Ross’s Pricetag Doesn’t Match His Upgrade
Posted by Eric Seidman, Wed, December 12, 2012 03:00 PM | Comments: 71
Acquisitions, Arbitration
The Phillies acquired Ben Revere to play centerfield for the foreseeable future but question marks remain in the corner outfield spots. Odds are that Domonic Brown starts in one of the positions on an everyday basis. The other post is likely up for grabs. John Mayberry and Darin Ruf represent internal options while Josh Hamilton, Nick Swisher and Cody Ross are the oft-discussed available free agents. With plenty of money leftover after the Revere deal the Phils have an opportunity to allocate resources wisely and upgrade the rotation and bullpen in addition to the other corner outfield spot.
However, in reading between the lines, it sure seems that the Phillies are hard after Cody Ross. The former Marlin, Giant and Red Sock, who has surely struck fear into many a Phillies fan over the years, is said to be seeking a three-year deal in the $30 million range. That isn’t Hamilton money but it’s a pretty nice annual stipend for someone who doesn’t get on base all that much, doesn’t hit righties (who throw 70% of the pitches in a season) particularly well, and literally defines the term “mediocre fielder” with a career +0.2 UZR.
The idea that the team covets him, as has been reported, is alarming when better options exist on the market and a borderline equivalent internal option existed when the offseason began. To illustrate the point, let’s play everyone’s favorite game: Guess…. That…. Player!
Here are the overall stats of two players from 2010-12:
Player A: .260/.324/.434, 8.2% BB, 22.2% K, .330 wOBA, 104 wRC+, -0.3 Fld
Player B: .257/.317/.446, 7.7% BB, 21.6% K, .331 wOBA, 107 wRC+, -0.7 Fld
Almost identical, right? But wait, this gets even better…
Here are the 2010-12 splits against lefties for the very same players:
Player A: .276/.352/.530, .254 ISO, .374 wOBA, 135 wRC+
Player B: .290/.337/.544, .254 ISO, .374 wOBA, 136 wRC+
You won’t find two players with lines that more closely resemble each other than with this pair.
Now, let’s introduce a third player into the equation and compare him to Player A against right-handed pitching over the last three seasons:
Player A: .254/.315/.402, .147 ISO, .314 wOBA, 94 wRC+
Player C: .270/.334/.440, .170 ISO, .334 wOBA, 112 wRC+
Player C clearly has the better overall numbers against righties over the most recent meaningful sample of information.
Player A is Cody Ross. Player B is John Mayberry. Player C is Nate Schierholtz.
Replacing code-names with actual names, Ross and Mayberry have been near equivalent offensive players over the last three seasons, with similar fielding skills, similar excellence against opposite-handed pitching, and similar struggles against righties. Schierholtz has been far better against same-handed pitchers and is a very good fielder.
The Phillies have significant interest in Ross at something like $8-9 million per year when the Mayberry/Schierholtz platoon could have provided equal production for 1/4 of the price.
This isn’t to say that opting for Ross over that tandem is an awful decision. There is inherent value in saving a roster spot and Ross likely offers more consistency in the power department. Playing part-time roles could certainly impact Mayberry and Schierholtz negatively and it’s unclear if they would continue to produce at their respective career rates in a timeshare.
However, I don’t believe those advantages of Ross over SchierBerry are worth an additional $6-7 million premium.
This platoon is no longer an option since Schierholtz was non-tendered but it doesn’t render the comparison moot. All things considered, Ross is likely a slight upgrade over the platoons the Phillies could have used, but he is really just a much more expensive and a slightly better and more consistent version of Mayberry.
If the Phillies are looking to improve the outfield and have money to spend, they should actually improve the outfield in a big way and spend money accordingly. Paying Ross $8-9 million per year to potentially do a bit more than what could have been done for $2.25 million is suboptimal. Sure, he replaces two players who may have fallen out of favor with the fanbase and organization, but he doesn’t move the needle all the much. The Phillies can do better than a Mayberry/Schierholtz platoon, and right now that’s all Ross really represents.
Posts: 0 Don M
Eric….great job again.. what an eye-opening article! We should start a petition to get you a job in the Phillies Front Office.
Posted: 03:17 PM on December 12, 2012
Posts: 3479 Lefty
I’ll sign it.
Posted: 03:19 PM on December 12, 2012
Posts: 0 wbramh
I pray from Eric’s fingers to Ruben’s eyes.
It’s time to stop swapping mediocrity and get serious if they plan on being contenders anytime soon.
Posted: 02:21 AM on December 13, 2012
Posts: 0 Jaron B
Good points, Eric. I like Ross’ consistency over Mayberry in the power department since we put all our eggs in Howard’s basket (yet Ruf, Mayberry himself, and Brown CAN become power hitters and all three of them are righties). I would like Ross signed because (1) we didn’t get much in terms of talent for the money we saved (except for Revere), (2) Ross is cheap, (3) consistent in the power dept (where the Phils still lack), (4) his signing saves a roster spot, and (2) it would be the most ironic move any team can make after he killed us in the power dept. in the 2010 NLCS. We signed Pierre & Castillo, two players who were Phillie killers, so why not Ross?
Posted: 03:20 PM on December 12, 2012
Posts: 0 George
Brown is lefthanded. I also think it’s pretty obvious that Mayberry can only be a power hitter when he actually hits the ball, something he doesn’t do often enough, particularly against righties.
Posted: 04:15 PM on December 12, 2012
Posts: 1079 EricL
Um, Jaron, did you actually read the article above?
The point is, Ross is a very minimal upgrade to Mayberry but will cost something like 20 times more than Mayberry will for this season. (ie. He’s not “cheap,” as you say in your first parenthetical #2).
Posted: 05:32 PM on December 12, 2012
Posts: 0 Jaron B
Thanks for correcting me, George! Oops! The point was that Howard is the only 30 HR, 100 RBI hitter in the line-up. We don’t know Ruf’s, Brown’s or even (to a lesser extent) Mayberry’s ceilings. Yes, George, Mayberry needs to hit. EricL, I’d like to guarantee power until we have enough data on Brown, Ruf and Mayberry. Ross is the best choice. Yes, he won’t come too cheap, but $30MM is less than what Shane Victorino received. It’s an improvement never-the-less.
Posted: 10:39 PM on December 12, 2012
Posts: 0 Bart Shart
Eye opening. You should have shared this with Ruben and maybe we would have been set in Right field. Instead, we will overpay….again.
Posted: 03:26 PM on December 12, 2012
Posts: 0 rc
Yeah they were hoping Mayberry would break out last year, it didn’t happen but they still have him. Schierholtz…meh I’m okay not spending that money for now, better to keep that money available imo with Brown, Revere, Mayberry, Ruf and they can find someone else if needed if they aren’t able to secure a guy.
Posted: 05:03 PM on December 12, 2012
Posts: 531 schmenkman
rc, not to pick on you, but that’s three straight starting with “Yeah” :-)
Just a note on Revere. I agree, I like him, and he’ll be exciting in center and on the base paths. But I have to add that there’s a limit to how “terrific” he can be if he doesn’t develop some power, which may in fact happen with time. With no power, pitchers will continue to pound the strike zone, and no matter how disciplined he is, the only way to get on base a substantial amount will be with a very high batting average.
Posted: 05:14 PM on December 12, 2012
Posts: 0 John Matrix
Im not saying that ruben is dumb, but they have to have access to the same numbers as we do. I dont understand why they basucally let pierre and schierholtz go and created a hole, then created another one by trading werley.
Posted: 03:37 PM on December 12, 2012
Posts: 0 rc
Yeah Revere is going to be pretty terrific he is young. Worley I think was probably at the peak and had an elbow issue. I’m okay giving him up for a young guy like Revere and Revere saves them a lot of money and we hopefully have somebody at a reasonable price for 5 years although Revere has to keep his BA up.
I’m fine with giving up Schierholtz, he is a lefthanded hitter like Brown and just going to take away from Brown if he was here. Right field is Schierholtz best spot and you can always shift Dom Brown over there (I like him a little better in left I think).
Mayberry you can stick in anywhere as a defensive replacement.
Posted: 04:52 PM on December 12, 2012
Posts: 1079 EricL
The problem with not offering Schierholtz arbitration is that they lost him for nothing. He had a lot of suitors after the Phils released him, and so just by offering him arbitratoin and signing him for something like 1-1.2 million he would have been a valuable trade commodity (seeing as he signed for almost twice what he would have cost in arbitration)
The Phillies totally misjudged his value there. Even if they didn’t want him on their roster he would have been a chip to use in a trade at some point, as there are a bunch of teams that like what they see in him.
Posted: 05:29 PM on December 12, 2012
Posts: 0 rc
Good point…they could have at least gotten something close to Bonilla back. Did they ever have any explanation for that?
Posted: 06:24 PM on December 12, 2012
Posts: 0 psujoe
I was stunned when they let Schierholtz for nothing. He had decent value for $1.25 million.
Posted: 07:33 PM on December 12, 2012
Posts: 861 The Original Chuck P
Rube is not fooling anyone with Cody Ross… he’s Ty Wigginton in the sense that he plays little to no defense and has had streaks of above average amidst a lengthy below average career… let’s not make that mistake again.
Posted: 03:46 PM on December 12, 2012
Posts: 1079 EricL
Man, if they were to get Ross that’d be like having two Ty Wigginton-like replacements for Ty Wigginton, with Young being the other. Not exactly my ideal off-season.
Talk about one step forward and two steps back.
Posted: 05:24 PM on December 12, 2012
Posts: 1934 Brooks
Doesn’t anyone regard historical data as pertinent?
First off Eric, historically Wiggy has little to nothing to offer yet Young has a tremendous back round. Not only at the bat but in the clubhouse from what I have read.
Next, I would really appreciate if someone would put this Cody Ross issue abed. I agree with OCP – a streak away from having a good, fair or poor season. He has been with Boston, SF, Florida since becoming a “regular” fill-in back in 07. He signed with the Giants in 2011 for over 6 million dollars (then subsequently not considered) then signed in 2012 with the Red Sox for less than half of that money.
Sure, I would make every attempt to change my seats if the Phils got Cody as a right fielder but I think looking at his past performances the Phils front office just needs to keep looking.
Posted: 05:33 AM on December 13, 2012
Posts: 531 schmenkman
Of course historical data is pertinent, but among that data is this year, when both Young and Wiggy were poor-fielding, well-below-average hitters. The main difference was that Young got more playing time.
Can Young rebound some from that? Sure. But there are warning signs that indicate there was real decline there: he hit a lot more ground balls than ever: 53.2%, far above his previous high of 48.4% and career average of 46.4%. And he swung at more pitches (and more pitches outside the strike zone) than he ever has before.
Posted: 09:00 AM on December 13, 2012
Posts: 0 rc
Yeah Ross is overpriced and not ideal especially over 3 years but these are apples and oranges comparisons.. He is a year to year player since he is so up and down. They are maybe attracted to him because of his HR potential and you don’t have to give up the 16th pick to get him.
Unfortunately Ross had a 1.9 WAR last year and Mayberry had a 0.5 WAR. You can’t really look at Mayberry before last year. It is possible he will get better since that was the only year he played relatively full time but we all know he went long stretches when the big guys were out and didn’t do enough.
Schierholtz has never really played full time over an entire season. Ross is more proven. Mayberry and Schierholtz are younger more part time type of players though Ross isn’t a great every day player.
Not the best comparisons but they are okay to consider because Ross has had a number of solid WAR years (the only negative was his short time with the Giants and we all know what he did against us) though Ross is overpriced like everyone else.
You really have to look at Ross vs Mayberry last year but you’re keeping Mayberry anyway probably and Ross had a better year.
Posted: 04:39 PM on December 12, 2012
Posts: 1079 EricL
THANK YOU!
I’ve been saying this in the comment section on various sites for weeks, an in fact tweeted the Mayberry-Ross comparison to Corey just this morning. Great minds, and all that jazz.
I should b0lg about it or something….anyway, yes, Ross is a very slight upgrade over Mayberry, but at the price he’s looking for, that’d be a joke of a signing. Not quite as bad as trading for Mike Young, in my opinion, but still pretty bad.
Posted: 05:21 PM on December 12, 2012
Posts: 0 bacardipr
I dont follow all the news and such. I think this has to do with Swisher out pricing himself.
Posted: 05:31 PM on December 12, 2012
Posts: 0 Ken Bland
We’ll see how the supply/demand factor plays out, but I suspect that his price range when all is said and done is more in the price range Eric suggested was reasonable. You can look at what Vic got, and see some things that make Cody’s alleged asking price at least in the ballpark called Reasonable Stadium. Or you can look at the 15 mil for 2 years Ryan Ludwick supposedly got for 2 more recently, which I suspect will be more of a basis for what Cody finds one of his better offers. He gets that 3rd year for 7 mil, and it really blows Ludwick’s pacjage away by my standars because of the security of the extra year and about 30% more cash, presumably guaranteed.
Personally, I like the guy’s style. Prior quotes reflected an appreciation for Philly as a baseball town, and if you’re worried about Nick Swish’s post season record, it’s at least semi consistent to cite Ross for 2 dingers off Doc in 1 game, niot to mention what I recall as pretty good follow up the rest of the 2010 playoffs.
Pretty good sign if it goes down as a player. 9 mil per for 3 years sounds like the vault could use a new security code.
Posted: 05:45 PM on December 12, 2012
Posts: 1079 EricL
Or they could just go with JMJ, get almost the same level of production for $500,000, rather than a very slight improvement in Ross at the cost of $9,000,000.
A very slight improvement over the status-quo at the cost of nine-million dollars per year isn’t what I’d consider a “pretty good sign.” Your mileage may vary, I guess.
Posted: 06:03 PM on December 12, 2012
Posts: 0 Ken Bland
at the cost of nine-million dollars per year isn’t what I’d consider a “pretty good sign.” Your mileage may vary, I guess.”
No need to change the language I chose to express my point. Not that I write to thre masses anyway, but pretty good sign as a player speaks strictly to if I think his game and his presence are a plus AS A PLAYER. THEN I add my comment on my take on the addition of him in value terms. You can go back to that line if you’re interested.
Posted: 06:45 PM on December 12, 2012
Posts: 0 rc
Sounds like the Eagles linebacking last year…
JMJ was atrocious against RHP except some dingers. Proved he was a backup or platoon vs LHP last year.
Ruf/Nix, Revere/JMJ, Brown/JMJ
JMJ/Nix, Revere/Inciarte (both LH), Brown/Ruf
Posted: 07:12 PM on December 12, 2012
Posts: 0 Double Trouble Del
I still don’t understand why you continue to harp about the Young deal. From an economic standpoint there was no alternative better (Youkilis at 12mil?). Do you really believe Frandsen’s second half is an accurate indicator of his future body of work.
Posted: 11:14 PM on December 12, 2012
Posts: 531 schmenkman
Not to speak for EricL, but I for one am pretty certain Frandsen cannot keep up his pace from last year, but I also don’t think he has to to be almost or about as good as Young.
Frandsen’s career stats, after 836 plate appearances, are .267/.322/.364 (.686 OPS), and I think he can beat that in 2013.
Young’s stats in 2012: .277/.312/.370 (.682 OPS) — almost exactly the same as Wigginton’s. I think chances are good that Young will do better than that in 2013. I would expect an OPS in the .720s or .730s,
The only 2013 projections published so far are from Bill James, and this is what the predict for both:
Frandsen .283/.321/.374 (.695 OPS)
Young …. .294/.343/.416 (.759 OPS)
I say I would expect something lower from Young because these projections are based on inflated stats at Arlington. See related article:
http://mlb.sbnation.com/2012/12/10/3736066/texas-rangers-philadelphia-phillies-michael-young-trade-winter-meetings
So what would warrant spending an extra $6M in 2013 (which you could use for another FA), and giving up a major league reliever, and your 12th best prospect (who you could use in another package to get real improvement)?
Is the difference between ~.700 OPS and ~.730 OPS enough to justify those costs?
Speaking for myself, I don’t think it was worth it.
Posted: 11:31 PM on December 12, 2012
Posts: 531 schmenkman
Jessica Savitch and now Phyllis George? Ken is missing the ’70s, I think.
Posted: 06:11 PM on December 12, 2012
Posts: 0 Ken Bland
Here’s a guy, as the old Cub broadcaster used to say in his best Budweiser spirited mood, that thinks he’s got an eye for recognzizing women.
We’ll see about that, he concluded, before flippinmg into time for another photog mode.
For 2 brownie points, and ther right to admonish mefor me to if I ever question how sabermetrics earned the acronym SABR when the Society for Baseball Research didn’t seem to do anything to lose the privelege of being called it, as the Isley Brothers would paraphrasingly say, Who’s THIS lady?
Posted: 06:49 PM on December 12, 2012
Posts: 2541 Chuck A.
Ken changes his picture more than some women change their clothes..
Posted: 06:50 PM on December 12, 2012
Posts: 0 George
Schmenkman:
Looking at this latest pic used by Ken, I’d say he has a pretty good reason for missing the ’70′s. I hope he posts more like this one.
Posted: 07:27 PM on December 12, 2012
Posts: 531 schmenkman
Got me. I don’t know, but I’m guessing it’s more recent than the ’70s.
Posted: 08:26 PM on December 12, 2012
Posts: 0 Double Trouble Del
I was all for Ross as an OF option when the off-season began, primarily because I watched his season on NESN. It seemed he always got a big hit in the games that I watched. I’ve gradually gone cold on that idea and this article re-affirms that trend. If the Phillies were looking for “second-tier” OF help I’d much prefer Swisher.
Posted: 06:23 PM on December 12, 2012
Posts: 0 Nate
Ross would be a good sign for the phillies. He or Swisher are the same caliber player when produceing home runs and RBI. They baoth batted around the .270 mark. Either they sign Swisher or Ross they’ll add a power bat and help their club.
Posted: 09:57 PM on December 12, 2012
Posts: 531 schmenkman
Swisher is quite a bit better than Ross. As Eric outlined, Ross is actually much closer to Mayberry than to Swisher.
Over the last 3 years:
Mayberry . .257/.317/.446 (.763 OPS), 107 wRC+, 3.0 WAR in 788 PAs
Ross ……. .260/.324/.434 (.758 OPS), 104 wRC+, 5.7 WAR in 1558 PAs
Swisher .. .274/.366/.478 (.824 OPS), 129 wRC+, 11.9 WAR in 1894 PAs
JMJ’s numbers are helped a bit by not facing as many RHPs, but if you adjust them to assume he faces the same number of right-handed pitchers a full time player would see, his numbers dip some, but Ross would still be much closer to JMJ than to Swisher.
Mayberry . .250/.313/.424 (.738 OPS)
The difference of course is that Swisher would cost the Phillies their 1st round pick (16th overall), whereas Ross wouldn’t.
Agree with Eric S and Eric L — Ross’s improvement would not be worth $9 or $10 mil a year.
Posted: 10:40 PM on December 12, 2012
Posts: 0 JohnMatrix
If you look back too, the phillies had pence, a RH bat, traded him for Scheirholtz and that catcher, and now have let Scheirholtz walk. So they really have pissed away 2 right fielders and hve nothing to show for it.
Posted: 10:00 PM on December 12, 2012
Posts: 0 psujoe
A little disturbing when you break out the net of the Pence deals:
Cosart, Singleton, Santana and Josh Zeid
for Joseph, Rosen, 1 year of Pence and 1/2 year of Scherholtlz.
Totally unbalanced.
Take another prospect if you’re not going to hold onto Scheirholtz or get something for him. You can’t piss away assets like this.
Posted: 10:20 PM on December 12, 2012
Posts: 0 joepa
Great article. Does anyone think we should be going after Swisher? If not Ross and not Swisher, and if we don’t want to pay big $$$ for Hamilton – are there other viable optoins?
Also, anyone know what happed to The Dipsy? I miss his opinions. Didn’t alway agree, but I’d enjoyed hearing his opinions.
Posted: 10:04 PM on December 12, 2012
Posts: 0 psujoe
Let’s break out the net of the Lee deals:
Marson, Knapp, Donald and Corrasco
for
Aumont, Gillies, Ramirez and a 3rd a year of lee.( I changed half o be a 3rd).
Too early to tell, but I like Aumont and Gillies out of all them.
Posted: 10:29 PM on December 12, 2012
Posts: 0 psujoe
Ross at $9 million AAV would be a terrible pickup. I won’t keep harping on letting Scheirholtz go for nothing unless they sign Ross 3/$27. That would be a crime, IMO. Swisher is superior to Ross, but I would think the min would be 4/$56 if that and the 1st rd pick.
At this point I’d rather just go into the season and see how Ruf and Brown do with JMJ as 4 and #5 ?
Posted: 10:50 PM on December 12, 2012
Posts: 1056 Manny
Thank you for this. I agree wholeheartedly.
And it reinforces the idea that the Phillies need a BIG upgrade in the outfield if they actually want it to make a difference. That upgrade is Hamilton. We’re not gonna contend with Cody Ross out there… barring some miraculous comeback from Howard, J-roll, et al.
Posted: 11:29 PM on December 12, 2012
Posts: 442 Bruce
I see the latest “rumor” is about Cody Ross. I don’t care to see another Ty Wigginton type player on the team. I rather use the reported amount of $30 million (for 3 years) that Cody wants for a higher priority of filling a need in the rotation and 8th inning reliever. Another words, I agree with the few here that rather see the Phillies management go with internal options of Ruff, Brown and Mayberry Jr.
I would like to see if Amaro would have an interest in a pitcher that can provide options as a starter and reliever. His name? Drumroll please (chuckles). 32 year old righthander, Brett Myers! He can be that 4th starter and/or 8th inning reliever plus the role of closer to
give Papelbon a rest now and then,
So instead of spending $30 million on someone like Ross (ugh!), I would offer that same amount to Myers for 2 years. Come on, Amaro, Myers’ agent is waiting for a phone call.
Posted: 11:36 PM on December 12, 2012
Posts: 0 psujoe
Ashame they couldn’t work out a deal for Willingham in the Revere deal. I’d have to think for Willingham and Revere:
Worley
Biddle
Brown
Valle
?
Posted: 12:38 AM on December 13, 2012
Posts: 0 Ryne Duren
psujoe! Biddle? c-mon man !
Posted: 10:10 AM on December 13, 2012
Posts: 74 Tom
Just say “NO” to Ross JMJ!! He’s not worth it at $9 mil/yr! He asking too much considering the only time that he shined was in the 2010 playoffs and he can’t hit RHP to save his life!! I’d rather see RAJ swing another trade than overspend for this free agent class!!
Posted: 02:01 AM on December 13, 2012
Posts: 74 Tom
Sorry…I meant just say no RAJ not JMJ!! Acronym issues!!
Posted: 02:02 AM on December 13, 2012
Posts: 0 rc
We want to go with .712 ops Brown, .695 ops Mayberry, and .675 ops Revere and we all hate Michael Young.
Better start praying Hamilton doesn’t want to stay in Texas.
Posted: 02:22 AM on December 13, 2012
Posts: 0 schmenkman
@rc, it’s Frandsen whose relevant there, but OPS do you expect from Young agter this year’s .682?
Posted: 05:35 AM on December 13, 2012
Posts: 531 schmenkman
*but what OPS do you expect from Young after this year’s .682?
Posted: 07:29 AM on December 13, 2012
Posts: 0 wbramh
Fact: The Braves and Nats will both be better teams this coming season and they were good enough last year to beat a Phillies team (IMO) with or without Howard and Utley.
The Dodgers and Cincinnati will also be better teams – maybe the Giants, as well.
If the Fightins want to get back into contention they should stop entertaining replacing old mediocrity with new mediocrity and take a serious shot at landing Hamilton. They desperately need a guy who can drive in 100+ runs and hit the leather off the ball . That would be Josh Hamilton – and he can hit left-handed pitching which even a healthy Ryan Howard can’t do.
Also, Revere becomes a better mesh in center if the right fielder can hit 40 home runs for the team and only Hamilton has that capability.
Posted: 02:08 AM on December 13, 2012
Posts: 0 hk
Just to be clear, that the Braves and Nats will both better teams this coming season is an opinion, not a Fact.
The Braves have lost more WAR from last season’s team (Chipper Jones, David Ross, Michael Bourn and Tommy Hanson) than they’ve acquired (Gerald Laird, BJ Upton and Jordan Walden). They should be better from having a full year of Medlen and Simmons, but I am not so sure they’ve improved.
The Nats have replaced Edwin Jackson with Dan Haren. If Haren is healthy and regains his velocity, that’s an upgrade. If not, that’s a downgrade. They also haven’t re-signed Adam LaRoche yet and, even if they do, he’s no guarantee to repeat his career best season in 2012.
The Phils, on the other hand, went 44-34 with both Howard and Utley on the 25 man roster. If they are both healthy – and I get that that is a big if – the Phils stand to be improved. It is worth noting that Utley was healthy enough to start 76 of the team’s last 78 games and that he claims his off-season program this year has him feeling much better than where he was 12 months ago.
Posted: 10:24 AM on December 13, 2012
Posts: 0 Ken Bland
I guess sometimes the offseason leads to trite comments, so I’ll skip the apologies. And it’s niot like I hope this doesn’t work out positively, but since hk is hellbent (twice mentioned now, which probably doesn’t qualify as hellbent, maybe I’m just hellbent on this point) on translating WAR results to pre season feelings (that’s his perrogative, sufficer to say we can skip my view on that for fear of engaging in dialogue that will be a trip to center city nowhere, let alone representing my opinion being taken as attempt to dissuade different thinkers), here’s reality,
hk states…
“.his off-season program this year has him feeling much better than where he was 12 months ago”.
Now that statement is true. An article in I guess Philly.com about 2 weeks ago quoted Chase’s agent as saying he was a “man on a mission.”
And silence, a year ago doesn’t necessarily mean the opposite was true, but to my recollection, like the year before when Chase also played a half year, there were no reports on his winter, so it seemed at least fairly safe to assume he’d be okay in 2012. He wasn’t. Spare me the jibberish about how great Utley was when he actually played last year, if he was Chase Utley in anyone’s view, their opinion is different than mine. Not that he was bad, mind you, just not what this club pretty much needs to kick ass.
The bottom line is it’s truly great if he is as good as indicated. Personally, although even pre season picks don’t mean jack, it’s my feeling that if you’er looking for optimism based on Chase’s off season, you might be ahead of advised pace.
And not that I’m chopping my arm while writing this blurb, but I’ll end with mention of a Brave I think is terrific that I assume will contribute pretty mightily in ’13 that got off to a real good start last year before injury dragged his season to an end. Though I haven’t a clue if he’ll be ready Opening Day. Brandon Beachy.
Anyway, it’s just watercooler rhetoric, me included, but I think the Atlanta club looks pretty good. Not that the Phils don’t. Just I wouldn’t walk around with great confidence on the Phils standing higher at ’13′s end. Hope so, though.
Posted: 11:31 AM on December 13, 2012
Posts: 0 hk
“Spare me the jibberish about how great Utley was when he actually played last year, if he was Chase Utley in anyone’s view, their opinion is different than mine.”
No Ken, he was not the Chase Utley of 2005-2010. However, my point was not to compare Chase Utley to his old self, it was to compare him to what the Phils got from the 2B position over the first 76 games of last season. The Phils will be improved next year if they get 140 games of the 2012 version of Chase, a version by the way that produced the 2nd best OBP and tied for 4th best SLG of all MLB 2B’s last year.
Posted: 12:54 PM on December 13, 2012
Posts: 531 schmenkman
Right: MVP-level Utley is gone and not coming back.
What we are left with is an elite second baseman. That’s all. And with Utley as diminished-but-still-great as he was last year, the Phillies played at a 95-win pace in the second half.
Posted: 01:02 PM on December 13, 2012
Posts: 0 wbramh
Also, I would let Ruf and Brown battle it out in left or platoon them there until we find out (once and for all) if either of them is sure-fire MLB quality.
Both scare the hell out of me in right.
My kingdom for another Johnny Callison, but I’d happily settle for Hamilton.
Posted: 02:17 AM on December 13, 2012
Posts: 1934 Brooks
wbramh – nobody here wants to see a battle. The consensus here is “Let Brown have a full season to prove himself” – no battles, just hand over the starting job and he’ll live up to that hype he brought the team 3 seasons ago.
Posted: 05:41 AM on December 13, 2012
Posts: 0 Ryne Duren
i’m getting tired of hearing this platoon stuff ruf/brown in left! browns has had a shot and he’s not all that! he’s not bad, he’s just not good. ruf on the other hand had an even split last year at reading. he hit 38 dingers 19 vs. RH and 19 vs LH pitchers! he came up to the phils and hit 3 then went to a winter league and hit another 10? where’s the platoon? let him platoon with himself. if we can’t sign hamilton? screw ross, swisher. let JMJ and brown platoon in right, save the money for sanchez and an 8th inning guy.
Posted: 10:18 AM on December 13, 2012
Posts: 0 Pete
These comments kill me. Brown is “not good” yet Ruf could be the second coming. Brown is over one year YOUNGER than Ruf. When Ruf was Brown’s age, he was wrapping a year in Clearwater. Not everyone is Mike Trout, so give Brown a little time. When Utley was Brown’s age, he hit .230 on the Phillies. Just because the FO rushed him into the bigs and played yo-yo with him does not mean he won’t figure it out in the next year or two.
Also, showing Ruf has 19 home runs against both RHP and LHP makes the reverse point you are attempting. 70% of the league is RHP, meaning he was half as effective at hitting home runs against RHP as LHP per AB. His BA split last year was .380s/.280s in AA, which projects to Mayberry type struggles against RHP in the Majors. His K% was 20% against RHP as opposed to 10% against LHP. I’m definitely excited to give the kid a shot, but he’s definitely not an everyday player in MLB based on those splits in AA of all places, where he was a few years older than most of the prospects he played against.
Posted: 11:20 AM on December 19, 2012
Posts: 0 Betasigmadeltashag
8 million is too much for Ross Hell 3 million is too much for him. I would rather see Ruff Mayberry Brown and if need be change in mid season The offense is going to be better with a full season of Howard and fully recovered. Also Utley should be ready to go. So the offense will be better. Ross does not improve this team. Saying that I would not mind signing Hamilton
Posted: 07:48 AM on December 13, 2012
Posts: 2541 Chuck A.
IF you could get Cody Ross for $3M (never would happen, but just hypothetical) you do it. We as Phillies fans can’t let an image that we don’t like (Ross with the Giants in 2010, Ross dancing around, Ross being annoying, etc.) let us cloud our view of what our needs are. Just because Ross got under our skin a few years ago doesn’t mean that he will if he dons red pinnies.
All that said, at this point, I want them to go for it and sign Hamilton. Let’s take a chance. He’s a real game-changer and this lineup needs that.
Posted: 08:22 AM on December 13, 2012
Posts: 0 brooks
Chuck A, you just listed all the reasons not to pick this guy up – starting with the letter A for Annoying.
Posted: 08:28 AM on December 13, 2012
Posts: 2541 Chuck A.
He was only annoying because he played for the Giants and faced us in that God-awful series.. Cody Ross isn’t a bad guy along the same lines as Jose Ray-ass, for instance.
Posted: 08:36 AM on December 13, 2012
Posts: 0 George
Amaro might like Ross, but I’ve yet to read that he likes Ross at $7-9 M per year, or for three years. Interest has it’s limits. The Phils have been linked with other outfielders, too, and have even considered a platoon or two.
I think fans here might be overly worried, although I’ll admit that Amaro seems to go after some questionable players.
Ross is okay, but not at his asking price. But it’s important to note that asking price is usually a bit higher than signing price. Rollins wanted five years and didn’t get it. Madson wanted a king’s ransom last year and didn’t get it. Pence would have been guaranteed a small fortune through arbitration. He was traded.
Posted: 09:48 AM on December 13, 2012
Posts: 0 Ken Bland
Well stated top to finish. I know this won’t sound complimentary, but that represents the way I often wind up interpreting a lot of what George said. George is probably already calling 911 having been clued in on the alleged similarity.
Posted: 11:34 AM on December 13, 2012
Posts: 1 delfazio
I don’t know why they are so dead set on getting another outfielder like a Ross, BJ Upton..Harston. Mayberry as an everyday starter would likely hit 250/25hr’s and only cost $1,000,000 a year. The last thing this team needs is another batter that can’t hit over 240 and cost $12,000,000 a year.
Posted: 10:27 AM on December 13, 2012
Posts: 0 Rich
If they trade Shoreholtz I will be upset. He’s one of their best outfielders. Maybe they can try and get Ichiro in here. Seattle is a terrible place to play anyway. George Hamilton is way too expensive too. I realized there are not many options, but come on Adam! Someone go talk to Frank and tell him to stop with the no pants jokes..ha, ha, ha!
Posted: 11:44 AM on December 13, 2012
Posts: 316 Ian Riccaboni
Rich – Schierholtz was non-tendered (not offered a contract) and has already signed with the Cubs and Ichiro is about to sign with the Yankees.
Posted: 11:56 AM on December 13, 2012
Posts: 0 Mike in NJ
Cody Ross does absolutely nothing for me. I’d rather platoon JMJ and Brown in RF and use that some of that money for an elite setup man or a half decent starter. Not even sure I’d want Swisher since he would cost even more money plus our 1st round pick. If you’re willing to give up that 1st round pick, go for Hamilton.
Posted: 12:38 PM on December 13, 2012
Posts: 0 Ryne Duren
this just in fellas, hamilton signs with ANGELS 5 YEARS!
Posted: 02:41 PM on December 13, 2012
Posts: 0 Around the NL East: Michael Young Arrives in Philly, R.A. Dickey Angst
[...] Phillies also keeping their eye out on Cody Ross – Phillies Nation Listen, ignore all the numbers, the wOBA, the OBP, and all the other sabermetric nonsense: Cody Ross is a Braves killer. To Nationals fans, Cody Ross is a Nationals killer. Some in Philly might also consider him a Phillies killer. Out of all the outfielders that the Phillies have shown interest in, Cody Ross is the one I’d like to see the least. Hopefully his demands for three-year, $ 30M scares even the Phillies off. [...]
Posted: 07:56 AM on December 16, 2012