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Reconsidering Michael Bourn

Posted by Eric Seidman, Thu, December 27, 2012 10:34 AM | Comments: 62
Acquisitions, Analysis, Commentary

The Phillies made something of an effort to sign B.J. Upton and pushed hard for Angel Pagan before trading Vance Worley and Trevor May to the Twins for Ben Revere.

The move gave them a young, cost-controlled centerfielder who plays excellent defense and offers top-notch baserunning. He probably isn’t a finished product yet either, which lends credence to the belief that he could consistently produce at a 3-WAR clip as he enters his prime. The move came out of nowhere and was met with some criticism, but it was a risk worth taking if the team was opposed to doling out a lucrative, long-term contract.

One centerfielder the Phillies shied away from was Michael Bourn.

The former Phillies outfielder, who blossomed into an elite player with the Astros and Braves, was set to sign a big-time contract this offseason. Best laid plans haven’t come to fruition for Bourn, a Scott Boras client, and he remains unsigned. Granted, Boras likes to wait until late in the game, but the rumor mill has virtually dried up with respect to Bourn.

He’ll find a home somewhere but he may have to settle for a one-year deal that enables him to test the free agent market under friendlier conditions next year. If push comes to shove and that scenario plays out, should the Phillies consider him even after acquiring Revere?

Michael Bourne

If he settles for a pillow contract, could we see this again?

The first issue to consider is cost — Bourn is one of the best centerfielders in baseball and will prove costly.

The shorter the deal, the higher the average annual value he will likely seek. The value of this type of deal to Bourn is in the money he would make next year and in the ability to garner a lucrative, long-term deal next offseason.

How much would Bourn cost? In all likelihood, on a one-year deal, Bourn would cost $14-$16 million.

He made $6.8 million in his final year of arbitration-eligibility last season and would certainly look for more than the qualifying offer in the $11-$12 million range.

Since early reports had him seeking a five-year deal worth $80+ million, an AAV of $16 million, a 1/$15 contract would likely get the job done for this type of pillow contract.

At this point, that pillow contract might really represent the best route. There aren’t many realistic fits remaining for a high-priced centerfielder, even one who hasn’t had a sub-4 WAR campaign since 2008 and who has averaged 5 WAR over the last four seasons. The major reason is that the select number of teams looking for an impact centerfielder filled the position via less expensive means. With Upton, a player who did prove expensive, a long-term deal was given to a 28-year old who hasn’t yet entered his prime.

Even fewer options exist now that Upton, Pagan and Melky Cabrera were signed and Denard SpanChris Young and Revere were traded.

The Cubs, Astros, Mets, Mariners and Rangers each have intriguing internal options, but players who are far from sure things. Other than the Rangers, however, none of those teams has a legit reason to go out and spend 5/$75 on anyone, let alone Bourn.

It’s doubtful that Bourn would accept a lesser long-term deal right now when a pillow contract at a high rate could allow him to unquestionably be the guy next offseason. That he has gone unsigned thus far speaks to the creativity of his potential suitors. Teams are looking at acquisitions a bit differently and showing a better understanding that getting 80% of Bourn for 30% of the price is better than paying for 100% of Bourn when even that is an unknown.

Sure, he has been above the 4 WAR threshold over the last four seasons, but he’s on the wrong side of 30 years old and lacks the requisite skills — contact rate, walk rate, power — that helped Kenny Lofton age so well. There are legitimate concerns about how Bourn will age and many teams didn’t want to take an $80 million risk to find out for themselves.

This pillow contract would push the Phillies over the luxury tax threshold, but not by much, and it’s a tough sell to the fanbase that the ownership opted against signing a 4-6 WAR player for one season because of a nominal tax hit.

The second issue is that Bourn declined the Braves qualifying offer, meaning any signing team will lose their top draft pick. While past top picks like Larry Greene, Anthony Hewitt and Zach Collier have proven to be disappointments so far, losing a first-round pick is tough to stomach. It isn’t a concrete deterrent when discussing the one-year addition of a 4-6 WAR centerfielder but it definitely goes in the ‘Cons’ column.

In the end, this could all be a moot thought experiment. It took Prince Fielder forever to sign last offseason and he still got a $200+ million contract from the Tigers. Scott Boras has tried this wait-it-out tactic numerous times before. Sometimes he gets his clients the big deals they originally sought. Other times it angers his clients and they leave him.

If Boras isn’t able to get Bourn that long-term contract he desires, the Phillies should seriously consider signing him to that one-year deal. They can shift Revere to a corner outfield spot, much like how the Twins handled both he and Span in the same outfield, and move him back to centerfield after Bourn signs a lucrative deal the following offseason.

They would start Bourn, Revere and Brown in the outfield, with Nix and one of Mayberry or Ruf as backups. The odd man out goes to the minors — or in Mayberry’s case, might be let go entirely — while Inciarte is offered back to the Diamondbacks.

The Phillies have plenty of outfield question marks as it is, but if they have the chance to add Bourn on a one-year deal, it’s worth pursuing even after solving the centerfield void by acquiring Revere. Odds are Bourn signs a big contract somewhere but this is at least some food for thought if he and Boras misjudged his market.

Avatar of Eric Seidman

About Eric Seidman

Eric Seidman has written 64 articles on Phillies Nation.

Eric offers his unique analytical perspective to Phillies Nation and is a regular contributor on FanGraphs.com.

 
 
  • Posts: 0 Don M

    I like this idea … if the goal is to make the team better, the addition of Bourn would clearly do that.

     
  • Posts: 0 CS

    It’s worth discussing it with Boras. But how many other teams would consider him on a one year deal? Also, does spending the last of our budget worth the impact he’d bring.

     
    • Posts: 146 Eric Seidman

      Avatar of Eric Seidman

      I view him as absolutely worth the remaining Phillies budget on a one-year deal. And yes, many other teams would love him on a one-year deal. This isn’t saying the Phillies would clearly get him, but rather that they should seriously consider signing him if he is willing to sign a one-year deal, even after they traded for Revere.

       
  • Posts: 0 James

    Ibanez was signed today with the mariners. Bourn is the only real above-replacement level option left on the market. Bourne’s WAR last year was 6.0(!) thats an incredible level and considering his OPS+ was 90, means hes a brilliant center fielder. Why not sign him, we really don’t have many options other than a minor-league caliber player.

     
  • Posts: 0 bacardipr

    I would consider signing him for a 1 year or even 2 year contract. All other options are pretty much gone unless the Phils initiate another trade. With Revere, adding Bourn would be adding another similar player but that may not be a bad thing. I know people have been saying this for last 2 years, but i really think next year is the last year for another WS run with (whats left) this group. I still see either the Rangers or another team signing him to a 3 year contract which i think he will gladly accept.

     
    • Posts: 146 Eric Seidman

      Avatar of Eric Seidman

      See I don’t see him settling for a 2-3 year contract until next season, assuming he signs a 1-yr deal this year and can’t get anything more next year. I would find it hard to believe that Bourn signs for anything between a 1-yr deal and a 4-yr deal w/5th yr option.

       
      • Posts: 0 F_I_J

        Borne is no longer a match for this team. He would have been before Revere was signed, but now we need a power hitting corner piece, not Borne. Like RAJ’s “no Boras at any cost” philosophy

         
      • Posts: 0 schmenkman

        I really doubt that’s RAJ’s philosophy. He can’t afford to exclude an entire segment of the player pool. But in recent cases the cost has been more than he’s been willing to spend for that particular player.

         
      • Posts: 0 Ken Bland

        Don’t for 1 second agree with F-I-J’s power hitting corner need. No best solution stands out to me anyway, but about 3 days after the Revere trade, I started thinking about a lineup of Jimmy, Revere and Bourne 1-3, and it brought back very fond memories of when the Cardinals ran billboards advertsing the “Great American Slide Show” as in Lou Brock, Bake McBride and Company.

        Forgetting the reality of money, which might work, might not (hardly my department), it’d be fun to watch. I wouldn’t be excited about it on more than a 1 year basis, but I’ve often heard the phrase “speed kills.” Nextest time I hear the phrase “power kills” will be the first time.

         
  • Posts: 0 CS

    He’s going to wait out a majority of January and I suspect make his choice within the next 4-6 weeks. The real question is do we need to spend this money on him, or wait the market out in July>

     
  • Posts: 0 Pete

    A Bourn/Revere combo in CF/RF would be the best defensive OF combo in baseball. No, Bourn doesn’t bring the power we need, but he would enable us to move Rollins down in the order w/o question and let him be a run producer.

    I personally think the whole losing a 1st round pick is overblown. As long as the Phils take that money and spend it in the international market, you should get similar return… unless I’m missing something…

     
    • Posts: 0 wbramh

      An interesting look at it and hard to argue against.
      Certainly the team has been in need of speed and talent, both defensively and on the base paths. Bourne and Revere are both likely to get on base which is more than you can say for last year’s mix. Still, I wish we had that 100 RBI right-handed power bat to drive those guys across the plate. I hope that player is Darin Ruf but he’s obviously far from a proven commodity on the big league level. I like John Mayberry, Jr. but see him as no more than a good utility player off the bench.

       
    • Posts: 0 George

      The current collective bargaining agreement limits what a team is allowed to spend in the international market, so losing that 1st round pick could mean a lot.

       
  • Posts: 0 bacardipr

    Eric soon as posted i thought about it. Should of said 4 years.

     
  • Posts: 0 CS

    Let’s look at this differently. Why didn’t the Phillies sign Bourne earlier? Is it the money? The years of the contract? Or they never really wanted him? If it was an issue of years or money then he’s in play again. If they never wanted him, then I’m wasting key strokes. I like the idea of standing pat with what we have, or going after a guy like Jeff Francour or Soriano for a right handed hitter. But really, all this talk of right handed hitters and we traded Pence? I really hope that Tommy Joseph works out.

     
    • Posts: 146 Eric Seidman

      Avatar of Eric Seidman

      No to Jeff Francoeur, unequivocally. Soriano would be nice but not for Domonic Brown. The Phils weren’t into Bourn at 5/$80 or whatever he wanted. It doesn’t mean they wouldn’t offer him less money and years or a pillow contract like this. Your keystrokes were wasted on Francoeur, not Bourn.

       
  • Posts: 0 CS

    I don’t a lot about Francour, tell me why he’s not an option. I agree on not trading Brown for Soriano, but will the cubs take anything else/less?

     
    • Posts: 146 Eric Seidman

      Avatar of Eric Seidman

      Career numbers below:

      Francoeur: .266/.310/.426, .316 wOBA, 91 wRC+
      Mayberry: .254/.313/.448, .329 wOBA, 105 wRC+

      And we can repeat this exercise over the last 3-4 seasons for Francouer instead of his career to illustrate the type of player he is now:

      Francouer 2009-12: .263/.307/.418, .312 wOBA, 92 wRC+
      Mayberry 2009-12: .254/.313/.448, .329 wOBA, 105 wRC+

      Fielding-wise they are both mediocre, despite Frenchy’s arm. Over the last four years, Mayberry has tallied 2.8 WAR in 848 PAs, whereas Francoeur is at 2.6 WAR in 2394 PAs. So Mayberry has outproduced him in 1/3 of the playing time.

      In other words, if you want Francoeur, just play Mayberry.

       
      • Posts: 2 rick burleson

        Avatar of rick burleson

        Disagree. Not a fair comparison Mayberry vs. Francoeur based on sample size. Mayberry has only 848 plate appearances vs. Francoeur’s 4700 + PA’s and you just can’t discount Francoeur’s arm. Isolate Frenchy’s 2011 line which represents 656 PA’s: 171 Hits/20 HR’s/ 87 RBI’s/ .285 BA and there is no indication that Mayberry would replicate that over a full season. I feel that Francoeur has significant more upside and is wasted in Kansas City. Admittedly Francoeur had a putrid 2012, but a move to the NL could revitalize him. He is only entering year 29, always seems to stay healthy, and is inexpensive, more of a poor man’s Jayson Werth than Mayberry Jr.

         
      • Posts: 804 schmenkman

        Avatar of schmenkman

        Interestingly, the two were born just 16 days apart. Agree with Eric, here, and I’ll add that over the three years, they’ve hit the same against RHPs, but JMJ has been much better vs. LHPs.

        And I would say there’s little indication that Francoeur could replicate 2011, either. His line drive rate was about his career average that year, but his batting average on balls in play was .323, compared to .299 for his career, indicating he had more than his share of balls fall in.

        Yes, he had a putrid 2012. And a putrid 2010. And 2008. And 2009 was also below average. He’s been a regular for 7 years, and out of those 7, two were pretty good (2007 and 2011), and the other five can be fairly described as well below average.

        Is there some chance he could have another good year? Yes, it’s possible. But he’ll also earn $6.75 million in 2013, and you have to trade something to get him. Why give up something of value, AND pay him a relative boat load (compared to JMJ), when Mayberry has been better in recent years, and chances are will be about as good going forward?

         
      • Posts: 2 rick burleson

        Avatar of rick burleson

        Thanks, Schmenkman. For context, I very much like Mayberry and his versatility in the OF and ability to play First. I think the Ruf/Mayberry platoon in LF is a nice combination to have. It is RF (Francoeur’s logical position) where I see the upside. I have been skeptical of Brown and his ability to stay healthy and I am not sure that Brown would even replicate some of Francoeur’s more mediocre numbers. 2009 performance for Frenchy is not adverse with: 632 PA’s/ 166 hits/ 15 HR’s/ 76 RBI’s/ .280. Will Brown put that line up?? I remain unconvinced. So, in considering Francoeur, who represents an economical solution in RF superior to Brown. A solution with relative youth, a plus arm, net/net defense, and speed on the bases, and more demonstrable power. KC is ready to move Francoeur. Would you part with Jiwan James & Nix/Stutes? $6.75M for a RF like Francoeur is something to consider.

         
      • Posts: 804 schmenkman

        Avatar of schmenkman

        @rick, look at their stats the last 3 years. They’ve been very similar hitters overall:

        Francoeur: .257/.306/.416 (.311 wOBA, 93 wRC+)
        Brown ……: .236/.315/.388 (.307 wOBA, 90 wRC+)

        against RHPs:

        Francoeur: .252/.293/.398 (.300 wOBA, 85 wRC+)
        Brown ……: .243/.324/.412 (.321 wOBA, 99 wRC+)

        against LHPs:

        Francoeur: .273/.342/.466 (.341 wOBA, 112 wRC+)
        Brown ……: .208/.284/.302 (.260 wOBA, 59 wRC+)

        So Francoeur is much better against the 25-30% of pitchers who are left-handers, and Brown is quite a bit better against the 70-75% of pitchers who are righties.

        Here’s one other consideration. There are projection system that use recent trends and the player’s age to predict next year. The only set published so far is from Bill James, and it has these projections for 2013:

        Francoeur: .260/.314/.418 (.308 wOBA)
        Brown ……: .274/.347/.445 (.342 wOBA)

        Even if one thinks the Brown projection is on the optimistic side, there is absolutely no way I would give up anything of value, or an extra $6 mil, to get Francoeur.

         
  • Posts: 2952 Chuck A.

    Avatar of Chuck A.

    God, I don’t know. I’m kinda mixed on this one. But I agree that if this year is considered the last sort of “all in” year with this group then maybe it’s a good idea to consider. Would Jimmy be ok with moving down in the order?

     
    • Posts: 0 wbramh

      If Jimmy’s still not okay with using his still ample talent to run out a ground ball to first then I’d rather see him batting in the pitcher’s slot where he can do less harm.

       
      • Posts: 0 schmenkman

        SMH

         
      • Posts: 0 wbramh

        My point was that Rollins and others on the team spent too much time sleep-walking through much of last season. The one incident with Rollins not running to first happened to stand out because it it turned out to be anything but a routine play. We saw that lack of hustle and inattention to basic baseball 101 frequently with this team. Lack.of pressuring infielders into potentially errant throws by running hard to first on “routine” grounders. Lack of plate discipline. Lack of attention on the base paths – lots of heads not quite in the game.
        Arguably, the ’93 team had little (or no) more depth and balance than last year’s team. They were 24 recycled overachievers and Schilling. Perhaps Ben Revere’s speed and Michael Young’s professionalism will rekindle the fire under others and a healthy-armed Mike Adams will keep them in games, but all three bring their own question marks. Crawling out of 3rd place in their division will still be tough going.
        I’d be happy just to see some spark out there.

         
      • Posts: 0 schmenkman

        “My point was that Rollins and others on the team spent too much time sleep-walking through much of last season.”

        That’s an opinion, and I strongly disagree.

        Losing makes everything look worse and magnifies problems.

        The bottom line is that for all the sloppy base running, lack of plate discipline etc., and even the absence and then struggles of Howard, the production of the 2012 offense was almost exactly the same as the 2011 offense that combined with great pitching to win 102 games.

        But the issues get magnified and remembered when you’re losing 5-4 instead of winning 4-3.

        The “spark” that you refer to is simply having fun and enjoying playing the game, and that’s hard to do when you’re falling short of expectations as a team and losing much more than was expected (either by the fans or by the team itself).

        BTW, can anybody explain what this “professionalism” is that MY has so much of? And is it something that Polanco lacked, or are we staying the same in the professionalism area at third base?

         
  • Posts: 0 CS

    And we also have to assume there is NOTHING we will want on the trade market through the season if we are to buy in the 14+ mil range on Bourne.

     
  • Posts: 0 arc

    The miamization vs. the “winnig” team
    Since the moves of the Dodgers; Labron, Wade, Bosch, Kobe, Dwight, and Nash, prospects of a Phillies dynasty have been racing through my head. I got exited at the prospects of the Phils increasing payroll, and I thought Philly sports had finally adopted the cool city mentality; we will dazzle our audience and win. I looked forward to the 2012 trade deadline, surely Amaro would make a splash…… Nothing. Okay, okay, the phils are in the big time now; increasing payroll, Cable deal looming, one of the most lurcative franchises in baseball; Hamels, Halliday, Lee, winter 2012 free agency here we come. Amaro will sign Bourn, Hamilton and Youkolis….. Nothing. When I heard that Hamilton signed in Anaheim(I remember the time the place i heard it) I froze for about 5 minutes. It was the feeling I had when I saw my girlfriend riding in some other kids car when I was 15.
    It was the feeling I had when the Eagles choked in the super bowl. ( and i dont give a flying f*ck about his drug/alcohol problems, being a lefty, or his contract demands) That was it, my dreams of a dynasty; a la Yankees, Bulls, Lakers were over. After all, regardless of the mega cable deal, who was I to dream? This is Philly; little kid brother of NY. Like they always told me, If people here wanted bright lights and a city that never sleeps they would move 90miles up the turnpike. Yes, this is the city of the NIMBYs, the boo birds, and city planning that ran Will smith and Donald Trump out of town. But I thought the Phillies would be different. I thought Amaro “got it”. Granted, baseball is not basketball, and here lies the dilemma of the two philosophies. I know baseball will not be manipulated like her cheap little sister basketball, yet, I have to ask myself; would I rather watch Rollins, Bourn, Hamilton, Upton, Howard, and Utley lose ultimately;(there will be a lot of wins in between) or this present day franchise. What about the rest of America? Will they be watching us Like I will the Angels, and Dodgers? I know ill catch a lot of flack for this post, but with Utley Howard Hamilton, I would have had an excuse to finally make my wife come with me to CBP. Silver lining? I should get straight As for spring semester.

     
    • Posts: 0 Joe

      No one with any sort of logic could really think that the phillies could sign bourne, upton and hamilton…

       
  • Posts: 2952 Chuck A.

    Avatar of Chuck A.

    arc – just what the hell are your trying to get at??

     
  • Posts: 0 Psujoe

    Not against Bourne on a one year deal, but I believe the Phil’s are done. I like what RAJ has done this off-Season. Losing the 1st pick hurts flexibility in the draft due to the way they allocate the $$$$, right?

     
  • Posts: 0 Nick C

    In a perfect world, Bourn hits 15-20 home runs a year, but if he does sign with the Phils for $15/1yr then I’d be ok with that. 2013 will prove to be a testing ground anyway, so we don’t have any reason to lock him up for more than that. Hopefully if we do get Bourn, Utley, Howard, and some other heroes hit in baserunners like Bourn, Rollins, and Revere that don’t have a whole lot of pop. I want to see the middle of the order do work!

     
    • Posts: 0 john s

      In a perfest world 15 to 20 homers? He has 22 total in 7 seasons. He might not get 20 more the rest of his career.

       
  • Posts: 0 RayK

    The problem is that the player has to WANT to come to a team (that is the point of being a free agent, isn’t it?) For whatever reason many of the ones that Ruben has beeninterested in have chosen to go elsewhere. You cannot necessarily blame Amaro for that! Some of these guys would have played one against another until they ended up where they wanted to play, and nothing the Phillies could have done would have made a difference- they would have just raised the amount that the eventual signing team would have had to pay to be the top bidder. I am satisfied with the players we ended up with. It would be nice to have a right handed power hitter, but we have options (Mayberry, Ruf) that could be every bit as good as the ones that are out there (or WERE out there before they signed elsewhere!) It is very easy to spend other peoples money. I understand that there are limits as to how far the ownership can go.

     
  • Posts: 0 George

    Going over the luxury tax to sign Bourn woud be the wrong move, in my opinion, even if it’s only a few million over. He’s not exactly the player the Phils need right now, would force Revere to LF (he doesn’y have the arm for RF) and that, in turn would force Ruf, a potential power bat, back to the minors. It would also limit the team’s ability to acquire pieces mid-season in case of injuries, the possible need to upgrade at the other outfield spot, or for a third baseman who’s quick enough to get to a grounder.

     
  • Posts: 0 hk

    Eric,

    I was against giving up the draft pick to sign Bourne for 4 or 5 years, so I am even more against giving it up to sign him for 1 year.

     
  • Posts: 0 davehist

    I think George hit it just right. Signing Bourne would not be a good move for the Phillies now that they have Revere.

     
    • Posts: 1135 EricL

      Avatar of EricL

      I think signing Jason Bourne would be incredible. He could stealthily assassinate or incapacitate the opposition’s best players before each series. Maybe distract them by strategically placing Julia Styles in a seat near the visitor’s dugout.

       
      • Posts: 0 arc

        hilarious!!!

         
      • Posts: 0 wbramh

        Years ago, I was at a Sixers game and just that sort of distraction happened. An attractive young lady (a regular) rose from her front row seat as a Pacers player dribbled by. He took one look at her and lost the ball out of bounds off his sneaker.
        I think a few fans probably lost control of something, too.

         
  • Posts: 0 Mike

    How the twins handles both him* and Span

     
  • Posts: 0 James

    The Phillies will not engage in discussions for any Scott Boras client. …. Also I don’t understand why Dom Brown is still being considered for a corner slot and Darin Ruf is not taken seriously. Despite his so-called five tools Dom Brown has no bb instinct while the less-tooled Darin Ruf has the makings of a Jeff Conine type with more power. Of course all the wizards in the Phillies Orginization know better. After all they did select Hewitt, Collier, and picked up all those prize prospects for Lee, Victorino and Pence.

     
    • Posts: 0 hk

      Considering that Boras represents many of the top players in the game and many of the top draft choices each year, not engaging in discussions for any his client would be a stupid management philosophy. On the other hand, to not overpay for any Scott Boras client (or any other agent’s client for that matter) would be a smart management philosophy. Judging from RAJ’s history and his negotiations for Ryan Madson last off-season, I don’t think either is part of the Phillies’ management philosophy.

       
  • Posts: 0 Bob in Bucks

    Bourn would take the Phil’s over the luxury tax limit so it is highly unlikely. He would give us 3 leadoff bitters when we need middle of the order bitters. Wrong move at this time. Let him take the pillow elsewhere.

     
  • Posts: 0 Mike in NJ

    What teams even need a CF now? It seems Boras priced his guy out of the market.

    While I’d generally consider any signing that gets Jimmy out of the 1 hole a good thing, I wouldn’t give up the #16 pick in the draft for one year of Bourn…no way. Besides, Bourn doesn’t do anything to give you a power bat or RH bat to protect Howard. Would that also mean an outfield of Revere – Bourn – Brown against RH pitching? That outfield would combine for fewer HRs than good corner outfielders by themselves. If you start Ruf in LF and only use Revere as late inning defensive replacement/PH/PR, the trade you made for him goes from wait and see to dreadful.

     
  • Posts: 0 Pops

    Bourn
    Young
    Utley
    Howard
    Rollins
    Ruiz
    Brown
    Revere
    Pitcher

     
    • Posts: 2952 Chuck A.

      Avatar of Chuck A.

      Like I said earlier… would Jimmy agree or willingly move from the leadoff spot? Getting Bourn would totally necessitate that but we all know how J-Roll can be…

       
      • Posts: 804 schmenkman

        Avatar of schmenkman

        Chuck, honestly — how can he be? How many Phillies regulars can you name over the past few years who fit better in the leadoff spot than wherever they actually hit in the lineup?

         
      • Posts: 2952 Chuck A.

        Avatar of Chuck A.

        Fair point

         
    • Posts: 0 rc

      Imagine Brown coming up in the 8th inning with that lineup coming up. What do you think teams are going to do? Put in a lefty, game over.

      Phillies have zero interest in Bourn. None.

       
  • Posts: 0 Joecatz

    With granderson and ellsbury both on the market next season I can’t see Boras advising a pillow deal. Someone will give him 4/60 at least.

     
  • Avatar of "Big Ed" Delahanty

    Bourn isn’t worth signing right now and losing that 16th pick for reasons that others have already stated. I say let the outfielders we have give it a shot.

     
  • Posts: 4568 Lefty

    Avatar of Lefty

    I know that someone else already asked this question, but I don’t remember who, or more importantly, if the question was answered.

    If the Phillies lose the 16th pick, because they sign a FA that received a QO, do they also lose that slot’s draft pool money as specified in the new CBA?

    If so, IMO- they should not consider Bourn for one year.

    Does anyone know the answer? I’ve been unable to find it anywhere.

     
    • Posts: 0 hk

      Lefty,

      Yes, they lose the slot money. I think that this is a main reason that no one has signed Bourn or Soriano for that matter. Boras misread that teams would go to great lengths to keep the combination of the pick and the slot money that comes with it.

       
      • Posts: 4568 Lefty

        Avatar of Lefty

        Thanks hk

         
  • Posts: 0 CS

    This new CBA had really altered the way the hot stove works itself out.

     
  • Posts: 0 Fritz

    I’m still for giving Brown and Ruf a shot until the trade deadline.There will be teams willing to trade outfielders at that point. JRoll needs to bat sixth. when Ruiz gets back he hits fifth.Charlie needs a talking to about were to hit Jimmy.

     
    • Posts: 804 schmenkman

      Avatar of schmenkman

      Fritz, I assume you would want to lead off with Revere. There’s a chance, especially if Revere can improve his walk rate, that he will be a decidedly better leadoff hitter than Rollins some day, possibly as soon as 2013.

      They got on base about the same last year (although Rollins got himself into scoring position with doubles more often):

      Rollins leading off last year: .325 OBP (.316 overall)
      Revere leading off last year: .312 OBP (.333 overall)

      Or, if you want to go back more than year:

      Rollins over the last 3 years: .325 OBP
      Revere over the last 3 years: .319 OBP

      But at this point, chances are that Revere will be the worst hitter in the 2013 lineup, and batting him leadoff will mean the worst hitter will get the most at bats.

      I would not be upset if Revere led off next year. I just don’t see why anyone would be strongly opposed to Rollins continuing to lead off, at least until Revere improves as a hitter.

      Finally, on Revere and his walks, he’s already pretty disciplined, but pitchers pound the strike zone because they’re more concerned about him getting on by a walk then they are of him getting an extra base hit. Most of his value, at least in the near term, will come from his fielding, and to a lesser extent, his base running.

       
  • Posts: 0 Fritz

    sorry where to hit Jimmy.

     
  • Posts: 0 MacJacMcCoy

    I agree I wouldnt mind adding Bourn for a year or even 3. But there’s one thing I dont agree with and thats where he would play. Revere is one of the best defensive fielders in the league. Which in the Phillies case would force Bourn into one of the corner out field spots. The only thing that would keep that from happening is ego imo. Sometimes guys who make more per year (in bourn and revere’s case a lot more) feel like giving up there spot for a guy who makes less is an insult. That could keep a guy like Bourn from coming to Philly. But if that didnt bother Bourn I cant see the Phillies putting him in center instead of Revere. Especially if they plan on Revere being their CF of the future.

     
  • Posts: 0 Jerry

    I can’t see giving up a 1st round pick for a 1-year outfielder. That #1 could wing up to be a top flight player or at least a blue chip prospect for use in trade later. Why mortgage several years for maybe one good year, Bourn wouldn’t be the championship difference maker anyway.

     
 
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