Hot Stove: Burning the Midnight Oil
Posted by Ian Riccaboni, Sun, December 09, 2012 12:27 AM | Comments: 54
Rumors, Transactions

The ball is in Asche's hands to win third base in 2014 according to Jayson Stark. Photo: Jay Floyd
Fresh off of my mother-in-law’s holiday choral concert, I’m back and ready to report on the latest from the Hot Stove in a special Midnight Update!
Something “Big” Coming
The biggest Philadelphia-related news of the day was obviously Michael Young being acquired by the Phillies. The second most notable piece of information in that category was this tidbit passed along by Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports. Passan’s source indicated that the Phillies were ready to do something big, anything from pursuing Josh Hamilton or making a late run at Zack Greinke. Greinke finalized a six-year, $147 million record-setting contract tonight with the Dodgers, so that one is likely safe to rule out.
2014′s Starting Third Baseman? Asche. For Now.
From the “Card Subject to Change” category, Jayson Stark tweeted today that folks within the Phillies organization recognize that Young is not the ideal solution at third base but was the best option among what was available, noting that many are hopeful Cody Asche will be ready for 2014. No pressure, Cody!
Ellsbury for Lee – Who Says No First? The Phillies.
In a nugget that got lost in the world of transaction madness, CSN’s Jim Salisbury reported that the Red Sox offered Jacoby Ellsbury in a deal for Cliff Lee. Ellsbury struggled with injuries in 2012 that limited him to just 74 games. The Red Sox were told by the Phillies, per Salisbury, that the Phillies are not interested in separating their trio of Lee, Roy Halladay, and Cole Hamels. In the same piece, Salisbury noted that the Phillies attempted to simultaneously acquire Josh Willingham the same day they executed the Ben Revere deal, that the Phils are “seriously interested” Ichiro Suzuki, and “have long liked” Cody Ross.

















Posts: 0 LaPhil
Really hoping something big is signing Swisher 5/78mil.
Posted: 12:51 AM on December 9, 2012
Posts: 0 rc
Nick is consistently good in reg season and consistently really bad in postseason. big sample sizes. Got the monkey off his back against us (philly luck) in the 2009 ws with a critical double (and a follow up Hr) in critical Game 3 but sadly for him the monkey jumped back on since. When I ask myself is that worth it for a 5 year , 75 million contract the answer is no. Throw in the 16th pick and it’s a fatter no.
Bad avg, bad risp, bad ops, bad with RISP in postseason, really bad.
For a much shorter and smaller deal, it might be worth a shot.
Posted: 02:45 AM on December 9, 2012
Posts: 0 rc
did I mention swisher is bad with RISP in postseasons? 11-71 in last 19 playoff games with 3 doubles, a solo HR, and 4 RBIs…been in many postseason series.
1-15 in 2006 ALCS, 0 Runs, 0 Rbis
3-20 in 2009 ALCS, 2 Runs, 0 Rbis
2-15 in 2009 WS, 3 Runs, 1 Rbi
2-22 in 2010 ALCS, 3 Runs, 1 Rbi
3-12 in 2012 ALCS, 0 Runs, 1 Rbi (that was a useless RBI in 8-1 clincher for Tigers and after he was 2-18 in ALDS)
I believe that’s all of his ALCS and WS numbers. Obviously we arent guaranteed to get to the playoffs but with the price and his age it’s troublesome
Posted: 03:18 AM on December 9, 2012
Posts: 0 hk
While Swisher has played in a lot of post-season games when compared to many other current players, 181 post-season plate appearances is a relatively small sample size on which to judge someone who has had > 5,000 regular season PA’s. Swisher’s post-season BABIP is .210, so I am not too sure that his past post-season production is predictive of his future post-season production. Having said that, I do agree with you that I would only want to see them sign Swisher to a shorter deal (3 years, maybe with a 4th year vesting option that would be dependent upon Swisher producing enough in the 3rd year to be worthy of getting a significant number of plate appearances). Since Swisher is looking for a Werth-like deal, it seems unlikely that he’ll be a Phillie.
Posted: 07:47 AM on December 9, 2012
Posts: 0 rc
Nope
Posted: 09:08 AM on December 9, 2012
Posts: 1078 EricL
Hamilton, please. I’ll take back everything bad I said about the young deal if they can land Josh Hamilton.
Posted: 12:56 AM on December 9, 2012
Posts: 275 Jeff of Nova
So agree with you but with greinke signing, means the Rangers are all in on Hamilton
Posted: 07:51 AM on December 9, 2012
Posts: 0 Andrew from Waldorf
Big as in the big piece isnt hitting 4th every game? even vs lefties?
I am holding out hope now for a “grand” decision.
A “commen sense” move by management?
The chances are slim.
Thome is probably still hanging out waiting for an offer.
Posted: 01:10 AM on December 9, 2012
Posts: 0 Ken Bland
My man. Happy holidays.
I thought of you during the time when Girardi did whatever he did with ARod during the post season. Figured you were getting into a manager not waiting for a big stick to come through.
Posted: 10:10 AM on December 9, 2012
Posts: 0 CS
We’ll see.
Posted: 01:54 AM on December 9, 2012
Posts: 0 SouledOut1
I don’t like Swisher esp as of late. He’s been looking so lost at the plate and not seeing the ball well. It’s to the point where he’ll make himself look dumb by taking a nice breaking pitch for a strike, then shake his head and look at the ump as if to say “get you’re eyes checked, blue.”
A Swisher signing would fall in the same category of overpaid mediocrity as Pagan/Victorino and borderline B.J. Upton.
A trade for Justin Upton, however, is a different story. He’s young and worth the money. Or go for broke and put Hamilton and his accountability partner in right field for 4 years.
Posted: 03:26 AM on December 9, 2012
Posts: 0 bacardipr
Trading Lee now wouldnt be the best idea i dont think. That would leave them with just Cole and a questionable Doc. I never considered Zach up to this point in same league as Doc, Lee, Kershaw and company.
Posted: 03:40 AM on December 9, 2012
Posts: 0 bacardipr
Swisher is out pricing himself. If not he probably would been signed for now.
Posted: 03:44 AM on December 9, 2012
Posts: 0 SouledOut1
Swisher’s perceived value IMO comes from the blue pinstripes he wore for the last few years.
Posted: 03:53 AM on December 9, 2012
Posts: 1078 EricL
To be fair, Swisher is a pretty good hitter, at least in the regular season.
But I don’t think he’s worth the $17-18 million for 5 years he’s asking for, and he’ll cost the Phillies their 16th overall first pick as well. That’s too much to give up for a guy with his skills – a very good player, but not a complete game changer.
Just some notable Phillies picks around 16:
Cole Hamels (17th in 2002)
Doc Halladay (17th in 1995)
Chase Utley (15th in 2000)
Posted: 04:35 AM on December 9, 2012
Posts: 275 Jeff of Nova
My guess is we will end up with Ross, I really want the big splash with Hamilton, this lineup would be scary with him, Howard, and Utley all regaining health and form. I know, I know some think Howard is washed up… I am not one of them and think they another 2-3 good years left if they can put the injuries behind
Posted: 08:00 AM on December 9, 2012
Posts: 2533 Chuck A.
Ok…so some of you are whining and complaining that Michael Young was acquired…for one year…but yet you want to sign Josh Hamilton….an injury and personal issues risk…for some crazy contract that they would probably end up regretting. I don’t get it.
Posted: 08:22 AM on December 9, 2012
Posts: 0 phil
Well said Chuck A. I also don’t understand why Mr. I’m better than everybody on this site because I can read fangraphs wants Hamilton over swisher when swisher is more consistent, doesn’t get injured, doesn’t have a history of drug abuse, and knows how to handle a big market. Their numbers aren’t that far apart and once you factor in that Hamilton’s offensive line won’t look as impressive coming from right field as it does in center then swisher begins to look a lot more appealing for his contract demands compared to Hamiltons
Posted: 08:50 AM on December 9, 2012
Posts: 0 hk
On this one we agree. Unless Hamilton ends up signing for a lot less (in both years and dollars) than is being rumored, it seems like he’ll be overpaid. Hamilton projects to get an AAV of $20M ($25M?) for 4+ years and I would think it’s a reach to assume he’ll amass much more than 14 WAR (3.5 per year) over the next 4 years. Plus, Hamilton will also cost the signing team their 1st round pick.
Posted: 09:04 AM on December 9, 2012
Posts: 0 EricL
The rumors have been that teams are reluctant to go long term and there were reports that Seattle’s discussions with him were in the 20-25 AAV range with a contract length of 3 years. If you can get Josh Hamilton for 3-4 years, with a mutual option or something added on, that’s a great opportunity to add an MVP caliber player.
Hamilton is a lot better than Nick Swisher is why I would want him. You don’t give up your 16th overall pick for a guy who is a decent all-star type player. You can give it up if it gets you an MVP-level player.
Posted: 12:35 PM on December 9, 2012
Posts: 0 hk
The last two years, Hamilton has accumulated 8.5 WAR whereas Swisher has accumulated 7.7 WAR. In 2010, Hamilton put up an outrageous 8.4 WAR, but that was accumulated due to career highs in BABIP, fielding runs and base-running runs. Other than that outlier season and his injury-plagued 1.4 WAR 2009 season, he’s basically been a 4.2 WAR player. Other than Swisher’s .249 BABIP / 1.3 WAR 2008 season with the White Sox, he’s basically been a 3.8 WAR player. Since they’re 6 months apart in age and Hamilton comes with other risks (that he relapses and/or his earlier abuse of his body might lead him to decline sooner), I just don’t see Hamilton as being worth 50% in AAV than Swisher when he seems to have been worth 10% more in WAR so far.
Posted: 01:06 PM on December 9, 2012
Posts: 1078 EricL
Part of my thinking here is that if the Phillies go after Hamilton it means they’ve adopted my “don’t give a crap about the luxury tax until after you sign your new TV contract” philosophy, which means I don’t really care about the money at that point. I care about the money (like I do in the Young situation) only insofar as it pertains to limiting the Phillies options at improving at other positions, so if they’re committed to staying under the luxury tax cap I hate the Young move, and the Hamilton move would never happen. But if they’re willing to blow through the CBT threshold, then I don’t really care about the Young move anymore and I’d much rather them go for the better player if they’ve ignored the artificial financial constraints they’ve put on themselves.
Also, I view MVP-caliber players as being exponentially more valuable than players who are merely very good. Because the 25 man roster is limited, WAR isn’t necessarily interchangeable. One guy who puts up 8 WAR is much much more valuable than two guys who put up 4 WAR apiece. So, while, yes, Hamilton’s MVP year was an outlier, he’s got that kind of talent that can single-handedly carry teams for long stretches of time.
Yes, Hamilton’s best career year was, like most players’ career years, heavily luck induced. But the fact that he’s capable of putting up an 8+ WAR season while Swisher is just barely a 4-WAR player really tips the scales for me.
Posted: 01:38 PM on December 9, 2012
Posts: 275 Jeff of Nova
So will Swisher Hk,
I hope you are not referring to me, I am all for the Young signing, think it has great upside for the low money they have to pay… Plus they got a great clubhouse guy
Posted: 09:07 AM on December 9, 2012
Posts: 0 hk
No, I was agreeing with Phil that Hamilton would be a bad deal, but I disagree with Phil and you on Young. I think they paid too much – Jon Daniels has been trying to get rid of him for a while (addition by subtraction) – in both dollars and in giving up one of their top 15 prospects for what projects to be a marginal upgrade at best over Frandsen.
Posted: 09:14 AM on December 9, 2012
Posts: 2533 Chuck A.
And people complain about the Howard contract…. Hamilton’s would be WORSE when you factor in the whole drug abuse thing along with his injury risk.
Not saying that I wouldn’t want a healthy Josh Hamilton in my lineup. Dude is a game-changer. But at what cost???….
Posted: 09:09 AM on December 9, 2012
Posts: 0 EricL
Since 2008 there’s been one year in which Ryan Howard has been better than Josh Hamilton – 2009. Hamilton is also 18 months younger than Howard and the reports are that the contracts that have been talked about have been in the 3-4 year range, which is a good length commitment for the risk.
From 2010-2012 Ryan Howard has missed 120 total games. Josh Hamilton has missed 84. Over that same time period Ryan Howard has amassed 0.8 rWAR. Hamilton has amassed 15.3 rWAR.
I just don’t think they’re anywhere near the same risk.
Posted: 12:44 PM on December 9, 2012
Posts: 3475 Lefty
I’d be happy with any of the available RH OF’s available. It’s true they’s have to give up the pick for Hamilton or Swisher(S), but they’d get the most production out of those two. But Cody Ross is not a bad fall back at all.
They will have to overpay to get any of them, don’t delude yourselves, that just the way the market is shaping up. Shane, Hunter and Upton’s deals are a killer in terms of the comparables the agents will be asking for, there is nothing they can do about that. They have to pay the piper to compete.
In trade I think they’d have to make an absolute steal to get guys like Willingham or Granderson (who IMO- really wouldn’t fit as a LHB) but if they can get someone to take spare parts for those type guys, that would be great too.
IMO- The only thing that would be disappointing, (for the Phils FO and for us) would be if they are not able to secure any of them.
Posted: 10:18 AM on December 9, 2012
Posts: 0 EricL
Personally, I see Cody Ross as just a very slightly better version of John Mayberry, whose numbers were inflated by Fenway Park last year, which means that whatever contract he signs now will be one of those “buy high” situations.
Take a peek at his H/R splits from last season – and while you’re at it, check out his L/R splits too. He just doesn’t impress me at all.
Posted: 12:46 PM on December 9, 2012
Posts: 3475 Lefty
Clearly he, like many batters before him, was aided by playing in Fenway. His career home numbers are still far apart from his road numbers, so maybe he just likes playing at whatever his home field is. As far as L/R you are absolutely right, he’s comparable to JMJ.
And don’t get all SABR condescending with me. :-)
Posted: 02:49 PM on December 9, 2012
Posts: 0 Ken Bland
News sources have reported with regularity what Ian (Hardest working non beat writer in the game*) Riccasomethingorother mentioned here. The Red Sox called the Phils asking for Cliff for Ellsbury. As strictly an academic point, all I know is Curt Schilling had tweeted that the Phils called the Red Sox on the subject. The Red Sox calling makes more sense, but why would Curt report it the way he did. The way it was reported, Madson declined the mutual option for 10 some mil with the Reds, which seemed goofy since they were supposedly still interested in him as the closer. Gotta take these rumors and process ‘em to determine where you take your opinions with them. Rule number something or other in rumor mongering.
I haven’t had much thought on Swisher, still don’t. Kind of a que sera, sera deal.
Hamilton was much the same when several months back, somewhere in Phillie blogging, conversations broke out on him at the Bank. I didn’t think the scenario would develop. I’ve offered some comments on him in recent weeks, more projecting Phillie interest in him than how he’d fit. The comment I feel worth mentioning now is a lot of observors seem to be either hoping or thinking they will sign the dude. While I thought from Ruben’s open mindedness they were more open to him than was being reported, I still think it’s a close to huge longshot.
Ruben was tight lipped on Cliff 2, and latersaid he didn’t feel like building hopes, and I guess we have to consider that possibity in this venture, but I think people hoping for Josh are hoping for a real underdog scenario. All told, I believe he’d be an excellent sign, but there’s nothing overwhelming that lends to hope. But we should thank the Seattle Mariners for their participation in the stakes game and wish them well in their post Figgins era endeavors.
I might write something about Roy Oswalt later today. I can feel the baited breath in process.
* I can imagine a minimum of 3 other Nation staffers working as hard as Ian, so the moniker of hardest working non beat writer not in the game is just something I spontaneously coined, with at least at little adhesive. But it’s a self proclaimed pretty cool nickname, and a pleasure to give it to Ian.
Posted: 10:29 AM on December 9, 2012
Posts: 0 Double Trouble Del
I expect RAJ to think “outside the box” and offer Roy a tidy little incentive laden one year deal.
Posted: 12:17 PM on December 9, 2012
Posts: 0 Bart Shart
Bobby Abreu is available as a free agent. He would come cheap and we could all celebrate Bobby Abreu Day in July this year. He still knows how to work a count.
Posted: 11:49 AM on December 9, 2012
Posts: 316 Ian Riccaboni
Ken – I appreciate it. The rest of the team works pretty hard, too, but I take most to the off-season news and the roster moves. Appreciate the shout out and will keep pumping out the content knowing there will be folks who take the time to read it!
Posted: 12:26 PM on December 9, 2012
Posts: 2533 Chuck A.
Interesting article on csnphilly.com from none other than Corey Seidman:
http://www.csnphilly.com/baseball-philadelphia-phillies/phillies-talk/Young-like-Jeter-can-bounce-back-offensi?blockID=811519&feedID=693
In particular:
“So if Jeter rebounded, why can’t Young? The advanced stats community always stresses that one-year samples can’t be indicative of a player’s true talent level or future, but a giant portion of that same community is dismissing Young as a player who’s done based on his 2012.
“Does it really make sense to put more stock into Young’s poor 2012 than the dozen seasons before it? Young hit .311 with a .819 OPS from 2003-11. Few are expecting him to perform like that with the Phillies, but something like his 2010 is realistic. In that season Young hit .284/.330/.444.
We can discuss defense another day, and it is acknowledged here that Young’s hot corner D is not on the same level of Placido Polanco’s or Pedro Feliz’s. But the 2010 version of Young — which could realistically return — would be a significant offensive upgrade over what the Phillies have gotten from their third basemen the last six seasons. Since 2007, Phillies third basemen have hit .263 with a .323 OBP and .370 slugging percentage. Those numbers are pretty much the same as Young’s bottomed-out 2012 season.
We can discuss defense another day, and it is acknowledged here that Young’s hot corner D is not on the same level of Placido Polanco’s or Pedro Feliz’s. But the 2010 version of Young — which could realistically return — would be a significant offensive upgrade over what the Phillies have gotten from their third basemen the last six seasons. Since 2007, Phillies third basemen have hit .263 with a .323 OBP and .370 slugging percentage. Those numbers are pretty much the same as Young’s bottomed-out 2012 season.
So the best-case scenario is that Young, like many others before him, is rejuvenated in his mid-30s after a down season and is for the Phillies some semblance of the player he was in his nine full seasons.
The worst-case scenario is that he gives them the same hot corner offense they’ve gotten since 2007.”
Posted: 02:35 PM on December 9, 2012
Posts: 1078 EricL
There’s a lot to disagree with there, but I’ll just pick on the last line:
“The worst-case scenario is that he gives them the same hot corner offense they’ve gotten since 2007.”
Well, partly. The worst-case scenario is that he gives them that terrible offensive production except Young also provides terrible defensive contributions too. When the Phillies trotted out light-hitting guys like Feliz and Polanco, they were able to compensate for their inability to hit with their ability to field. If Young can’t hit, he is useless. He has no such redeeming defensive value. And so the worst case scenario, really, is that he performs as bad (or worse!) than last year and ends up costing two trade chips and financial flexibility that is needed to fill in other holes in the rotation and corner OF positions. That’s a pretty bad scenario, and actually makes the team worse than it was last year.
Posted: 02:49 PM on December 9, 2012
Posts: 275 Jeff of Nova
Eric, I thin you are exaggerating a bit there, Young is not
Posted: 03:01 PM on December 9, 2012
Posts: 275 Jeff of Nova
Eric, I think you are exaggerating a bit there, Young is not hindering them financially he is a low risk high reward.
The 3rd base group sucks this year. That includes Youklis for 12 mil his last year stats plain old sucked. The bottom line is RAJ did the best with little. He did not give up that much, this prospect that many are all of a sudden speaking so high on….. Really he has not been on any radar and Lindblom sucked for us period. So Chuck is pointing out that this is not horrible. We have to do some odds here the odds are the favor that Young returns a little lower than his prime but as low as last years numbers. So 284/330/444 is way better than most of our lineup next year. I am fine with that and I am sure most Phillies will be
Just saying
Posted: 03:08 PM on December 9, 2012
Posts: 1078 EricL
I agree, generally, that Young is likely to be better than last year offensively but worse than his career numbers.
My response to Corey’s article, however, is pointing out the worst-case scenario, in which he doesn’t rebound offensively. It’s misleading to compare Young to Polanco and Feliz because, as I said, while they were both light-hitting 3Bs, they were also both excellent defensive players, and provided a lot of value in their defense.
So when one says the worst case scenario is similar to when the Phillies used those guys at third, that’s wrong, because the worst case scenario is that Young hits like they did AND plays terrible defense, which is worse than the total production the Phillies got out of Polanco/Feliz.
As for the money, all indications are that the Phillies are not interested in surpassing the luxury tax cap. That means they currently have about $17 million dollars in cap space. That’s not enough to sign any of the 3 best OFers on the FA market, and it’s barely enough to sign the best pitchers on the market. For a team with a huge question mark at the #4/5 rotation spot, and in both OF corners, if the Phillies are going to try to stay under the luxury tax limit they’re now going to be forced to skimp at those other positions of need. All of Amaro’s recent comments point to this scenario:
From Jerry Crasnick’s twitter feed:
“Amaro says #phillies will consider an injury-comeback guy or a “low-risk, high-reward type of guy” for back end of rotation.”
“Amaro adds that #phillies want a veteran presence for bullpen and would consider doing a “little bit more” to improve the OF.”
So they’re going to address the Worley-sized hole in the rotation by adding a “injury comeback guy” and are going to “consider doing a little bit more” in the OF. That screams of being cheap to me, and my only explanation for such frugality is that they don’t feel they have a lot of money to spend on those positions, which means that the six million you’re paying Young could go a long way at those other positions. If the difference between adding John Lannan to your rotation and adding Edwin Jackson to the rotation is that extra few million, then Young’s money is causing them to go cheap at other positions.
Posted: 03:50 PM on December 9, 2012
Posts: 275 Jeff of Nova
Wow computer going whacked…. I meant “most of our lineup last year” and I meant the odds are in favor of him being someone between last year and his prime years.
Posted: 03:11 PM on December 9, 2012
Posts: 0 Bob Myers
Yes, Josh Hamilton, and I think his issues are being blown way, way, out of proportion by the same people who hate on Tim Tebow. Hamilton is a great clubhouse guy, and extremely disciplined and willing to be held accountable.
He is the only available player who would catapault the Phils from 3rd in the division to FAVORITE. Add Greinke, and I’m ready to buy World Series tickets.
Ok, back to dreaming…..
Posted: 03:49 PM on December 9, 2012
Posts: 1078 EricL
Sorry Bob, Greinke already signed with the Dodgers.
Posted: 03:50 PM on December 9, 2012
Posts: 0 Ken Bland
That might be some risky reasoning. The second part, about making 1st place reasoinable is pretty cool, because he is a D-I-F-F-E-R-E-N-C-E-M-A-K-E-R on the field. But, unfortunately, that’s more of a can, as in potential. Josh bottom lined well, despite inconsistencies last year, and the Rangers didn’t win the division, and lost a single take all game at home.
But thinking the issues are bkown way, way out of proportion, that’s risky. And unfortunately
the challenge of a new environment adds to the question of how strong the support would be. This can be a tough city to play in. It can be great, of course, but real tough.
I’d like to see him here. But it’s a longshot (I think) and I’d hate to see him come here and it cause problems..
Posted: 05:15 PM on December 9, 2012
Posts: 1078 EricL
The Rangers didn’t win the division because they had approximately forty-two thousand pitchers go down to injury. Hamilton had one bad month (July), one slightly-above-average month (June), two-plus excellent months (August/September/October) and two absolutely monstrously productive months (April & May).
Posted: 05:34 PM on December 9, 2012
Posts: 0 Ken Bland
Looks to me like September and October earned ratings of plus excellent from EricL. Looks to me like those numbers, which I find more pretty good than excllent (.330 OBP out of a .245 BA, 7 dingers, .8something OPS (.873?) being called excellent is taking the same liberty of tossing around the word terrible so frequently in writings about Mike Young. It’s one thing to use terrible in describing portions of Young’s past that were terrible, but the feeling of projecting terrible into the future sure comes across (Pardon MY taking a liberty), and like a foregone conclusion. Seems pretty subjective to me. I don’t sense subjectivity as a goal from EricL’s numbers approach.
Fact – The Rangers did not win the division. An overall terrific year by Josh wasn’t enough to offset the pitching problems. So presumptions of first place in signing him are not so automatic. He’s a differencemaker, but when Bob spoke of first place (even if he did include Greinke), and it’s not even automatic with Josh, it’s a fair comment.
Posted: 06:08 PM on December 9, 2012
Posts: 0 schmenkman
In the spirit of summarizing, describing two-plus months with a combined .911 OPS as excellent seems reasonable.
Posted: 06:27 PM on December 9, 2012
Posts: 1078 EricL
Basically what schmenkman said.
Just take a quick look at what he did compared to the average player. Going by OPS+:
In July he was 35% worse than the average player
In June he was 6% better than the average player
In August he was 57% better than the average player
In September/October he was 40% better than the average player
In April he was 127% (!!) better than the average player
In May he was 117% (!) better than the average player
I think a guy who hits 40-60% better than the average player can comfortably be called “excellent.”
I’d also point out that Hamilton was nearly 6 rWAR better than Mike Young last season. (-2.4 to 3.4), but if you’ve read everything I’ve posted on the issue I’ve conceded that Mike Young is likely to be better offensively this year than he was last.
I don’t completely hate Michael Young. I just think he’s a terrible fit for the Phillies who already had a guy to play the position at 12% of the cost, and who could use that $7.2 million dollars elsewhere and would have allowed them to keep the two trade chips to use elsewhere.
Posted: 08:30 PM on December 9, 2012
Posts: 0 Ken Bland
For a team coming off an 81-81 season, this site, which covers that club is popping out more threads and comments this week than Planter’s plants units per jar. At least it feels like the same week that the hardest working quiz host not on a game show, Pat Gallen, announced he was co-hosting some Phillie quiz function tonight. So let’s turn into quiz mode, via the old Phillies don’t fade away, they just stay in our mind subject of Roy Oswalt.
The former sponsor of excitement, Roy O is….
a/ through with baseball, and consitent in his style of the last 2 years by not talking much
b/ waiting to see where the free agent chips fall and trying to cherry pick still another shot at a said to be coveted World Series ring
c/ a victim of can’t do the job, and baseball has turned him out to pasture
For most of his career, things went smoothly for Roy O. One ballclub, well paid, close to home, a club that contended enough to keep a player interested.
After a successful start with the Phils, injuries took over, and a final year of his contract resulted in the same way the Rangers relationship with Mike Young did. Too much money for what was left to offer.
Roy O’s best years a somewhat distant memory, only a few players, if that, ever disagreed with the market more on their worth. 2012 found Oswalt asking for high, and being vollied around the sport for half a year because he had this terrible flaw of wanting to be paid his worth as opposed to including the market’s worth in the formula. When he did sign, his goal of getting a Series ring seemed on a fair course although the Texas Rangers didn’t get there. Roy pitched well in spurts as close as Tokyo and Nicetown, and even in a starting pitcher starved (what else is new?) market, finds himself publicity free this winter, even at MLBTR, which generates more rumors than any 3 gossip sections combined.
So we are left to guess what’s next for Roy Oswalt. You’d think if he was working dilligently to give it another shot, we’d have heard about it. But you also would think if he was selling steaks and enjoying the laid back life, we’d have heard of that, too.
My guess is Oswalt is closer to retirement than you would think his competitive juices allow. Of course that guess, by it’s very source means he’s doing Bo Jackson quantities of sit ups each day. But I suspect he might still get an urge as the pitcher contracts add up, and spring training weather looms around the corner.
Will it be enough to take a shot at another stop, or a revisit old grounds? Put it this way.
When the Phils got Ben Revere and opened a rotation spot, I could have seen Oswalt calling Ruben a few seconds after the ink was dry. At least at 1 time. Nowadays, the Phils aren’t the odds on Series favorite that made them the prime cherry to pick 2-3 years back. The ballclubs that are, only 1 of whom will win, if it’s from that group are not in the market for a starter carrying a lot of questions, including amount of desire.
Roy O had a terrific career. You play to the level of debatable Hall of Famer, that’s terrific. But he’s either worked his way out of the game, or left it on his own. If he’s in purgatory thinking he still has a choice, I think it’s the same type delusion that was the cornerstone of is 2012 approach. But what a pitcher!
Posted: 04:17 PM on December 9, 2012
Posts: 3475 Lefty
d. – all of the above
It’s just plain over, done, cooked, history. – Unless he cherry picks and agrees to a $480 minimum deal somewhere. yeah, all of the above.
Posted: 05:44 PM on December 9, 2012
Posts: 3475 Lefty
So EricL- How much would you advise the Phillies to offer for the big guy’s services? What’s his worth in your mind? Years, dollars,and options.
Posted: 05:50 PM on December 9, 2012
Posts: 1078 EricL
Basically, the shorter the contract, the more I’d be willing to pay per year.
I’d offer something like 25-28 million for three years and an option year
Maybe something like 20-22 million for four and an option year
If it gets into 5 guaranteed years I become much less interested and the salary goes down significantly.
Posted: 08:20 PM on December 9, 2012
Posts: 0 Psujoe
Not to be a downer, but Phil’s aren’t signing Hamilton. Phil’s won’t throw away their new financial flexibility. I think they’ll see what they have in Spring training and go from there. I do see an 8th inning pitcher with experience being picked up. I’d like to see another starter, but it won’t be high in salary or years.
Posted: 09:24 PM on December 9, 2012
Posts: 1078 EricL
I’d argue that their real financial flexibility comes after the 2014 season, so long as they don’t totally screw up with 3 years of poor play and mediocrity heading into their new TV contract negotiations.
Spending $10-20 or whatever million dollars over the luxury cap right now, if it helps them stay competitive and keep their local ratings up, will pay off 100-times over when it comes time to sign that multi-billion dollar deal in 2014/15.
This is why I think they should ignore the salary cap issues and sign Hamilton, sort of like the Dodgers are doing right now.
Posted: 09:48 PM on December 9, 2012
Posts: 2533 Chuck A.
IF….and it’s a big IF…they can sign Hamilton for 3 years and no more than that… then I’m all in. With the understanding that if he becomes a problem because of his…”problem”…. then he’s out of here. Can they somehow have some sort of clause or insurance in the contract that protects them form a recurring drug issue that could adversely affect his health and thus his performance??
Posted: 10:30 PM on December 9, 2012
Posts: 0 Ken Bland
It is very, very hard to see Hamilton getting 3 years. On one or multiple 3 year offers, I would think chances are excellent Texas is able to retain him.
I’m hardly an expert on what goes into a contract, there are restrictions on incentive clauses beyond my awareness, but it would seem to me like if a club, including the Phils wants to get creative, they could pass whatever field is interested in Josh with something like this.
Guarantee 5 years at 17 million.
Include behavioral clauses related to any concerns about usage, include games played clauses to address concerns about injuries that recognize this injury concern he carries.
Allow the incentives to add up to the neighborhood of 27 mil per for the total package. This way, the player is essentially guaranteed the amount of money suggested in the themes of big bucks for a short term, with the opportunity to earn up to 130 million or so. If his probable dream is realized, and he gets that on a guaranteed basis elsewhere, more power to the guy. I’m allowing for the 175/7 that came out earlier to be considered a negotiating ploy that keeps Josh considered sane. Prince was 28 and got 9, and Josh never was Albert.
He’s 32, or will be. His age 36/37 year would be at least partially protected by incentives holding the pay down (depending on specifically what they are), and it’s not like that’s an outrageous age to commit to big bucks. The incentives don’t have to be impossible to reach, but they can protect against a breakdown.
I don’t believe he’ll be forced to sign a short term (3 year) high AAV deal. So what can actually be done to extend it with protection, and allow him the chance to make money commensurate with the talent he is makes sense. But you definitely have to pay a worthwhile base, and 85 mil doesn’t seem too bad, and it’s about 15 mil more than Seattle’s alleged offer, which seems to be a negotiation against themselves and the Rangers. I have to believe someone else will step in, or this man’s problems have really hurt him.
Now how legal this is, I don’t know. But a high enough base with incentives that can get him to top pay oughta be worth a look.
Posted: 09:12 AM on December 10, 2012