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How the Phillies Have Enough Money to Compete in Hamilton Sweepsteaks

Posted by Ian Riccaboni, Mon, December 10, 2012 09:56 AM | Comments: 9
Analysis, Mailbag

Many of the questions submitted for the PN Mailbag focused primarily on the likelihood or the ability of the Phillies to sign Josh Hamilton. Often times, it’s easier just to explain something like that with pictures. Keep in mind, this is not a ringing endorsement or anything of the like, just a nice flowchart showing that yes, the Phillies do have $21.5 million in AAV available for 2013. Thanks to my colleague Corey Seidman for crunching these numbers in his fantastic article from Thursday, which has even further explanation as to how the Phillies are this far under the luxury tax threshold. Click on the flowchart to make it larger.

Avatar of Ian Riccaboni

About Ian Riccaboni

Ian Riccaboni has written 877 articles on Phillies Nation.

Ian's athletic achievements include getting stuffed by NBA center Aaron Gray in high school and hitting .179 over four years for NYU against D-III, NAIA, JuCo, and NCBA schools. Ian hopes his athletic successes will help him achieve his dream of becoming the underground Bob Uecker.

 
 
  • Avatar of The Original Chuck P

    Loaded comment coming…

    I was not too keen on the Revere move because I thought Span was the better/cheaper option (comparing it to what the Nats paid) but after speakin with a Minnesota native this weekend, I’ve changed my tune a bit. He told me that Revere has a lot of upside – needs to get with a team that can coach him up. He thinks he has a lot of upside that Span doesn’t and getting him under control is a good idea if you can get him to play up to his potential. I was sort of surprised… didn’t think Revere had a lot of upside but apparently it’s there.

    As for Hamilton – if the numbers work like you suggest and if he’s really in play (and I think he should be – the market has softened enough that he’s a bargain piece and with that TV contract looming, we need to start thinking big) I think it’s the move that gets you over the hump. Our rotation is still capable of winning the division if Halladay can find his health but our lineup isn’t there. You throw in Hamilton and it’s clearly good enough to compete. One addition… if Michael Young plays well from the get-go, Jimmy has to be moved down in the order. I think Revere is the prototypical leadoff hitter… not sure he’s suited for the two-hole because of all the ground balls he hits.

     
  • Posts: 0 Sam

    I know I will probably get cursed out for this but what about a Delmon Young signing in the outfield he shouldn’t cost that much and he has some pop in his bat.

     
  • Posts: 1048 EricL

    Avatar of EricL

    I cannot say this emphatically enough: The Phillies should not have any budget constraints for 2013 and 2014. The luxury tax limit should not even cross their minds. They should throw every available dollar at players who they think will make their team substantially better in the next two years.

    The reason for this is simple: The Phillies current television contract is up at the end of 2014.

    They lost 33% of their television audience from 2011 to 2012. If they have two more mediocre seasons like that it will literally cost them hundreds of millions, if not a billion+ dollars over the next 20 years in the form of a smaller television contract. That comes to something like $50 million dollars a year for 20 years, on the high end.

    If they do not put the absolute best product on the field that is possible to do in the next two years, they’re costing themselves money in the long run. So, yes, they should have the money to sign Josh Hamilton because it shouldn’t matter what he costs. Get him at a shorter-length contract even if you have to overspend. The team will be rewarded for their investment in the future many times over whatever the spend in the next two years.

    I really hope they’re not going to pinch pennies today and end up costing themselves dollars down the road.

     
    • Posts: 0 Mike in NJ

      Agree 100%

      If this team misses the playoffs the next two years, they’re going to lose a TON more money in TV revenues than a couple million the next two years in luxury tax penalties, and this team TODAY is not a playoff team.

       
    • Avatar of The Original Chuck P

      Agreed, Eric…

       
  • Posts: 0 gmopro

    wanna define AAV for the readers?

     
  • Posts: 1048 EricL

    Avatar of EricL

    Not sure I see how their image would be adversely affected.

    They have a second baseman that dropped the F-bomb in a stadium full of families and on live TV after their World Series parade, they have a guy charged with cocaine possession as one of their top prospects, they have 3 guys on their 25 man roster who have been suspended for taking banned substances, and have the reputation as having one of the most vile fanbases around the country.

    Not sure how signing Josh Hamilton, a guy who has become a born-again Christian (and is very, very vocal about all of it) and has publicly battled his demons with some success would be viewed as a negative.

    But more than that, my point is that they can improve their pitching AND get Hamilton, because the price tag should be almost completely irrelevant. You’re assuming they have $20 million to spend on OF/SP help. I’m saying they should have basically a blank check to spend, so it’s not a choice between improving one position or the other, it’s that they should improve both.

     
  • Posts: 0 schmenkman

    A couple of points of disagreement:

    When they signed Polanco, he had played 142, 141, and 153 games the previous 3 years, and had hit .341, .307, .285 (since you refer to batting average).

    The only year in which Polanco was a worse hitter overall than Young’s 2012 was Polanco’s own 2012.

    But whereas Young has been either a DH or a below-average fielder, Polanco added significant value with his glove.

    We can only hope that Young will be as productive overall in 2013 as Polanco was in 2010 and 2011.

     
  • Posts: 0 schmenkman

    Matt Gelb confirmed in his article today that it was Texas who actually paid the $1.2 million.

     
 
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