn’t want to be Ruben Amaro right now.

     
  • Posts: 0 TheDipsy

    psujoe – respected poster – Cole ain’t taking that. Cain decided to manage his risk and sign a year early for less money. Obviously, your team tries to wrap you up a year early so they can get you cheaper. What the Giants gave Cain is not what Cain would get on the open market as a free agent. Cain has set the bar at 21.5m when you sign a year early. Cole and Cain are even in my mind. Soooooooo. Cole must think he’ll get at least 3.5m more per year once the suckers start going crazy this offseason. And they will. Time will tell. I think that if Ruben wants to sign him than he’s gotta come with at LEAST about 6/145. IMO.

    The Dipsy

     
    • Posts: 0 psujoe

      I thought cain just signed this year? Didn’t both Cole’s and Cain’s contract go through 2012?

       
  • Posts: 0 psujoe

    I guess all it takes is one and if the Dodgers are willing to go 7/$175 then bye bye Cole. If Cole truely believes he can get 7/$175 then the Phils are out of it. They’re not going to go 7 years+the rest of this year.

    I guess Halladay and Lee were ultimately more willing to leave $$ on the table than Cole if that’s the way it plays out. Oh, well.

     
 
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