Phillies Eying Left-Handed Howell?
Posted by Ian Riccaboni, Wed, December 19, 2012 05:48 PM | Comments: 14
Analysis, Posts, Rumors
Pop quiz: Which lefty reliever would you rather have? (2012 stats listed, 2013 aged season listed)
- Player A: 52 IP, 14.02 K/9 IP, 4.50 BB/9 IP, 3.18 xFIP. Age 27
- Player B: 50.1 IP, 7.51 K/9 IP, 3.93 BB/9 IP, 4.17 xFIP. Age 30
- Player C: 27.1 IP, 11.52 K/9 IP, 6.59 BB/9 IP, 3.92 xFIP. Age 26
- Player D: 31.1 IP, 11.49 K/9 IP, 4.02 BB/9 IP, 3.24 xFIP. Age 27
- Player E: 31.0 IP, 10.16 K/9 IP, 1.45 BB/9 IP, 3.03 xFIP. Age 35
- Player F: 25.0 IP, 5.76 K/9 IP, 2.88 BB/9 IP, 4.48 xFIP. Age 27
There are a lot of players on that list – of the six, five are currently on the Phillies 40-man roster and one was reportedly a free agent target. Player F is the only player whose stats indicate that he is probably not as good as the other five. Player F is Joe Savery – let’s assume everyone is OK with moving on from Savery for the sake of this exercise and move on to exhibit B.
Knowing that four of the five are already available on the Phillies 40-man, and that the Phillies have limited salary available headed into 2013, here are the estimated commitments for each of the players above:
- Player A: ~$1 million, three years of team control available
- Player B: $4-5 million per year, two to three year commitment
- Player C: ~$480-500 thousand per year, five years of team control available
- Player D: ~$480-500 thousand per year, five years of team control available
- Player E: ~$480-500 thousand per year, four years of team control available
As you can probably tell, I am intentionally leading the witnesses here. One of these players’ costs is between four and ten times higher than the other four and I have made statements already indicating which direction I would go. Player A is Antonio Bastardo, Player B is J.P. Howell, Player C is Jake Diekman, Player D is Jeremy Horst, and Player E is Raul Valdes. Late last evening, MLB.com’s Bill Ladson reported the Phillies were one of five teams that had interest in Howell. Howell has history in Philadelphia – Howell took the loss in both Games 4 and 5 of the 2008 World Series, memorably giving up a double to Pat Burrell and then a single to Pedro Feliz in Game 5. Unfortunately, that was about the last year Howell provided positive statistic value to his team.
The Phillies bullpen shined last year in getting strike outs (highest K/9 IP in the Majors) and had a nice xFIP (fifth in NL, eight in MLB) but struggled avoiding walks (fifth in NL/MLB), getting ground balls (worst in NL, 29th in MLB), and gave up a lot of home runs (fourth worst in NL in HR/9 IP, seventh worst in MLB). A lot of the struggles came early on and the team improved by cutting loose the deadweight (Chad Qualls, Savery) and finding quality arms from within their system (Horst, Diekman, Phillippe Aumont).
In the areas where the Phillies should seek improvement, Howell is not an improvement. His BB/9 IP (3.93) and his HR/9 IP (1.25) are downgrades while his 48.9% GB% is a minor improvement. Bastardo, Horst, Diekman, and Valdes are all cheaper options with years of team control with the potential to get better. The Phillies would be foolish to waste precious resources on Howell who does not present himself as an obvious upgrade to what they currently have that throws left-handed. What they have that throws right-handed has been addressed with the acquisition of Mike Adams and may have been the best opportunity to score the most bang for their buck.
Posts: 239 Jay Floyd
Examples are pretty easy to pick out, knowing they are lefties.
I really like the Phils’ bullpen next year. With 8th and 9th rock solid, barring injury, the potential of all the other names like Bastardo, Diekman, Aumont, De Fratus & others to fill out the remaining roles is tremendous. I’m looking forward to seeing a healthy Stutes shutting guys down again too.
Enjoyable post, Ian.
Riccaboni 3:16, #FollowIan, etc…
Posted: 06:02 PM on December 19, 2012
Posts: 0 Bart Shart
Eyeing J P Howell is different from buying J P Howell. Frankly, I am delighted that the Phils are eyeing all kinds of players and possibilities. We really need a strong and deep bullpen if we are to contend in 2013.
Posted: 07:12 PM on December 19, 2012
Posts: 0 George
Amen to that. The same idea (eyeing is different from buying) could also be applied to all those rumors about Ross, Wells, and Soriano.
I sometimes think it’s called the rumor “mill” because it grinds up so many fans’ emotions.
Posted: 06:24 AM on December 20, 2012
Posts: 0 gmopro
How come you dont show hits? or slugging against? Valdez looks good. Phils pen is too wild. Need more control there. Low walks, low hits and low amt of homers. That is key.
Posted: 07:39 PM on December 19, 2012
Posts: 0 CS
Bullpen with dept in both the MLB roster and AAA level. Bastardo, and most of our young players has options left I’m sure. JP Howell, Brian Wilson, brandon lyon, Valverde, talk to them all and see what we can develope.
Posted: 08:44 PM on December 19, 2012
Posts: 0 psujoe
Bull Pen is done this off season except minor league contracts. Phils Pen is stacked and has enough diversity and depth to overcome the wild Pen fluxuations Pens experience.
Posted: 09:42 PM on December 19, 2012
Posts: 0 rc
Maybe they would flip reliever+ in a trade if they signed Howell. They’d be wasting some relievers and he isn’t going to be cheap either.
Posted: 12:04 AM on December 20, 2012
Posts: 0 Bob in Bucks
The probability of rookie relievers providing the same results is low. As the league finds out more about them there weaknesses will be exposed.
Posted: 12:05 AM on December 20, 2012
Posts: 0 brooks
I am feeling like the Phils are pretty much done for the off season. So what does that leave us?
In the BP:
Paps – closing
Adams – setup
Bastardo – setup (?)
Stutes – long relief
Freaky Diekey – LR
Fill in the blanks – De Fratus, Rosenburg, Horst, Cloyd – even Petibone could have a chance in ST
Starters –
Halladay
Lee
Hamels
Kendrick
Lannan
(fill in with Cloyd perhaps?)
1b – Howard
2b – Utley (filling in Galvis)
ss – Jimmy
3b – Young
C – Chooch (start the season with Kratz, give Valle a chance?)
Utility infielders – Galvis, Frandsen
All important OF
LF – Ruf (?)
CF – Revere
RF – Brown/Nix/Mayberry/Gillies?
That is a ton riding on the shoulders of the rookie Ruf. As previous posters have commented, if our big 3 don’t come through, we are middle of the road regardless.
I have more than 25 listed here. The point is, I think that Rube and co. are done and this is what is coming north to a CBP near you.
Posted: 03:43 AM on December 20, 2012
Posts: 0 rc
You forgot Aumont…Can use him to rest Adams and keep grooming him , perfect with Adams showing him the ropes.
Posted: 03:59 AM on December 20, 2012
Posts: 0 Eric
Howell didn’t lose Game 4 of the 2008 World Series. That was the Blanton game, the blow out. I think you meant Game 3.
Posted: 09:46 AM on December 20, 2012
Posts: 0 Don M
Raul Valdes is going to win the Cy Young next year
Posted: 10:17 AM on December 20, 2012
Posts: 0 Ted
Let’s hope Reuben Amaro reads your blog.
Posted: 12:25 PM on December 20, 2012
Posts: 0 Bob in Bucks
Having been at game 3, Howell “lost” the game by hitting the first batter – Bruntlett. He was replaced (after pitching the 8th). After a steal and a throw to the OF by the catcher Bruntlett was on 3rd. Two intentional walks, Ruiz hit a swinging bunt and Bruntlett scored. Howell got the loss but it really goes to the catcher on the throw to the OF.
I consider W-L for pitchers a meaningless stat. W-L are a team stat. This goes back to when a pitcher virtually always pitched 9 innings. Those days are behind us and even then it made no sense.
Posted: 02:25 PM on December 20, 2012