Hot Stove: Phillies Offer Pagan Four Years
Posted by Ian Riccaboni, Fri, November 30, 2012 11:06 PM | Comments: 65
Rumors, Transactions
Could we see this celebration in Philadelphia? Photo: AP
Fresh from the desk of Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal, the Phillies are believed to have offered center fielder Angel Pagan a four year deal. The 31-year old Pagan hit .288/.331/.440 with eight homers and 29 steals in a bounce-back 2012. His 2012 line was just slightly better than his career line of .281/.333/.424. Pagan has seemingly emerged as the Phillies’ premier center field target as the team believes it can commit to Pagan and fill holes at third and in the bullpen. Rosenthal believes the Giants have also offered Pagan four years.
Analysis: Pagan’s 2012 was a bounce-back year from an out-of-the-ordinary extraordinary 2010 with the Mets. Pagan has faired well on the basepaths at a 78.98% success-rate and has played above-average defense in center for his career but really only three full and one half season under his belt with several partial seasons scattered across seven years. Four years is way too long of a commitment, in my opinion, for a player that has only had success in three seasons and is already 31.
Posts: 0 wbramh
Ehhh!
Posted: 11:21 PM on November 30, 2012
Posts: 0 Matt
This is making my soul hurt.
Posted: 11:44 PM on November 30, 2012
Posts: 0 bacardipr
Im cool with this depending on the money.
Posted: 11:54 PM on November 30, 2012
Posts: 0 Jeff
Hopefully not a bust like pence was. Still like to see Shane back. They still need corner outfielders brown and Mayberry aren’t going to cut it
Posted: 11:57 PM on November 30, 2012
Posts: 0 Skylar
*scratching my head* as to why you’d say Pence was a “bust” when he was our leader in HR when he was traded ( but yet, you’d like Victorino–who pretty much just gave up even really trying, to come back for us )
Posted: 03:02 AM on December 1, 2012
Posts: 0 George
Still like to see Shane back? Vic had a bad season and is also just as old as Pagan. He’s being pursued by seven teams, and will likely cost just as much as Pagan.
Pagan might be “meh” to a lot of people, but besides Bourn, who will cost tons of money and a draft pick, Hamilton, who will probably cost more, is an injury risk, and is probably better suited for LF, or a trade, which will cost needed players/prospects, Pagan is as good or better than the other free agent CFers.
Posted: 09:45 AM on December 1, 2012
Posts: 1077 EricL
Shane Victorino is better than Angel Pagan.
Angel Pagan put up a 0.9 fWAR season in 2011. Shane hasn’t had a year in which he put up less than THREE TIMES THAT since 2006, which was before he became a full-time player.
Victorino also has more power and hits LHP much better than Pagan (although Pagan hits righties a little better than Shane does)
Posted: 12:34 PM on December 1, 2012
Posts: 0 George
Sorry, Eric, but I don’t go only by WAR. Victorino had a bad season, didn’t have good lefty/righty splits (which have been getting worse) and finished the year worse than he started it. Pagan had a decent year. It’s hard to say who might be declining the fastest, but it appears to be Victorino at this point. It’s also hard to say who will get the biggest payday, but there does seem to be more interest in Victorino, except by the Phils, who probably know him best as afr as how he fits in, his current abilities, and how they might pan out in a couple of years.
I’m not totally against Victorino, but I do feel he’ll be less steady than Pagan.
Posted: 08:08 PM on December 1, 2012
Posts: 0 schmenkman
For what it’s worth, the Bill James projection model, based on their age and recent seasons, expects Victorino to have the slightly better 2013:
Pagan …….. .277/.332/.403 (.735 OPS)
Victorino …. .269/.338/.418 (.756 OPS)
Posted: 09:59 PM on December 1, 2012
Posts: 0 GG
Can someone, ANYONE, get the keys away from Ruben Amaro Jr.
Posted: 12:02 AM on December 1, 2012
Posts: 0 Tz
You’ve got to be kidding me. So much for right handed power…
Posted: 12:19 AM on December 1, 2012
Posts: 0 George
Please name all the free agent center fielders who have good right handed power.
Posted: 09:46 AM on December 1, 2012
Posts: 1077 EricL
Shane Victorino.
Cody Ross (if you consider him a CF)
And Josh Hamilton (he doesn’t bat from the right side, but he hit .291/.333/.520 vs. LHP last year)
Posted: 12:37 PM on December 1, 2012
Posts: 0 hk
I think he’s referring to BJ Upton and is upset that the Phils did not get him.
Posted: 12:38 PM on December 1, 2012
Posts: 0 George
I don’t consider Ross to be a center fielder, and Hamilton is better suited for a corner. I’ve already given my views on Victorino, who has some power but isn’t a true power bat. He’s also a switch hitter, not a pure righthanded hitter. Of course that’s nitpicking.
And to hk, your assumptions PISS ME OFF. Why don’t you ask me what I think instead of assuming what I think. Maybe you’d actually learn something true about my feelings about BJ Upton, which are as follows: the Braves paid too much for him, and therefore I’m very happy the Phils didn’t sign him. He has power, but a low BA and OBP.
Posted: 08:18 PM on December 1, 2012
Posts: 0 hk
George, relax. My comment was not an assumption of what you were thinking, it was a response to your “Please name all the free agent center fielders who have good right handed power” comment. I believe that Tz, not you, was complaining that they didn’t sign Upton and now they have to settle for a CF without RH power (like Pagan).
Posted: 08:05 AM on December 2, 2012
Posts: 0 George
Sorry about that, hk. It did appear at first that you were responding to my comment, and not that of Tz.
That said, it is still very dangerous to assume the thoughts of someone else. Maybe Tz was frustrated, maybe not.
Also, your response to my “p—-d off” remark still indicates that you’re reading something a little strange into my asking the names of all the power-hitting CFers. It was a simple question, answered simply by EricL, who did it without any assumptions about what anyone was thinking.
Posted: 10:57 AM on December 2, 2012
Posts: 0 Bob in Bucks
For relatively low money Pagan will play a good centerfield. But he is no power bat. That is going to have to come from the corner outfielders or the third baseman. I don’t see that this year but better to secure the defense up the middle and get a solid player.
Posted: 12:36 AM on December 1, 2012
Posts: 0 Jeremy
Hamilton Please! Just saying!
Posted: 01:20 AM on December 1, 2012
Posts: 0 Nick Lovello
Really? Another 30+ year old free agent signing? Have we not learned our lesson yet?
Posted: 01:20 AM on December 1, 2012
Posts: 0 robert
dude if we didnt get upton(didnt want him anyway) all other free agents that are good are 30+ not much they can do about that
Posted: 08:35 AM on December 1, 2012
Posts: 0 JMills187
Youk at 3rd and Hamilton in rf, Ruf/Brown Lf
Posted: 01:24 AM on December 1, 2012
Posts: 0 wbramh
Yeah, if they get Hamilton for right and Youk at 3rd than they can afford to have less power in center. At least Pagan gives them some above-average defensive talent, but this is a team in dire need of run production. A healthy Hamilton brings them 140 RBI and no other free agent this year has that capacity. If they don’t spring for Hamilton, they’re going to have to make a trade for talent that approaches Hamilton’s numbers and that would likely cost them the only thing they have to offer – a starting pitcher on the level of Lee or Halladay.
I’m not convinced “Babe” Ruff should be anything more than a pinch-hitter (more a hazard in the field) and despite some long-ball success after he was brought up, he’s still far from a proven and prevailing talent against major league pitching, especially considering he’s no longer a young prospect. I wish Brown would show some growth. It’s hard not to look at him and see the athletic potential but the finer points of the game are things that athleticism alone cannot buy.
Posted: 02:15 AM on December 2, 2012
Posts: 0 bacardipr
Pagan is only 31 so its not too bad. Raul was what 35 when he signed.
Posted: 02:11 AM on December 1, 2012
Posts: 74 Tom
Not what I wanted to hear! Don’t see how Pagan makes this team better!! Is he better than Shane? Is he the RH power bat that we really need? Is anyone really excited about this proposition?
Posted: 02:34 AM on December 1, 2012
Posts: 1077 EricL
To answer your questions: No, No, and Not Really, but there’s not a lot of available OF that would really excite me, to be honest.
Posted: 12:39 PM on December 1, 2012
Posts: 0 George
EricL, I’m pretty sure Pagan Is an improvement over Mayberry, and therefore would improve the team. (Mayberry could assume the sub role he’s more capable of.) The second part is debateable, and the third part I totally agree with. There just aren’t any guys out there that excite me, either.
And all the experts said what a great crop of free agent outfielders would be available! I looked at the list early on and my reaction to the whole thing was “meh.” The only thing worse was the pool of 3rd basemen.
Posted: 08:27 PM on December 1, 2012
Posts: 0 Nick
This is a great addition especially if this allows for other additions to the lineup and bullpen. Pagan is not a superstar but he is a good player that can switch hit, be a true lead off hitter with a little bit of pop at least and best of all will not break the bank. He’s only 31 that’s not bad at all and is somebody who can get on base. I love this move especially if the Phils go out and get a Right handed power bat at 3B or in LF, plus a veteran set up man. Quit whining about age with the Phillies being old enough, what the heck difference does it make if the Phillies signed a guy 3-4 years younger, our window to win is now so better do all you can to take advantage of it
Posted: 03:19 AM on December 1, 2012
Posts: 0 hk
I’d prefer 3 years, but I agree with you that 4 for Pagan would not be the end of the world if – and it’s a big if – the dollars are reasonable (maybe $11M per year). The other benefit of Pagan vs. Bourn is that Pagan does not cost the team their 1st round pick in the June draft.
Posted: 09:04 AM on December 1, 2012
Posts: 0 brooks
Angel made 4.8 mil last year and according to article, has been offered a 4 year deal by the Giants too. Would he be a good fit on the Phils? Perhaps.
Still have a huge need though, for a big gun. If the money is reasonable (is it ever now a day?) I would fee pretty decent about this acquisition.
Posted: 08:15 AM on December 1, 2012
Posts: 0 robert
he takes three drug test a week and has not failed, he has bounced back strong fromn a past that should have killed him….we all have problems we r all human and make mistakes…dont mention alcohol like u dont drink any…..so f*ck and this ignorant a$$ comment like your perfect. grow up.
Posted: 08:38 AM on December 1, 2012
Posts: 0 Ryne Duren
well robert. that was rather blunt! but i do agree with your comment as far as his testing , and
(so called problems) i think he’s beyond that except, for people who keep reminding him of it!
i don’t care what they want to spend for any free agents. i feel as though a lot of commentors must be certified CPA’s . worrying about the bottom line all the time. if they want to spend and go over the cap they’ll do it. i don’t worry about the money stuff. i’d love to have a thumper like him in the order. my biggest problem with what they do spend is. his age, and length of the contract. like i said i don’t care what they spend as long as it doesn’t hamper them from making other moves. and basically that’s what the other guys here are actually talking about in terms of money. but MY biggest problem with JH is the fact that he’s another lefty.
and as far as your comment on being perfect and growing up? i’m 62 and will never grow up! lol as far as being perfect? that i am! i’m perfectly imperfect! lol put it short i’m a perfectly immature old fart!lol
Posted: 12:16 PM on December 1, 2012
Posts: 0 George
If you’re worried about Hamilton being lefthanded, you should read EricL’s comment earlier, or better, I’ll just quote part of it to make it easier:
“… he hit .291/.333/.520 vs. LHP last year…”
Posted: 08:46 PM on December 1, 2012
Posts: 0 wbramh
I would love to see Hamilton in right. He’s a superb talent at bat (even against lefties), an above-average fielder (if put at a corner) and remains one of the premier players in baseball.
But as far as alcohol and drug demons go, addicts don’t really ever get past it. The lucky ones manage to keep a step ahead of it. As a free agent (who won’t cost the team equal talent in another position) I believe Hamilton is worth that chance, but let’s not fool ourselves, he’s a risk and nobody knows that better now than Josh Hamilton himself.
Posted: 02:51 AM on December 2, 2012
Posts: 0 zoltek
lol @ the free agents over 30… yea the 23 yr old free agents are just everywhere. … now you know why young talent is worth so much
Posted: 08:39 AM on December 1, 2012
Posts: 3456 Lefty
SInce there are now three open roster spots, I’m pretty certain there is more than one piece is in play. Pagan could be a nice piece if paired with the other needs. Also, since trades are not out of the realm of possibility, there could be more roster spots opening. We could see wholesale changes that include Pagan.
It’s also possible that we could see very little movement, which is not always a bad thing, 3 of last year’s playoff teams did very little last offseason.
So, for those that are concerned that a Pagan signing means they won’t be able to get some right handed pop and a reliever, don’t be. This could be the just the beginning. And in my opinion, a real good one defensively. When you spend like the Phils have on pitching, you gotta have guys (particularly up the middle) that can really get after, and catch the baseball.
Posted: 10:24 AM on December 1, 2012
Posts: 0 wbramh
I agree that Pagan could be a nice piece if paired with other need(s), but in the absence of good 3rd baseman (beyond Youk) with ample power the only obvious choice is Hamilton in right field.
I don’t believe the Phillies can afford to sit pat with just Pagan added to their starting lineup. He’s only an answer to the team’s (every team’s) need for defensive talent in center and probable some on-base percentage improvement in their lead-off slot.
This team is desperate for power, even if that means adding another left-handed hitter like Hamilton. If I recall, his numbers aren’t bad against lefties which is more than you can say for their current middle of the order.
Posted: 02:28 AM on December 2, 2012
Posts: 504 \"Big Ed\" Delahanty
Four years is too long for Pagan, considering he only had one or two really above average seasons. Unfortunately, it doesn’t seem the team wants to offer Victorino a short term deal. It is ashame the team is stick with Nix’s contract, as I think Nate S. is the better fielder, and although he lacks power, is a slightly better hitter. I truly think Amaro is gonna surprise us all and sign Hamilton. Not sure if in onboar with that. Who knows though. Just have a lot of holes to fill and the market isn’t that great. Go Phils!
Posted: 10:35 AM on December 1, 2012
Posts: 3456 Lefty
I hope they don’t do that. How can they fit another over 20m player on the roster and have enough for everyone else.
Posted: 10:40 AM on December 1, 2012
Posts: 1077 EricL
Depends. If they feel their next TV contract is going to be somewhere in the Dodgers’ range (not that high, obviously, but in the $4-5 billion range?) then they might not have a problem taking on a lot of salary for the right pieces.
Posted: 12:42 PM on December 1, 2012
Posts: 3456 Lefty
No way to know I guess, but think about it, they probably have to give him at least Howard money right? 5/125. Then hope the TV thing works out, which is not a sure thing. Suppose all these networks that are presently paying the big money begin to look like bad investments, then everything changes.
Posted: 12:54 PM on December 1, 2012
Posts: 0 http://www.r4kaartr4i.org
"Ignore" signal was repeated on a bicycle "ex-convict"? How do you become the violation? I wonder is not that many people think you need much even run a red light on a bicycle, is stopped by police at best, be noted. But I might be going to come to an end also "heaven" http://www.r4kaartr4i.org http://www.r4kaartr4i.org
Posted: 07:53 AM on March 6, 2013
Posts: 504 \"Big Ed\" Delahanty
I’d be happy with Pagan for thee years, the more I think about it, as long as the money is reasonable and it allows us to still fill the set-up man spot and possibly third. Anyone know if Reynold is available as a short term fix at third? Heard the Orioles might let him walk.
Posted: 10:40 AM on December 1, 2012
Posts: 3456 Lefty
Reynolds is officially free. I think (not sure) he made 7.5 million last year, and he’s no Polly defensively at third. I wonder what his price range is now?
Posted: 10:43 AM on December 1, 2012
Posts: 0 George
Reynolds is probably worse than Wiggy at third. I’d like to own the mineral rights to any of their hands.
Posted: 08:36 PM on December 1, 2012
Posts: 0 hk
Reynolds fielding in 2011 and early last year was so atrocious that Baltimore moved him to 1B / DH.
Posted: 11:54 AM on December 1, 2012
Posts: 2 brianj
reynolds had 26 errors in 114 games at 3rd in 2011. his avg is low also. he hits homeruns and thats about it. no, thanks.
Posted: 12:18 PM on December 1, 2012
Posts: 2 brianj
i know vic had a bad season this year, but is pagan really any better than him? i’m thinking they just want a new face and players always become popular when they play for a world series team. vic has better power #s.
Posted: 12:57 PM on December 1, 2012
Posts: 0 schmenkman
Pagan and Vic are about the same. One advantage Vic has is he hits lefties well, which some people think the Phillies need for more balance.
Posted: 01:11 PM on December 1, 2012
Posts: 504 \"Big Ed\" Delahanty
Thanks, Lefty. I know Reynolds isn’t the greatest fielder or overall hitter, but the guy can crush the ball with power when he is in a groove. Maybe we can get him cheap. I’m not sold on Youk. Too many injuries, and we just let Polly go because of that. RAJ has some tough decisions. Glad I’m not a GM. Lol.
Posted: 10:59 AM on December 1, 2012
Posts: 0 brooks
Although Reynolds is a stiff both on the field as well as the bat, probably he more than anyone was the catalyst for the Orioles drive in August and September and nearly destroyed the Yanks single handedly by hitting 7 hrs against them. Reynolds hit 23 hrs for the year, 9 in September (although he batted .231) and 6 in August (hitting .275).
Reynolds saved Ryan Howard from the indignity of being identified as the single season strike out king by whiffing over 200 times in 3 consecutive years (his high was 223 K’s in 2009). We would hate seeing Reynolds in a Phils uniform, really.
Posted: 05:15 PM on December 1, 2012
Posts: 504 \"Big Ed\" Delahanty
Lefty, I agree with you on Hamilton. When the guy is on he is phenomenal, but he brings more than the average risk to a team with his addictions, injuries, and price tag. I applaud his efforts to quell his demons and still rank as a top player in the game, and I’d love to have him as a Phillie, but the price and risk seem to be too great. Although when RAJ wants someone he usually gets them – good, bad, or ugly.
Posted: 11:07 AM on December 1, 2012
Posts: 0 wbramh
Hamilton certainly doesn’t come without his own physical risks – and personal demons, and I’m sure whoever signs him will have ample clauses to protect the team in case those issues return. Than again, he’s a lot less a risk to a new team as a free agent than he would be if a team had trade away existing talent for his services.
The price tag may still be too high vs risk but on one thing everyone can agree, when Hamilton is firing on all cylinders there are few better at any position.
Posted: 02:39 AM on December 2, 2012
Posts: 0 Psu joe
Pagan, Swisher and a setup pitcher like uehata or Adams. Just enough money to stay under the 2014 cap.
Posted: 11:21 AM on December 1, 2012
Posts: 3456 Lefty
Works for me, what is Swisher supposed to be asking now? And Ed is right, 3 years would be better for Pagan, but if they want to outbid the Giants they may have to go 4.
Posted: 11:34 AM on December 1, 2012
Posts: 440 Bruce
I hope Pagan turns down reported offer by Amaro. I want the ‘Flyin’ Hawiian’ who creates havoc on the basepath with dynamic speed and a 3 time gold glover in CF. Pagan? What do the Phillies gained with him that Victorino does not offer? Victorino is better than Pagan and probably cheaper.
Posted: 05:56 PM on December 1, 2012
Posts: 0 SouledOut1
Try Alphonso Soriano in RF for 2 yrs, platoon JMJ/Brown in CF (Brown is most productive when he plays CF), platoon Ruf/Brown in LF. Reynolds would MASH in CBP! I like the thought of his whiff, whif, MASH in the lineup!
Posted: 02:16 AM on December 2, 2012
Posts: 0 schmenkman
Reynolds would likely see a dip in his stats at CBP. Both Chase Field and Camden Yards are much better for RH home run hitters.
Posted: 02:32 AM on December 2, 2012
Posts: 3456 Lefty
Gotta disagree here Schmenkman, I realize there are a lot of factors that go into it but most of these are way out no matter the wind direction etc. In fact the balls to the right side look like they would not go out if you overlay Chase Field.
Not that I’m campaigning for Reynolds, I don’t think that would be a good move at all defensively.
http://hittrackeronline.com/detail2.php?id=2012_2488&type=hitter
Posted: 08:42 AM on December 2, 2012
Posts: 0 schmenkman
As you allude to, there is more than fence distance that goes into whether a ball leaves the park (humidity, wind, etc.), but in general, RH batters are helped more by Camden Yards and Chase Field than by CBP. Could Reynolds be an exception, can you factor in more than one of his seasons? It’s possible.
Posted: 09:28 AM on December 2, 2012
Posts: 0 SouledOut1
@Sch, how do u figure that stat since the Phils have been Lefty power heavy for the past half decade so the home run rate for Righties will be skewed low. Plus the left field walls are 329, 330, and 333 feet at CBP, Chase Field, and Camden Yards, respectively.
Posted: 02:51 AM on December 2, 2012
Posts: 0 schmenkman
Park factors are calculated by comparing the stats by both teams in (say) the Phillies’ home games with the stats in their away games. So same teams, same hitters, same pitchers in both situations.
And when you do that, RH hitters hit slightly fewer home runs at CBP than in the Phillies’ away games. However both Chase and Camden Yards have boosted HRs by RH hitters. Look for the park factors on the right side of these pages. The factors at this site are 3-year averages:
PHI: http://www.statcorner.com/team2.php?team=143&year=2012
ARI: http://www.statcorner.com/team2.php?team=109&year=2012
BAL: http://www.statcorner.com/team2.php?team=110&year=2012
You can also see individual years’ stats at ESPN (single years aren’t big enough samples for park factors, so they are usually quoted as 3 or 5 year averages):
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor?sort=HRFactor&season=2009
Posted: 03:15 AM on December 2, 2012
Posts: 0 schmenkman
SouledOut, also the “Runs” park factors at the links above show how each park affects overall hitting.
Posted: 03:20 AM on December 2, 2012
Posts: 0 SouledOut1
Well regardless of who the 3B stop gap will be for now, I’m looking forward to Asche. Hopefully he has a good 2013 in AAA.
Posted: 03:38 AM on December 2, 2012
Posts: 0 Tom
We are scraping the bottom of the barrell! This guy is just average. we need somebody with power.
Posted: 10:30 AM on December 2, 2012